Structural funds and the knowledge-based economy:a regional case-study (1999-2009)

The research presented in this thesis investigates the nature of the relationship between the development of the Knowledge-Based Economy (KBE) and Structural Funds (SF) in European regions. A particular focus is placed on the West Midlands (UK) and Silesia (Poland). The time-frame taken into account in this research is the years 1999 to 2009. This is methodologically addressed by firstly establishing a new way of calculating the General Index of the KBE for all of the EU regions; secondly, applying a number of statistical methods to measure the influence of the Funds on the changes in the regional KBE over time; and finally, by conducting a series of semi-structured stakeholder interviews in the two key case study regions: the West Midlands and Silesia. The three main findings of the thesis are: first, over the examined time-frame, the values of the KBE General Index increased in over 66% of the EU regions; furthermore, the number of the “new” EU regions in which the KBE increased over time is far higher than in the “old” EU. Second, any impact of Structural Funds on the regional KBE occurs only in the minority of the European regions and any form of functional dependency between the two can be observed only in 30% of the regions. Third, although the pattern of development of the regional KBE and the correlation coefficients differ in the cases of Silesia and the West Midlands, the analysis of variance carried out yields identical results for both regions. Furthermore, the qualitative analysis’ results show similarities in the approach towards the Structural Funds in the two key case-study regions.

Premonitory urges for tics in adult patients with Tourette syndrome

Objective: Patients with Tourette syndrome (TS) often report characteristic sensory experiences, also called premonitory urges (PUs), which precede tic expression and have high diagnostic relevance. This study investigated the usefulness of a scale developed and validated in children and adolescents-the Premonitory Urge for Tics Scale (PUTS, Woods et al., 2005 [13])-for the assessment of PUs in adult patients with TS. Method: Standard statistical methods were applied to test the psychometric properties of the PUTS in 102 adult TS outpatients recruited from two specialist clinics in the United Kingdom. Results: The PUTS showed good acceptability and endorsement rates, with evenly distributed scores and low floor and ceiling effects. Item-total correlations were moderate to strong; PUTS total scores were significantly correlated with quantitative measures of TS severity. The PUTS showed excellent internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's alpha=0.85) and Spearman's correlations demonstrated satisfactory convergent and discriminant validity. Conclusions: Although originally devised to assess urges to tic in young patients with TS, the PUTS demonstrated good psychometric properties in a large sample of adults recruited at specialist TS clinics. This instrument is therefore recommended for use across the life span as a valid and reliable self-report measure of sensory experiences accompanying tic expression. © 2013 The Japanese Society of Child Neurology.

Guiding local regression using visualisation

Solving many scientific problems requires effective regression and/or classification models for large high-dimensional datasets. Experts from these problem domains (e.g. biologists, chemists, financial analysts) have insights into the domain which can be helpful in developing powerful models but they need a modelling framework that helps them to use these insights. Data visualisation is an effective technique for presenting data and requiring feedback from the experts. A single global regression model can rarely capture the full behavioural variability of a huge multi-dimensional dataset. Instead, local regression models, each focused on a separate area of input space, often work better since the behaviour of different areas may vary. Classical local models such as Mixture of Experts segment the input space automatically, which is not always effective and it also lacks involvement of the domain experts to guide a meaningful segmentation of the input space. In this paper we addresses this issue by allowing domain experts to interactively segment the input space using data visualisation. The segmentation output obtained is then further used to develop effective local regression models.

Entropy Based Approach to Finding Interacting Genes Responsible for Complex Human Disease

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62P10, 92D10, 92D30, 94A17, 62L10.

Probabilistic Approach to Design of Large Antenna Arrays

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 78A50

Monte Carlo Method for Reconstruction of Densities

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 65C05

Multiple Dipole Source Models for Scalp-Recorded Event-Related Potentials: Example from Complex Visual Processing in the Human Brain

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62P10, 92C20

Classification of Paintings by Artist, Movement, and Indoor Setting Using MPEG-7 Descriptor Features

ACM Computing Classification System (1998): I.4.9, I.4.10.

Does money matter in inflation forecasting?

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two nonlinear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regressiontechniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a nave random walk model. The best models were nonlinear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. Beyond its economic findings, our study is in the tradition of physicists' long-standing interest in the interconnections among statistical mechanics, neural networks, and related nonparametric statistical methods, and suggests potential avenues of extension for such studies. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Public-Private Partnership vélt és valós hangsúlyai Magyarországon = Assumed and actual emphases of Public-Private Partnership in Hungary

Írásunk a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) magyarországi megvalósulásának hangsúlyairól szól. Azt vizsgáljuk, hogy a szakmai közvélemény milyen képet alakíthatott ki e projektekről a szaksajtó olvasásán keresztül. Három tágabb elvi szempont sajtóbeli megjelenésének súlyát elemezzük: a PPP céljai, a feladatok hatékonyabb elvégzésének módja, illetve a társadalmi kontroll megvalósulása áll érdeklődésünk középpontjában. A tartalomelemzés matematikai-statisztikai módszereit alkalmazzuk. Következtetésünk, hogy a PPP-projektek általában még nem elvi lényegük szerint valósultak meg Magyarországon, bár az évek során érzékelhető pozitív irányú elmozdulás: tanulási folyamat történik. Ennek alapján nem szabad a PPP-t mint módszert elvetni a közfeladatok ellátásában, hanem alkalmazási módjának tökéletesítésére kell törekedni. = This working paper focuses on the perceptions of the Hungarian implementation of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects. It was examined how PPP was perceived in the wider public through the communication of the most read daily and weekly business journals. We analyzed the proportion of three broad aspects in the articles: the main goals of PPP, efficiency improvement as a substantial opportunity for value creation, and the role of democratic control. We applied the mathematical-statistical methods of content analysis. Our conclusion is that PPP-projects in Hungary are far from the normative model of implementation as discerned from literature, but from year to year a positive shift, a learning process can be observed. Therefore, instead of discarding PPP as a progressive government solution, Hungary should focus on improving the design and implementation of PPP projects.

A kockázat mint látens fogalom (Risk - A latent concept)

A kockázat statisztikai értelemben közvetlenül nem mérhető, azaz látens fogalom éppen úgy, mint a gazdasági fejlettség, a szervezettség vagy az intelligencia. Mi bennünk a közös? A kockázat is komplex fogalom, több mérhető tényezőt foglal magában, és bár sok tényezőjét mérjük, fel sem tételezzük, hogy pontos eredményt kapunk. Ebben a megközelítésben az elemző kezdettől fogva tudja, hogy hiányos az ismerete. Ezt Bélyácz [2011[ nyomán úgy is megfogalmazhatjuk: „A statisztikusok tudják, hogy valamit éppen nem tudnak.” / === / From statistical point of view risk, like economic development is a latent concept. Typically there is no one number which can explicitly estimate or project risk. Variance is used as a proxy in finance to measure risk. Other professions are using other concepts for risk. Underwriting is the most important step in insurance business to analyse exposure. Actuaries evaluate average claim size and the probability of claim to calculate risk. Bayesian credibility can be used to calculate insurance premium combining frequencies and empirical knowledge, as a prior. Different types of risks can be classified into a risk matrix to separate insurable risk. Only this category can be analysed by multivariate statistical methods, which are based on statistical data. Sample size and frequency of events are relevant not only in insurance, but in pension and investment decisions as well.

Comparative Assessment of Climate Change Scenarios Based on Aquatic Food Web Modeling

In the years 2004 and 2005, we collected samples of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and macroinvertebrates in an artificial small pond in Budapest (Hungary). We set up a simulation model predicting the abundances of the cyclopoids, Eudiaptomus zachariasi, and Ischnura pumilio by considering only temperature and the abundance of population of the previous day. Phytoplankton abundance was simulated by considering not only temperature but the abundances of the three mentioned groups. When we ran the model with the data series of internationally accepted climate change scenarios, the different outcomes were discussed. Comparative assessment of the alternative climate change scenarios was also carried out with statistical methods.

Academic performance of college students in financial management and related prerequisite courses: A comparison of senior high school and commercial high school graduates attending Tamsui Oxford University College in Taiwan

In Taiwan, the college freshmen are recruited graduates of both senior high school and senior vocational school. The Ministry of Education (MOE) of the Republic of China prescribes the standards of curriculum and equipment for schools at all levels and categories. There exists a considerably different curriculum arrangement for senior high schools and vocational high schools in Taiwan at the present time. The present study used a causal-comparative research design to identify the influences of different post-secondary educational background on specialized course performance of college business majors. ^ The students involved in this study were limited to the students of four business-related departments at Tamsui Oxford University College in Taiwan. Students were assigned to comparison groups based on their post-secondary educational background as senior high school graduates and commercial high school graduates. The analysis of this study included a comparison of students' performance on lower level courses and a comparison of students' performance in financial management. The analysis also considered the relationship between the students' performance in financial management and its related prerequisite courses. The Kolb Learning Style Inventory (LSI) survey was administered to categorize subjects' learning styles and to compare the learning styles between the two groups in this study. The applied statistical methods included t-test, correlation, multiple regression, and Chi-square. ^ The findings of this study indicated that there were significant differences between the commercial high school graduates and the senior high school graduates on academic performances in specialized courses but not in general courses. There were no significant differences in learning styles between the two groups. These findings lead to the conclusion that business majors' academic performance in specialized courses were influenced by their post-secondary educational background. ^

Types and amplitudes of touch as reinforcing stimuli in operant conditioning of infant behavior

The reinforcing effects of diverse tactile stimuli were examined in this study. The study had two purposes. First, this study expanded on the Pelaez-Nogueras, Field, Gewirtz, Cigales, Gonzalez, Sanchez and Clasky (1997) finding that stroking increases infants' gaze duration, and smiling and vocalization frequencies more than tickling/poking. Instead of presenting poking and tickling as a single stimulus combination, this study separated poking and tickling in order to measure the effects of each component separately. Further, the effects of poking, tickling/tapping and stroking intensity (i.e., tactile pressure) were compared by having both mild and intense conditions. Second, this study compared the reinforcing efficacy of mother-delivered tactile stimulation to that of infant-originated tactile exploration. Twelve infants from 2- to 5-months of age participated in this study. The experiment was conducted using a repeated measures A-B-A-C-A-D reversal design. The A phases signified baselines and reversals. The B, C, and D phases consisted of alternating treatments (either mild stroking vs. mild poking vs. mild tickling/tapping, intense stroking vs. intense poking vs. intense tickling/tapping, or mother-delivered tactile stimulation vs. infant-originated tactile exploration). Three experimental hypotheses were assessed: (1) infant leg kick rate would be greater when it produced stroking or tickling/tapping (presumptive positive reinforcers), than when it produced poking (a possible punisher), regardless of tactile pressure; (2) infant leg kick rate would be greater when it produced a more intense level of stroking or tickling/tapping and lower when it produced intense poking compared to mild poking; (3) infant leg-kick rate would be greater for mother-delivered tactile stimulation than for infant-originated tactile exploration. Visual inspection and inferential statistical methods were used to analyze the results. The data supported the first two hypotheses. Mixed support emerged for the third hypothesis. This study made several important contributions to the field of psychology. First, this was the first study to quantify the pressure of tactile stimulation, via a pressure meter developed by the researcher. Additionally, the results of this study yielded valuable information about the effects of different modalities of touch. ^

Paleoenvironmental reconstruction of Florida Bay, South Florida, using benthic foraminifera

Efforts that are underway to rehabilitate the Florida Bay ecosystem to a more natural state are best guided by a comprehensive understanding of the natural versus human-induced variability that has existed within the ecosystem. Benthic foraminifera, which are well-known paleoenvironmental indicators, were identified in 203 sediment samples from six sediment cores taken from Florida Bay, and analyzed to understand the environmental variability through anthropogenically unaltered and altered periods. In this research, taxa serving as indicators of (1) seagrass abundance (which is correlated with water quality), (2) salinity, and (3) general habitat change, were studied in detail over the past 120 years, and more generally over the past ~4000 years. Historical seagrass abundance was reconstructed with the proportions of species that prefer living attached to seagrass blades over other substrates. Historical salinity trends were determined by analyzing brackish versus marine faunas, which were defined based on species’ salinity preferences. Statistical methods including cluster analysis, discriminant analysis, analysis of variance and Fisher’s α were used to analyze trends in the data. The changes in seagrass abundance and salinity over the last ~120 years are attributed to anthropogenic activities such as construction of the Flagler Railroad from the mainland to the Florida Keys, the Tamiami Trail that stretches from the east to west coast, and canals and levees in south Florida, as well as natural events such as droughts and increased rainfall from hurricanes. Longer term changes (over ~4000 years) in seagrass abundance and salinity are mostly related to sea level changes. Since seawater entered the Florida Bay area around ~4000 years ago, only one probable sea level drop occurring around ~3000 years was identified.