Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Braced Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

This thesis examines collapse risk of tall steel braced frame buildings using rupture-to-rafters simulations due to suite of San Andreas earthquakes. Two key advancements in this work are the development of (i) a rational methodology for assigning scenario earthquake probabilities and (ii) an artificial correction-free approach to broadband ground motion simulation. The work can be divided into the following sections: earthquake source modeling, earthquake probability calculations, ground motion simulations, building response, and performance analysis.

As a first step the kinematic source inversions of past earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6-8 are used to simulate 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. For each scenario earthquake a 30-year occurrence probability is calculated and we present a rational method to redistribute the forecast earthquake probabilities from UCERF to the simulated scenario earthquake. We illustrate the inner workings of the method through an example involving earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in southern California.

Next, three-component broadband ground motion histories are computed at 636 sites in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area by superposing short-period (0.2~s-2.0~s) empirical Green's function synthetics on top of long-period ($>$ 2.0~s) spectral element synthetics. We superimpose these seismograms on low-frequency seismograms, computed from kinematic source models using the spectral element method, to produce broadband seismograms.

Using the ground motions at 636 sites for the 60 scenario earthquakes, 3-D nonlinear analysis of several variants of an 18-story steel braced frame building, designed for three soil types using the 1994 and 1997 Uniform Building Code provisions and subjected to these ground motions, are conducted. Model performance is classified into one of five performance levels: Immediate Occupancy, Life Safety, Collapse Prevention, Red-Tagged, and Model Collapse. The results are combined with the 30-year probability of occurrence of the San Andreas scenario earthquakes using the PEER performance based earthquake engineering framework to determine the probability of exceedance of these limit states over the next 30 years.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Moment Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

There is a sparse number of credible source models available from large-magnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source model generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field observations to generate stochastic source models for large-magnitude (Mw 6.0-8.0) strike-slip earthquakes. The algorithm is validated through a statistical comparison of synthetic ground motion histories from a stochastically generated source model for a magnitude 7.90 earthquake and a kinematic finite-source inversion of an equivalent magnitude past earthquake on a geometrically similar fault. The synthetic dataset comprises of three-component ground motion waveforms, computed at 636 sites in southern California, for ten hypothetical rupture scenarios (five hypocenters, each with two rupture directions) on the southern San Andreas fault. A similar validation exercise is conducted for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, the lower magnitude limit for the algorithm. Additionally, ground motions from the Mw7.9 earthquake simulations are compared against predictions by the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA relation as well as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake. The algorithm is then applied to generate fifty source models for a hypothetical magnitude 7.9 earthquake originating at Parkfield, with rupture propagating from north to south (towards Wrightwood), similar to the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Using the spectral element method, three-component ground motion waveforms are computed in the Los Angeles basin for each scenario earthquake and the sensitivity of ground shaking intensity to seismic source parameters (such as the percentage of asperity area relative to the fault area, rupture speed, and risetime) is studied.

Under plausible San Andreas fault earthquakes in the next 30 years, modeled using the stochastic source algorithm, the performance of two 18-story steel moment frame buildings (UBC 1982 and 1997 designs) in southern California is quantified. The approach integrates rupture-to-rafters simulations into the PEER performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Using stochastic sources and computational seismic wave propagation, three-component ground motion histories at 636 sites in southern California are generated for sixty scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The ruptures, with moment magnitudes in the range of 6.0-8.0, are assumed to occur at five locations on the southern section of the fault. Two unilateral rupture propagation directions are considered. The 30-year probabilities of all plausible ruptures in this magnitude range and in that section of the fault, as forecast by the United States Geological Survey, are distributed among these 60 earthquakes based on proximity and moment release. The response of the two 18-story buildings hypothetically located at each of the 636 sites under 3-component shaking from all 60 events is computed using 3-D nonlinear time-history analysis. Using these results, the probability of the structural response exceeding Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life-Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP) performance levels under San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next thirty years is evaluated.

Furthermore, the conditional and marginal probability distributions of peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD) in Los Angeles and surrounding basins due to earthquakes occurring primarily on the mid-section of southern San Andreas fault are determined using Bayesian model class identification. Simulated ground motions at sites within 55-75km from the source from a suite of 60 earthquakes (Mw 6.0 − 8.0) primarily rupturing mid-section of San Andreas fault are considered for PGV and PGD data.

Ab initio study of anharmonicity in high pressure Cmca-4 metallic hydrogen

Hydrogen is the only atom for which the Schr odinger equation is solvable. Consisting only of a proton and an electron, hydrogen is the lightest element and, nevertheless, is far from being simple. Under ambient conditions, it forms diatomic molecules H2 in gas phase, but di erent temperature and pressures lead to a complex phase diagram, which is not completely known yet. Solid hydrogen was rst documented in 1899 [1] and was found to be isolating. At higher pressures, however, hydrogen can be metallized. In 1935 Wigner and Huntington predicted that the metallization pressure would be 25 GPa [2], where molecules would disociate to form a monoatomic metal, as alkali metals that lie below hydrogen in the periodic table. The prediction of the metallization pressure turned out to be wrong: metallic hydrogen has not been found yet, even under a pressure as high as 320 GPa. Nevertheless, extrapolations based on optical measurements suggest that a metallic phase may be attained at 450 GPa [3]. The interest of material scientist in metallic hydrogen can be attributed, at least to a great extent, to Ashcroft, who in 1968 suggested that such a system could be a hightemperature superconductor [4]. The temperature at which this material would exhibit a transition from a superconducting to a non-superconducting state (Tc) was estimated to be around room temperature. The implications of such a statement are very interesting in the eld of astrophysics: in planets that contain a big quantity of hydrogen and whose temperature is below Tc, superconducting hydrogen may be found, specially at the center, where the gravitational pressure is high. This might be the case of Jupiter, whose proportion of hydrogen is about 90%. There are also speculations suggesting that the high magnetic eld of Jupiter is due to persistent currents related to the superconducting phase [5]. Metallization and superconductivity of hydrogen has puzzled scientists for decades, and the community is trying to answer several questions. For instance, what is the structure of hydrogen at very high pressures? Or a more general one: what is the maximum Tc a phonon-mediated superconductor can have [6]? A great experimental e ort has been carried out pursuing metallic hydrogen and trying to answer the questions above; however, the characterization of solid phases of hydrogen is a hard task. Achieving the high pressures needed to get the sought phases requires advanced technologies. Diamond anvil cells (DAC) are commonly used devices. These devices consist of two diamonds with a tip of small area; for this reason, when a force is applied, the pressure exerted is very big. This pressure is uniaxial, but it can be turned into hydrostatic pressure using transmitting media. Nowadays, this method makes it possible to reach pressures higher than 300 GPa, but even at this pressure hydrogen does not show metallic properties. A recently developed technique that is an improvement of DAC can reach pressures as high as 600 GPa [7], so it is a promising step forward in high pressure physics. Another drawback is that the electronic density of the structures is so low that X-ray di raction patterns have low resolution. For these reasons, ab initio studies are an important source of knowledge in this eld, within their limitations. When treating hydrogen, there are many subtleties in the calculations: as the atoms are so light, the ions forming the crystalline lattice have signi cant displacements even when temperatures are very low, and even at T=0 K, due to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. Thus, the energy corresponding to this zero-point (ZP) motion is signi cant and has to be included in an accurate determination of the most stable phase. This has been done including ZP vibrational energies within the harmonic approximation for a range of pressures and at T=0 K, giving rise to a series of structures that are stable in their respective pressure ranges [8]. Very recently, a treatment of the phases of hydrogen that includes anharmonicity in ZP energies has suggested that relative stability of the phases may change with respect to the calculations within the harmonic approximation [9]. Many of the proposed structures for solid hydrogen have been investigated. Particularly, the Cmca-4 structure, which was found to be the stable one from 385-490 GPa [8], is metallic. Calculations for this structure, within the harmonic approximation for the ionic motion, predict a Tc up to 242 K at 450 GPa [10]. Nonetheless, due to the big ionic displacements, the harmonic approximation may not su ce to describe correctly the system. The aim of this work is to apply a recently developed method to treat anharmonicity, the stochastic self-consistent harmonic approximation (SSCHA) [11], to Cmca-4 metallic hydrogen. This way, we will be able to study the e ects of anharmonicity in the phonon spectrum and to try to understand the changes it may provoque in the value of Tc. The work is structured as follows. First we present the theoretical basis of the calculations: Density Functional Theory (DFT) for the electronic calculations, phonons in the harmonic approximation and the SSCHA. Then we apply these methods to Cmca-4 hydrogen and we discuss the results obtained. In the last chapter we draw some conclusions and propose possible future work.

Experimental study study of antiproton-proton annihilation into a pair of charged Pi-Mesons or K-Mesons for incident antiproton mementa in the range from 0.72 GeV/c to 2.62 GeV/c

The cross sections for the two antiproton-proton annihilation-in-flight modes,

ˉp + p → π⁺ + π^-

ˉp + p → k⁺ + k^-

were measured for fifteen laboratory antiproton beam momenta ranging from 0.72 to 2.62 GeV/c. No magnets were used to determine the charges in the final state. As a result, the angular distributions were obtained in the form [dσ/dΩ (Θ_C.M.) + dσ/dΩ (π – Θ_C.M.)] for 45 ≲ Θ_C.M. ≲ 135°.

A hodoscope-counter system was used to discriminate against events with final states having more than two particles and antiproton-proton elastic scattering events. One spark chamber was used to record the track of each of the two charged final particles. A total of about 40,000 pictures were taken. The events were analyzed by measuring the laboratory angle of the track in each chamber. The value of the square of the mass of the final particles was calculated for each event assuming the reaction

ˉp + p → a pair of particles with equal masses.

About 20,000 events were found to be either annihilation into π ^±-pair or k ^±-pair events. The two different charged meson pair modes were also distinctly separated.

The average differential cross section of ˉp + p → π⁺ + π^- varied from ~ 25 µb/sr at antiproton beam momentum 0.72 GeV/c (total energy in center-of-mass system, √s = 2.0 GeV) to ~ 2 µb/sr at beam momentum 2.62 GeV/c (√s = 2.64 GeV). The most striking feature in the angular distribution was a peak at Θ_C.M. = 90° (cos Θ_C.M. = 0) which increased with √s and reached a maximum at √s ~ 2.1 GeV (beam momentum ~ 1.1 GeV/c). Then it diminished and seemed to disappear completely at √s ~ 2.5 GeV (beam momentum ~ 2.13 GeV/c). A valley in the angular distribution occurred at cos Θ_C.M. ≈ 0.4. The differential cross section then increased as cos Θ_C.M. approached 1.

The average differential cross section for ˉp + p → k⁺ + k^- was about one third of that of the π^±-pair mode throughout the energy range of this experiment. At the lower energies, the angular distribution, unlike that of the π^±-pair mode, was quite isotropic. However, a peak at Θ_C.M. = 90° seemed to develop at √s ~ 2.37 GeV (antiproton beam momentum ~ 1.82 GeV/c). No observable change was seen at that energy in the π^±-pair cross section.

The possible connection of these features with the observed meson resonances at 2.2 GeV and 2.38 GeV, and its implications, were discussed.

Stationary Eddies and Zonal Variations of the Global Hydrological Cycle in a Changing Climate

This thesis advances our physical understanding of the sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to global warming. Specifically, it focuses on changes in the longitudinal (zonal) variation of precipitation minus evaporation (P - E), which is predominantly controlled by planetary-scale stationary eddies. By studying idealized general circulation model (GCM) experiments with zonally varying boundary conditions, this thesis examines the mechanisms controlling the strength of stationary-eddy circulations and their role in the hydrological cycle. The overarching goal of this research is to understand the cause of changes in regional P - E with global warming. An understanding of such changes can be useful for impact studies focusing on water availability, ecosystem management, and flood risk.

Based on a moisture-budget analysis of ERA-Interim data, we establish an approximation for zonally anomalous P - E in terms of surface moisture content and stationary-eddy vertical motion in the lower troposphere. Part of the success of this approximation comes from our finding that transient-eddy moisture fluxes partially cancel the effect of stationary-eddy moisture advection, allowing divergent circulations to dominate the moisture budget. The lower-tropospheric vertical motion is related to horizontal motion in stationary eddies by Sverdrup and Ekman balance. These moisture- and vorticity-budget balances also hold in idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations across a range of climates.

By examining climate changes in the idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations, we are able to show the utility of the vertical motion P - E approximation for splitting changes in zonally anomalous P - E into thermodynamic and dynamic components. Shifts in divergent stationary-eddy circulations dominate changes in zonally anomalous P - E. This limits the local utility of the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” idea, where existing P - E patterns are amplified with warming by the increase in atmospheric moisture content, with atmospheric circulations held fixed. The increase in atmospheric moisture content manifests instead in an increase in the amplitude of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle as measured by the zonal variance of P - E. However, dynamic changes, particularly the slowdown of divergent stationary-eddy circulations, limit the strengthening of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle. In certain idealized cases, dynamic changes are even strong enough to reverse the tendency towards "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” with warming.

Motivated by the importance of stationary-eddy vertical velocities in the moisture budget analysis, we examine controls on the amplitude of stationary eddies across a wide range of climates in an idealized GCM with simple topographic and ocean-heating zonal asymmetries. An analysis of the thermodynamic equation in the vicinity of topographic forcing reveals the importance of on-slope surface winds, the midlatitude isentropic slope, and latent heating in setting the amplitude of stationary waves. The response of stationary eddies to climate change is determined primarily by the strength of zonal surface winds hitting the mountain. The sensitivity of stationary-eddies to this surface forcing increases with climate change as the slope of midlatitude isentropes decreases. However, latent heating also plays an important role in damping the stationary-eddy response, and this damping becomes stronger with warming as the atmospheric moisture content increases. We find that the response of tropical overturning circulations forced by ocean heat-flux convergence is described by changes in the vertical structure of moist static energy and deep convection. This is used to derive simple scalings for the Walker circulation strength that capture the monotonic decrease with warming found in our idealized simulations.

Through the work of this thesis, the advances made in understanding the amplitude of stationary-waves in a changing climate can be directly applied to better understand and predict changes in the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle.

Activity patterns of Kemp's ridley turtles, Lepidochelys kempii, in the coastal waters of the Cedar Keys, Florida

Radio and sonic telemetry were used to investigate the tidal orientation, rate of movement (ROM), and surfacing behavior of nine Kemp's ridley turtles, Lepidochelys kempii, tracked east of the Cedar Keys, Florida. The mean of mean turtle bearings on incoming (48 ± 49 0) and falling (232 ± 41 0) tides was significantly oriented to the mean directions of tidal flow (37±9°, P<0.0025, and 234±9 0, P<0.005, respectively). Turtles had a mean ROM of 0.44±0.33 km/h (range: 0.004-1.758 km/h), a mean surface duration of 18± 15 s (range: 1-88 s), and a mean submergence duration of 8.4± 6.4 min (range: 0.2-60.0 min). ROM was negatively correlated with surface and submergence durations and positively correlated with the number of surfacings. Furthermore, ROMs were higher and surface and submergence durations were shorter during the day. Daily activities of turtles were attributed to food acquisition and bioenergetics.

Unsteady shock motion on a NACA0012 aerofoil at low reduced frequencies

Using transonic blowdown windtunnel experiments, the 2D unsteady shock motion on a NACA0012 aerofoil is examined at various frequencies typical for helicopter blades in forward flight. The aerofoil is subjected to freestream velocities oscillating periodically between M = 0.66 and M = 0.77. Unsteady pressure traces and schlieren images are analyzed over a range of low reduced frequencies to provide information on shock location and strength throughout the cycle. Unsteady effects were noticeable even at very low reduced frequencies (down to O(0.01). However, through the range of frequencies investigated, and within experimental error, the unsteady shock location showed no discernible lag compared to the quasi-steady behaviour. On the other hand, significant variations were observed in shock strengths with the upstream running part of the cycle (decreasing Mach number) displaying considerably stronger shocks than during the accelerating part of the cycle. It could be shown that this variation in shock strength is primarily caused by the shock motion modifying the relative shock Mach number. As a result is was possible to use the quasi-steady results to predict the unsteady shock behaviour at the frequencies investigated here (below 0(0.1)).

Unsteady shock motion on a NACA0012 aerofoil at low reduced frequencies

Using transonic blowdown windtunnel experiments, the 2D unsteady shock motion on a NACA0012 aerofoil is examined at various frequencies typical for helicopter blades in forward flight. The aerofoil is subjected to freestream velocities oscillating periodically between M = 0.66 and M = 0.77. Unsteady pressure traces and schlieren images are analyzed over a range of low reduced frequencies to provide information on shock location and strength throughout the cycle. Unsteady effects were noticeable even at very low reduced frequencies (down to O(0.01). However, through the range of frequencies investigated, and within experimental error, the unsteady shock location showed no discernible lag compared to the quasi-steady behaviour. On the other hand, significant variations were observed in shock strengths with the upstream running part of the cycle (decreasing Mach number) displaying considerably stronger shocks than during the accelerating part of the cycle. It could be shown that this variation in shock strength is primarily caused by the shock motion modifying the relative shock Mach number. As a result is was possible to use the quasi-steady results to predict the unsteady shock behaviour at the frequencies investigated here (below 0(0.1)).

Advanced thermal processing of semiconductor materials in the msec-range

This paper reviews the advances that flash lamp annealing brings to the processing of the most frequently used semiconductor materials, namely silicon and silicon carbide, thus enabling the fabrication of novel microelectronic structures and materials. The paper describes how such developments can translate into important practical applications leading to a wide range of technological benefits. Opportunities in ultra-shallow junction formation, heteroepitaxial growth of thin films of cubic silicon carbide on silicon, and crystallization of amorphous silicon films, along with the technical reasons for using flash lamp annealing are discussed in the context of state-of-the-art materials processing. © 2005 IEEE.

Fibre optics monitoring of clay cuttings and embankments along London's ring motorway

Although a wide range of techniques exist for slope monitoring, the task of monitoring slopes is sometimes complicated by the extensive nature and unpredictability of slope movements. The Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometer (BOTDR) is a distributed optical fiber strain measurement technology utilising Brillouin scattering. This method measures continuous strain along a standard optical fibre over a distance up to 10 km and hence has potential to detect deformations and diagnose problems along large sections of slopes and embankments. This paper reports the demonstration of BOTDR method for monitoring surface ground movements of clay cuttings and embankments along London's ring M25 motorway. A field trial investigating varying methods of onsite fibre optic installations was conducted. The surrounding ground was artificially moved by excavating a 3 m deep trench perpendicular to the instrumented sections. Results obtained from onsite installations after slope movement demonstrate a half-pipe covered fibre optic installed on wide (200mm) Tensar ™SS20 geogrid gives the most consistent recorded strain change profile. Initial conclusions suggest this method best represents induced ground motion at the surface and hence is recommended for implementation in future sitework. Copyright ASCE 2008.

Real-time block flow tracking of atrial septal defect motion in 4D cardiac ultrasound

Real-time cardiac ultrasound allows monitoring the heart motion during intracardiac beating heart procedures. Our application assists atrial septal defect (ASD) closure techniques using real-time 3D ultrasound guidance. One major image processing challenge is the processing of information at high frame rate. We present an optimized block flow technique, which combines the probability-based velocity computation for an entire block with template matching. We propose adapted similarity constraints both from frame to frame, to conserve energy, and globally, to minimize errors. We show tracking results on eight in-vivo 4D datasets acquired from porcine beating-heart procedures. Computing velocity at the block level with an optimized scheme, our technique tracks ASD motion at 41 frames/s. We analyze the errors of motion estimation and retrieve the cardiac cycle in ungated images. © 2007 IEEE.

THE SENSITIVITY OF 2D COMPRESSOR INCIDENCE RANGE TO IN-SERVICE GEOMETRIC VARIATION

The loss mechanisms which control 2D incidence range are discussed with an emphasis on determining which real in-service geometric variations will have the largest impact. For the majority of engine compressor blades (Minlet>0.55) both the negative and positive incidence limits are controlled by supersonic patches. It is shown that these patches are highly sensitive to the geometric variations close to, and around the leading edge. The variations used in this study were measured from newly manufactured as well as ex-service blades. Over most the high pressure compressor considered, it was shown that manufacture variations dominated. The first part of the paper shows that, despite large geometric variations (~10% of leading edge thickness), the incidence range responded in a linear way. The result of this is that the geometric variations have little effect on the mean incidence range of a row of blades. In the second part of the paper a region of the design space is identified where non-linear behavior can result in a 10% reduction in positive incidence range. The mechanism for this is reported and design guidelines for its avoidance offered. In the final part of the paper, the linear behavior at negative incidence and the transonic nature of the flow is exploited to design a robust asymmetric leading edge with a 5% increase in incidence range.

Trajectory control based on discrete full-range dynamics

There has been an increasing interest in the use of mechanical dynamics, (e.g., assive, Elastic, And viscous dynamics) for energy efficient and agile control of robotic systems. Despite the impressive demonstrations of behavioural performance, The mechanical dynamics of this class of robotic systems is still very limited as compared to those of biological systems. For example, Passive dynamic walkers are not capable of generating joint torques to compensate for disturbances from complex environments. In order to tackle such a discrepancy between biological and artificial systems, We present the concept and design of an adaptive clutch mechanism that discretely covers the full-range of dynamics. As a result, The system is capable of a large variety of joint operations, including dynamic switching among passive, actuated and rigid modes. The main innovation of this paper is the framework and algorithm developed for controlling the trajectory of such joint. We present different control strategies that exploit passive dynamics. Simulation results demonstrate a significant improvement in motion control with respect to the speed of motion and energy efficiency. The actuator is implemented in a simple pendulum platform to quantitatively evaluate this novel approach.

Biologically inspired visual odometer for navigation of a flying robot

Experimental research in biology has uncovered a number of different ways in which flying insects use cues derived from optical flow for navigational purposes, such as safe landing, obstacle avoidance and dead reckoning. In this study, we use a synthetic methodology to gain additional insights into the navigation behavior of bees. Specifically, we focus on the mechanisms of course stabilization behavior and visually mediated odometer by using a biological model of motion detector for the purpose of long-range goal-directed navigation in 3D environment. The performance tests of the proposed navigation method are conducted by using a blimp-type flying robot platform in uncontrolled indoor environments. The result shows that the proposed mechanism can be used for goal-directed navigation. Further analysis is also conducted in order to enhance the navigation performance of autonomous aerial vehicles. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of free spectral range and quality factor for two-dimensional square and circular microcavities

Free spectral range of whispering-gallery (WG)-like modes in a two-dimensional (2D) square microcavity is found to be twice that in a 2D circular microcavity. The quality factor of the WG-like mode with the low mode number in a 2D square microcavity, calculated by the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) technique and the Pade approximation method, is found to exceed that of the WG mode in 2D circular microcavity with the same cavity dimension and close mode wavelength.