Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns (summary section only)

Recently, focus of real estate investment has expanded from the building-specific level to the aggregate portfolio level. The portfolio perspective requires investment analysis for real estate which is comparable with that of other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Thus, despite its distinctive features, such as heterogeneity, high unit value, illiquidity and the use of valuations to measure performance, real estate should not be considered in isolation. This means that techniques which are widely used for other assets classes can also be applied to real estate. An important part of investment strategies which support decisions on multi-asset portfolios is identifying the fundamentals of movements in property rents and returns, and predicting them on the basis of these fundamentals. The main objective of this thesis is to find the key drivers and the best methods for modelling and forecasting property rents and returns in markets which have experienced structural changes. The Finnish property market, which is a small European market with structural changes and limited property data, is used as a case study. The findings in the thesis show that is it possible to use modern econometric tools for modelling and forecasting property markets. The thesis consists of an introduction part and four essays. Essays 1 and 3 model Helsinki office rents and returns, and assess the suitability of alternative techniques for forecasting these series. Simple time series techniques are able to account for structural changes in the way markets operate, and thus provide the best forecasting tool. Theory-based econometric models, in particular error correction models, which are constrained by long-run information, are better for explaining past movements in rents and returns than for predicting their future movements. Essay 2 proceeds by examining the key drivers of rent movements for several property types in a number of Finnish property markets. The essay shows that commercial rents in local markets can be modelled using national macroeconomic variables and a panel approach. Finally, Essay 4 investigates whether forecasting models can be improved by accounting for asymmetric responses of office returns to the business cycle. The essay finds that the forecast performance of time series models can be improved by introducing asymmetries, and the improvement is sufficient to justify the extra computational time and effort associated with the application of these techniques.

The Day of the Week Effect and Option Pricing - A Study of the German Option Market

The use of different time units in option pricing may lead to inconsistent estimates of time decay and spurious jumps in implied volatilities. Different time units in the pricing model leads to different implied volatilities although the option price itself is the same.The chosen time unit should make it necessary to adjust the volatility parameter only when there are some fundamental reasons for it and not due to wrong specifications of the model. This paper examined the effects of option pricing using different time hypotheses and empirically investigated which time frame the option markets in Germany employ over weekdays. The paper specifically tries to get a picture of how the market prices options. The results seem to verify that the German market behaves in a fashion that deviates from the most traditional time units in option pricing, calendar and trading days. The study also showed that the implied volatility of Thursdays was somewhat higher and thus differed from the pattern of other days of the week. Using a GARCH model to further investigate the effect showed that although a traditional tests, like the analysis of variance, indicated a negative return for Thursday during the same period as the implied volatilities used, this was not supported using a GARCH model.

Document page layout analysis using Harris corner points

Extraction of text areas from the document images with complex content and layout is one of the challenging tasks. Few texture based techniques have already been proposed for extraction of such text blocks. Most of such techniques are greedy for computation time and hence are far from being realizable for real time implementation. In this work, we propose a modification to two of the existing texture based techniques to reduce the computation. This is accomplished with Harris corner detectors. The efficiency of these two textures based algorithms, one based on Gabor filters and other on log-polar wavelet signature, are compared. A combination of Gabor feature based texture classification performed on a smaller set of Harris corner detected points is observed to deliver the accuracy and efficiency.

A modified least squares algorithm to treat associations in liquid alloys

The associated model for binary systems has been modified to include volume effects and excess entropy arising from preferential interactions between the associate and the free atoms or between the free atoms. Equations for thermodynamic mixing functions have been derived. An optimization procedure using a modified conjugate gradient method has been used to evaluate the enthalpy and entropy interaction energies, the free energy of dissociation of the complex, its temperature dependance and the size of the associate. An expression for the concentration—concentration structure factor [Scc (0)] has been deduced from the modified associated solution model. The analysis has been applied to the thermodynamic mixing functions of liquid Ga-Te alloys at 1120 K, believed to contain Ga2Te3 associates. It is observed that the modified associated solution model incorporating volume effects and terms for the temperature dependance of interaction energies, describes the thermodynamic properties of Ga-Te system satisfactorily.

Effects of electron correlations in conjugated organic molecules and solids

The discrepancies between the non-interacting models and experimental results for conjugated systems is highlighted in this brief review. The interacting model hamiltonians correctly give the forbidden singlet state below the optical gap in polyenes and also explain both the nonvanishing optical gap in polyacetylenes and the vanishing optical gap in symmetric cyanine dyes. The negative spin densities in polyene radicals is also understood in terms of a correlated picture. The role of electron-electron interactions in other strongly correlated systems, such as polydiacetylene and mixed and segregated stack charge transfer solids, are also briefly discussed.

A possible mechanism for high-temperature superconductivity: Application to Bi and Tl compounds

We applied our previous theory of high temperature superconductivity to Bi and Tl compounds in this paper. The theory involves the role of electron pairs in the spin singlet of species Xequal-or-greater, slanted (Bi3+ (6S2), Tl(6S2) etc.) and their virtual excited state X0 (Bi5+ (6s0), Tl3+ (6s0), etc.) in the pairing interaction of quasiholes. Bi and Tl species provide additional channels of kind (Xequal-or-greater, slanted left angle bracket X0) owing to the charge fluctuations. We treated the two states of these species like a two-level Bose system. We used the pseudospin formalism to calculate the expression for the critical temperature in this paper. We also calculated numerically the value of Tc for Bi and Tl compounds and found a good agreement between theory and experiment.

Development of a low-cost portable colorimeter for the estimation of fluoride in drinking water

People in many countries are affected by fluorosis owing to the high levels of fluoride in drinking water. An inexpensive method for estimating the concentration of the fluoride ion in drinking water would be helpful in identifying safe sources of water and also in monitoring the performance of defluoridation techniques. For this purpose, a simple, inexpensive, and portable colorimeter has been developed in the present work. It is used in conjunction with the SPADNS method, which shows a color change in the visible region on addition of water containing fluoride to a reagent solution. Groundwater samples were collected from different parts of the state of Karnataka, India and analysed for fluoride. The results obtained using the colorimeter and the double beam spectrophotometer agreed fairly well. The costs of the colorimeter and of the chemicals required per test were about Rs. 250 (US$ 5) and Rs. 2.5 (US$ 0.05), respectively. In addition, the cost of the chemicals required for constructing the calibration curve was about Rs. 15 (US$ 0.3). (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fractional-factorial design of a porous-carbon fuel-cell electrode

The use of fractional-factorial methods in the optimization of porous-carbon electrode structure is discussed with respect to weight-loss of carbon during gas treatment, weight and mixing time of binder, compaction temperature, time and pressure, and pressure of feed gas. The experimental optimization of an air electrode in alkaline solution is described.

Plasmid DNA mediated transfer of the herpes simplex virus thymidine kinase gene to a new bromodeoxyuridine resistant variant of human primary lung carcinoma cells

A human primary lung carcinoma cell line (HPL-R1) established from the tumor biopsy of a lung cancer patient, lacking in cytochrome P1-450 [aryl hydrocarbon (benzo[a]pyrene) hydroxylase (AHH)], was cloned and used to obtain variants deficient in the expression of thymidine-kinase via treatment with 5-bromo-2'-deoxyuridine, and selection for drug resistance phenotype. The variant cell line, precharacterized for thymidine kinase negative phenotype, was transfected with the thymidine kinase gene bearing p R-tk and px1-tk plasmids. Transfections from both the plasmids, demonstrated a frequency of 5.5 X 10(-5). The transfectants showed a 76-100% retention of the transferred phenotype. These data suggest that transfection in variant human cells can approach significant levels of stability observed with rodent cell recipients.

Simplified Analysis of Steady-State Performance of a Voltage Controlled Induction Motor Drive

Utilizing a circuit model [1, 2] of an induction motor, a simplified analysis of steady state performance of a voltage controlled induction motor (VCIM) drive is described in this paper. By solving a set of nonlinear algebraic equations which describe the VCIM drive under steady operation, the operating variables such as constant components of torque, rotor flux linkages, fundamental components of stator voltage and current and phase angle are obtained for any given value of slip, triggering angle and supply voltage.

Structure-Reactivity Correlations of Benzoin Alkyl Ethers. Structures of 2-Methoxy-1,2-diphenylethanone (I) and 2-Isopropoxy-1,2-diphenylethanone (II)

(I): C15H1402, Mr---226.27, triclinic, Pi,a=8.441 (2), b= 10.276 (1), c= 15.342 (2)A, a=91.02 (2), ~ t= 79.26 (2), y= 105.88 (2) °, V=1256.8 (4)A 3, Z=4, D,,= 1.209 (flotation in KI),D x - 1.195 g cm -3, #(Mo, 2 = 0.7107/~) = 0.44 cm -~,F(000) = 480, T= 293 K, R -- 0.060 for 1793 significant reflections. (II): C~THlsO2, Mr= 254.83, orthorhombic, Pca21, a=8.476 (1); b= 16.098 (3), c=10.802(3)A, V=1473.9 (5) A s, Z=4, Dm=1.161 (flotation in KI), Dx= 1.148gem -3, /~(Mo, 2=0.7107 A) =0.41 cm -~, F(000) = 544, T= 293 K, R = 0.071 for 867 significant reflections. Both (I) and (II) crystallize in a cisoid conformation for the carbonyl group and alkoxy groups. Compounds (I) and (II) are photostable on irradiation in the solid state in spite of the favourable conformation of the functional groups for intramolecular H abstraction. Absence of photoreaction of (I)and (II) in the solid state is rationalized in the light of unfavourable intramolecular geometry.

Role of barriers to conformational changes in ketones undergoing the Norrish type II process

The Norrish type II process is examined in three ketones containing primary, secondary and tertiary C---H bonds in the γ position relative to the carbonyl groups; the MINDO/3 semiempirical self-consistent field (SCF) molecular orbital (MO) method was used with complete geometry optimization in the unrestricted Hartree—Fock frame for the open-shell species. Results show that barriers to conformational change in ketones play an important role in the triplet reaction.