Sea level extremes at the coasts of China

Hourly sea level records from 1954 to 2012 at 20 tide gauges at and adjacent to the Chinese coasts are used to analyze extremes in sea level and in tidal residual. Tides and tropical cyclones determine the spatial distribution of sea level maxima. Tidal residual maxima are predominantly determined by tropical cyclones. The 50 year return level is found to be sensitive to the number of extreme events used in the estimation. This is caused by the small number of tropical cyclone events happening each year which lead to other local storm events included thus significantly affecting the estimates. Significant increase in sea level extremes is found with trends in the range between 2.0 and 14.1 mm yr−1. The trends are primarily driven by changes in median sea level but also linked with increases in tidal amplitudes at three stations. Tropical cyclones cause significant interannual variations in the extremes. The interannual variability in the sea level extremes is also influenced by the changes in median sea level at the north and by the 18.6 year nodal cycle at the South China Sea. Neither of PDO and ENSO is found to be an indicator of changes in the size of extremes, but ENSO appears to regulate the number of tropical cyclones that reach the Chinese coasts. Global mean atmospheric temperature appears to be a good descriptor of the interannual variability of tidal residual extremes induced by tropical cyclones but the trend in global temperature is inconsistent with the lack of trend in the residuals.

Late Quaternary lake-level record from northern Eurasia

Lake records from northern Eurasia show regionally coherent patterns of changes during the late Quaternary. Lakes peripheral to the Scandinavian ice sheet were lower than those today but lakes in the Mediterranean zone were high at the glacial maximum, reflecting the dominance of glacial anticyclonic conditions in northern Europe and a southward shift of the Westerlies. The influence of the glacial anticyclonic circulation attenuated through the late glacial period, and the Westerlies gradually shifted northward, such that drier conditions south of the ice sheet were confined to a progressively narrower zone and the Mediterranean became drier. The early Holocene shows a gradual shift to conditions wetter than present in central Asia, associated with the expanded Asian monsoon, and in the Mediterranean, in response to local, monsoon-type circulation. There is no evidence of mid-continental aridity in northern Eurasia during the mid-Holocene. In contrast, the circum-Baltic region was drier, reflecting the increased incidence of blocking anticyclones centered on Scandinavia in summer. There is a gradual transition to modern conditions after ca. 5000 yr B.P. Although these broad-scale patterns are interrupted by shorter term fluctuations, the long-term trends in lake behavior show a clear response to changes in insolation and glaciation.

Leaf trapping and retention of particles by holm oak and other common tree species in Mediterranean urban environments

Holm oak (Quercus ilex), a widespread urban street tree in the Mediterranean region, is widely used as biomonitor of persistent atmospheric pollutants, especially particulate-bound metals. By using lab- and field-based experimental approaches, we compared the leaf-level capacity for particles’ capture and retention between Q. ilex and other common Mediterranean urban trees: Quercus cerris, Platanus × hispanica, Tilia cordata and Olea europaea. All applied methods were effective in quantifying particulate capture and retention, although not univocal in ranking species performances. Distinctive morphological features of leaves led to differences in species’ ability to trap and retain particles of different size classes and to accumulate metals after exposure to traffic in an urban street. Overall, P. × hispanica and T. cordata showed the largest capture potential per unit leaf area for most model particles (Na+ and powder particles), and street-level Cu and Pb, while Q. ilex acted intermediately. After wash-off experiments, P. × hispanica leaves had the greatest retention capacity among the tested species and O. europaea the lowest. We concluded that the Platanus planting could be considered in Mediterranean urban environments due to its efficiency in accumulating and retaining airborne particulates; however, with atmospheric pollution being typically higher in winter, the evergreen Q. ilex represents a better year-round choice to mitigate the impact of airborne particulate pollutants.

Trends in the CERES dataset, 2000–13: the effects of sea ice and jet shifts and comparison to climate models

We review the effects of dynamical variability on clouds and radiation in observations and models and discuss their implications for cloud feedbacks. Jet shifts produce robust meridional dipoles in upper-level clouds and longwave cloud-radiative effect (CRE), but low-level clouds, which do not simply shift with the jet, dominate the shortwave CRE. Because the effect of jet variability on CRE is relatively small, future poleward jet shifts with global warming are only a second-order contribution to the total CRE changes around the midlatitudes, suggesting a dominant role for thermodynamic effects. This implies that constraining the dynamical response is unlikely to reduce the uncertainty in extratropical cloud feedback. However, we argue that uncertainty in the cloud-radiative response does affect the atmospheric circulation response to global warming, by modulating patterns of diabatic forcing. How cloud feedbacks can affect the dynamical response to global warming is an important topic of future research.

Individualistic sensitivities and exposure to climate change explain variation in species' distribution and abundance changes

The responses of animals and plants to recent climate change vary greatly from species to species, but attempts to understand this variation have met with limited success. This has led to concerns that predictions of responses are inherently uncertain because of the complexity of interacting drivers and biotic interactions. However, we show for an exemplar group of 155 Lepidoptera species that about 60% of the variation among species in their abundance trends over the past four decades can be explained by species-specific exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Distribution changes were less well predicted, but nonetheless, up to 53% of the variation was explained. We found that species vary in their overall sensitivity to climate and respond to different components of the climate despite ostensibly experiencing the same climate changes. Hence, species have undergone different levels of population “forcing” (exposure), driving variation among species in their national-scale abundance and distribution trends. We conclude that variation in species’ responses to recent climate change may be more predictable than previously recognized.

Supporting local diversity of habitats and species on farmland: a comparison of three wildlife-friendly schemes

Restoration and maintenance of habitat diversity have been suggested as conservation priorities in farmed landscapes, but how this should be achieved and at what scale are unclear. This study makes a novel comparison of the effectiveness of three wildlife-friendly farming schemes for supporting local habitat diversity and species richness on 12 farms in England. The schemes were: (i) Conservation Grade (Conservation Grade: a prescriptive, non-organic, biodiversity-focused scheme), (ii) organic agriculture and (iii) a baseline of Entry Level Stewardship (Entry Level Stewardship: a flexible widespread government scheme). Conservation Grade farms supported a quarter higher habitat diversity at the 100-m radius scale compared to Entry Level Stewardship farms. Conservation Grade and organic farms both supported a fifth higher habitat diversity at the 250-m radius scale compared to Entry Level Stewardship farms. Habitat diversity at the 100-m and 250-m scales significantly predicted species richness of butterflies and plants. Habitat diversity at the 100-m scale also significantly predicted species richness of birds in winter and solitary bees. There were no significant relationships between habitat diversity and species richness for bumblebees or birds in summer. Butterfly species richness was significantly higher on organic farms (50% higher) and marginally higher on Conservation Grade farms (20% higher), compared with farms in Entry Level Stewardship. Organic farms supported significantly more plant species than Entry Level Stewardship farms (70% higher) but Conservation Grade farms did not (10% higher). There were no significant differences between the three schemes for species richness of bumblebees, solitary bees or birds. Policy implications. The wildlife-friendly farming schemes which included compulsory changes in management, Conservation Grade and organic, were more effective at increasing local habitat diversity and species richness compared with the less prescriptive Entry Level Stewardship scheme. We recommend that wildlife-friendly farming schemes should aim to enhance and maintain high local habitat diversity, through mechanisms such as option packages, where farmers are required to deliver a combination of several habitats.

Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003–2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993–2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.

Fine-scale temporal characterization of trends in soil water dissolved organic carbon and potential drivers

Long-term monitoring of surface water quality has shown increasing concentrations of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) across a large part of the Northern Hemisphere. Several drivers have been implicated including climate change, land management change, nitrogen and sulphur deposition and CO2 enrichment. Analysis of stream water data, supported by evidence from laboratory studies, indicates that an effect of declining sulphur deposition on catchment soil chemistry is likely to be the primary mechanism, but there are relatively few long term soil water chemistry records in the UK with which to investigate this, and other, hypotheses directly. In this paper, we assess temporal relationships between soil solution chemistry and parameters that have been argued to regulate DOC production and, using a unique set of co-located measurements of weather and bulk deposition and soil solution chemistry provided by the UK Environmental Change Network and the Intensive Forest Monitoring Level II Network . We used statistical non-linear trend analysis to investigate these relationships at 5 forested and 4 non-forested sites from 1993 to 2011. Most trends in soil solution DOC concentration were found to be non-linear. Significant increases in DOC occurred mostly prior to 2005. The magnitude and sign of the trends was associated qualitatively with changes in acid deposition, the presence/absence of a forest canopy, soil depth and soil properties. The strongest increases in DOC were seen in acidic forest soils and were most clearly linked to declining anthropogenic acid deposition, while DOC trends at some sites with westerly locations appeared to have been influenced by shorter-term hydrological variation. The results indicate that widespread DOC increases in surface waters observed elsewhere, are most likely dominated by enhanced mobilization of DOC in surficial organic horizons, rather than changes in the soil water chemistry of deeper horizons. While trends in DOC concentrations in surface horizons have flattened out in recent years, further increases may be expected as soil chemistry continues to adjust to declining inputs of acidity.

Assessing species’ habitat associations from occurrence records, standardised monitoring data and expert opinion: a test with British butterflies

Accurate knowledge of species’ habitat associations is important for conservation planning and policy. Assessing habitat associations is a vital precursor to selecting appropriate indicator species for prioritising sites for conservation or assessing trends in habitat quality. However, much existing knowledge is based on qualitative expert opinion or local scale studies, and may not remain accurate across different spatial scales or geographic locations. Data from biological recording schemes have the potential to provide objective measures of habitat association, with the ability to account for spatial variation. We used data on 50 British butterfly species as a test case to investigate the correspondence of data-derived measures of habitat association with expert opinion, from two different butterfly recording schemes. One scheme collected large quantities of occurrence data (c. 3 million records) and the other, lower quantities of standardised monitoring data (c. 1400 sites). We used general linear mixed effects models to derive scores of association with broad-leaf woodland for both datasets and compared them with scores canvassed from experts. Scores derived from occurrence and abundance data both showed strongly positive correlations with expert opinion. However, only for occurrence data did these fell within the range of correlations between experts. Data-derived scores showed regional spatial variation in the strength of butterfly associations with broad-leaf woodland, with a significant latitudinal trend in 26% of species. Sub-sampling of the data suggested a mean sample size of 5000 occurrence records per species to gain an accurate estimation of habitat association, although habitat specialists are likely to be readily detected using several hundred records. Occurrence data from recording schemes can thus provide easily obtained, objective, quantitative measures of habitat association.

On the ability of statistical wind-wave models to capture the variability and long-term trends of the North Atlantic winter wave climate

A dynamical wind-wave climate simulation covering the North Atlantic Ocean and spanning the whole 21st century under the A1B scenario has been compared with a set of statistical projections using atmospheric variables or large scale climate indices as predictors. As a first step, the performance of all statistical models has been evaluated for the present-day climate; namely they have been compared with a dynamical wind-wave hindcast in terms of winter Significant Wave Height (SWH) trends and variance as well as with altimetry data. For the projections, it has been found that statistical models that use wind speed as independent variable predictor are able to capture a larger fraction of the winter SWH inter-annual variability (68% on average) and of the long term changes projected by the dynamical simulation. Conversely, regression models using climate indices, sea level pressure and/or pressure gradient as predictors, account for a smaller SWH variance (from 2.8% to 33%) and do not reproduce the dynamically projected long term trends over the North Atlantic. Investigating the wind-sea and swell components separately, we have found that the combination of two regression models, one for wind-sea waves and another one for the swell component, can improve significantly the wave field projections obtained from single regression models over the North Atlantic.

Trends in systemic lupus erythematosus mortality rates in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil from 1985 to 2004

Objectives To estimate mortality rates and mortality trends from SLE in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Material and methods The official data bank was used to study all deaths occurred from 1985 to 2004 in which SLE was mentioned as the underlying cause of death. Besides the overall mortality rate, the annual gender- and age-specific mortality rates were estimated for each calendar year by age bracket (0-19 years, 20-39 years, 40-59 years and over 60 years) and for the sub-periods 1985-1995 (first) and 1996-2004 (second), by decades. Chi-square test was used to compare the mortality rates between the two periods, as well the mortality rates according to educational level considering years of study. Pearson correlation coefficient test was used to analyse mortality trends. The crude rates were adjusted for age by the direct method, using the standard Brazilian population in 2000. Results A total of 2,601 deaths (90% female) attributed to SLE were analysed. The mean age at death was significantly higher in the second than in the first sub-period (36.6 +/- 15.6 years vs. 33.9 +/- 14.0 years; p<0.001). The overall adjusted mortality rate was 3.8 deaths/million habitants/year for the entire period and 3.4 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the first and 4.0 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the second sub-period (p<0.001). In each calendar year, the mortality rate was significantly lower for the better educated group. Throughout the period, there was a significant increase in mortality rates only among women over 40. Conclusion SLE patients living in the state of Silo Paulo still die at younger ages than those living in developed countries. Our data do not support the theory that there was an improvement in the SLE mortality rate in the last 20 years in the state of Sao Paulo. Socio-economic factors, such as the difficulty to get medical care and adequate treatment, may be the main factors to explain the worst prognosis for our patients.

Trends in Morbid Obesity and in Bariatric Surgeries Covered by the Brazilian Public Health System

Obesity is an increasingly serious public health problem on a global level. Morbid obesity, defined as a body mass index greater than 40 kg/m(2), is associated with increased mortality and a high burden of obesity-related morbidities. To study the prevalence of morbid obesity in Brazil, three national anthropometric surveys were reanalyzed. Data about bariatric surgeries were obtained from the Ministry of Health Hospital Information System, which is available online. A 255% rise in the prevalence of morbid obesity was observed, starting at 0.18% in 1975-1976 and growing to 0.33% in 1989 and 0.64% in 2002-2003. There was a higher rate in the South in the first two surveys, but the prevalence in the Southeast rose steadily, reaching 0.77% in 2002-2003 and overtaking the South. Since 1999, the Brazilian Unified Health System has covered surgical treatment for morbid obesity. From 2000 to 2006, there was a sixfold increase in the number of surgeries, which topped the 2,500 mark in 2006. The geographic distribution of these surgeries is heavily concentrated in the Southeast, the most developed region of Brazil, where there is also the highest prevalence of morbid obesity. This was followed by the Southern region. The figures for the rise in morbid obesity in Brazil are startling, especially the increase among men. This is a situation that calls for further study, alongside measures to encourage the adoption of healthy lifestyles. Preventive measures aimed at slowing down or reversing the obesity epidemic are urgently required.

Ethylene and polyamine production patterns during in vitro shoot organogenesis of two passion fruit species as affected by polyamines and their inhibitor

Levels of ethylene and polyamines (PAs) were measured during organogenesis of hypocotyl explants of two species of passion fruit (Passiflora cincinnata Masters and Passiflora edulis Sims f. flavicarpa Degener `FB-100`) to better understand the relationships of these regulators and their influence on cell differentiation and morphogenesis. Moreover, histological investigation of shoot ontogenesis was conducted to characterize the different events involved in cell redifferentiation and regulation of PA and ethylene levels. A delay was observed in morphogenic responses of P. edulis f. flavicarpa as compared to P. cincinnata, and these changes coincided with production of elevated levels of polyamine and ethylene levels. During differentiation, cells showed high rates of expansion and elongation, and high ethylene levels were associated with high PA levels, suggesting that the two biosynthesis pathways were highly regulated. Moreover, their interaction might be an important factor for determining cell differentiation. The addition of PAs to the culture medium did not promote organogenesis; however, the incorporation of the PA inhibitor methylglyoxal bisguanylhydrazone in the culture medium reduced shoot bud differentiation, suggesting the need to maintaining a minimum level of PAs for morphogenic events to take place.

The Tnt1 family member Retrosol copy number and structure disclose retrotransposon diversification in different Solanum species

Eukaryotic genome expansion/retraction caused by LTR-retrotransposon activity is dependent on the expression of full length copies to trigger efficient transposition and recombination-driven events. The Tnt1 family of retrotransposons has served as a model to evaluate the diversity among closely related elements within Solanaceae species and found that members of the family vary mainly in their U3 region of the long terminal repeats (LTRs). Recovery of a full length genomic copy of Retrosol was performed through a PCR-based approach from wild potato, Solanum oplocense. Further characterization focusing on both LTR sequences of the amplified copy allowed estimating an approximate insertion time at 2 million years ago thus supporting the occurrence of transposition cycles after genus divergence. Copy number of Tnt1-like elements in Solanum species were determined through genomic quantitative PCR whereby results sustain that Retrosol in Solanum species is a low copy number retrotransposon (1-4 copies) while Retrolyc1 has an intermediate copy number (38 copies) in S. peruvianum. Comparative analysis of retrotransposon content revealed no correlation between genome size or ploidy level and Retrosol copy number. The tetraploid cultivated potato with a cellular genome size of 1,715 Mbp harbours similar copy number per monoploid genome than other diploid Solanum species (613-884 Mbp). Conversely, S. peruvianum genome (1,125 Mbp) has a higher copy number. These results point towards a lineage specific dynamic flux regarding the history of amplification/activity of Tnt1-like elements in the genome of Solanum species.

What makes a species central in a cleaning mutualism network?

Mutualisms often form networks of interacting species, characterized by the existence of a central core of species that potentially drive the ecology and the evolution of the whole community. Centrality measures allow quantification of how central or peripheral a species is within a network, thus informing about the role of each species in network organization, dynamics, and stability. In the present study we addressed the question whether the structural position of species in the network (i.e. their topological importance) relates to their ecological traits. We studied interactions between cleaner and client reef fishes to identify central and peripheral species within a mutualistic network, and investigated five ecological correlates. We used three measures to estimate the level of centrality of a species for distinct structural patterns, such as the number of interactions and the structural proximity to other species. Through the use of a principal component analysis (PCA) we observed that the centrality measures were highly correlated (92.5%) in the studied network, which indicates that the same species plays a similar role for the different structural patterns. Three cleaner and ten client species had positive values of centrality, which suggests that these species are modulating ecological and evolutionary dynamics within the network. Higher centralities were related to higher abundances and feeding habits for client fishes, but not for cleaners. The high correlation between centrality measures in the present study is likely related to the nested structure of the cleaning network. The cleaner species` set, by having central species that are not necessarily the most abundant ones, bears potentially more vulnerable points for network cohesiveness. Additionally, the present study generalizes previous findings for plant-animal mutualisms, as it shows that the structure of marine mutualisms is also related to a complex interplay between abundance and niche-related features.