Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Microstrip antenna array for multiband dedicated short range communications systems

Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) is the key enabling technology for the present and future vehicular communication for various applications, such as safety improvement and traffic jam mitigation. This paper describes the development of a microstrip antenna array for the roadside equipment of a DSRC system, whose characteristics are according with the vehicular communications standards. The proposed antenna, with circular polarization, has a wide bandwidth, enough to cover the current European DSRC 5.8 GHz band and the future 5.9 GHz band for next generation DSRC communications. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Microwave Opt Technol Lett 53: 2794-2796, 2011; View this article online at wileyonlinelibrary.com. DOI 10.1002/mop.26394

OC/EC ratio observations in Europe: Re-thinking the approach for apportionment between primary and secondary organic carbon

This study explores a large set of OC and EC measurements in PM(10) and PM(2.5) aerosol samples, undertaken with a long term constant analytical methodology, to evaluate the capability of the OC/EC minimum ratio to represent the ratio between the OC and EC aerosol components resulting from fossil fuel combustion (OC(ff)/EC(ff)). The data set covers a wide geographical area in Europe, but with a particular focus upon Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom, and includes a great variety of sites: urban (background, kerbside and tunnel), industrial, rural and remote. The highest minimum ratios were found in samples from remote and rural sites. Urban background sites have shown spatially and temporally consistent minimum ratios, of around 1.0 for PM(10) and 0.7 for PM(2.5).The consistency of results has suggested that the method could be used as a tool to derive the ratio between OC and EC from fossil fuel combustion and consequently to differentiate OC from primary and secondary sources. To explore this capability, OC and EC measurements were performed in a busy roadway tunnel in central Lisbon. The OC/EC ratio, which reflected the composition of vehicle combustion emissions, was in the range of 03-0.4. Ratios of OC/EC in roadside increment air (roadside minus urban background) in Birmingham, UK also lie within the range 03-0.4. Additional measurements were performed under heavy traffic conditions at two double kerbside sites located in the centre of Lisbon and Madrid. The OC/EC minimum ratios observed at both sites were found to be between those of the tunnel and those of urban background air, suggesting that minimum values commonly obtained for this parameter in open urban atmospheres over-predict the direct emissions of OC(ff) from road transport. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are explored. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Semiconductor Device as Optical Demultiplexer for Short Range Optical Communications

In this paper we present results on the use of a multilayered a-SiC:H heterostructure as a wavelength-division demultiplexing device for the visible light spectrum. The proposed device is composed of two stacked p-i-n photodiodes with intrinsic absorber regions adjusted to short and long wavelength absorption and carrier collection. An optoelectronic characterisation of the device was performed in the visible spectrum. Demonstration of the device functionality for WDM applications was done with three different input channels covering the long, the medium and the short wavelengths in the visible range. The recovery of the input channels is explained using the photocurrent spectral dependence on the applied voltage. An electrical model of the WDM device is proposed and supported by the solution of the respective circuit equations. Short range optical communications constitute the major application field, however other applications are also foreseen.

Exposure to dust in poultry: the importance of task differences for detailed exposure assessment

Dust is a complex mixture of particles of organic and inorganic origin and different gases absorbed in aerosol droplets. In a poultry unit include dried faecal matter and urine, skin flakes, ammonia, carbon dioxide, pollens, feed and litter particles, feathers, grain mites, fungi spores, bacteria, viruses and their constituents. Dust particles vary in size and differentiation between particle size fractions is important in health studies in order to quantify penetration within the respiratory system. A descriptive study was developed in order to assess exposure to particles in a poultry unit during different operations, namely routine examination and floor turn over. Direct-reading equipment was used (Lighthouse, model 3016 IAQ). Particle measurement was performed in 5 different sizes (PM0.5; PM1.0; PM2.5; PM5.0; PM10). The chemical composition of poultry litter was also determined by neutron activation analysis. Normally, the litter of poultry pavilions is turned over weekly and it was during this operation that the higher exposure of particles was observed. In all the tasks considered PM5.0 and PM10.0 were the sizes with higher concentrations values. PM10 is what turns out to have higher values and PM0.5 the lowest values. The chemical element with the highest concentration was Mg (5.7E6 mg.kg-1), followed by K (1.5E4 mg.kg-1), Ca (4.8E3 mg.kg-1), Na (1.7E3 mg.kg-1), Fe (2.1E2 mg.kg-1) and Zn (4.2E1 mg.kg-1). This high presence of particles in the respirable range (<5–7μm) means that poultry dust particles can penetrate into the gas exchange region of the lung. Larger particles (PM10) present a range of concentrations from 5.3E5 and 3.0E6 mg/m3.

Efetividade do Pnf-Chi® na funcionalidade do membro superior e na qualidade de vida, em mulheres submetidas a tratamento cirúrgico por cancro da mama

Mestrado em Fisioterapia.

Biologia e abundância do camarão Plesionika edwardsii (Brandt, 1851) nos Açores

Dissertação de Mestrado, Estudos Integrados dos Oceanos, 15 de Janeiro de 2009, Universidade dos Açores.

Effects of density versus size on grazing by a key exploited herbivore

Fishing decreases the biomass of target species via reduction in the numbers and/or size of individuals. In natural systems, the strength of biological interactions, including predator-prey dynamics, are often density or size-dependent. Hence, changes in the numbers or size of key taxa may be expected to influence biological interactions but their effects do not need to be identical. Here we compare the effects of biomass reduction in populations of the exploited limpet Patella candei. Biomass removal was experimentally achieved by either removing individuals (density reduction) or by replacing large by small individuals (size reduction), while controlling for total limpet biomass in a laboratory-based experiment. At the experiment’s termination, biomass reduction led to proportional changes in area grazed. However, there was no difference whether this was achieved via changes in density or in size. Furthermore, no discernible effects of treatments were evident on different components of the algal assemblage. A field survey also revealed that P. candei biomass explained a greater proportion in variation in the area free of algae than density alone. Our results suggest that loss of biomass in populations of P. candei has quantitatively and qualitatively similar effects on algal cover regardless of whether it is caused by an equivalent (biomass) reduction in the numbers or size of individuals.

Size-segregated chemical composition of aerosol emissions in an urban road tunnel in Portugal

An atmospheric aerosol study was performed in 2008 inside an urban road tunnel, in Lisbon, Portugal. Using a high volume impactor, the aerosol was collected into four size fractions (PM0.5, PM0.5-1, PM1-2.5 and PM2.5-10) and analysed for particle mass (PM), organic and elemental carbon (OC and EC), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), soluble inorganic ions and elemental composition. Three main groups of compounds were discriminated in the tunnel aerosol: carbonaceous, soil component and vehicle mechanical wear. Measurements indicate that Cu can be a good tracer for wear emissions of road traffic. Cu levels correlate strongly with Fe, Mn, Sn and Cr, showing a highly linear constant ratio in all size ranges, suggesting a unique origin through sizes. Ratios of Cu with other elements can be used to source apportion the trace elements present in urban atmospheres, mainly on what concerns coarse aerosol particles. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data analysis model selection for estimating local population size of the Risso’s dolphin (Grampus griseus) in the Azores

27th Annual Conference of the European Cetacean Society. Setúbal, Portugal, 8-10 April 2013.

Shells of Patella aspera as 'islands' for epibionts

Copyright © Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, 2014.

Capillary bridging and long-range attractive forces in a mean-field approach

When a mixture is confined, one of the phases can condense out. This condensate, which is otherwise metastable in the bulk, is stabilized by the presence of surfaces. In a sphere-plane geometry, routinely used in atomic force microscope and surface force apparatus, it, can form a bridge connecting the surfaces. The pressure drop in the bridge gives rise to additional long-range attractive forces between them. By minimizing the free energy of a binary mixture we obtain the force-distance curves as well as the structural phase diagram of the configuration with the bridge. Numerical results predict a discontinuous transition between the states with and without the bridge and linear force-distance curves with hysteresis. We also show that similar phenomenon can be observed in a number of different systems, e.g., liquid crystals and polymer mixtures. (C). 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Longitudinal versus polar wrinkling of core-shell fibers with anisotropic size mismatches

We consider a fiber made of a soft elastic material, encased in a stiff elastic shell (core-shell geometry). If the core and shell dimensions are mismatched, e.g., because the core shrinks while the shell does not, but the two remain attached, then an elastic instability is triggered whereby wrinkles may appear on the shell. The wrinkle orientation may be longitudinal (along the fiber axis), polar (along the fiber perimeter), or a mixture of both, depending on the fiber's geometrical and material parameters. Here we investigate under what conditions longitudinal or polar wrinkling will occur.

A industria da cortiça e o seu potencial de inovação

Este trabalho teve como objectivo a avaliação da actual situação da indústria corticeira, o levantamento de eventuais possibilidades de inovação e o estudo de um caso promissor. Como caso promissor, decidiu-se estudar o efeito da pirólise nos resíduos de cortiça. A análise da situação actual da indústria corticeira aponta para a procura de novos produtos no sentido de alargar o mercado e promover um melhor escoamento deste recurso natural. Apesar de todos os esforços efectuados até ao momento, verifica-se que a indústria vinícola continua a ser o principal mercado da cortiça. O avanço da tecnologia tem permitido o desenvolvimento de novos produtos, alguns ainda em fase de desenvolvimento, e aponta para um potencial de inovação a vários níveis: ao nível do processo de transformação, no sentido da sua optimização; ao nível do desenvolvimento de novos produtos dado o potencial já demonstrado pela cortiça em desenvolvimentos recentes; ao nível da valorização de resíduos como, por exemplo, a consolidação de processo de recuperação de taninos da água de cozedura, a obtenção de suberina e poliois do pó e aparas de cortiça e a pirólise das aparas e pó de cortiça. Como estudo de caso, efectuou-se o estudo do efeito da pirólise em resíduos de cortiça natural, para se poder conhecer as características dos produtos obtidos bem como as condições óptimas de operação. Neste fase inicial e optou-se por se analisar as propriedades parte sólida de modo a saber as alterações sofridas durante a pirólise e estas podem apresentar uma mais-valia para o mercado corticeiro. Para efectuar o respectivo trabalho, recorreu-se a um forno pirolítico horizontal tipo Splitz e utilizou-se cortiça natural com granulometria entre 2,88 e 4,00mm. A pirólise foi realizada entre a gama de temperaturas de 400 e 900ºC e para duas rampas de aquecimento de 5ºC/min e 10ºC/min. O estudo experimental revela que na gama de temperaturas entre os 600 e 800ºC é onde a carbonização do resíduo está completa, sendo para essa mesma gama de temperaturas que se verifica, no resíduo carbonoso, um maior teor de carbono. Relativamente às rampas de aquecimento estas não apresentam efeitos significativos nas massas e teores de carbono no resíduo carbonoso final. Verificouse também, que o teor de hidrogénio diminui com o aumento da temperatura. Conclui-se que a pirólise consegue degradar os resíduos de cortiça levando à libertação de compostos que poderão ser uma mais-valia.

Does diaphragmatic breathing technique really improve its range of motion? An objective assessment

Purpose - To verify the results of a diaphragmatic breathing technique (DBT) on diaphragmatic range of motion in healthy subjects. Methods - A total of 51 healthy subjects (10 male; 41 female), mean age 20 years old and a body mass index (BMI) ranging from 15.6 to 34.9 kg/m2, were enrolled in this study. Diaphragmatic range of motion was assessed by M-mode ultrasound imaging. Measurements were made before and after the DBT implementation in a standard protocol, based on 3 seconds of inspiration starting from a maximum expiration. Differences between assessments were analyzed by descriptive statistics and t-test (p < 0.05). Results - Mean value range of motion before DBT was 55.3 ± 13.4 mm and after DBT was 63.8 ± 13.2 mm showing a significant improvement of 8.5 ± 14.7 mm (p < 0.001). A strong correlation between the slope and the range of motion was found (r = 0.71, p < 0.001). Conclusions - Based on ultrasound measurements, it has been proved that DBT really contributes to a higher diaphragmatic range of motion. Future studies are needed in order to understand the influence of protocol parameters (e.g. inspiration time). Clinical implications - In the contest of evidence-based practice in physiotherapy, it has been showed by objective measurements that DBT improves the diaphragm range of motion, translating into a more efficient ventilatory function and thus can be used in clinical setting. To our knowledge this is the first study to assess the effects of DBT on range of motion of diaphragm muscle with ultrasound imaging.