Time Horizons And Smoothing In The Bank Of England’s Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.

Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy: the OECD 1981-2003

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981-2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data.

ADOS: an educational primary prevention programme for preventing excess body weight in adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: The prevalence of adolescent obesity has increased considerably over the past decade in Switzerland and has become a serious public health problem in Europe. Prevention of obesity using various comprehensive programmes appears to be very promising, although we must admit that several interventions had generally disappointing results compared with the objectives and target initially fixed. Holistic programmes including nutritional education combined with promotion of physical activity and behaviour modification constitute the key factors in the prevention of childhood and adolescent obesity. The purpose of this programme was to incorporate nutrition/physical education as well as psychological aspects in selected secondary schools (9th grade, 14-17 years). METHODS: The educational strategy was based on the development of a series of 13 practical workshops covering wide areas such as physical inactivity, body composition, sugar, energy density, invisible lipids, how to read food labels, is meal duration important? Do you eat with pleasure or not? Do you eat because you are hungry? Emotional eating. For teachers continuing education, a basic highly illustrated guide was developed as a companion booklet to the workshops. These materials were first validated by biology, physical education, dietician and psychologist teachers as well as school medical officers. RESULTS: Teachers considered the practical educational materials innovative and useful, motivational and easy to understand. Up to now (early 2008), the programme has been implemented in 50 classes or more from schools originating from three areas in the French part of Switzerland. Based on the 1-week pedometer value assessed before and after the 1 school-year programme, an initial evaluation indicated that overall physical placidity was significantly decreased as evidenced by a significant rise in the number of steps per day. CONCLUSION: Future evaluation will provide more information on the effectiveness of the ADOS programme.

Changing Eating Habits - A Field Experiment in Primary Schools

We conduct a field experiment in 31 primary schools in England to test whether incentives to eat fruit and vegetables help children develop healthier habits. The intervention consists of rewarding children with stickers and little gifts for a period of four weeks for choosing a portion of fruit and vegetables at lunch. We compare the effects of two incentive schemes (competition and piece rate) on choices and consumption over the course of the intervention as well as once the incentives are removed and six months later. We find that the intervention had positive effects, but the effects vary substantially according to age and gender. However, we find little evidence of sustained long term effects, except for the children from poorer socio‐economic backgrounds.

Patient and physician gender concordance in preventive care in university primary care settings.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the quality of preventive care according to physician and patient gender in a country with universal health care coverage. METHODS: We assessed a retrospective cohort study of 1001 randomly selected patients aged 50-80years followed over 2years (2005-2006) in 4 Swiss university primary care settings (Basel, Geneva, Lausanne, Zürich). We used indicators derived from RAND's Quality Assessment Tools and examined percentages of recommended preventive care. Results were adjusted using hierarchical multivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS: 1001 patients (44% women) were followed by 189 physicians (52% women). Female patients received less preventive care than male patients (65.2% vs. 72.1%, p<0.001). Female physicians provided significantly more preventive care than male physicians (p=0.01) to both female (66.7% vs. 63.6%) and male patients (73.4% vs. 70.7%). After multivariate adjustment, differences according to physician (p=0.02) and patient gender (p<0.001) remained statistically significant. Female physicians provided more recommended cancer screening than male physicians (78.4 vs. 71.9%, p=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In Swiss university primary care settings, female patients receive less preventive care than male patients, with female physicians providing more preventive care than male physicians. Greater attention should be paid to female patients in preventive care and to why female physicians tend to provide better preventive care.

CD28/CTLA4-B7 interaction is dispensable for T cell stimulation by mouse mammary tumor virus superantigen but not for B cell differentiation and virus dissemination.

B cells are the primary targets of infection for mouse mammary tumor virus (MMTV). However, for productive retroviral infection, T cell stimulation through the virally-encoded superantigen (SAG) is necessary. It activates B cells and leads to cell division and differentiation. To characterize the role of B cell differentiation for the MMTV life cycle, we studied the course of infection in transgenic mice deficient for CD28/CTLA4-B7 interactions (mCTLA4-H gamma 1 transgenic mice). B cell infection occurred in CTLA4-H gamma 1 transgenic mice as integrated proviral DNA could be detected in draining lymph node cells early after infection by polymerase chain reaction analysis. In mice expressing I-E, B cells were able to present the viral SAG efficiently to V beta 6+ T cells. These cells expanded specifically and were triggered to express the activation marker CD69. Further stages of progression of infection appeared to be defective. Kinetics experiments indicated that T and B cell stimulation stopped more rapidly than in control mice. B cells acquired an activated CD69+ phenotype, were induced to produce IgM but only partially switched to IgG secretion. Finally, the dissemination of infected cells to other lymph nodes and spleen was reduced and the peripheral deletion of V beta 6+ T cells was minimal. In contrast, in mice lacking I-E, T cell stimulation was also impaired and B cell activation undetectable. These data implicate B7-dependent cellular interactions for superantigenic T cell stimulation by low-affinity TCR ligands and suggest a role of B cell differentiation in viral dissemination and peripheral T cell deletion.

Older persons' perceptions of general practitioner or specialist primary care physicians : same point of view?

BACKGROUND: Identification of a Primary Care Physician (PCP) by older patients is considered as essential for the coordination of care, but the extent to which identified PCPs are general practitioners or specialists is unknown. This study described older patients' experiences with their PCP and tested the hypothesis of differences between patients who identify a specialist as their PCP (SP PCP) and those who turn to a general practitioner (GP PCP). METHODS: In 2012, a cross-sectional postal survey on care was conducted in the 68+ year old population of the canton of Vaud. Data was provided by 2,276 participants in the ongoing Lausanne cohort 65+ (Lc65+), a study of those born between 1934 and 1943, and by 998 persons from an additional sample drawn to include the population outside of Lausanne or born before 1934. RESULTS: Participants expressed favourable perceptions, at rates exceeding 75% for most items. However, only 38% to 51% responded positively for out-of-hours availability, easy access and at home visits, likelihood of prescribing expensive medication if needed, and doctors' awareness of over-the-counter drugs. 12.0% had an SP PCP, in 95.9% specialised in a discipline implying training in internal medicine. Bivariate and multivariate analyses did not result in significant differences between GP and SP PCPs regarding perceptions of accessibility/availability, doctor-patient relationship, information and continuity of care, prevention, spontaneous use of the emergency department or ambulatory care utilisation. CONCLUSIONS: Experiences of old patients were mostly positive despite some lack in reported hearing, memory testing, and colorectal cancer screening. We found no differences between GP and SP PCP groups.

Translocation of the yeast dolichol-phosphate-mannose synthase into microsomal membranes.

Dolichol-phosphate-mannose synthase catalyzes the formation of Dolichol-phosphate-mannose from Dolichol-phosphate and GDP-mannose. Analysis of the primary amino acid sequence of the yeast enzyme predicts a luminal orientation of the enzyme in the endoplasmic reticulum. We analysed the translocation of the Dolichol-phosphate-mannose synthase into dog pancreatic microsomal membranes: resistance to proteolytic attack provides evidence of its luminal orientation and asks for a reevaluation of the topology of the reaction.

Primary Commodity Prices: Co-movements, Common Factors and Fundamentals

The behavior of commodities is critical for developing and developed countries alike. This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the co-movement and determinants of commodity prices. Using nonstationary panel methods, we document a statistically significant degree of co-movement due to a common factor. Within a Factor Augmented VAR approach, real interest rate and uncertainty, as postulated by a simple asset pricing model, are both found to be negatively related to this common factor. This evidence is robust to the inclusion of demand and supply shocks, which both positively impact on the co-movement of commodity prices.

Detecting and measuring deprivation in primary care: development, reliability and validity of a self-reported questionnaire: the DiPCare-Q.

OBJECTIVES: Advances in biopsychosocial science have underlined the importance of taking social history and life course perspective into consideration in primary care. For both clinical and research purposes, this study aims to develop and validate a standardised instrument measuring both material and social deprivation at an individual level. METHODS: We identified relevant potential questions regarding deprivation using a systematic review, structured interviews, focus group interviews and a think-aloud approach. Item response theory analysis was then used to reduce the length of the 38-item questionnaire and derive the deprivation in primary care questionnaire (DiPCare-Q) index using data obtained from a random sample of 200 patients during their planned visits to an ambulatory general internal medicine clinic. Patients completed the questionnaire a second time over the phone 3 days later to enable us to assess reliability. Content validity of the DiPCare-Q was then assessed by 17 general practitioners. Psychometric properties and validity of the final instrument were investigated in a second set of patients. The DiPCare-Q was administered to a random sample of 1898 patients attending one of 47 different private primary care practices in western Switzerland along with questions on subjective social status, education, source of income, welfare status and subjective poverty. RESULTS: Deprivation was defined in three distinct dimensions: material (eight items), social (five items) and health deprivation (three items). Item consistency was high in both the derivation (Kuder-Richardson Formula 20 (KR20) =0.827) and the validation set (KR20 =0.778). The DiPCare-Q index was reliable (interclass correlation coefficients=0.847) and was correlated to subjective social status (r(s)=-0.539). CONCLUSION: The DiPCare-Q is a rapid, reliable and validated instrument that may prove useful for measuring both material and social deprivation in primary care.

Primary pineal tumors: outcome and prognostic factors-a study from the Rare Cancer Network (RCN).

PURPOSE: To better define outcome and prognostic factors in primary pineal tumors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty-five consecutive patients from seven academic centers of the Rare Cancer Network diagnosed between 1988 and 2006 were included. Median age was 36 years. Surgical resection consisted of biopsy in 12 cases and resection in 21 (2 cases with unknown resection). All patients underwent radiotherapy and 12 patients received also chemotherapy. RESULTS: Histological subtypes were pineoblastoma (PNB) in 21 patients, pineocytoma (PC) in 8 patients and pineocytoma with intermediate differentiation in 6 patients. Six patients with PNB had evidence of spinal seeding. Fifteen patients relapsed (14 PNB and 1 PC) with PNB cases at higher risk (p = 0.031). Median survival time was not reached. Median disease-free survival was 82 months (CI 50 % 28-275). In univariate analysis, age younger than 36 years was an unfavorable prognostic factor (p = 0.003). Patients with metastases at diagnosis had poorer survival (p = 0.048). Late side effects related to radiotherapy were dementia, leukoencephalopathy or memory loss in seven cases, occipital ischemia in one, and grade 3 seizures in two cases. Side effects related to chemotherapy were grade 3-4 leucopenia in five cases, grade 4 thrombocytopenia in three cases, grade 2 anemia in two cases, grade 4 pancytopenia in one case, grade 4 vomiting in one case and renal failure in one case. CONCLUSIONS: Age and dissemination at diagnosis influenced survival in our series. The prevalence of chronic toxicity suggests that new adjuvant strategies are advisable.

Human Primary Auditory Cortex Follows the Shape of Heschl's Gyrus.

The primary auditory cortex (PAC) is central to human auditory abilities, yet its location in the brain remains unclear. We measured the two largest tonotopic subfields of PAC (hA1 and hR) using high-resolution functional MRI at 7 T relative to the underlying anatomy of Heschl's gyrus (HG) in 10 individual human subjects. The data reveals a clear anatomical-functional relationship that, for the first time, indicates the location of PAC across the range of common morphological variants of HG (single gyri, partial duplications, and complete duplications). In 20/20 individual hemispheres, two primary mirror-symmetric tonotopic maps were clearly observed with gradients perpendicular to HG. PAC spanned both divisions of HG in cases of partial and complete duplications (11/20 hemispheres), not only the anterior division as commonly assumed. Specifically, the central union of the two primary maps (the hA1-R border) was consistently centered on the full Heschl's structure: on the gyral crown of single HGs and within the sulcal divide of duplicated HGs. The anatomical-functional variants of PAC appear to be part of a continuum, rather than distinct subtypes. These findings significantly revise HG as a marker for human PAC and suggest that tonotopic maps may have shaped HG during human evolution. Tonotopic mappings were based on only 16 min of fMRI data acquisition, so these methods can be used as an initial mapping step in future experiments designed to probe the function of specific auditory fields.

Psychosocial care for the caregivers of primary malignant brain tumor patients.

Despite clinical experience that suggests a high burden of care among relatives of individuals with a primary malignant brain tumor (PMBT), little is known about their actual needs. In this study, the caregivers' personal experiences, quality of life, burden of care, and psychological well-being were examined. Fifty-nine percent did not receive any financial aid for home care, 33% had increased risk for psychosomatic problems, 45% had anxiety, and 33% increased depression levels. The caregiver's quality of life was most strongly affected by the burden of care (p < .001) and the patient's mental state (p < .03). To improve the situation, empathetic professionals and an early implementation of palliative care and social work are required.

Patients with non-insulin depending diabetes mellitus and metabolic syndrome are suboptimal treated in swiss primary care.

The prevalence of complicated hypertension is increasing in America and Europe. This survey was undertaken to assess the status quo of primary care management of hypertension in patients with the high-risk comorbid diseases metabolic syndrome (MetS) and/or type 2 diabetes mellitus (non-insulin depending diabetes mellitus (NIDDM)). Data of anti-hypertensive treatment of 4594 Swiss patients were collected over 1 week. We identified patients with exclusively NIDDM (N = 95), MetS (N = 168), and both (N = 768). Target blood pressure (TBP) attainment, frequency of prescribed substance-classes, and correlations to comorbidities/end-organ damages were assessed. In addition, we analyzed the prescription of unfavorable beta-blockers (BB) and high-dose diuretics (Ds). In NIDDM, Ds (61%), angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) (40%), and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) (31%) were mostly prescribed, while in MetS, drugs prevalence was Ds (68%), ARBs (48%), and BB (41%). Polypharmacy in patients with MetS correlated with body mass index; older patients (>65 years) were more likely to receive dual-free combinations. TBP was attained in 25.2% of NIDDM and in 28.7% of MetS patients. In general, low-dose Ds use was more prevalent in NIDDM and MetS, however, overall, Ds were used excessively (NIDDM: 61%, MetS: 68%), especially in single-pill combination. Patients with MetS were more likely to receive ARBs, ACEIs, CCBs, and low-dose Ds than BBs and/or high-dose Ds. Physicians recognize DM and MetS as high-risk patients, but select inappropriate drugs. Because the majority of patients may have both, MetS and NIDDM, there is an unmet need to define TBP for this specific population considering the increased risk in comparison to patients with MetS or NIDDM alone.