Estimation of the viscoelastic properties of vessel walls using a computational model and Doppler ultrasound

Human arteries affected by atherosclerosis are characterized by altered wall viscoelastic properties. The possibility of noninvasively assessing arterial viscoelasticity in vivo would significantly contribute to the early diagnosis and prevention of this disease. This paper presents a noniterative technique to estimate the viscoelastic parameters of a vascular wall Zener model. The approach requires the simultaneous measurement of flow variations and wall displacements, which can be provided by suitable ultrasound Doppler instruments. Viscoelastic parameters are estimated by fitting the theoretical constitutive equations to the experimental measurements using an ARMA parameter approach. The accuracy and sensitivity of the proposed method are tested using reference data generated by numerical simulations of arterial pulsation in which the physiological conditions and the viscoelastic parameters of the model can be suitably varied. The estimated values quantitatively agree with the reference values, showing that the only parameter affected by changing the physiological conditions is viscosity, whose relative error was about 27% even when a poor signal-to-noise ratio is simulated. Finally, the feasibility of the method is illustrated through three measurements made at different flow regimes on a cylindrical vessel phantom, yielding a parameter mean estimation error of 25%.

Smoking and adolescence: Exploring tobacco consumption and related attitudes in three different age groups in Switzerland

The present study constitutes an investigation of tobacco consumption, related attitudes and individual differences in smoking or non-smoking behaviors in a sample of adolescents of different ages in the French-speaking part of Switzerland. We investigated three school-age groups (7th-grade, 9th-grade, and the second-year of high school) for differences in attitude and social and cognitive dimensions. We present both descriptive and inferential statistics. On an inferential level, we present a binary logistic regression-based model predicting risk of smoking. The resulting model most importantly suggests a strong relationship between smoking and alcohol consumption (both regular and sporadic). We interpret this result in terms of both the impact of the actual campaigns and the cognitive processes associated with adolescence.

The dynamics of the Swiss electricity market : three essays

Executive Summary Electricity is crucial for modern societies, thus it is important to understand the behaviour of electricity markets in order to be prepared to face the consequences of policy changes. The Swiss electricity market is now in a transition stage from a public monopoly to a liberalised market and it is undergoing an "emergent" liberalisation - i.e. liberalisation taking place without proper regulation. The withdrawal of nuclear capacity is also being debated. These two possible changes directly affect the mechanisms for capacity expansion. Thus, in this thesis we concentrate on understanding the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market. A conceptual model to help understand the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market is developed an explained in the first essay. We identify a potential risk of imports dependence. In the second essay a System Dynamics model, based on the conceptual model, is developed to evaluate the consequences of three scenarios: a nuclear phase-out, the implementation of a policy for avoiding imports dependence, and the combination of both. We conclude that the Swiss market is not well prepared to face unexpected changes of supply and demand, and we identify a risk of imports dependence, mainly in the case of a nuclear phase-out. The third essay focus on the opportunity cost of hydro-storage power generation, one of the main generation sources in Switzerland. We use and extended version of our model to test different policies for assigning an opportunity cost to hydro-storage power generation. We conclude that the preferred policies are different for different market participants and depend on market structure.

The influence of Bone Morphogenic Protein-2 on the consolidation phase in a distraction osteogenesis model.

We asked whether locally applied recombinant-Bone Morphogenic Protein-2 (rh-BMP-2) with an absorbable Type I collagen sponge (ACS) carrier could enhance the consolidation phase in a callotasis model. We performed unilateral transverse osteotomy of the tibia in 21 immature male rabbits. After a latency period of 7 days, a 3-weeks distraction was begun at a rate of 0.5mm/12h. At the end of the distraction period (Day 28) animals were randomly divided into three groups and underwent a second surgical procedure: 6 rabbits in Group I (Control group; the callus was exposed and nothing was added), 6 rabbits in Group II (ACS group; receiving the absorbable collagen sponge soaked with saline) and 9 rabbits in Group III (rh-BMP-2/ACS group; receiving the ACS soaked with 100μg/kg of rh-BMP-2, Inductos(®), Medtronic). Starting at Day 28 we assessed quantitative and qualitative radiographic parameters as well as densitometric parameters every two weeks (Days 28, 42, 56, 70 and 84). Animals were sacrificed after 8 weeks of consolidation (Day 84). Qualitative radiographic evaluation revealed hypertrophic calluses in the Group III animals. The rh-BMP-2/ACS also influenced the development of the cortex of the calluses as shown by the modified radiographic patterns in Group III when compared to Groups I and II. Densitometric analysis revealed the bone mineral content (BMC) was significantly higher in the rh-BMP-2/ACS treated animals (Group III).

Condom use with steady partners among heterosexual people living with HIV in Europe: testing the information-motivation-behavioral skills model.

Guided by a modified information-motivation-behavioral skills model, this study identified predictors of condom use among heterosexual people living with HIV with their steady partners. Consecutive patients at 14 European HIV outpatient clinics received an anonymous, standardized, self-administered questionnaire between March and December 2007. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and two-step backward elimination regression analyses stratified by gender. The survey included 651 participants (n = 364, 56% women; n = 287, 44%). Mean age was 39 years for women and 43 years for men. Most had acquired HIV sexually and more than half were in a serodiscordant relationship. Sixty-three percent (n = 229) of women and 59% of men (n = 169) reported at least one sexual encounter with a steady partner 6 months prior to the survey. Fifty-one percent (n = 116) of women and 59% of men (n = 99) used condoms consistently with that partner. In both genders, condom use was positively associated with subjective norm conducive to condom use, and self-efficacy to use condoms. Having a partner whose HIV status was positive or unknown reduced condom use. In men, higher education and knowledge about condom use additionally increased condom use, while the use of erectile-enhancing medication decreased it. For women, HIV disclosure to partners additionally reduced the likelihood of condom use. Positive attitudes to condom use and subjective norm increased self-efficacy in both genders, however, a number of gender-related differences appeared to influence self-efficacy. Service providers should pay attention to the identified predictors of condom use and adopt comprehensive and gender-related approaches for preventive interventions with people living with HIV.

Effects of rat anti-VEGF antibody in a rat model of corneal graft rejection by topical and subconjunctival routes.

PURPOSE: To compare the effect of a rat anti-VEGF antibody, administered either by topical or subconjunctival (SC) routes, on a rat model of corneal transplant rejection.METHODS: Twenty-four rats underwent corneal transplantation and were randomized into four treatment groups (n=6 in each group). G1 and G2 received six SC injections (0.02 ml 10 µg/ml) of denatured (G1) or active (G2) anti-VEGF from Day 0 to Day 21 every third day. G3 and G4 were instilled three times a day with denatured (G3) or active (G4) anti-VEGF drops (10 µg/ml) from Day 0 to Day 21. Corneal mean clinical scores (MCSs) of edema (E), transparency (T), and neovessels (nv) were recorded at Days 3, 9, 15, and 21. Quantification of neovessels was performed after lectin staining of vessels on flat mounted corneas.RESULTS: Twenty-one days after surgery, MCSs differed significantly between G1 and G2, but not between G3 and G4, and the rejection rate was significantly reduced in rats receiving active antibodies regardless of the route of administration (G2=50%, G4=66.65% versus G1 and G3=100%; p<0.05). The mean surfaces of neovessels were significantly reduced in groups treated with active anti-VEGF (G2, G4). However, anti-VEGF therapy did not completely suppress corneal neovessels.CONCLUSIONS: Specific rat anti-VEGF antibodies significantly reduced neovascularization and subsequent corneal graft rejection. The SC administration of the anti-VEGF antibody was more effective than topical instillation.

A Model of Collateral, Investment, and Adverse Selection

This paper characterizes the relationship between entrepreneurial wealth and aggregate investment under adverse selection. Its main finding is that such a relationship need not be monotonic. In particular, three results emerge from the analysis: (i) pooling equilibria, in which investment is independent of entrepreneurial wealth, are more likely to arise when entrepreneurial wealth is relatively low; (ii) separating equilibria, in which investment is increasing in entrepreneurial wealth, are most likely to arise when entrepreneurial wealth is relatively high and; (iii) for a given interest rate, an increase in entrepreneurial wealth may generate a discontinuous fall in investment.

The Three Horsemen of Growth: Plague, War and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe

How did Europe overtake China? We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors, and use it to explain how European per capita incomes and urbanization rates could surge ahead of Chinese ones. That living standards could exceed subsistence levels at all in a Malthusian setting should be surprising. Rising fertility and falling mortality ought to have reversed any gains. We show that productivity growth in Europe can only explain a small fraction of rising living standards. Population dynamics - changes of the birth and death schedules - were far more important drivers of the longrun Malthusian equilibrium. The Black Death raised wages substantially, creating important knock-on effects. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, raising urban wages and attracting migrants from rural areas. European cities were unhealthy, especially compared to Far Eastern ones. Urbanization pushed up aggregate death rates. This effect was reinforced by more frequent wars (fed by city wealth) and disease spread by trade. Thus, higher wages themselves reduced population pressure. Without technological change, our model can account for the sharp rise in European urbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes. We complement our calibration exercise with a detailed analysis of intra-European growth in the early modern period. Using a panel of European states in the period 1300-1700, we show that war frequency can explain a good share of the divergent fortunes within Europe.

Neurotoxicant-induced inflammatory response in three-dimensional brain cell cultures.

Brain inflammatory response is triggered by the activation of microglial cells and astrocytes in response to various types of CNS injury, including neurotoxic insults. Its outcome is determined by cellular interactions, inflammatory mediators, as well as trophic and/or cytotoxic signals, and depends on many additional factors such as the intensity and duration of the insult, the extent of both the primary neuronal damage and glial reactivity and the developmental stage of the brain. Depending on particular circumstances, the brain inflammatory response can promote neuroprotection, regeneration or neurodegeneration. Glial reactivity, regarded as the central phenomenon of brain inflammation, has also been used as an early marker of neurotoxicity. To study the mechanisms underlying the glial reactivity, serum-free aggregating brain cell cultures were used as an in vitro model to test the effects of conventional neurotoxicants such as organophosphate pesticides, heavy metals, excitotoxins and mycotoxins. This approach was found to be relevant and justified by the complex cell-cell interactions involved in the brain inflammatory response, the variability of the glial reactions and the multitude of mediators involved. All these variables need to be considered for the elucidation of the specific cellular and molecular reactions and their consequences caused by a given chemical insult.

Computational fluid dynamics of the right ventricular outflow tract and of the pulmonary artery: a bench model of flow dynamics.

OBJECTIVES: The reconstruction of the right ventricular outflow tract (RVOT) with valved conduits remains a challenge. The reoperation rate at 5 years can be as high as 25% and depends on age, type of conduit, conduit diameter and principal heart malformation. The aim of this study is to provide a bench model with computer fluid dynamics to analyse the haemodynamics of the RVOT, pulmonary artery, its bifurcation, and left and right pulmonary arteries that in the future may serve as a tool for analysis and prediction of outcome following RVOT reconstruction. METHODS: Pressure, flow and diameter at the RVOT, pulmonary artery, bifurcation of the pulmonary artery, and left and right pulmonary arteries were measured in five normal pigs with a mean weight of 24.6 ± 0.89 kg. Data obtained were used for a 3D computer fluid-dynamics simulation of flow conditions, focusing on the pressure, flow and shear stress profile of the pulmonary trunk to the level of the left and right pulmonary arteries. RESULTS: Three inlet steady flow profiles were obtained at 0.2, 0.29 and 0.36 m/s that correspond to the flow rates of 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 l/min flow at the RVOT. The flow velocity profile was constant at the RVOT down to the bifurcation and decreased at the left and right pulmonary arteries. In all three inlet velocity profiles, low sheer stress and low-velocity areas were detected along the left wall of the pulmonary artery, at the pulmonary artery bifurcation and at the ostia of both pulmonary arteries. CONCLUSIONS: This computed fluid real-time model provides us with a realistic picture of fluid dynamics in the pulmonary tract area. Deep shear stress areas correspond to a turbulent flow profile that is a predictive factor for the development of vessel wall arteriosclerosis. We believe that this bench model may be a useful tool for further evaluation of RVOT pathology following surgical reconstructions.

MRI visualized neo-intimal dissection and co-localization of novel apoptotic markers apolipoprotein C-1, ceramide and caspase-3 in a Watanabe hyperlipidemic rabbit model

PURPOSE: Apoptotic arterial wall vascular smooth muscle cell death is known to contribute to plaque vulnerability and rupture. Novel apoptotic markers like apolipoprotein C-I have been implicated in apoptotic human vascular smooth muscle cell death via recruiting a neutral sphingomyelinase (N-SMase)-ceramide pathway. In vivo relevance of these observations in an animal model of plaque rupture has not been shown. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using Watanabe rabbits, we investigated three different groups (group 1, three normal Watanabe rabbits; group 2, six Watanabe rabbits fed with high cholesterol diet for 3 months; group 3, five Watanabe rabbits with similar diet but additional endothelial denudation). We followed progression of atherosclerosis to pharmacologically induced plaque rupture non-invasively using novel 3D magnetic resonance Fast-Field-Echo angiography (TR=7.2, TE=3.6 ms, matrix=512 x 512) and Fast-Spin-Echo vessel wall imaging methods (TR=3 heart beats, TE=10.5 ms, matrix=304 x 304) on 1.5 T MRI. MRI provided excellent image quality with good MRI versus histology vessel wall thickness correlation (r=0.8). In six animals of group 2/3 MRI detected neo-intimal dissection in the abdominal aorta which was accompanied by immuno-histochemical demonstration of concomitant aforementioned novel apoptotic markers, previously implicated in the apoptotic smooth muscle cell death in vitro. CONCLUSIONS: Our studies suggest a potential role for the signal transduction pathway involving apolipoprotein C-I for in vivo apoptosis and atherosclerotic plaque rupture visualized by MRI.

Intraocular penetration of penciclovir after oral administration of famciclovir: a population pharmacokinetic model.

OBJECTIVES: We developed a population model that describes the ocular penetration and pharmacokinetics of penciclovir in human aqueous humour and plasma after oral administration of famciclovir. METHODS: Fifty-three patients undergoing cataract surgery received a single oral dose of 500 mg of famciclovir prior to surgery. Concentrations of penciclovir in both plasma and aqueous humour were measured by HPLC with fluorescence detection. Concentrations in plasma and aqueous humour were fitted using a two-compartment model (NONMEM software). Inter-individual and intra-individual variabilities were quantified and the influence of demographics and physiopathological and environmental variables on penciclovir pharmacokinetics was explored. RESULTS: Drug concentrations were fitted using a two-compartment, open model with first-order transfer rates between plasma and aqueous humour compartments. Among tested covariates, creatinine clearance, co-intake of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and body weight significantly influenced penciclovir pharmacokinetics. Plasma clearance was 22.8 ± 9.1 L/h and clearance from the aqueous humour was 8.2 × 10(-5) L/h. AUCs were 25.4 ± 10.2 and 6.6 ± 1.8 μg · h/mL in plasma and aqueous humour, respectively, yielding a penetration ratio of 0.28 ± 0.06. Simulated concentrations in the aqueous humour after administration of 500 mg of famciclovir three times daily were in the range of values required for 50% growth inhibition of non-resistant strains of the herpes zoster virus family. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma and aqueous penciclovir concentrations showed significant variability that could only be partially explained by renal function, body weight and comedication. Concentrations in the aqueous humour were much lower than in plasma, suggesting that factors in the blood-aqueous humour barrier might prevent its ocular penetration or that redistribution occurs in other ocular compartments.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Staphylococcal biofilm formation on the surface of three different calcium phosphate bone grafts: a qualitative and quantitative in vivo analysis.

Differences in physico-chemical characteristics of bone grafts to fill bone defects have been demonstrated to influence in vitro bacterial biofilm formation. Aim of the study was to investigate in vivo staphylococcal biofilm formation on different calcium phosphate bone substitutes. A foreign-body guinea-pig infection model was used. Teflon cages prefilled with β-tricalcium phosphate, calcium-deficient hydroxyapatite, or dicalcium phosphate (DCP) scaffold were implanted subcutaneously. Scaffolds were infected with 2 × 10(3) colony-forming unit of Staphylococcus aureus (two strains) or S. epidermidis and explanted after 3, 24 or 72 h of biofilm formation. Quantitative and qualitative biofilm analysis was performed by sonication followed by viable counts, and microcalorimetry, respectively. Independently of the material, S. aureus formed increasing amounts of biofilm on the surface of all scaffolds over time as determined by both methods. For S. epidermidis, the biofilm amount decreased over time, and no biofilm was detected by microcalorimetry on the DCP scaffolds after 72 h of infection. However, when using a higher S. epidermidis inoculum, increasing amounts of biofilm were formed on all scaffolds as determined by microcalorimetry. No significant variation in staphylococcal in vivo biofilm formation was observed between the different materials tested. This study highlights the importance of in vivo studies, in addition to in vitro studies, when investigating biofilm formation of bone grafts.

A multi-objective model for a multi-period distribution management problem

The problems arising in commercial distribution are complex and involve several players and decision levels. One important decision is relatedwith the design of the routes to distribute the products, in an efficient and inexpensive way.This article deals with a complex vehicle routing problem that can beseen as a new extension of the basic vehicle routing problem. The proposed model is a multi-objective combinatorial optimization problemthat considers three objectives and multiple periods, which models in a closer way the real distribution problems. The first objective is costminimization, the second is balancing work levels and the third is amarketing objective. An application of the model on a small example, with5 clients and 3 days, is presented. The results of the model show the complexity of solving multi-objective combinatorial optimization problems and the contradiction between the several distribution management objective.