Testing for Balance Sheet Effects in Emerging Market Countries

This paper tests the presence of balance sheets effects and analyzes the implications for exchange rate policies in emerging markets. The results reveal that the emerging market bond index (EMBI) is negatively related to the banks' foreign currency leverage, and that these banks' foreign currency exposures are relatively unhedged. Panel SVAR methods using EMBI instead of advanced country lending rates find, contrary to the literature, that the amplitude of output responses to foreign interest rate shocks are smaller under relatively fixed regimes. The findings are robust to the local projections method of obtaining impulse responses, using country specific and GARCH-SVAR models.

A Bootstrap-Regression Procedure to Capture Unit Specific Effects in Data Envelopment Analysis

The Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) efficiency score obtained for an individual firm is a point estimate without any confidence interval around it. In recent years, researchers have resorted to bootstrapping in order to generate empirical distributions of efficiency scores. This procedure assumes that all firms have the same probability of getting an efficiency score from any specified interval within the [0,1] range. We propose a bootstrap procedure that empirically generates the conditional distribution of efficiency for each individual firm given systematic factors that influence its efficiency. Instead of resampling directly from the pooled DEA scores, we first regress these scores on a set of explanatory variables not included at the DEA stage and bootstrap the residuals from this regression. These pseudo-efficiency scores incorporate the systematic effects of unit-specific factors along with the contribution of the randomly drawn residual. Data from the U.S. airline industry are utilized in an empirical application.

Season of Birth Effects in Autism Spectrum Disorders

One factor that is investigated as a possible clue to etiological factors in Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) is season of birth. Season of birth effects could be the result of temperature, toxins, dietary changes, viral infections, and cultural or social factors that change seasonally (Bolton, Pickles, Harrington, Macdonald, & Rutter, 1992). A number of studies have looked for season of birth effects in ASD with no conclusive results. The current study analyzed season of birth effects in a sample of 441 children diagnosed with ASD. Analysis was also repeated after excluding prematurely born children from the data. Level of functioning and gender effects were tested by breaking the sample into a number of sub-groups. While there were no season of birth effects in the sample of all children with ASD when compared to children without ASD in either the entire sample or the non-premature sample, there were significant differences in the season of birth of low functioning children with ASD when compared with high functioning children with ASD.

Comparison of methods for assessing in home night time crying in healthy infants

Background. Infant colic is a common condition that is thought to put infants at risk for Shaken Baby Syndrome, a particularly devastating form of child abuse. However, little research has been done on techniques parents can use to deal with infant colic. This pilot study was conducted to assess the equipment that will be used in a randomized control trial that will compare the results for two different techniques that parents can use to reduce crying in infants with colic. ^ Methods. A total of 11 healthy infants, between one and five months of age, were recruited into this pilot study. All infants had a dosimeter, actiwatch and maternal log placed into the home and a subset of infants (N=3) were also recorded by a video camera. The equipment recorded between 6pm and 6am for at least two and up to five nights. The maternal log and video log were compared with one another to determine if the maternal log provides an accurate representation of the infant's night-time activities (i.e. sleep, awake, crying, feeding). The maternal log was then compared to the dosimeter and actiwatch data to determine if the dosimeter/actiwatch accurately reproduce the maternal log. ^ Results. Data from 10 infants were included in the analyses. The maternal log and video log were in full or partial agreement 90% of the time. When comparing events noted by the mother, the maternal log and dosimeter data were in agreement 84% of the time, and the maternal log and actiwatch data were in agreement 87% of the time. In combination, the dosimeter and/or actiwatch data agreed with the maternal log 90% of the time. ^ Conclusions. Our preliminary analyses of these data suggest the dosimeter and actiwatch will be useful tool for defining infant sleep patterns relative to the maternal log. However further analysis will be required to develop threshold values that can be used to objectively define events in the proposed RCT. Such analyses will need to integrate data from multiple dosimeters and deal with the shifting baselines observed for both the dosimeter and actiwatch.^

Considering Social Factors and Potential Moderation Effects in Children’s Health Research

In light of dramatic changes in American family demography in recent decades, there is a growing recognition that family structure is one of a host of important social factors contributing to children’s health and well-being. The article by Augustine and Kimbro contributes to a growing body of research linking children’s family structure and health outcomes, focusing specifically on the association between family living arrangements and children’s risk of obesity. Their analyses are especially helpful in suggesting that family scholars should pay more attention to potential heterogeneity in relationships between family structure and children’s outcomes.

(Table 1) Deuterium excess record during different time periods in Lomonosovfonna ice core

In this paper we present a deuterium excess (d) record from an ice core drilled on a small ice cap in Svalbard in 1997. The core site is located at Lomonosovfonna at 1255 m asl, and the analyzed time series spans the period 1400-1990 A.D. The record shows pronounced multidecadal to centennial-scale variations coherent with sea surface temperature changes registered in the subtropical to southern middle-latitude North Atlantic during the instrumental period. We interpret the negative trend in the deuterium excess during the 1400s and 1500s as an indication of cooling in the North Atlantic associated with the onset of the Little Ice Age. Consistently positive anomalies of d after 1900, peaking at about 1950, correspond with well-documented contemporary warming. Yet the maximum values of deuterium excess during 1900-1990 are not as high as in the early part of the record (pre-1550). This suggests that the sea surface temperatures during this earlier period of time in the North Atlantic to the south of approximately 45°N were at least comparable with those registered in the 20th century before the end of the 1980s. We examine the potential for a cold bias to exist in the deuterium excess record due to increased evaporation from the local colder sources of moisture having isotopically cold signature. It is argued that despite a recent oceanic warming, the contribution from this local moisture to the Lomonosovfonna precipitation budget is still insufficient to interfere with the isotopic signal from the primary moisture region in the midlatitude North Atlantic.