943 resultados para spatio-temporal models
Resumo:
The organophosphate temephos has been the main insecticide used against larvae of the dengue and yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) in Brazil since the mid-1980s. Reports of resistance date back to 1995; however, no systematic reports of widespread temephos resistance have occurred to date. As resistance investigation is paramount for strategic decision-making by health officials, our objective here was to investigate the spatial and temporal spread of temephos resistance in Ae. aegypti in Brazil for the last 12 years using discriminating temephos concentrations and the bioassay protocols of the World Health Organization. The mortality results obtained were subjected to spatial analysis for distance interpolation using semi-variance models to generate maps that depict the spread of temephos resistance in Brazil since 1999. The problem has been expanding. Since 2002-2003, approximately half the country has exhibited mosquito populations resistant to temephos. The frequency of temephos resistance and, likely, control failures, which start when the insecticide mortality level drops below 80%, has increased even further since 2004. Few parts of Brazil are able to achieve the target 80% efficacy threshold by 2010/2011, resulting in a significant risk of control failure by temephos in most of the country. The widespread resistance to temephos in Brazilian Ae. aegypti populations greatly compromise effective mosquito control efforts using this insecticide and indicates the urgent need to identify alternative insecticides aided by the preventive elimination of potential mosquito breeding sites.
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Theory predicts that temporal variability plays an important role in the evolution of life histories, but empirical studies evaluating this prediction are rare. In constant environments, fitness can be measured by the population growth rate lambda, and the sensitivity of lambda to changes in fitness components estimates selection on these traits. In variable environments, fitness is measured by the stochastic growth rate lambda(S), and stochastic sensitivities estimate selection pressure. Here we examine age-specific schedules for reproduction and survival in a barn owl population (Tyto alba). We estimated how temporal variability affected fitness and selection, accounting for sampling variance. Despite large sample sizes of old individuals, we found no strong evidence for senescence. The most variable fitness components were associated with reproduction. Survival was less variable. Stochastic simulations showed that the observed variation decreased fitness by about 30%, but the sensitivities of lambda and lambda(S) to changes in all fitness components were almost equal, suggesting that temporal variation had negligible effects on selection. We obtained these results despite high observed variability in the fitness components and relatively short generation time of the study organism, a situation in which temporal variability should be particularly important for natural selection and early senescence is expected.
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The lithium-pilocarpine model mimics most features of human temporal lobe epilepsy. Following our prior studies of cerebral metabolic changes, here we explored the expression of transporters for glucose (GLUT1 and GLUT3) and monocarboxylates (MCT1 and MCT2) during and after status epilepticus (SE) induced by lithium-pilocarpine in PN10, PN21, and adult rats. In situ hybridization was used to study the expression of transporter mRNAs during the acute phase (1, 4, 12 and 24h of SE), the latent phase, and the early and late chronic phases. During SE, GLUT1 expression was increased throughout the brain between 1 and 12h of SE, more strongly in adult rats; GLUT3 increased only transiently, at 1 and 4h of SE and mainly in PN10 rats; MCT1 was increased at all ages but 5-10-fold more in adult than in immature rats; MCT2 expression increased mainly in adult rats. At all ages, MCT1 and MCT2 up-regulation was limited to the circuit of seizures while GLUT1 and GLUT3 changes were more widespread. During the latent and chronic phases, the expression of nutrient transporters was normal in PN10 rats. In PN21 rats, GLUT1 was up-regulated in all brain regions. In contrast, in adult rats GLUT1 expression was down-regulated in the piriform cortex, hilus and CA1 as a result of extensive neuronal death. The changes in nutrient transporter expression reported here further support previous findings in other experimental models demonstrating rapid transcriptional responses to marked changes in cerebral energetic/glucose demand.
Resumo:
Accurate perception of the order of occurrence of sensory information is critical for the building up of coherent representations of the external world from ongoing flows of sensory inputs. While some psychophysical evidence reports that performance on temporal perception can improve, the underlying neural mechanisms remain unresolved. Using electrical neuroimaging analyses of auditory evoked potentials (AEPs), we identified the brain dynamics and mechanism supporting improvements in auditory temporal order judgment (TOJ) during the course of the first vs. latter half of the experiment. Training-induced changes in brain activity were first evident 43-76 ms post stimulus onset and followed from topographic, rather than pure strength, AEP modulations. Improvements in auditory TOJ accuracy thus followed from changes in the configuration of the underlying brain networks during the initial stages of sensory processing. Source estimations revealed an increase in the lateralization of initially bilateral posterior sylvian region (PSR) responses at the beginning of the experiment to left-hemisphere dominance at its end. Further supporting the critical role of left and right PSR in auditory TOJ proficiency, as the experiment progressed, responses in the left and right PSR went from being correlated to un-correlated. These collective findings provide insights on the neurophysiologic mechanism and plasticity of temporal processing of sounds and are consistent with models based on spike timing dependent plasticity.
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Geographical body size variation has long interested evolutionary biologists, and a range of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the observed patterns. It is considered to be more puzzling in ectotherms than in endotherms, and integrative approaches are necessary for testing non-exclusive alternative mechanisms. Using lacertid lizards as a model, we adopted an integrative approach, testing different hypotheses for both sexes while incorporating temporal, spatial, and phylogenetic autocorrelation at the individual level. We used data on the Spanish Sand Racer species group from a field survey to disentangle different sources of body size variation through environmental and individual genetic data, while accounting for temporal and spatial autocorrelation. A variation partitioning method was applied to separate independent and shared components of ecology and phylogeny, and estimated their significance. Then, we fed-back our models by controlling for relevant independent components. The pattern was consistent with the geographical Bergmann's cline and the experimental temperature-size rule: adults were larger at lower temperatures (and/or higher elevations). This result was confirmed with additional multi-year independent data-set derived from the literature. Variation partitioning showed no sex differences in phylogenetic inertia but showed sex differences in the independent component of ecology; primarily due to growth differences. Interestingly, only after controlling for independent components did primary productivity also emerge as an important predictor explaining size variation in both sexes. This study highlights the importance of integrating individual-based genetic information, relevant ecological parameters, and temporal and spatial autocorrelation in sex-specific models to detect potentially important hidden effects. Our individual-based approach devoted to extract and control for independent components was useful to reveal hidden effects linked with alternative non-exclusive hypothesis, such as those of primary productivity. Also, including measurement date allowed disentangling and controlling for short-term temporal autocorrelation reflecting sex-specific growth plasticity.
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The study of organisms and their resources is critical to further understanding population dynamics in space and time. Although drosophilids have been widely used as biological models, their relationship with breeding and feeding sites has received little attention. Here, we investigate drosophilids breeding in fruits in the Brazilian Savanna, in two contrasting vegetation types, throughout 16 months. Specifically, larval assemblages were compared between savannas and forests, as well as between rainy and dry seasons. The relationships between resource availability and drosophilid abundance and richness were also tested. The community (4,022 drosophilids of 23 species and 2,496 fruits of 57 plant taxa) varied widely in space and time. Drosophilid assemblages experienced a strong bottleneck during the dry season, decreasing to only 0.5% of the abundance of the rainy season. Additionally, savannas displayed lower richness and higher abundance than the forests, and were dominated by exotic species. Both differences in larval assemblages throughout the year and between savannas and gallery forests are consistent with those previously seen in adults. Although the causes of this dynamic are clearly multifactorial, resource availability (richness and abundance of rotten fruits) was a good predictor of the fly assemblage structure.
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Aim The imperfect detection of species may lead to erroneous conclusions about species-environment relationships. Accuracy in species detection usually requires temporal replication at sampling sites, a time-consuming and costly monitoring scheme. Here, we applied a lower-cost alternative based on a double-sampling approach to incorporate the reliability of species detection into regression-based species distribution modelling.Location Doñana National Park (south-western Spain).Methods Using species-specific monthly detection probabilities, we estimated the detection reliability as the probability of having detected the species given the species-specific survey time. Such reliability estimates were used to account explicitly for data uncertainty by weighting each absence. We illustrated how this novel framework can be used to evaluate four competing hypotheses as to what constitutes primary environmental control of amphibian distribution: breeding habitat, aestivating habitat, spatial distribution of surrounding habitats and/or major ecosystems zonation. The study was conducted on six pond-breeding amphibian species during a 4-year period.Results Non-detections should not be considered equivalent to real absences, as their reliability varied considerably. The occurrence of Hyla meridionalis and Triturus pygmaeus was related to a particular major ecosystem of the study area, where suitable habitat for these species seemed to be widely available. Characteristics of the breeding habitat (area and hydroperiod) were of high importance for the occurrence of Pelobates cultripes and Pleurodeles waltl. Terrestrial characteristics were the most important predictors of the occurrence of Discoglossus galganoi and Lissotriton boscai, along with spatial distribution of breeding habitats for the last species.Main conclusions We did not find a single best supported hypothesis valid for all species, which stresses the importance of multiscale and multifactor approaches. More importantly, this study shows that estimating the reliability of non-detection records, an exercise that had been previously seen as a naïve goal in species distribution modelling, is feasible and could be promoted in future studies, at least in comparable systems.
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To study different temporal components on cancer mortality (age, period and cohort) methods of graphic representation were applied to Swiss mortality data from 1950 to 1984. Maps using continuous slopes ("contour maps") and based on eight tones of grey according to the absolute distribution of rates were used to represent the surfaces defined by the matrix of various age-specific rates. Further, progressively more complex regression surface equations were defined, on the basis of two independent variables (age/cohort) and a dependent one (each age-specific mortality rate). General patterns of trends in cancer mortality were thus identified, permitting definition of important cohort (e.g., upwards for lung and other tobacco-related neoplasms, or downwards for stomach) or period (e.g., downwards for intestines or thyroid cancers) effects, besides the major underlying age component. For most cancer sites, even the lower order (1st to 3rd) models utilised provided excellent fitting, allowing immediate identification of the residuals (e.g., high or low mortality points) as well as estimates of first-order interactions between the three factors, although the parameters of the main effects remained still undetermined. Thus, the method should be essentially used as summary guide to illustrate and understand the general patterns of age, period and cohort effects in (cancer) mortality, although they cannot conceptually solve the inherent problem of identifiability of the three components.
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The method of stochastic dynamic programming is widely used in ecology of behavior, but has some imperfections because of use of temporal limits. The authors presented an alternative approach based on the methods of the theory of restoration. Suggested method uses cumulative energy reserves per time unit as a criterium, that leads to stationary cycles in the area of states. This approach allows to study the optimal feeding by analytic methods.
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Exact solutions to FokkerPlanck equations with nonlinear drift are considered. Applications of these exact solutions for concrete models are studied. We arrive at the conclusion that for certain drifts we obtain divergent moments (and infinite relaxation time) if the diffusion process can be extended without any obstacle to the whole space. But if we introduce a potential barrier that limits the diffusion process, moments converge with a finite relaxation time.
Resumo:
Application of semi-distributed hydrological models to large, heterogeneous watersheds deals with several problems. On one hand, the spatial and temporal variability in catchment features should be adequately represented in the model parameterization, while maintaining the model complexity in an acceptable level to take advantage of state-of-the-art calibration techniques. On the other hand, model complexity enhances uncertainty in adjusted model parameter values, therefore increasing uncertainty in the water routing across the watershed. This is critical for water quality applications, where not only streamflow, but also a reliable estimation of the surface versus subsurface contributions to the runoff is needed. In this study, we show how a regularized inversion procedure combined with a multiobjective function calibration strategy successfully solves the parameterization of a complex application of a water quality-oriented hydrological model. The final value of several optimized parameters showed significant and consistentdifferences across geological and landscape features. Although the number of optimized parameters was significantly increased by the spatial and temporal discretization of adjustable parameters, the uncertainty in water routing results remained at reasonable values. In addition, a stepwise numerical analysis showed that the effects on calibration performance due to inclusion of different data types in the objective function could be inextricably linked. Thus caution should be taken when adding or removing data from an aggregated objective function.
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PURPOSE OF REVIEW: HIV targets primary CD4(+) T cells. The virus depends on the physiological state of its target cells for efficient replication, and, in turn, viral infection perturbs the cellular state significantly. Identifying the virus-host interactions that drive these dynamic changes is important for a better understanding of viral pathogenesis and persistence. The present review focuses on experimental and computational approaches to study the dynamics of viral replication and latency. RECENT FINDINGS: It was recently shown that only a fraction of the inducible latently infected reservoirs are successfully induced upon stimulation in ex-vivo models while additional rounds of stimulation make allowance for reactivation of more latently infected cells. This highlights the potential role of treatment duration and timing as important factors for successful reactivation of latently infected cells. The dynamics of HIV productive infection and latency have been investigated using transcriptome and proteome data. The cellular activation state has shown to be a major determinant of viral reactivation success. Mathematical models of latency have been used to explore the dynamics of the latent viral reservoir decay. SUMMARY: Timing is an important component of biological interactions. Temporal analyses covering aspects of viral life cycle are essential for gathering a comprehensive picture of HIV interaction with the host cell and untangling the complexity of latency. Understanding the dynamic changes tipping the balance between success and failure of HIV particle production might be key to eradicate the viral reservoir.
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This study aimed to establish relationships between maize yield and rainfall on different temporal and spatial scales, in order to provide a basis for crop monitoring and modelling. A 16-year series of maize yield and daily rainfall from 11 municipalities and micro-regions of Rio Grande do Sul State was used. Correlation and regression analyses were used to determine associations between crop yield and rainfall for the entire crop cycle, from tasseling to 30 days after, and from 5 days before tasseling to 40 days after. Close relationships between maize yield and rainfall were found, particularly during the reproductive period (45-day period comprising the flowering and grain filling). Relationships were closer on a regional scale than at smaller scales. Implications of the crop-rainfall relationships for crop modelling are discussed.
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Several approaches have been developed to estimate both the relative and absolute rates of speciation and extinction within clades based on molecular phylogenetic reconstructions of evolutionary relationships, according to an underlying model of diversification. However, the macroevolutionary models established for eukaryotes have scarcely been used with prokaryotes. We have investigated the rate and pattern of cladogenesis in the genus Aeromonas (γ-Proteobacteria, Proteobacteria, Bacteria) using the sequences of five housekeeping genes and an uncorrelated relaxed-clock approach. To our knowledge, until now this analysis has never been applied to all the species described in a bacterial genus and thus opens up the possibility of establishing models of speciation from sequence data commonly used in phylogenetic studies of prokaryotes. Our results suggest that the genus Aeromonas began to diverge between 248 and 266 million years ago, exhibiting a constant divergence rate through the Phanerozoic, which could be described as a pure birth process.