A 27 day persistence model of near-Earth solar wind conditions: a long lead-time forecast and a benchmark for dynamical models

Geomagnetic activity has long been known to exhibit approximately 27 day periodicity, resulting from solar wind structures repeating each solar rotation. Thus a very simple near-Earth solar wind forecast is 27 day persistence, wherein the near-Earth solar wind conditions today are assumed to be identical to those 27 days previously. Effective use of such a persistence model as a forecast tool, however, requires the performance and uncertainty to be fully characterized. The first half of this study determines which solar wind parameters can be reliably forecast by persistence and how the forecast skill varies with the solar cycle. The second half of the study shows how persistence can provide a useful benchmark for more sophisticated forecast schemes, namely physics-based numerical models. Point-by-point assessment methods, such as correlation and mean-square error, find persistence skill comparable to numerical models during solar minimum, despite the 27 day lead time of persistence forecasts, versus 2–5 days for numerical schemes. At solar maximum, however, the dynamic nature of the corona means 27 day persistence is no longer a good approximation and skill scores suggest persistence is out-performed by numerical models for almost all solar wind parameters. But point-by-point assessment techniques are not always a reliable indicator of usefulness as a forecast tool. An event-based assessment method, which focusses key solar wind structures, finds persistence to be the most valuable forecast throughout the solar cycle. This reiterates the fact that the means of assessing the “best” forecast model must be specifically tailored to its intended use.

Validation of a priori CME arrival predictions made using real-time heliospheric imager observations

Between December 2010 and March 2013, volunteers for the Solar Stormwatch (SSW) Citizen Science project have identified and analyzed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the near real-time Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory Heliospheric Imager observations, in order to make “Fearless Forecasts” of CME arrival times and speeds at Earth. Of the 60 predictions of Earth-directed CMEs, 20 resulted in an identifiable Interplanetary CME (ICME) at Earth within 1.5–6 days, with an average error in predicted transit time of 22 h, and average transit time of 82.3 h. The average error in predicting arrival speed is 151 km s−1, with an average arrival speed of 425km s−1. In the same time period, there were 44 CMEs for which there are no corresponding SSW predictions, and there were 600 days on which there was neither a CME predicted nor observed. A number of metrics show that the SSW predictions do have useful forecast skill; however, there is still much room for improvement. We investigate potential improvements by using SSW inputs in three models of ICME propagation: two of constant acceleration and one of aerodynamic drag. We find that taking account of interplanetary acceleration can improve the average errors of transit time to 19 h and arrival speed to 77 km s−1.

Mass transport effects in the borohydride oxidation reaction-Influence of the residence time on the reaction onset and faradaic efficiency

The borohydride oxidation reaction (BOR) was studied on Pt and Au electrodes by cyclic voltammetry in dilute alkaline borohydride solutions (0.1 M NaOH + 10(-3) mol L(-1) NaBH(4)). More specifically, the electrodes were considered as either Vulcan XC72-supported Pt or Au (noted as Pt/C and Au/C, respectively) active layers or smooth Pt or Au surfaces, the latter possibly being covered by a layer of (non-metalized) Vulcan XC72 carbon powder. The BOR onset potential and the number of electrons (n(e-)) exchanged per BH(4)(-) anion (faradaic efficiency) were investigated for these electrodes, to determine whether the residence time of reaction intermediates (at the electrode surface or inside the porous layer) does influence the overall reaction pathway/completion. For the carbon-supported platinum, n(e-) strongly depends on the thickness of the active layer. While thin (ca. 0.5 mu m-thick) Pt/C active layers yield n(e-) < 4, thick layers (approximately 3 mu m) yield n(e-)approximate to 8, which can be ascribed to the sufficient residence time of the molecules formed within the active layer (H(2), by heterogeneous hydrolysis, or BOR intermediates) enabling further (near-complete) oxidation. This puts into evidence that not only the nature of the electrocatalyst is important to reach high BOR efficiency, but also the structure/thickness of the active layer. The same trend applies for Au/C active layers and for smooth Pt or Au surfaces covered with a layer of (inactive) Vulcan XC72. In addition, the BOR onset usually shifts negative when the reaction intermediates are trapped, which suggests that some of the intermediates are more easily oxidized than BH(4)(-) itself; based on literature data, BH(3)OH(-) species is a likely candidate. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Brazilian indexing and inertial inflation: evidence from time-varying estimates of an inflation transfer function

This paper is a theoretica1 and empirica1 study of the re1ationship between indexing po1icy and feedback mechanisms in the inflationary adjustment process in Brazil. The focus of our study is on two policy issues: (1) did the Brazilian system of indexing of interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages make inflation so dependent on its own past values that it created a significant feedback process and inertia in the behaviour of inflation in and (2) was the feedback effect of past inf1ation upon itself so strong that dominated the effect of monetary/fiscal variables upon current inflation? This paper develops a simple model designed to capture several "stylized facts" of Brazi1ian indexing po1icy. Separate ru1es of "backward indexing" for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages, reflecting the evolution of po1icy changes in Brazil, are incorporated in a two-sector model of industrial and agricultural prices. A transfer function derived irom this mode1 shows inflation depending on three factors: (1) past values of inflation, (2) monetary and fiscal variables, and (3) supply- .shock variables. The indexing rules for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages place restrictions on the coefficients of the transfer function. Variations in the policy-determined parameters of the indexing rules imply changes in the coefficients of the transfer function for inflation. One implication of this model, in contrast to previous results derived in analytically simpler models of indexing, is that a higher degree of indexing does not make current inflation more responsive to current monetary shocks. The empirical section of this paper studies the central hypotheses of this model through estimation of the inflation transfer function with time-varying parameters. The results show a systematic non-random variation of the transfer function coefficients closely synchronized with changes in the observed values of the wage-indexing parameters. Non-parametric tests show the variation of the transfer function coefficients to be statistically significant at the time of the changes in wage indexing rules in Brazil. As the degree of indexing increased, the inflation feadback coefficients increased, while the effect of external price and agricultura shocs progressively increased and monetary effects progressively decreased.

The Effect of Residence Time on the Tensile Properties of Superelastic and Thermal Activated Ni-Ti Orthodontic Wires

Since the 1980s, different devices based on superelastic alloys have been developed to fulfill orthodontic applications. Particularly in the last decades several researches have been carried out to evaluate the mechanical behavior of Ni-Ti alloys, including their tensile, torsion and fatigue properties. However, studies regarding the dependence of elastic properties on residence time of Ni-Ti wires in the oral cavity are scarce. Such approach is essential since metallic alloys are submitted to mechanical stresses during orthodontic treatment as well as pH and temperature fluctuations. The goal of the present contribution is to provide elastic stress-strain results to guide the orthodontic choice between martensitic thermal activated and austenitic superelastic Ni-Ti alloys. From the point of view of an orthodontist, the selection of appropriate materials and the correct maintenance of the orthodontic apparatus are essential needs during clinical treatment. The present work evaluated the elastic behavior of Ni-Ti alloy wires with diameters varying from 0.014 to 0.020 inches, submitted to hysteresis tensile tests with 8% strain. Tensile tests were performed after periods of use of 1, 2 and 3 months in the oral cavity of patients submitted to orthodontic treatment. The results from the hysteresis tests allowed to exam the strain range covered by isostress lines upon loading and unloading, as well as the residual strain after unloading for both superelastic and thermal activated Ni-Ti wires. Superelastic Ni-Ti wires exhibited higher load isostress values compared to thermal activated wires. It was found that such differences in the load isostress values can increase with increasing residence time.

Fixed-time artificial insemination with estradiol and progesterone for Bos indicus cows I: Basis for development of protocols

Five experiments were conducted on commercial farms in Brazil aiming to develop a fixed-time artificial insemination (TAI) protocol that achieved pregnancy rates between 40% and 55% in Bos indicus cows. These studies resulted in the development of the following protocol: insertion of all intravaginal device containing 1.9 g of progesterone (CIDR) plus 2.0 mg im estradiol benzoate on Day 0; 12.5 mg im dinoprost tromethamine on Day 7 in cycling cows or oil Day 9 in anestrous cows; CIDR withdrawal plus 0.5 mg im estradiol cypionate plus temporary calf removal on Day 9; TAI (48 h after CIDR withdrawal) plus reuniting of calves with their dams on Day 11. Reduced dose of prostaglandin F(2 alpha) (PGF(2 alpha): 12.5 mg im dinoprost tromethamine) effectively caused luteolysis. In cycling cows, fertility was greater when the treatment with PGF(2 alpha) was administered on Day 7 than oil Day 9, but in anestrous cows, no effects of time of the PGF(2 alpha) treatment were found. Estradiol cypionate effectively replaced estradiol benzoate or gonadotropin-releasing hormone as the ovulatory stimulus, reducing labor and cost. In this protocol, CIDR inserts were successfully used four times (9 d each use) with no detrimental effects on fertility. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Shortening of primary dentin etching time and its implication on bond strength

Objective. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of shortening the etching time on the bond strength of a conventional and a self-etching primer adhesive system used in primary tooth dentin.Methods. Flat dentin surfaces were obtained from 24 primary molars, randomly assigned to 4 experimental groups. The adhesive systems Single Bond and Clearfil SE Bond were applied in two groups according to the manufacturers' recommendations. In the other two groups, the adhesives were applied after half-time of acid etching, 7 s for Single Bond and 10 s for Clearfil SE Primer. Resin crowns were built up and after 24 h storage in water at 37 &DEG; C, the teeth were sectioned to produce beams with cross-sectional area of approximately 0.49 mm(2). Specimens were tested in tension at 0.5 mm/min until failure. Fractured specimens were analyzed to determine the failure mode.Results. Tensile bond strengths for Single Bond in primary dentin were higher than for Clearfil SE Bond. Shortening of acid etching time improved bond strength only for Single Bond, while no statistically significant difference was observed for Clearfil SE Bond when both etching times were compared.Significance. No detrimental effect on bond strength was observed when the time of acid etching was shortened in 50%. Shortening the time for a procedure in a small child without compromising the quality of the work is a very important finding for the practicing pediatric dentist. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Influence of Calcium Chloride on the Setting Time, Solubility, Disintegration, and pH of Mineral Trioxide Aggregate and White Portland Cement with a Radiopacifier

This study evaluated the influence of addition of 10% calcium chloride (CaCl(2)) on the setting time, solubility, disintegration, and pH of white MTA (WMTA) and white Portland cement (WPC). A test of the setting time was performed following the #57 ADA specifications and a test of the final setting time according to the ASTM. For the solubility tests disintegration and pH, Teflon rings were filled with the cements and weighed after setting. After 24 h in a desiccator, they were once again weighed. Thereafter, they were immersed in MiliQ water for 24 and 72 h and 7, 14, and 28 days, with maintenance in the desiccator and weighing between periods. The pH of water in which the rings were immersed was measured immediately after contact with them and in the other periods. The addition of CaCl(2) provided a significant reduction (50%) in the initial setting time of cements. The final setting time of WMTA was reduced in 35.5% and the final setting time of WPC in 68.5%. The WMTA with CaCl(2) absorbed water and gained weight with time, except for in the 24-h period. The addition of CaCl(2) to the WPC reduced its solubility. The addition of CaCl(2) increased the pH of WMTA in the immediate period and at 24 and 72 h and for WPC in the immediate period and at 24 h. The addition of CaCl(2) to WMTA and WPC reduced the setting times and solubility of both and increased the pH of cements in the initial periods. (J Endod 2009;35:550-554)

Deuterium Equilibrium Time in Saliva of Newborn Infants

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Anti-poliovirus activity of Baccharis dracunculifolia and propolis by cell viability determination and real-time PCR

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Time-course of photosynthetic induction in four tropical woody species grown in contrasting irradiance habitats

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Tunneling time through a barrier using the local value of a time operator

A time for a quantum particle to traverse a barrier is obtained for stationary states by setting the local value of a time operator equal to a constant. This time operator, called the tempus operator because it is distinct from the time of evolution, is defined as the operator canonically conjugate to the energy operator. The local value of the tempus operator gives a complex time for a particle to traverse a barrier. The method is applied to a particle with a semiclassical wave function, which gives, in the classical limit, the correct classical traversal time. It is also applied to a quantum particle tunneling through a rectangular barrier. The resulting complex tunneling time is compared with complex tunneling times from other methods.

Accelerating solutions of perfect fluid hydrodynamics for initial energy density and life-time measurements in heavy ion collisions

A new class of accelerating, exact, explicit and simple solutions of relativistic hydrodynamics is presented. Since these new solutions yield a finite rapidity distribution, they lead to an advanced estimate of the initial energy density and life-time of high energy heavy ion collisions. Accelerating solutions are also given for spherical expansions in arbitrary number of spatial dimensions.

EFFECTS OF CAFFEINE ON FECUNDITY, EGG-LAYING CAPACITY, DEVELOPMENT TIME AND LONGEVITY IN DROSOPHILA-PROSALTANS

In Drosophila prosaltans reared on culture medium with caffeine (50-mu-g/ml, 100-mu-g/ml, 1000-mu-g/ml and 1500-mu-g/ml), fecundity decreased with increasing dosage. Other effects were (a) an approximately one day increase in development time of flies at 1000 and 1500-mu-g/ml, (b) a decrease of egg laying capacity, with increasing dosage and (c) a decrease of longevity when virgin males and females or mated males were analyzed. Mated treated females, however showed, in most experiments, greater longevity than the controls, thus suggesting a benefit of the partial blockage of reproduction caused by caffeine.

Purification of a PHA-Like chitin-binding protein from Acacia farnesiana seeds: A time-dependent oligomerization protein

A lectin-like protein from the seeds of Acacia farnesiana was isolated from the albumin fraction, characterized, and sequenced by tandem mass spectrometry. The albumin fraction was extracted with 0.5 M NaCl, and the lectin-like protein of A. farnesiana (AFAL) was purified by ion-exchange chromatography (Mono-Q) followed by chromatofocusing. AFAL agglutinated rabbit erythrocytes and did not agglutinate human ABO erythrocytes either native or treated with proteolytic enzymes. In sodium dodecyl sulfate gel electrophoresis under reducing and nonreducing conditions, AFAL separated into two bands with a subunit molecular mass of 35 and 50 kDa. The homogeneity of purified protein was confirmed by chromatofocusing with a pI=4.0+/-0.5. Molecular exclusion chromatography confirmed time-dependent oligomerization in AFAL, in accordance with mass spectrometry analysis, which confers an alteration in AFAL affinity for chitin. The protein sequence was obtained by a liquid chromatography quadrupole time-of-flight experiment and showed that AFAL has 68% and 63% sequence similarity with lectins of Phaseolus vulgaris and Dolichos biflorus, respectively.