The estimation of tuberculosis transmission parameters using ABC and MCMC methods

The aim of this work is to apply approximate Bayesian computation in combination with Marcov chain Monte Carlo methods in order to estimate the parameters of tuberculosis transmission. The methods are applied to San Francisco data and the results are compared with the outcomes of previous works. Moreover, a methodological idea with the aim to reduce computational time is also described. Despite the fact that this approach is proved to work in an appropriate way, further analysis is needed to understand and test its behaviour in different cases. Some related suggestions to its further enhancement are described in the corresponding chapter.

Net working capital estimation model in project business

The objective of this Master’s thesis is to develop a model which estimates net working capital (NWC) monthly in a year period. The study is conducted by a constructive research which uses a case study. The estimation model is designed in the need of one case company which operates in project business. Net working capital components should be linked together by an automatic model and estimated individually, including advanced components of NWC for example POC receivables. Net working capital estimation model of this study contains three parts: output template, input template and calculation model. The output template gets estimate values automatically from the input template and the calculation model. Into the input template estimate values of more stable NWC components are inputted manually. The calculate model gets estimate values for major affecting components automatically from the systems of a company by using a historical data and made plans. As a precondition for the functionality of the estimation calculation is that sales are estimated in one year period because the sales are linked to all NWC components.

Power efficiency estimation and simulation of different control methods for the rotary screw compressor

Nowadays the energy efficiency has become one of the most concerned topics. Compressors are the equipment, which is very common in industry. Moreover, they tend to operate during long cycles and therefore even small decrease in power consumption can significantly reduce electricity costs during the year. And therefore it is important to investigate ways of increasing the energy efficiency of the compressors. In the thesis rotary screw compressor alongside with different control approaches is described. Simulation models for various control types of rotary screw compressor are developed. Analysis of laboratory equipment is conducted and results are compared with simulation. Suggestions of the real laboratory equipment improvement are given.

Fuzzy real option analysis in patent related decision making and patent valuation

The shift towards a knowledge-based economy has inevitably prompted the evolution of patent exploitation. Nowadays, patent is more than just a prevention tool for a company to block its competitors from developing rival technologies, but lies at the very heart of its strategy for value creation and is therefore strategically exploited for economic pro t and competitive advantage. Along with the evolution of patent exploitation, the demand for reliable and systematic patent valuation has also reached an unprecedented level. However, most of the quantitative approaches in use to assess patent could arguably fall into four categories and they are based solely on the conventional discounted cash flow analysis, whose usability and reliability in the context of patent valuation are greatly limited by five practical issues: the market illiquidity, the poor data availability, discriminatory cash-flow estimations, and its incapability to account for changing risk and managerial flexibility. This dissertation attempts to overcome these impeding barriers by rationalizing the use of two techniques, namely fuzzy set theory (aiming at the first three issues) and real option analysis (aiming at the last two). It commences with an investigation into the nature of the uncertainties inherent in patent cash flow estimation and claims that two levels of uncertainties must be properly accounted for. Further investigation reveals that both levels of uncertainties fall under the categorization of subjective uncertainty, which differs from objective uncertainty originating from inherent randomness in that uncertainties labelled as subjective are highly related to the behavioural aspects of decision making and are usually witnessed whenever human judgement, evaluation or reasoning is crucial to the system under consideration and there exists a lack of complete knowledge on its variables. Having clarified their nature, the application of fuzzy set theory in modelling patent-related uncertain quantities is effortlessly justified. The application of real option analysis to patent valuation is prompted by the fact that both patent application process and the subsequent patent exploitation (or commercialization) are subject to a wide range of decisions at multiple successive stages. In other words, both patent applicants and patentees are faced with a large variety of courses of action as to how their patent applications and granted patents can be managed. Since they have the right to run their projects actively, this flexibility has value and thus must be properly accounted for. Accordingly, an explicit identification of the types of managerial flexibility inherent in patent-related decision making problems and in patent valuation, and a discussion on how they could be interpreted in terms of real options are provided in this dissertation. Additionally, the use of the proposed techniques in practical applications is demonstrated by three fuzzy real option analysis based models. In particular, the pay-of method and the extended fuzzy Black-Scholes model are employed to investigate the profitability of a patent application project for a new process for the preparation of a gypsum-fibre composite and to justify the subsequent patent commercialization decision, respectively; a fuzzy binomial model is designed to reveal the economic potential of a patent licensing opportunity.

Estimation procedures affect the center of pressure frequency analysis

Even though frequency analysis of body sway is widely applied in clinical studies, the lack of standardized procedures concerning power spectrum estimation may provide unreliable descriptors. Stabilometric tests were applied to 35 subjects (20-51 years, 54-95 kg, 1.6-1.9 m) and the power spectral density function was estimated for the anterior-posterior center of pressure time series. The median frequency was compared between power spectra estimated according to signal partitioning, sampling rate, test duration, and detrending methods. The median frequency reliability for different test durations was assessed using the intraclass correlation coefficient. When increasing number of segments, shortening test duration or applying linear detrending, the median frequency values increased significantly up to 137%. Even the shortest test duration provided reliable estimates as observed with the intraclass coefficient (0.74-0.89 confidence interval for a single 20-s test). Clinical assessment of balance may benefit from a standardized protocol for center of pressure spectral analysis that provides an adequate relationship between resolution and variance. An algorithm to estimate center of pressure power density spectrum is also proposed.

A simple test of muscle coactivation estimation using electromyography

In numerous motor tasks, muscles around a joint act coactively to generate opposite torques. A variety of indexes based on electromyography signals have been presented in the literature to quantify muscle coactivation. However, it is not known how to estimate it reliably using such indexes. The goal of this study was to test the reliability of the estimation of muscle coactivation using electromyography. Isometric coactivation was obtained at various muscle activation levels. For this task, any coactivation measurement/index should present the maximal score (100% of coactivation). Two coactivation indexes were applied. In the first, the antagonistic muscle activity (the lower electromyographic signal between two muscles that generate opposite joint torques) is divided by the mean between the agonistic and antagonistic muscle activations. In the second, the ratio between antagonistic and agonistic muscle activation is calculated. Moreover, we computed these indexes considering different electromyographic amplitude normalization procedures. It was found that the first algorithm, with all signals normalized by their respective maximal voluntary coactivation, generates the index closest to the true value (100%), reaching 92 ± 6%. In contrast, the coactivation index value was 82 ± 12% when the second algorithm was applied and the electromyographic signal was not normalized (P < 0.04). The new finding of the present study is that muscle coactivation is more reliably estimated if the EMG signals are normalized by their respective maximal voluntary contraction obtained during maximal coactivation prior to dividing the antagonistic muscle activity by the mean between the agonistic and antagonistic muscle activations.

Comparison of Model-Based Flow Rate Estimation Methods in Frequency-Converter-Driven Pumps and Fans

Fluid handling systems such as pump and fan systems are found to have a significant potential for energy efficiency improvements. To deliver the energy saving potential, there is a need for easily implementable methods to monitor the system output. This is because information is needed to identify inefficient operation of the fluid handling system and to control the output of the pumping system according to process needs. Model-based pump or fan monitoring methods implemented in variable speed drives have proven to be able to give information on the system output without additional metering; however, the current model-based methods may not be usable or sufficiently accurate in the whole operation range of the fluid handling device. To apply model-based system monitoring in a wider selection of systems and to improve the accuracy of the monitoring, this paper proposes a new method for pump and fan output monitoring with variable-speed drives. The method uses a combination of already known operating point estimation methods. Laboratory measurements are used to verify the benefits and applicability of the improved estimation method, and the new method is compared with five previously introduced model-based estimation methods. According to the laboratory measurements, the new estimation method is the most accurate and reliable of the model-based estimation methods.

Stability studies and shelf life estimation of a soy-based dessert

This work is aimed at evaluating the physicochemical, physical, chromatic, microbiological, and sensorial stability of a non-dairy dessert elaborated with soy, guava juice, and oligofructose for 60 days at refrigerated storage as well as to estimate its shelf life time. The titrable acidity, pH, instrumental color, water activity, ascorbic acid, and physical stability were measured. Panelists (n = 50) from the campus community used a hedonic scale to assess the acceptance, purchase intent, creaminess, flavor, taste, acidity, color, and overall appearance of the dessert during 60 days. The data showed that the parameters differed significantly (p < 0.05) from the initial time, and they could be fitted in mathematical equations with coefficient of determination above 71%, aiming to consider them suitable for prediction purposes. Creaminess and acceptance did not differ statistically in the 60-day period; taste, flavor, and acidity kept a suitable hedonic score during storage. Notwithstanding, the sample showed good physical stability against gravity and presented more than 15% of the Brazilian Daily Recommended Value of copper, iron, and ascorbic acid. The product shelf life estimation found was 79 days considering the overall acceptance, acceptance index and purchase intent.

Psychophysical estimation of acid intensity and determination of sweet-acid interaction in a fish paste containing glycerol

In a fish paste made with cooked Brazilian flathead (Percophis brasiliensis), glycerol (17%), sodium chloride (1.5%) and potassium sorbate (0.1%) the following acid percentages: 0.2; 0.4; 0.6; 0.8, 1 and 1.5% w/w were incorporated to determine the relationship between added acetic acid and the sensorially perceived intensity, and the effects of the combination of sweet-acid tastes. Tests for paired comparison, ranking and structured verbal scales for sweet and acid attributes and psychophysical test were carried out. There was a perceptible difference among samples for differences of 0.4 units of acid concentration. Samples indicated as sweeter by 89.47% of the judges were those containing a lesser acid concentration. A reduction in glycerol sweetness when increasing acid levels was observed. Acetic acid reduced the sweetness of glycerol and inversely glycerol reduced the acidity of acetic acid. The data obtained with the magnitude estimation test agree with Steven's law.

Study of the volatile compounds from plum (Prunus domestica L. cv. Horvin) and estimation of their contribution to the fruit aroma

Simultaneous Distillation-Extraction (SDE) and headspace-solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) combined with GC-FID and GC-MS were used to analyze volatile compounds from plum (Prunus domestica L. cv. Horvin) and to estimate the most odor-active compounds by application of the Odor Activity Values (OAV). The analyses led to the identification of 148 components, including 58 esters, 23 terpenoids, 14 aldehydes, 11 alcohols, 10 ketones, 9 alkanes, 7 acids, 4 lactones, 3 phenols, and other 9 compounds of different structures. According to the results of SDE-GC-MS, SPME-GC-MS and OAV, ethyl 2-methylbutanoate, hexyl acetate, (E)-2-nonenal, ethyl butanoate, (E)-2-decenal, ethyl hexanoate, nonanal, decanal, (E)-β-ionone, Γ-dodecalactone, (Z)-3-hexenyl acetate, pentyl acetate, linalool, Γ-decalactone, butyl acetate, limonene, propyl acetate, Δ-decalactone, diethyl sulfide, (E)-2-hexenyl acetate, ethyl heptanoate, (Z)-3-hexenol, (Z)-3-hexenyl hexanoate, eugenol, (E)-2-hexenal, ethyl pentanoate, hexyl 2-methylbutanoate, isopentyl hexanoate, 1-hexanol, Γ-nonalactone, myrcene, octyl acetate, phenylacetaldehyde, 1-butanol, isobutyl acetate, (E)-2-heptenal, octadecanal, and nerol are characteristic odor active compounds in fresh plums since they showed concentrations far above their odor thresholds.

Uncertainty of Efficiency Measurements in Electric Drives

The two central goals of this master's thesis are to serve as a guidebook on the determination of uncertainty in efficiency measurements and to investigate sources of uncertainty in efficiency measurements in the field of electric drives by a literature review, mathematical modeling and experimental means. The influence of individual sources of uncertainty on the total instrumental uncertainty is investigated with the help of mathematical models derived for a balance and a direct air cooled calorimeter. The losses of a frequency converter and an induction motor are measured with the input-output method and a balance calorimeter at 50 and 100 % loads. A software linking features of Matlab and Excel is created to process measurement data, calculate uncertainties and to calculate and visualize results. The uncertainties are combined with both the worst case and the realistic perturbation method and distributions of uncertainty by source are shown based on experimental results. A comparison of the calculated uncertainties suggests that the balance calorimeter determines losses more accurately than the input-output method with a relative RPM uncertainty of 1.46 % compared to 3.78 - 12.74 % respectively with 95 % level of confidence at the 93 % induction motor efficiency or higher. As some principles in uncertainty analysis are open to interpretation the views and decisions of the analyst can have noticeable influence on the uncertainty in the measurement result.