Inference in differences-in-differences with few treated groups and heteroskedasticity

Differences-in-Differences (DID) is one of the most widely used identification strategies in applied economics. However, how to draw inferences in DID models when there are few treated groups remains an open question. We show that the usual inference methods used in DID models might not perform well when there are few treated groups and errors are heteroskedastic. In particular, we show that when there is variation in the number of observations per group, inference methods designed to work when there are few treated groups tend to (under-) over-reject the null hypothesis when the treated groups are (large) small relative to the control groups. This happens because larger groups tend to have lower variance, generating heteroskedasticity in the group x time aggregate DID model. We provide evidence from Monte Carlo simulations and from placebo DID regressions with the American Community Survey (ACS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS) datasets to show that this problem is relevant even in datasets with large numbers of observations per group. We then derive an alternative inference method that provides accurate hypothesis testing in situations where there are few treated groups (or even just one) and many control groups in the presence of heteroskedasticity. Our method assumes that we know how the heteroskedasticity is generated, which is the case when it is generated by variation in the number of observations per group. With many pre-treatment periods, we show that this assumption can be relaxed. Instead, we provide an alternative application of our method that relies on assumptions about stationarity and convergence of the moments of the time series. Finally, we consider two recent alternatives to DID when there are many pre-treatment groups. We extend our inference method to linear factor models when there are few treated groups. We also propose a permutation test for the synthetic control estimator that provided a better heteroskedasticity correction in our simulations than the test suggested by Abadie et al. (2010).

Cyclicality of SME lending and government involvement in banks

Recent regulatory efforts aim at lowering the cyclicality of bank lending because of its potential detrimental effects on financial stability and the real economy. We investigate the cyclicality of SME lending by local banks with vs. without a public mandate, controlling for location, size, loan maturity, funding structure, liquidity, profitability, and credit demand-side factors. The public mandate is set by local governments and stipulates a deviation from strict profit maximization and a sustainable provision of financial services to local customers. We find that banks with a public mandate are 25 percent less cyclical than other local banks. The result is credit supply-side driven and especially strong for savings banks with high liquidity and stable deposit funding. Our findings have implications for the banking structure, financial stability and the finance-growth nexus in a local context.

Convergence analysis of sampling-based decomposition methods for risk-averse multistage stochastic convex programs

We consider a class of sampling-based decomposition methods to solve risk-averse multistage stochastic convex programs. We prove a formula for the computation of the cuts necessary to build the outer linearizations of the recourse functions. This formula can be used to obtain an efficient implementation of Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming applied to convex nonlinear problems. We prove the almost sure convergence of these decomposition methods when the relatively complete recourse assumption holds. We also prove the almost sure convergence of these algorithms when applied to risk-averse multistage stochastic linear programs that do not satisfy the relatively complete recourse assumption. The analysis is first done assuming the underlying stochastic process is interstage independent and discrete, with a finite set of possible realizations at each stage. We then indicate two ways of extending the methods and convergence analysis to the case when the process is interstage dependent.

Human growth, biological maturation, motor performance and contextual factors in Madeira children

The central aims of this study were: (1) to construct age- and gender-specific percentiles for motor coordination (MC), (2) to analyze the change, stability, and prediction of MC, (3) to investigate the relationship between motor performance and body fatness, and (4) to evaluate the relationships between skeletal maturation and fundamental motor skills (FMS) and MC. The data collected was from the ‘Healthy Growth of Madeira Children Study’ and from the ‘Madeira Child Growth Study’. In these studies, MC, FMS, skeletal age, growth characteristics, motor performance, physical activity, socioeconomic status, and geographical area were assessed/measured. Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape, mixed between-within subjects ANOVA, multilevel models, and hierarchical regression (blocks) were some of the statistical procedures used in the analyses. Scores on walking backwards and moving sideways improved with age. It was also found that boys performed better than girls on moving sideways. Normal-weight children outperformed obese peers in almost all gross MC tests. Inter-age correlations were calculated to be between 0.15 and 0.60. Age was associated with a better performance in catching, scramble, speed run, standing long jump, balance, and tennis ball throwing. Body mass index was positively associated with scramble and speed run, and negatively related to the standing long jump. Physical activity was negatively associated with scramble. Semi-urban children displayed better catching skills relative to their urban peers. The standardized residual of skeletal age on chronological age (SAsr) and its interaction with stature and/or body mass accounted for the maximum of 7.0% of variance in FMS and MC over that attributed to body size per se. SAsr alone accounted for a maximum of 9.0% variance in FMS and MC over that attributed to body size per se and interactions between SAsr and body size. This study demonstrates the need to promote FMS, MC, motor performance, and physical activity in children.

Nanotechnological delivery systems for the oral administration of active molecules: Polymeric microparticles and microemulsions applied to anti-inflammatory and anti-infectious drugs

This thesis was devoted to the development of innovative oral delivery systems for two different molecules. In the first part, microparticles (MPs) based on xylan and Eudragit® S- 100 were produced and used to encapsulate 5-aminosalicylic acid for colon delivery. Xylan was extracted from corn cobs and characterized in terms of its physicochemical, rheological and toxicological properties. The polymeric MPs were prepared by interfacial cross-linking polymerization and spray-drying and characterized for their morphology, mean size and distribution, thermal stability, crystallinity, entrapment efficiency and in vitro drug release. MPs with suitable physical characteristics and satisfactory yields were prepared by both methods, although the spray-dried systems showed higher thermal stability. In general, spraydried MPs would be preferable systems due to their thermal stability and absence of toxic agents used in their preparation. However, drug loading and release need to be optimized. In the second part of this thesis, oil-in-water microemulsions (O/W MEs) based on mediumchain triglycerides were formulated as drug carriers and solubility enhancers for amphotericin B (AmB). Phase diagrams were constructed using surfactant blends with hydrophiliclipophilic balance values between 9.7 and 14.4. The drug-free and drug-loaded MEs presented spherical non-aggregated droplets around 80 and 120 nm, respectively, and a low polydispersity index. The incorporation of AmB was high and depended on the volume fraction of the disperse phase. These MEs did not reduce the viability of J774.A1 macrophage-like cells for concentrations up to 25 μg/mL of AmB. Therefore, O/W MEs based on propylene glycol esters of caprylic acid may be considered as suitable delivery systems for AmB

Contribuições à análise de robustez de sistemas de controle usando redes neurais

This work develops a robustness analysis with respect to the modeling errors, being applied to the strategies of indirect control using Artificial Neural Networks - ANN s, belong to the multilayer feedforward perceptron class with on-line training based on gradient method (backpropagation). The presented schemes are called Indirect Hybrid Control and Indirect Neural Control. They are presented two Robustness Theorems, being one for each proposed indirect control scheme, which allow the computation of the maximum steady-state control error that will occur due to the modeling error what is caused by the neural identifier, either for the closed loop configuration having a conventional controller - Indirect Hybrid Control, or for the closed loop configuration having a neural controller - Indirect Neural Control. Considering that the robustness analysis is restrict only to the steady-state plant behavior, this work also includes a stability analysis transcription that is suitable for multilayer perceptron class of ANN s trained with backpropagation algorithm, to assure the convergence and stability of the used neural systems. By other side, the boundness of the initial transient behavior is assured by the assumption that the plant is BIBO (Bounded Input, Bounded Output) stable. The Robustness Theorems were tested on the proposed indirect control strategies, while applied to regulation control of simulated examples using nonlinear plants, and its results are presented

Langmuir and Langmuir-Blodgett films of poly[2-methoxy-5-(n-hexyloxy)-p-phenylenevinylene]

Langmuir films have been fabricated from poly[(2-methoxy-5-n-hexyloxy)-p-phenylenevinylene] (OC1OC6-PPV). The stability and the area per monomer for condensed films indicate the formation of true monolayers with a very small extent of aggregation, which is unusual for polymer films. This is attributed to the linearity of the alkyl side chain. The Y-type Langmuir-Blodgett (LB) films produced from Langmuir films of OC1OC6-PPV have distinctive features compared to those of cast films, probably due to the organization in the LB films whereas the molecules are randomly oriented in cast films. Infrared absorption spectra recorded for both transmission and reflection modes indicate that OC1OC6-PPV molecules are anchored to the substrate by the lateral groups. This is confirmed by the Raman spectrum, in which a distortion of the vinylene group was observed, and by surface enhanced fluorescence (SEF) on an LB monolayer deposited onto Ag nanoparticles. The more homogeneous nature of the LB films in comparison with the case of cast films was demonstrated by optical microscopy and fluorescence measurements where the emission spectra were essentially the same for different regions of an LB film but showed dispersion in cast films. The LB films also displayed reversible photoconductivity.

Molecular and morphological characterization of bis benzimidazo perylene films and surface-enhanced phenomena

Thin solid films of bis benzimidazo perylene (AzoPTCD) were fabricated using physical vapor deposition (PVD) technique. Thermal stability and integrity of the AzoPTCD PVD films during the fabrication (similar to 400 degrees C at 10(-6) Torr) were monitored by Raman scattering. Complementary thermogravimetric results showed that thermal degradation of AzoPTCD occurs at 675 degrees C. The growth of the PVD films was established through UV-vis absorption spectroscopy, and the surface morphology was surveyed by atomic force microscopy (AFM) as a function of the mass thickness. The AzoPTCD molecular organization in these PVD films was determined using the selection rules of infrared absorption spectroscopy (transmission and reflection-absorption modes). Despite the molecular packing, X-ray diffraction revealed that the PVD films are amorphous. Theoretical calculations (density functional theory, B3LYP) were used to assign the vibrational modes in the infrared and Raman spectra. Metallic nanostructures, able to sustain localized surface plasmons (LSP) were used to achieve surface-enhanced resonance Raman scattering (SERRS) and surface-enhanced fluorescence (SEF).

Thermomechanical characterization of PVDF and P(VDF-TrFE) blends containing corn starch and natural rubber

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Physicochemical Characterization and Rheological Behavior Evaluation of the Liquid Crystalline Mesophases Developed with Different Silicones

This article presented physicochemical characterization and rheological behavior evaluation of the liquid crystalline mesophases developed with different silicones. There were prepared 5 ternary systems, which were carried out the determination of the relative density, the electric conductivity and polarized light microscopy analysis, being selected two systems to promote the Preliminary Stability Tests. The results showed that System 1 obtained the major liquid crystal formation and a higher stability. The temperature influences in the systems stability and phases structure. In hot oven, observed oneself the mixture of lamellar and hexagonal phase, for both systems.

Synthesis, characterization and thermal studies on solid 3-methoxybenzoate of some bivalent transition metal ions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Synthesis, characterization and thermal studies of solid state 4-methylbenzylidenepyruvate of some trivalent metal ions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Synthesis and thermal studies of solid state 2-chloro-benzylidenepyruvic acid and its compounds with sodium, aluminium (III), gallium (III) and indium (III) cations

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

In situ application of a cellulose bag and an ion exchanger for differentiation of labile and inert metal species in aquatic systems

This work involved the development and application of a new analytical procedure for in-situ characterization of the lability of metal species in aquatic systems by using a system equipped with a diffusion membrane and cellulose organomodified with p-aminobenzoic acid groups (DM-Cell-PAB). To this end, the DM-Cell-PAB system was prepared by adding cellulose organomodified with p-aminobenzoic acid groups (Cell-PAB) to pre-purified cellulose bags. After the DM-Cell-PAB system was sealed, it was examined in the laboratory. The in-situ application involved immersing the DM-Cell-PAB system in two different rivers, enabling us to study the relative lability of metal species (Cu, Cd, Fe, Mn, and Ni) as a function of time and quantity of exchanger. The procedure is simple and opens up a new perspective for understanding environmental phenomena relating to the complexation, transport, stability, and lability of metal species in aquatic systems rich in organic matter.

Approach combining on-line metal exchange and tangential-flow ultrafiltration for in-situ characterization of metal species in humic hydrocolloids

This paper deals with the development and optimization of an analytical procedure using ultrafiltration and a flow-injection system, and its application in in-situ experiments to characterize the lability and availability of metal species in humic-rich hydrocolloids. The on-line system consists of a tangential flow ultrafiltration device equipped with a 3-kDa filtration membrane. The concentration of free ions in the filtrate was determined by atomic-absorption spectrometry, assuming that metals not complexed by aquatic humic substances (AHS) were separated from the complexed species (M-AHS) retained by the membrane. For optimization, exchange experiments using Cu(II) solutions and AHS solutions doped with the metal ions Ni(II), Mn(II), Fe(III), Cd (II), and Zn(II) were carried out to characterize the stability of the metal-AHS complexes. The new procedure was then applied in-situ at a tributary of the Ribeira do Iguape river (Iguape, São Paulo State, Brazil) and evaluated using the ions Fe(III) and Mn(II), which are considered to be essential constituents of aquatic systems. From the exchange between metal-natural organic matter (M-NOM) and the Cu(II) ions it was concluded that Cu(II) concentrations > 485 mu g L(-1) were necessary to obtain maximum exchange of the complexes Mn-NOM and Fe-NOM, corresponding to 100% Mn and 8% Fe. Moreover, the new analytical procedure is simple and opens up new perspectives for understanding the complexation, transport, stability, and lability of metal species in humic-rich aquatic environments.