Earth's ion upflow associated with polar cap patches: global and in-situ observations

We report simultaneous global monitoring of a patch of ionization and in situ observation of ion upflow at the center of the polar cap region during a geomagnetic storm. Our observations indicate strong fluxes of upwelling O+ ions originating from frictional heating produced by rapid antisunward flow of the plasma patch. The statistical results from the crossings of the central polar cap region by Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F16–F18 from 2010 to 2013 confirm that the field-aligned flow can turn upward when rapid antisunward flows appear, with consequent significant frictional heating of the ions, which overcomes the gravity effect. We suggest that such rapidly moving patches can provide an important source of upwelling ions in a region where downward flows are usually expected. These observations give new insight into the processes of ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling.

A review of drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia

The Middle East and Southwest Asia comprise a region that is water-stressed, societally vulnerable, and prone to severe droughts. Large-scale climate variability, particularly La Niña, appears to play an important role in region-wide drought, including the two most severe of the last fifty years—1999-2001 and 2007-2008—with implications for drought forecasting. Important dynamical factors include orography, thermodynamic influence on vertical motion, storm track changes, and moisture transport. Vegetation in the region is strongly impacted by drought and may provide an important feedback mechanism. In future projections, drying of the eastern Mediterranean is a robust feature, as are temperature increases throughout the region, which will affect evaporation and the timing and intensity of snowmelt. Vegetation feedbacks may become more important in a warming climate. There are a wide range of outstanding issues for understanding, monitoring, and predicting drought in the region, including: dynamics of the regional storm track, the relative importance of the range of dynamical mechanisms related to drought, regional coherence of drought, the relationship between synoptic-scale mechanisms and drought, predictability of vegetation and crop yields, stability of remote influences, data uncertainty, and the role of temperature. Development of a regional framework for cooperative work and dissemination of information and existing forecasts would speed understanding and make better use of available information.

Re-examining the U.K.'s greatest tornado outbreak: forecasting the limited extent of tornadoes along a cold front

On 23 November 1981, a strong cold front swept across the U.K., producing tornadoes from the west to the east coasts. An extensive campaign to collect tornado reports by the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) resulted in 104 reports, the largest U.K. outbreak. The front was simulated with a convection-permitting numerical model down to 200-m horizontal grid spacing to better understand its evolution and meteorological environment. The event was typical of tornadoes in the U.K., with convective available potential energy (CAPE) less than 150 J kg-1, 0-1-km wind shear of 10-20 m s-1, and a narrow cold-frontal rainband forming precipitation cores and gaps. A line of cyclonic absolute vorticity existed along the front, with maxima as large as 0.04 s-1. Some hook-shaped misovortices bore kinematic similarity to supercells. The narrow swath along which the line was tornadic was bounded on the equatorward side by weak vorticity along the line and on the poleward side by zero CAPE, enclosing a region where the environment was otherwise favorable for tornadogenesis. To determine if the 104 tornado reports were plausible, first possible duplicate reports were eliminated, resulting in as few as 58 tornadoes to as many as 90. Second, the number of possible parent misovortices that may have spawned tornadoes is estimated from model output. The number of plausible tornado reports in the 200-m grid-spacing domain was 22 and as many as 44, whereas the model simulation was used to estimate 30 possible parent misovortices within this domain. These results suggest that 90 reports was plausible.

Regional atmospheric circulation over Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum and its links to precipitation

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exhibits different large-scale atmospheric conditions compared to present-day climate due to altered boundary conditions. The regional atmospheric circulation and associated precipitation patterns over Europe are characterized for the first time with a weather typing approach (circulation weather types, CWT) for LGM paleoclimate simulations. The CWT approach is applied to four representative regions across Europe. While the CWTs over Western Europe are prevailing westerly for both present-day and LGM conditions, considerable differences are identified elsewhere: Southern Europe experienced more frequent westerly and cyclonic CWTs under LGM conditions, while Central and Eastern Europe was predominantly affected by southerly and easterly flow patterns. Under LGM conditions, rainfall is enhanced over Western Europe but is reduced over most of Central and Eastern Europe. These differences are explained by changing CWT frequencies and evaporation patterns over the North Atlantic Ocean. The regional differences of the CWTs and precipitation patterns are linked to the North Atlantic storm track, which was stronger over Europe in all considered models during the LGM, explaining the overall increase of the cyclonic CWT. Enhanced evaporation over the North Atlantic leads to higher moisture availability over the ocean. Despite the overall cooling during the LGM, this explains the enhanced precipitation over southwestern Europe, particularly Iberia. This study links large-scale atmospheric dynamics to the regional circulation and associated precipitation patterns and provides an improved regional assessment of the European climate under LGM conditions.

Abrupt transitions in the NAO control of explosive North Atlantic cyclone development

Explosive cyclones are intense extra-tropical low pressure systems featuring large deepening rates. In the Euro-Atlantic sector, they are a major source of life-threatening weather impacts due to their associated strong wind gusts, heavy precipitation and storm surges. The wintertime variability of the North Atlantic cyclonic activity is primarily modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this study, we investigate the interannual and multi-decadal variability of explosive North Atlantic cyclones using track density data from two reanalysis datasets (NCEP and ERA-40) and a control simulation of an atmosphere/ocean coupled General Circulation Model (GCM—ECHAM5/MPIOM1). The leading interannual and multi-decadal modes of variability of explosive cyclone track density are characterized by a strengthening/weakening pattern between Newfoundland and Iceland, which is mainly modulated by the NAO at both timescales. However, the NAO control of interannual cyclone variability is not stationary in time and abruptly fluctuates during periods of 20–25 years long both in NCEP and ECHAM5/MPIOM1. These transitions are accompanied by structural changes in the leading mode of explosive cyclone variability, and by decreased/enhanced baroclinicity over the sub-polar/sub-tropical North Atlantic. The influence of the ocean is apparently important for both the occurrence and persistence of such anomalous periods. In the GCM, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation appears to influence the large-scale baroclinicity and explosive cyclone development over the North Atlantic. These results permit a better understanding of explosive cyclogenesis variability at different climatic timescales and might help to improve predictions of these hazardous events.

The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene

The first agricultural societies were established around 10 ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5 ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies (e.g. Joos et al., 2004; Kaplan et al., 2011; Mitchell et al., 2013) have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) one in which potential natural vegetation was simulated by Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics (TRIFFID) but without land use changes and (ii) one where the anthropogenic land use model Kaplan and Krumhardt 2010 (KK10; Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011) was used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations were run at 1000-year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results from our model simulations indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and south-east Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7 ka BP in the June–July–August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3 ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. The global annual mean temperature anomalies found in our single model simulations were −0.22 at 1850 CE, −0.11 at 2 ka BP, and −0.03 °C at 7 ka BP. Regionally, the largest temperature changes were in Europe with anomalies of −0.83 at 1850 CE, −0.58 at 2 ka BP, and −0.24 °C at 7 ka BP. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies, and tropospheric stationary wave train disturbances in the mid- to high latitudes led to remote teleconnections.

A comparison between large-scale irregularities and scintillations in the polar ionosphere

A comparison tool has been developed by mapping the global GPS total electron content (TEC) and large coverage of ionospheric scintillations together on the geomagnetic latitude/magnetic local time coordinates. Using this tool, a comparison between large-scale ionospheric irregularities and scintillations are pursued during a geomagnetic storm. Irregularities, such as storm enhanced density (SED), middle-latitude trough and polar cap patches, are clearly identified from the TEC maps. At the edges of these irregularities, clear scintillations appeared but their behaviors were different. Phase scintillations (σsub{φ}) were almost always larger than amplitude scintillations (S4) at the edges of these irregularities, associated with bursty flows or flow reversals with large density gradients. An unexpected scintillation feature appeared inside the modeled auroral oval where S4 were much larger than σsub{φ}, most likely caused by particle precipitations around the exiting polar cap patches.

The energy cycle and structural evolution of cyclones over southeastern South America in three case studies

In this paper, the Lorenz energy cycle over a limited area was applied for three cyclones with different origins and evolutions, where each of them was formed in an important cyclogenetic region near southeastern South America. The synoptic conditions and energetics were analyzed during each system`s life cycle and showed important relationships between their energy cycle and the evolution of their vertical structure. In the case of the weak baroclinic cyclone which formed on Brazil`s south-southeastern coast, the analysis showed that it originated through a midlevel cutoff low with contribution from barotropic instability. Its evolution would indicate potential transition to a hybrid system if the convective activity were stronger. The system that occurred in the La Plata River mouth had features of an oceanic bomb-type cyclogenesis and showed an important contribution from the available potential energy generation term through the latent heat release by the convection. Meanwhile, the system of the southern Argentina coast presented a classical baroclinic development of extratropical cyclogenesis in the energy cycle, from the wave amplification up to the final occlusion of the associated frontal system. These analyses revealed that the development of some cyclones that occur in eastern South America can present different mechanisms that are not related to the classical extratropical cyclogenesis.

The role of convective parameterization in the simulation of a cyclone over the South Atlantic

Numerical simulations are carried out to examine the role of the Kuo and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterization schemes and dry dynamics on a cyclone development, in a weak baroclinic atmosphere, over subtropical South Atlantic Ocean. The initial phase of the cyclone development is investigated with a coarse horizontal mesh (75 km) and when the cyclone reaches the mature stage two different horizontal resolutions are used (75 and 25 km). The best performance simulation for the cyclone initial phase occurs when the Kuo convective scheme is applied, and this may be attributed to a greater diabatic warming in the troposphere. On the other hand, the dry simulation is not capable of simulating the correct location and intensity of the cyclone in its initial phase. During the mature phase, a cyclone over deepening occurs in the Kuo scheme experiment associated with larger latent heat release in a deep vertical column. The presence of downdraft currents in the KF scheme, which acts to cool and dry the lower levels, is essential to stabilize the atmosphere and to reproduce the nearest observation cyclone deepening rate. The largest cyclone deepening is found in the Kuo scheme high resolution experiment. This suggests that the KF convective scheme is less sensitive to the horizontal grid resolution. It was also revealed that the diabatic processes are crucial to simulate the observed features of this marine cyclone over subtropical region.

Flood Risk Assessment in Coastal Drainage Basins through a Multivariate Analysis within a GIS-Based Model

This paper presents a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach applied to coastal drainage basins where hydrological data are not available. It involves risk to different types of possible processes: coastal inundation (storm surge), river, estuarine and flash flood, either at urban or natural areas, and fords. Based on the causes of these processes, several environmental indicators were taken to build-up the risk assessment. Geoindicators include geological-geomorphologic proprieties of Quaternary sedimentary units, water table, drainage basin morphometry, coastal dynamics, beach morphodynamics and microclimatic characteristics. Bioindicators involve coastal plain and low slope native vegetation categories and two alteration states. Anthropogenic indicators encompass land use categories properties such as: type, occupation density, urban structure type and occupation consolidation degree. The selected indicators were stored within an expert Geoenvironmental Information System developed for the State of Sao Paulo Coastal Zone (SIIGAL), which attributes were mathematically classified through deterministic approaches, in order to estimate natural susceptibilities (Sn), human-induced susceptibilities (Sa), return period of rain events (Ri), potential damages (Dp) and the risk classification (R), according to the equation R=(Sn.Sa.Ri).Dp. Thematic maps were automatically processed within the SIIGAL, in which automata cells (""geoenvironmental management units"") aggregating geological-geomorphologic and land use/native vegetation categories were the units of classification. The method has been applied to the Northern Littoral of the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil) in 32 small drainage basins, demonstrating to be very useful for coastal zone public politics, civil defense programs and flood management.

Lycopodiopsis derbyi Renault from the Corumbatai Formation in the state of Sao Paulo (Guadalupian of Parana Basin, Southern Brazil): New data from compressed silicified stems

Lycopodiopsis derbyi Renault was analyzed on the basis of compressed silicified stems from four Guadalupian outcrops of the Parana Basin (Corumbatai Formation) in the State of Sao Paulo, Southern Brazil. Dichotomous stems have been recorded, and three different branch regions related to apoxogenesis are described. The most proximal region has larger, clearly rhomboidal leaf cushions, with protruding upper edges; the intermediate transitional region also has rhombic leaf cushions, but they are smaller and less elongated than the lower in the same axis; finally, the most distal region reveals only incipient cushions, with inconspicuous infrafoliar bladders; interspersed microphylls were still attached. A well preserved branch representative of this most distal region was sectioned; it has a siphonostelic cylinder similar to that previously described for L derbyi. The cortex, however, shows new traits, such as a short portion of elongated cells between the periderm and the external cortex (or leaf cushion tissue). The stems were apparently silicified prior to their final burial but were probably not transported for long distances. Their final burial may have taken place during storm events, which were common during the deposition of the Corumbatai Formation. These stems are commonly deformed due to compression, mainly because the internal cortical portions rapidly decayed prior to silicification due to their thin-walled tissue, and are therefore not preserved. The common alkalinity of a shallow marine environment such as that in which the Corumbatai Formation was deposited, should mobilize the silica and favors petrifaction. Based on the new data, an emended diagnosis is proposed and a modification of the identification key published by Thomas and Meyen in 1984 for Upper Paleozoic Lycopsida is suggested. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

En studie av antisemitismen i texterna hos tre vit makt-band

Denna uppsats handlar om förekomsten av Antisemitism i den svenska s.k. Vit makt-musiken. Uppsatsens syfte är att kartlägga förekomsten av antisemitism i tre vit makt- band: Pluton Svea, Storm och Dirlewanger. Analysen sker genom att texterna till två album av varje band studeras. Metoden är både kvalitativ som kvantitativ och bland annat så undersöks olika typer av antisemitiska uttalanden som därefter nivåsätts enligt en, av författaren, modifierad skala konstruerad av forskaren John C.G. Röhl. Resultatet av denna undersökning visar att antisemitism är ständigt närvarande i denna musikstil. Dock tar den sig olika uttryck beroende på vilket band det gäller. I de album som är producerade under 2000-talet tycks även en viss nedtoning av den våldsammaste formen av antisemitism kunna ses.

Accelerated aging of thick glass second surface silvered reflectors under sandstorm conditions

Concentrated solar power systems are expected to be sited in desert locations where the direct normal irradiation is above 1800 kWh/m2.year. These systems include large solar collector assemblies, which account for a significant share of the investment cost. Solarreflectors are the main components of these solar collector assemblies and dust/sand storms may affect their reflectance properties, either by soiling or by surface abrasion. While soiling can be reverted by cleaning, surface abrasion is a non reversible degradation.The aim of this project was to study the accelerated aging of second surface silvered thickglass solar reflectors under simulated sandstorm conditions and develop a multi-parametric model which relates the specular reflectance loss to dust/sand storm parameters: wind velocity, dust concentration and time of exposure. This project focused on the degradation caused by surface abrasion.Sandstorm conditions were simulated in a prototype environmental test chamber. Material samples (6cm x 6cm) were exposed to Arizona coarse test dust. The dust stream impactedthese material samples at a perpendicular angle. Both wind velocity and dust concentrationwere maintained at a stable level for each accelerated aging test. The total exposure time in the test chamber was limited to 1 hour. Each accelerated aging test was interrupted every 4 minutes to measure the specular reflectance of the material sample after cleaning.The accelerated aging test campaign had to be aborted prematurely due to a contamination of the dust concentration sensor. A robust multi-parametric degradation model could thus not be derived. The experimental data showed that the specular reflectance loss decreasedeither linearly or exponentially with exposure time, so that a degradation rate could be defined as a single modeling parameter. A correlation should be derived to relate this degradation rate to control parameters such as wind velocity and dust/sand concentration.The sandstorm chamber design would have to be updated before performing further accelerated aging test campaigns. The design upgrade should improve both the reliability of the test equipment and the repeatability of accelerated aging tests. An outdoor exposure test campaign should be launched in deserts to learn more about the intensity, frequencyand duration of dust/sand storms. This campaign would also serve to correlate the results of outdoor exposure tests with accelerated exposure tests in order to develop a robust service lifetime prediction model for different types of solar reflector materials.

En jämförelse av molnbaserade realtidsanalystjänster : Skillnader i användbarhet mellan multi-tenant och single-tenant arkitekturer

Internet of Things är ett samlingsbegrepp för den utveckling som innebär att olika typer av enheter kan förses med sensorer och datachip som är uppkopplade mot internet. En ökad mängd data innebär en ökad förfrågan på lösningar som kan lagra, spåra, analysera och bearbeta data. Ett sätt att möta denna förfrågan är att använda sig av molnbaserade realtidsanalystjänster. Multi-tenant och single-tenant är två typer av arkitekturer för molnbaserade realtidsanalystjänster som kan användas för att lösa problemen med hanteringen av de ökade datamängderna. Dessa arkitekturer skiljer sig åt när det gäller komplexitet i utvecklingen. I detta arbete representerar Azure Stream Analytics en multi-tenant arkitektur och HDInsight/Storm representerar en single-tenant arkitektur. För att kunna göra en jämförelse av molnbaserade realtidsanalystjänster med olika arkitekturer, har vi valt att använda oss av användbarhetskriterierna: effektivitet, ändamålsenlighet och användarnöjdhet. Vi kom fram till att vi ville ha svar på följande frågor relaterade till ovannämnda tre användbarhetskriterier: • Vilka likheter och skillnader kan vi se i utvecklingstider? • Kan vi identifiera skillnader i funktionalitet? • Hur upplever utvecklare de olika analystjänsterna? Vi har använt en design and creation strategi för att utveckla två Proof of Concept prototyper och samlat in data genom att använda flera datainsamlingsmetoder. Proof of Concept prototyperna inkluderade två artefakter, en för Azure Stream Analytics och en för HDInsight/Storm. Vi utvärderade dessa genom att utföra fem olika scenarier som var för sig hade 2-5 delmål. Vi simulerade strömmande data genom att låta en applikation kontinuerligt slumpa fram data som vi analyserade med hjälp av de två realtidsanalystjänsterna. Vi har använt oss av observationer för att dokumentera hur vi arbetade med utvecklingen av analystjänsterna samt för att mäta utvecklingstider och identifiera skillnader i funktionalitet. Vi har även använt oss av frågeformulär för att ta reda på vad användare tyckte om analystjänsterna. Vi kom fram till att Azure Stream Analytics initialt var mer användbart än HDInsight/Storm men att skillnaderna minskade efter hand. Azure Stream Analytics var lättare att arbeta med vid simplare analyser medan HDInsight/Storm hade ett bredare val av funktionalitet.

The salt wedge position in a bar-blocked estuary subject to pulsed inflows

A series of laboratory experiments were carried out to investigate the response of a bar-blocked, saltwedge estuary to the imposition of both steady freshwater inflows and transient inflows that simulate storm events in the catchment area or the regular water releases from upstream reservoirs. The trapped salt water forms a wedge within the estuary, which migrates downstream under the influence of the freshwater inflow. The experiments show that the wedge migration occurs in two stages, namely (i) an initial phase characterized by intense shear-induced mixing at the nose of the wedge, followed by (ii) a relatively quiescent phase with significantly reduced mixing in which the wedge migrates more slowly downstream.

Provided that the transition time t_T between these two regimes satisfies t_T>g′h⁴L/q³α, as was the case for all our experiments and is likely to be the case for most estuaries, then the transition occurs at time t_T=1.2(gα³L⁶/g′³q²)^1/6, where g′=gΔρ/ρ0 is the reduced gravity, g the acceleration due to gravity, Δρ the density excess of the saline water over the density ρ₀ of the freshwater, q the river inflow rate per unit width, and L and α are the length and bottom slope of the estuary, respectively.

A simple model, based on conversion of the kinetic energy of the freshwater inflow into potential energy to mix the salt layer, was developed to predict the displacement xw over time t of the saltwedge nose from its initial position. For continuous inflows subject to t<t_T, the model predicts the saltwedge displacement as x_w/h=1.1 (t/τ)^1/3, where the normalizing length and time scales are h=(q²/g)^1/3 and τ=g′α²h4L/q³, respectively. For continuous inflows subject to t>tT, the model predicts the displacement as xw/h=0.45N1/6(t/τ)1/6/α, where N=q²/g′h²L is a non-dimensional number for the problem. This model shows very good agreement with the experiments. For repeated, pulsed discharges subject to t<t_T, the saltwedge displacement is given by (xw/h)3−(x0/h)(xw/h)2=1.3t/τ, where x₀ is the initial displacement following one discharge event but prior to the next event. For pulsed discharges subject to t>t_T, the displacement is given by (xw/h)⁶−(x0/h)(xw/h)⁵=0.008N(t/τ)/α⁶. This model shows very good agreement with the experiments for the initial discharge event but does systematically underestimate the wedge position for the subsequent pulses. However, the positional error is less than 15%.