A Data Mining Framework for Electric Load Profiling

This paper consists in the characterization of medium voltage (MV) electric power consumers based on a data clustering approach. It is intended to identify typical load profiles by selecting the best partition of a power consumption database among a pool of data partitions produced by several clustering algorithms. The best partition is selected using several cluster validity indices. These methods are intended to be used in a smart grid environment to extract useful knowledge about customers’ behavior. The data-mining-based methodology presented throughout the paper consists in several steps, namely the pre-processing data phase, clustering algorithms application and the evaluation of the quality of the partitions. To validate our approach, a case study with a real database of 1.022 MV consumers was used.

Stochastic Framework for Strategic Decision-making of Load-serving Entities for Day-ahead Market

The deregulation of electricity markets has diversified the range of financial transaction modes between independent system operator (ISO), generation companies (GENCO) and load-serving entities (LSE) as the main interacting players of a day-ahead market (DAM). LSEs sell electricity to end-users and retail customers. The LSE that owns distributed generation (DG) or energy storage units can supply part of its serving loads when the nodal price of electricity rises. This opportunity stimulates them to have storage or generation facilities at the buses with higher locational marginal prices (LMP). The short-term advantage of this model is reducing the risk of financial losses for LSEs in DAMs and its long-term benefit for the LSEs and the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand. This model also enables the LSEs to manage the financial risks with a stochastic programming framework.

Contextual Intelligent Load Management Considering Real-Time Pricing in a Smart Grid Environment

The use of demand response programs enables the adequate use of resources of small and medium players, bringing high benefits to the smart grid, and increasing its efficiency. One of the difficulties to proceed with this paradigm is the lack of intelligence in the management of small and medium size players. In order to make demand response programs a feasible solution, it is essential that small and medium players have an efficient energy management and a fair optimization mechanism to decrease the consumption without heavy loss of comfort, making it acceptable for the users. This paper addresses the application of real-time pricing in a house that uses an intelligent optimization module involving artificial neural networks.

Short-term Load Forecasting Based on Load Profiling

Load forecasting has gradually becoming a major field of research in electricity industry. Therefore, Load forecasting is extremely important for the electric sector under deregulated environment as it provides a useful support to the power system management. Accurate power load forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of a utility company, and they have received increasing attention from researches of this field study. Many mathematical methods have been developed for load forecasting. This work aims to develop and implement a load forecasting method for short-term load forecasting (STLF), based on Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and an artificial neural network (ANN). One of the main contributions of this paper is the application of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approach to the forecasting problem and, as an evaluation of the past forecasting work, data mining techniques are also applied to short-term Load forecasting. Both ANN and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approaches are compared and evaluated.

Determining the Adjustment Baseline Parameters to Define an Accurate Customer Baseline Load

Demand response is an energy resource that has gained increasing importance in the context of competitive electricity markets and of smart grids. New business models and methods designed to integrate demand response in electricity markets and of smart grids have been published, reporting the need of additional work in this field. In order to adequately remunerate the participation of the consumers in demand response programs, improved consumers’ performance evaluation methods are needed. The methodology proposed in the present paper determines the characterization of the baseline approach that better fits the consumer historic consumption, in order to determine the expected consumption in absent of participation in a demand response event and then determine the actual consumption reduction. The defined baseline can then be used to better determine the remuneration of the consumer. The paper includes a case study with real data to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology.

Load Control Timescales Simulation in a Multi-Agent Smart Grid Platform

Environmental concerns and the shortage in the fossil fuel reserves have been potentiating the growth and globalization of distributed generation. Another resource that has been increasing its importance is the demand response, which is used to change consumers’ consumption profile, helping to reduce peak demand. Aiming to support small players’ participation in demand response events, the Curtailment Service Provider emerged. This player works as an aggregator for demand response events. The control of small and medium players which act in smart grid and micro grid environments is enhanced with a multi-agent system with artificial intelligence techniques – the MASGriP (Multi-Agent Smart Grid Platform). Using strategic behaviours in each player, this system simulates the profile of real players by using software agents. This paper shows the importance of modeling these behaviours for studying this type of scenarios. A case study with three examples shows the differences between each player and the best behaviour in order to achieve the higher profit in each situation.

Load Profiling Tool to Support Smart Grid Operation Scenarios

This paper presents the characterization of high voltage (HV) electric power consumers based on a data clustering approach. The typical load profiles (TLP) are obtained selecting the best partition of a power consumption database among a pool of data partitions produced by several clustering algorithms. The choice of the best partition is supported using several cluster validity indices. The proposed data-mining (DM) based methodology, that includes all steps presented in the process of knowledge discovery in databases (KDD), presents an automatic data treatment application in order to preprocess the initial database in an automatic way, allowing time saving and better accuracy during this phase. These methods are intended to be used in a smart grid environment to extract useful knowledge about customers’ consumption behavior. To validate our approach, a case study with a real database of 185 HV consumers was used.

Study of Load Curves Concerning the Influence of Socioeconomic and Cultural Issues

The increase of electricity demand in Brazil, the lack of the next major hydroelectric reservoirs implementation, and the growth of environmental concerns lead utilities to seek an improved system planning to meet these energy needs. The great diversity of economic, social, climatic, and cultural conditions in the country have been causing a more difficult planning of the power system. The work presented in this paper concerns the development of an algorithm that aims studying the influence of the issues mentioned in load curves. Focus is given to residential consumers. The consumption device with highest influence in the load curve is also identified. The methodology developed gains increasing importance in the system planning and operation, namely in the smart grids context.

Voltage Analysis and Load Curtailment Minimization in Sub-transmission Networks with Distributed Generation

Most of distributed generation and smart grid research works are dedicated to network operation parameters studies, reliability, etc. However, many of these works normally uses traditional test systems, for instance, IEEE test systems. This paper proposes voltage magnitude and reliability studies in presence of fault conditions, considering realistic conditions found in countries like Brazil. The methodology considers a hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models and a remedial action algorithm which is based on optimal power flow. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, the paper includes a case study that considers a real 12-bus sub-transmission network.

The influence of gait cadence on the ground reaction forces and plantar pressures during load carriage of young adults

Biomechanical gait parameters—ground reaction forces (GRFs) and plantar pressures—during load carriage of young adults were compared at a low gait cadence and a high gait cadence. Differences between load carriage and normal walking during both gait cadences were also assessed. A force plate and an in-shoe plantar pressure system were used to assess 60 adults while they were walking either normally (unloaded condition) or wearing a backpack (loaded condition) at low (70 steps per minute) and high gait cadences (120 steps per minute). GRF and plantar pressure peaks were scaled to body weight (or body weight plus backpack weight). With medium to high effect sizes we found greater anterior-posterior and vertical GRFs and greater plantar pressure peaks in the rearfoot, forefoot and hallux when the participants walked carrying a backpack at high gait cadences compared to walking at low gait cadences. Differences between loaded and unloaded conditions in both gait cadences were also observed.

Phenotypic heterogeneity of antigen-specific CD4 cells under different conditions of antigen persistence and antigen load

RESUME Nous n'avons pas de connaissance précise des facteurs à l'origine de l'hétérogénéité phénotypique des cellules T CD4 mémoires. Une troisième population phénotypique des cellules T CD4 mémoires, caractérisée par les marqueurs CD45RA+CCR7- a été identifiée dans cette étude. Cette population présente un état de différentiation avancée, comme en témoigne son histoire de réplication, ainsi que sa capacité de prolifération homéostatique. Les réponses des cellules T CD4 mémoires à différentes conditions de persistance et charge antigénique ont trois patterns phénotypiques différents, caractérisés par les marqueurs CD45RA et CCR7. La réponse CD4 mono -phénotypique CD45RA-CCR7+ ou CD45RA- CCR7- est associée à des conditions d'élimination de l'antigène (telle la réponse CD4 tétanos spécifique) ou à des conditions de persistance antigénique et de virémie élevée (telle la réponse HIV chronique ou la primo-infection CMV) respectivement. D'autre part, les réponses T CD4 multi -phénotypiques CD45RA-CCR7+ sont associées à des conditions d'exposition antigénique prolongée et de faible virémie (telles les infections CMV, EBV et HSV ou les infections HIV chez les long term non progressons). La réponse mono -phénotypique CD45RA- CCR7+ est propre aux cellules T CD4 secrétant de IL2, définies également comme centrales mémoires, la réponse CD45RA- CCR7- aux cellules T CD4 secrétant de l'IFNγ et finalement la réponse mufti-phénotypique aux cellules T CD4 secrétant à la fois de l'IL2 et de l' IFNγ. En conclusion, ces résultats témoignent d'une régulation de l'hétérogénéité phénotypique par l'exposition et la charge antigénique. ABSTRACT The factors responsible for the phenotypic heterogeneity of memory CD4 T cells are unclear. In the present study, we have identified a third population of memory CD4 T cells characterized as CD45RA+CCRT that, based on its replication history and the homeostatic proliferative capacity, was at an advanced stage of differentiation. Three different phenotypic patterns of memory CD4 T cell responses were delineated under different conditions of antigen (Ag) persistence and load using CD45RA and CCR7 as markers of memory T cells. Mono-phenotypic CD45RA'CCR7+ or CD45RA'CCR7' CD4 T cell responses were associated with conditions of Ag clearance (tetanus toxoid-specific CD4 T cell response) or Ag persistence and high load (chronic HIV-1 and primary CMV infections), respectively. Multi-phenotypic CD45RA CCR7+, CD45RA'CCRT and CD45RA+CCRT CD4 T cell responses were associated with protracted Ag exposure and low load (chronic CMV, EBV and HSV infections and HIV-1 infection in long-term nonprogressors). The mono-phenotypic CD45RA'CCR7+ response was typical of central memory (TCM) IL-2-secreting CD4 T cells, the mono-phenotypic CD45RA CCRT response of effector memory (TEM) IFN-γ -secreting CD4 T cells and the multi-phenotypic response of both IL-2- and IFN-γ -secreting cells. The present results indicate that the heterogeneity of different Ag-specific CD4 T cell responses is regulated by Ag exposure and Ag load.

Integration of olfactory information in a spatial representation enabling accurate arm choice in the radial arm maze

The aim of the present study was to determine whether and how rats can use local olfactory cues for spatial orientation. Rats were trained in an eight-arm radial maze under different conditions as defined by the presence or absence of supplementary olfactory cues marking each arm, the availability of distant visuospatial information, and the illumination of the maze (light or darkness). The different visual conditions were designed to dissociate among the effects of light per se and those of visuospatial cues, on the use of olfactory cues for accurate arm choice. Different procedures with modifications of the arrangement of olfactory cues were used to determine if rats formed a representation of the spatial configuration of the olfactory cues and if they could rely on such a representation for accurate arm choice in the radial maze. The present study demonstrated that the use of olfactory cues to direct arm choice in the radial arm maze was critically dependent on the illumination conditions and implied two different modes of processing of olfactory information according to the presence or the absence of light. Olfactory cues were used in an explicit manner and enabled accurate arm choice only in the absence of light. Rats, however, had an implicit memory of the location of the olfactory cues and formed a representation of the spatial position of these cues, whatever the lighting conditions. They did not memorize the spatial configuration of the olfactory cues per se but needed these cues to be linked to the external spatial frame of reference.

Fluoroscopic-Guided Radial Endobronchial Ultrasound Without Guide Sheath For Peripheral Pulmonary Lesions: A Safe And Efficient Combination.

BACKGROUND: Several guidelines recommend computed tomography scans for populations with high-risk for lung cancer. The number of individuals evaluated for peripheral pulmonary lesions (PPL) will probably increase, and with it non-surgical biopsies. Associating a guidance method with a target confirmation technique has been shown to achieve the highest diagnostic yield, but the utility of bronchoscopy with radial probe endobronchial ultrasound using fluoroscopy as guidance without a guide sheath has not been reported. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of bronchoscopy with radial probe endobronchial ultrasound using fluoroscopy procedures for the investigation of PPL performed by experienced bronchoscopists with no specific previous training in this particular technique. Operator learning curves and radiological predictors were assessed for all consecutive patients examined during the first year of application of the technique. RESULTS: Fifty-one PPL were investigated. Diagnostic yield and visualization yield were 72.5 and 82.3% respectively. The diagnostic yield was 64.0% for PPL ≤20mm, and 80.8% for PPL>20mm. No false-positive results were recorded. The learning curve of all diagnostic tools showed a DY of 72.7% for the first sub-group of patients, 81.8% for the second, 72.7% for the third, and 81.8% for the last. CONCLUSION: Bronchoscopy with radial probe endobronchial ultrasound using fluoroscopy as guidance is safe and simple to perform, even without specific prior training, and diagnostic yield is high for PPL>and ≤20mm. Based on these findings, this method could be introduced as a first-line procedure for the investigation of PPL, particularly in centers with limited resources.

Sociodemographic, behavioral and genetic determinants of allostatic load in a Swiss population-based study.

Allostatic load (AL) is a marker of physiological dysregulation which reflects exposure to chronic stress. High AL has been related to poorer health outcomes including mortality. We examine here the association of socioeconomic and lifestyle factors with AL. Additionally, we investigate the extent to which AL is genetically determined. We included 803 participants (52% women, mean age 48±16years) from a population and family-based Swiss study. We computed an AL index aggregating 14 markers from cardiovascular, metabolic, lipidic, oxidative, hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal and inflammatory homeostatic axes. Education and occupational position were used as indicators of socioeconomic status. Marital status, stress, alcohol intake, smoking, dietary patterns and physical activity were considered as lifestyle factors. Heritability of AL was estimated by maximum likelihood. Women with a low occupational position had higher AL (low vs. high OR=3.99, 95%CI [1.22;13.05]), while the opposite was observed for men (middle vs. high OR=0.48, 95%CI [0.23;0.99]). Education tended to be inversely associated with AL in both sexes(low vs. high OR=3.54, 95%CI [1.69;7.4]/OR=1.59, 95%CI [0.88;2.90] in women/men). Heavy drinking men as well as women abstaining from alcohol had higher AL than moderate drinkers. Physical activity was protective against AL while high salt intake was related to increased AL risk. The heritability of AL was estimated to be 29.5% ±7.9%. Our results suggest that generalized physiological dysregulation, as measured by AL, is determined by both environmental and genetic factors. The genetic contribution to AL remains modest when compared to the environmental component, which explains approximately 70% of the phenotypic variance.

The effect of diet and parasite load on female phonotaxis in the Texas field cricket, Gryllus integer

Female crickets respond selectively to variations in species-specific male calling songs. This selectivity has been shown to be age-dependent; older females are less choosy. However, female quality should also affect female selectivity. The effect of female quality on mate choice was examined in Gryllus integer by comparing the phonotactic responses of females on different diets and with different parasite loads to various synthetic models of conspecific calling song. Test females were virgin, 11-14 days old, and had been maintained on one of five diets varying in protein and fat content. Phonotaxis was quantified using a non-compensating Kugel treadmill which generates vector scores incorporating the speed and direction of movement of each female. Test females were presented with four calling song models which differed in pulse rate, but were still within the natural range of the species for the experimental temperature. After testing, females were dissected and the number of gregarine parasites within the digestive tract counted. There were no significant effects of either diet or parasitism on female motivation to mate although the combined effects of these variables seem to have an effect with no apparent trend. Control females did not discriminate among song types, but there was a trend of female preferences for lower pulse rates which are closest to the mean pulse rate for the species. Heavily parasitized females did not discriminate among pulse rates altho~gh there was a similar trend of high vector scores for low pulse rates. Diet, however, affected selectivity with poorly-fed females showing significantly high vector scores for pulse rates near the species mean. Such findings raise interesting questions about energy allocation and costs and risks of phonotaxis and mate choice in acoustic Orthoptera. These results are discussed in terms of sexual selection and female mate choice.