Diet and the development of atherosclerosis: a whole-diet approach from childhood to adulthood

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of mortality in the world. Studies of the impact of single nutrients on the risk for CVD have often provided inconclusive results, and recent research in nutritional epidemiology with a more holistic whole-diet approach has proven fruitful. Moreover, dietary habits in childhood and adolescence may play a role in later health and disease, either independently or by tracking into adulthood. The main aims of this study were to find childhood and adulthood determinants of adulthood diet, to identify dietary patterns present among the study population and to study the associations between long-term food choices and cardiovascular health in young Finnish adults. The study is a part of the multidisciplinary Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study, which is an ongoing, prospective cohort study with a 21-year follow-up. At baseline in 1980, the subjects were children and adolescents aged 3 to 18 years (n included in this study = 1768), and young adults aged 24 to 39 years at the latest follow-up study in 2001 (n = 1037). Food consumption and nutrient intakes were assessed with repeated 48-hour dietary recalls. Other determinations have included comprehensive risk factor assessments using blood tests, physical measurements and questionnaires. In the latest follow-up, ultrasound examinations were performed to study early atherosclerotic vascular changes. The average intakes showed substantial changes since 1980. Intakes of fat and saturated fat had decreased, whereas the consumption of fruits and vegetables had increased. Intake of fat and consumption of vegetables in childhood and physical activity in adulthood were important health behavioural determinants of adult diet. Additionally, a principal component analysis was conducted to identify major dietary patterns at each study point. A similar set of two major patterns was recognised throughout the study. The traditional dietary pattern positively correlated with the consumption of traditional Finnish foods, such as rye, potatoes, milk, butter, sausages and coffee, and negatively correlated with fruit, berries and dairy products other than milk. This type of diet was independently associated with several risk factors of CVD, such as total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, apolipoprotein B and C-reactive protein concentrations among both genders, as well as with systolic blood pressure and insulin levels among women. The traditional pattern was also independently associated with intima media thickness (IMT), a subclinical predictor of CVD, in men but not in women. The health-conscious pattern, predominant among female subjects, non-smokers and urbanites, was characterised by more health-conscious food choices such as vegetables, legumes and nuts, tea, rye, fish, cheese and other dairy products, as well as by the consumption of alcoholic beverages. This pattern was inversely, but less strongly, associated with cardiovascular risk factors. Tracking of the dietary pattern scores was observed, particularly among subjects who were adolescents at baseline. Moreover, a long-term high intake of protein concurrent with a low intake of fat was positively associated with IMT. These findings suggest that food behaviour and food choices are to some extent established as early as in childhood or adolescence and may significantly track into adulthood. Long-term adherence to traditional food choices seems to increase the risk for developing CVD, especially among men. Those with intentional or unintentional low fat diets, but with high intake of protein may also be at increased risk for CVD. The findings offer practical, food-based information on the relationship between diet and CVD and encourage further use of the whole-diet approach in epidemiological research. The results support earlier findings that long-term food choices play a role in the development of CVD. The apparent influence of childhood habits is important to bear in mind when planning educational strategies for the primary prevention of CVD. Further studies on food choices over the entire lifespan are needed.

QTLs for water absorption and flour yield identified in the doubled haploid wheat population Lang/QT8766

Two key quality traits in milling wheat are flour yield (FY) and water absorption (WA). Ideally, breeders would prefer to use markers to select promising lines rather than time consuming rheology tests. In this study, we measured FY and WA on a wheat mapping population (Lang/QT8766) of 162 individuals grown in two replicated field experiments at three locations over 2 years. We also carried out near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) predictions on the grain for these traits to see if NIRS phenotypic data could provide useful mapping results when compared to the reference phenotypic data. Several common QTLs were identified for FY and WA by both sets of data. The QTL on chromosome 4D was a consistently recurring QTL region for both traits. The QTL on chromosome 2A was positively linked to protein content which was supported by genetic correlation data. The results also indicated it was possible to obtain useful phenotypic data for mapping FY and WA using NIRS data. This would save time and costs as NIRS is quicker and cheaper than current rheology methods.

Chronic disease risks and use of a smartphone application during a physical activity and dietary intervention in Australian truck drivers

- Objective This study examined chronic disease risks and the use of a smartphone activity tracking application during an intervention in Australian truck drivers (April-October 2014). - Methods Forty-four men (mean age=47.5 [SD 9.8] years) completed baseline health measures, and were subsequently offered access to a free wrist-worn activity tracker and smartphone application (Jawbone UP) to monitor step counts and dietary choices during a 20-week intervention. Chronic disease risks were evaluated against guidelines; weekly step count and dietary logs registered by drivers in the application were analysed to evaluate use of the Jawbone UP. - Results Chronic disease risks were high (e.g. 97% high waist circumference [≥94 cm]). Eighteen drivers (41%) did not start the intervention; smartphone technical barriers were the main reason for drop out. Across 20-weeks, drivers who used the Jawbone UP logged step counts for an average of 6 [SD 1] days/week; mean step counts remained consistent across the intervention (weeks 1–4=8,743[SD 2,867] steps/day; weeks 17–20=8,994[SD 3,478] steps/day). The median number of dietary logs significantly decreased from start (17 [IQR 38] logs/weeks) to end of the intervention (0 [IQR 23] logs/week; p<0.01); the median proportion of healthy diet choices relative to total diet choices logged increased across the intervention (weeks 1–4=38[IQR 21]%; weeks 17–20=58[IQR 18]%). - Conclusions Step counts were more successfully monitored than dietary choices in those drivers who used the Jawbone UP. - Implications Smartphone technology facilitated active living and healthy dietary choices, but also prohibited intervention engagement in a number of these high-risk Australian truck drivers.

Determinants of farmer retirement and farm succession in Finland

In the past decade, the Finnish agricultural sector has undergone rapid structural changes. The number of farms has decreased and the average farm size has increased when the number of farms transferred to new entrants has decreased. Part of the structural change in agriculture is manifested in early retirement programmes. In studying farmers exit behaviour in different countries, institutional differences, incentive programmes and constraints are found to matter. In Finland, farmers early retirement programmes were first introduced in 1974 and, during the last ten years, they have been carried out within the European Union framework for these programmes. The early retirement benefits are farmer specific and de-pend on the level of pension insurance the farmer has paid over his active farming years. In order to predict the future development of the agricultural sector, farmers have been frequently asked about their future plans and their plans for succession. However, the plans the farmers made for succession have been found to be time inconsistent. This study estimates the value of farmers stated succession plans in predicting revealed succession decisions. A stated succession plan exists when a farmer answers in a survey questionnaire that the farm is going to be transferred to a new entrant within a five-year period. The succession is revealed when the farm is transferred to a suc-cessor. Stated and revealed behaviour was estimated as a recursive Binomial Probit Model, which accounts for the censoring of the decision variables and controls for a potential correlation between the two equations. The results suggest that the succession plans, as stated by elderly farmers in the questionnaires, do not provide information that is significant and valuable in predicting true, com-pleted successions. Therefore, farmer exit should be analysed based on observed behaviour rather than on stated plans and intentions. As farm retirement plays a crucial role in determining the characteristics of structural change in agriculture, it is important to establish the factors which determine an exit from farming among eld-erly farmers and how off-farm income and income losses affect their exit choices. In this study, the observed choice of pension scheme by elderly farmers was analysed by a bivariate probit model. Despite some variations in significance and the effects of each factor, the ages of the farmer and spouse, the age and number of potential successors, farm size, income loss when retiring and the location of the farm together with the production line were found to be the most important determi-nants of early retirement and the transfer or closure of farms. Recently, the labour status of the spouse has been found to contribute significantly to individual retirement decisions. In this study, the effect of spousal retirement and economic incentives related to the timing of a farming couple s early retirement decision were analysed with a duration model. The results suggest that an expected pension in particular advances farm transfers. It was found that on farms operated by a couple, both early retirement and farm succession took place more often than on farms operated by a single person. However, the existence of a spouse delayed the timing of early retirement. Farming couples were found to co-ordinate their early retirement decisions when they both exit through agricultural retirement programmes, but such a co-ordination did not exist when one of the spouses retired under other pension schemes. Besides changes in the agricultural structure, the share and amount of off-farm income of a farm family s total income has also increased. In the study, the effect of off-farm income on farmers retirement decisions, in addition to other financial factors, was analysed. The unknown parameters were first estimated by a switching-type multivariate probit model and then by the simulated maxi-mum likelihood (SML) method, controlling for farmer specific fixed effects and serial correlation of the errors. The results suggest that elderly farmers off-farm income is a significant determinant in a farmer s choice to exit and close down the farm. However, off-farm income only has a short term effect on structural changes in agriculture since it does not significantly contribute to the timing of farm successions.

Keittiömaailman matkassa 20 vuotta : Tutkimus erään keittiökalustevalmistajan johtavan markkina-aseman rakentamisesta ja säilyttämisestä

A View into the World of Kitchen: Development and retention of a leading position in the market of kitchen interiors - a case study of 20 years. This study focuses on the development of a kitchen interiors company, presently called Novart Inc., into the leading company of the industry from 1980´s to the present. The objective of the study is to describe the effects of strategic choices, the decisions of the management and the owner´s direction and control to the build up and the retaining of the leading position in the market. From theory point of view, strategic choices refer to com-pany purchases as corporate-level strategies, and business and marketing strategies. The empirical research was carried out in two phases and it is based on various company documents and records, and on the intensive interviews of seven key executives in the company. An abductive research design was utilized. The company gained the leading position in the kitchen market in Finland by company purchases, and the company has been able to retain the position. Firstly the goal was to expand to retail market and, secondly, the company has maintained the balance of supply and demand by closing the purchased production units when needed. The simultaneous use of these two strategic goals is a kind of a new observation, and the strategy may be suitable only for market leaders. During the latter part of the research period the strategy of com-pany purchases has been abandoned and the leading position in the market has been main-tained by developing systematically business and marketing capability. In the business and marketing strategies the distribution channels and the brands have been emphasized. During the research period the company has almost totally abandoned the long distribution channels and started to use its own channels built and named after the main brands. These are A la Carte, Parma and Petra. At the moment, in the beginning of the 21st century, a new distribution channel, the concept of the Kitchen World, is being built in addition to the channels mentioned above. The management´s decision making and the implementation the decisions have been well-considered. The executives emphasized the valuing of the importance of the decisions dif-ferently except the two decisions named the most important ones, i.e., the decisions to start own production of the raw material and to concentrate the business only to one company. The executive staff has also succeeded in managing crisis and threats of bankruptcy, and the company has been managed profitable. During all the four terms of ownership: Puolimatka Corporation, the Hankkija/Novera Corporation, the ownership period of the "bank", and the Nobia Corporate the ownership direction and control has been somewhat different. All the owners have paid attention to economic issues. The direction of cash flows and investments was at its strongest during the Hankkija/Novera term. For the last owner Nobia the production and marketing of the kitchen interiors has been the core business, which thus has strengthened the business and marketing capabilities of the target company of this research. A common denominator during all the four terms of ownership has been owners' trust gained by the professional skills of the management of the target company. This has lead to greater independence of the management of the company and less owners´ direction. Keywords: leading position, marketing strategy, management decisions, acquisition, corporate governance

Sources of vase life variation in cut roses: A review

n determining vase life (VL), it is often not considered that the measured VL in a particular experiment may greatly depend on both the preharvest and evaluation environmental conditions. This makes the comparison between studies difficult and may lead to erroneous interpretation of results. In this review, we critically discuss the effect of the growth environment on the VL of cut roses. This effect is mainly related to changes in stomatal responsiveness, regulating water loss, whereas cut flower carbohydrate status appears less critical. When comparing cultivars, postharvest water loss and VL often show no correlation, indicating that components such as variation in the tissue resistance to cavitate and/or collapse at low water potential play an important role in the incidence of water stress symptoms. The effect of the growth environment on these components remains unknown. Botrytis cinerea sporulation and infection, as well as cut rose susceptibility to the pathogen are also affected by the growth environment, with the latter being largely unexplored. A huge variability in the choices made with respect to the experimental setup (harvest/conditioning methods, test room conditions and VL terminating symptoms) is reported. We highlight that these decisions, though frequently overlooked, influence the outcome of the study. Specifications for each of these factors are proposed as necessary to achieve a common VL protocol. Documentation of both preharvest conditions and a number of postharvest factors, including the test room conditions, is recommended not only for assisting comparisons between studies, but also to identify factors with major effects on VL.

Bringing up Children Gran’s Way: Insights from a research project on Indigenous child and youth mental health

Background In 2000, the Mater Child and Youth Mental Health Service Indigenous consultant saw that Indigenous families were isolated from kinship networks following the assimilation policy and clinicians were largely unaware of these socio-cultural histories. Experiences of marginalisation by mainstream society and services were exacerbated by assumptions clinicians made about this population. To enhance Mater’s care the consultant undertook research with Indigenous Elders. The project, “Bringing up Children Gran’s Way”, on which the presenter is the research advisor, was funded by AIATSIS. Aims Increase service quality Improve staff confidence, skills and satisfaction working with this population Promote the wellbeing of Indigenous families Acknowledge the significance of Elders and extended family networks. Methods Over 2006/07 the team used narrative and Indigenous methodologies, (e.g. yarning circles and the use of Indigenous research staff) to arrange and audio-record structured interviews with 19 Aboriginal Elders, on growing up and parenting. The participants were recruited by the Indigenous consultant and gave written consent, following ethical approval and information giving. The team immersed themselves in the material by repeated reading of the transcripts to note recurring themes in Elders’ narratives. Findings The recurring themes included the importance of cultural protocols and extended family; impacts of being ‘under the Act and stories of surviving change; culture, spiritualty and religion; trans-generational impacts; childrearing and the need to reconcile with Elders. Discussion The narratives show Elders resilience in the face of enduring impact of policies of genocide and assimilation. Clinicians need to approach their work with a deeper understanding of the diversity of clients’ social experience and cultural identity. Clinicians need to examine their own cultural assumptions about this population. Conclusion The dissemination of the knowledge and experience of Elders is a matter of social justice and crucial for the well-being of future generations and for improved service access.

Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031–2060 compared to a baseline of 1961–1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16–20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential adaptation to ongoing climate changes. Easing nitrogen stress via increasing fertilizer inputs would increase absolute yields, but also make the crops more responsive to climate stresses, thus enhancing the negative impacts of climate change in a relative sense. Finally, CO2 fertilization would significantly offset the negative climate

Atomic Layer Deposition and Photocatalytic Properties of Titanium Dioxide Thin Films

Photocatalytic TiO2 thin films can be highly useful in many environments and applications. They can be used as self-cleaning coatings on top of glass, tiles and steel to reduce the amount of fouling on these surfaces. Photocatalytic TiO2 surfaces have antimicrobial properties making them potentially useful in hospitals, bathrooms and many other places where microbes may cause problems. TiO2 photocatalysts can also be used to clean contaminated water and air. Photocatalytic oxidation and reduction reactions proceed on TiO2 surfaces under irradiation of UV light meaning that sunlight and even normal indoor lighting can be utilized. In order to improve the photocatalytic properties of TiO2 materials even further, various modification methods have been explored. Doping with elements such as nitrogen, sulfur and fluorine, and preparation of different kinds of composites are typical approaches that have been employed. Photocatalytic TiO2 nanotubes and other nanostructures are gaining interest as well. Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) is a chemical gas phase thin film deposition method with strong roots in Finland. This unique modification of the common Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) method is based on alternate supply of precursor vapors to the substrate which forces the film growth reactions to proceed only on the surface in a highly controlled manner. ALD gives easy and accurate film thickness control, excellent large area uniformity and unparalleled conformality on complex shaped substrates. These characteristics have recently led to several breakthroughs in microelectronics, nanotechnology and many other areas. In this work, the utilization of ALD to prepare photocatalytic TiO2 thin films was studied in detail. Undoped as well as nitrogen, sulfur and fluorine doped TiO2 thin films were prepared and thoroughly characterized. ALD prepared undoped TiO2 films were shown to exhibit good photocatalytic activities. Of the studied dopants, sulfur and fluorine were identified as much better choices than nitrogen. Nanostructured TiO2 photocatalysts were prepared through template directed deposition on various complex shaped substrates by exploiting the good qualities of ALD. A clear enhancement in the photocatalytic activity was achieved with these nanostructures. Several new ALD processes were also developed in this work. TiO2 processes based on two new titanium precursors, Ti(OMe)4 and TiF4, were shown to exhibit saturative ALD-type of growth when water was used as the other precursor. In addition, TiS2 thin films were prepared for the first time by ALD using TiCl4 and H2S as precursors. Ti1-xNbxOy and Ti1-xTaxOy transparent conducting oxide films were prepared successfully by ALD and post-deposition annealing. Highly unusual, explosive crystallization behaviour occurred in these mixed oxides which resulted in anatase crystals with lateral dimensions over 1000 times the film thickness.

Struggles over resources and representations in territorial conflicts in the Northern Autonomous Atlantic Region (RAAN), Nicaragua

Territoriality is a central issue in indigenous peoples struggles. The territorial struggles involve struggles over the control of natural resources and over political participation and representation, but also over the perception of territorial rights and the symbolic representation of the territory. These struggles are carried through both in material and symbolic ways through recurring to different discourses and representations that provide legitimation for the territorial claims of the group. The study is located in the Northern Autonomous Atlantic Region of Nicaragua. The study concerns the territorial strategies, conceptions and practices of the indigenous people and other actors. Territorial conflicts exist between the autonomous region and the central government of Nicaragua, between mestizo settlers and indigenous people, between different indigenous groups, and between these and development agents such as conservation projects. The study focuses on how territorial discourses and representations are used to legitimate territorial control. Environmental, historical and cartographical discourses are the most important discourses recurred to. The influence of discourses and representations on the territorial practices and policies of the different actors, the links between the local struggles and global processes, and the broader structural factors impacting on the territorial struggles are also analysed. Among the structural factors are the problems related to land tenure and management and the use of natural resources, the advance of the agricultural frontier, the institutional weaknesses of the central and regional governments and the legislative processes. The territorial discourses are both recurred to in a strategic way and also grounded in local ideals and practices. The discourses have produced real effects for example in legislation, land tenure systems, political representation and environmental practices. Although the use of discourses and representations are an important power tool in territorial struggles, territorial control cannot be effectively accomplished merely through representing territorial claims in a legitimate way or through reforming legislation, as the conflicts are also largely a result of structural factors affecting the region. The fieldwork was carried out during a total of twelve months between 2000 and 2002. The research methods used were semi-structured interviews, participant observation and participatory research methods. A broad range of literary sources were also used to collect data. The study is located within the field of critical political geography with a discursive political ecology approach. It can be called a critical realist approach to the discursive analysis of indigenous territoriality.

The evolution of entrepreneurial learning

- Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present an evolutionary perspective on entrepreneurial learning, whilst also accounting for fundamental ecological processes, by focusing on the development of key recurring, knowledge components within nascent and growing small businesses. - Design/methodology/approach The paper relates key developments within the organizational evolution literature to research on entrepreneurial learning, with arguments presented in favor of adopting a multi‐level co‐evolutionary perspective that captures and explains hidden ecological process, such as niche‐construction. - Findings It is argued in the paper that such a multi‐level focus on key recurring knowledge components can shed new light on the process of entrepreneurial learning and lead to the cross‐fertilization of ideas across different domains of study, by offering researchers the opportunity to use the framework of variation‐selection‐retention to develop a multi‐level representation of organizational and entrepreneurial learning. - Originality/value Entrepreneurial learning viewed in this way, as a multi‐level struggle for survival amongst competing knowledge components, can provide entrepreneurs with a set of evolutionary heuristics as they re‐interpret their understanding of the evolution of their business.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Choosing physical science courses: The importance of cultural and social capital in the enrolment decisions of high achieving students

This paper reports and discusses findings from a recent study which explored the science enrolment decisions of high achieving, or ‘science proficient’ secondary level students in Australia (Lyons 2003). The research was prompted by the increasing reluctance of such students to enrol in postcompulsory science courses, particularly in physics and chemistry. The study investigated the influences on students’ deliberations about taking a range of science courses. However, this report confines itself to decisions about enrolling in the physical sciences. The paper summarises the students’ experiences and conceptions of school science, as well as the characteristics of their ‘family worlds’ found to be influential in their decisions1. The paper discusses the important roles of cultural and social capital in these decisions, and concludes that enrolment in physical science courses was associated with congruence between the students’ conceptions of school science, and characteristics of their family backgrounds.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Fine-tuning of unmanned aerial surveillance for ecological systems

Much of our understanding and management of ecological processes requires knowledge of the distribution and abundance of species. Reliable abundance or density estimates are essential for managing both threatened and invasive populations, yet are often challenging to obtain. Recent and emerging technological advances, particularly in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), provide exciting opportunities to overcome these challenges in ecological surveillance. UAVs can provide automated, cost-effective surveillance and offer repeat surveys for pest incursions at an invasion front. They can capitalise on manoeuvrability and advanced imagery options to detect species that are cryptic due to behaviour, life-history or inaccessible habitat. UAVs may also cause less disturbance, in magnitude and duration, for sensitive fauna than other survey methods such as transect counting by humans or sniffer dogs. The surveillance approach depends upon the particular ecological context and the objective. For example, animal, plant and microbial target species differ in their movement, spread and observability. Lag-times may exist between a pest species presence at a site and its detectability, prompting a need for repeat surveys. Operationally, however, the frequency and coverage of UAV surveys may be limited by financial and other constraints, leading to errors in estimating species occurrence or density. We use simulation modelling to investigate how movement ecology should influence fine-scale decisions regarding ecological surveillance using UAVs. Movement and dispersal parameter choices allow contrasts between locally mobile but slow-dispersing populations, and species that are locally more static but invasive at the landscape scale. We find that low and slow UAV flights may offer the best monitoring strategy to predict local population densities in transects, but that the consequent reduction in overall area sampled may sacrifice the ability to reliably predict regional population density. Alternative flight plans may perform better, but this is also dependent on movement ecology and the magnitude of relative detection errors for different flight choices. Simulated investigations such as this will become increasingly useful to reveal how spatio-temporal extent and resolution of UAV monitoring should be adjusted to reduce observation errors and thus provide better population estimates, maximising the efficacy and efficiency of unmanned aerial surveys.