999 resultados para predictive profile


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Organic geochemical and stable isotope investigations were performed to provide an insight into the depositional environments, origin and maturity of the organic matter in Jurassic and Cretaceous formations of the External Dinarides. A correlation is made among various parameters acquired from Rock-Eval, gas chromatography-mass spectrometry data and isotope analysis of carbonates and kerogen. Three groups of samples were analysed. The first group includes source rocks derived from Lower Jurassic limestone and Upper Jurassic ``Leme'' beds, the second from Upper Cretaceous carbonates, while the third group comprises oil seeps genetically connected with Upper Cretaceous source rocks. The carbon and oxygen isotopic ratios of all the carbonates display marine isotopic composition. Rock-Eval data and maturity parameter values derived from biomarkers define the organic matter of the Upper Cretaceous carbonates as Type I-S and Type II-S kerogen at the low stage of maturity up to entering the oil-generating window. Lower and Upper Jurassic source rocks contain early mature Type III mixed with Type IV organic matter. All Jurassic and Cretaceous potential source rock extracts show similarity in triterpane and sterane distribution. The hopane and sterane distribution pattern of the studied oil seeps correspond to those from Cretaceous source rocks. The difference between Cretaceous oil seeps and potential source rock extracts was found in the intensity and distribution of n-alkanes, as well as in the abundance of asphaltenes which is connected to their biodegradation stage. In the Jurassic and Cretaceous potential source rock samples a mixture of aromatic hydrocarbons with their alkyl derivatives were indicated, whereas in the oil seep samples extracts only asphaltenes were observed.

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OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and recalibrated Framingham risk function on current morbidity from coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality data from the Swiss population. METHODS: Data from the CoLaus study, a cross-sectional, population-based study conducted between 2003 and 2006 on 5,773 participants aged 35-74 without CHD were used to recalibrate the Framingham risk function. The predicted number of events from each risk function were compared with those issued from local MONICA incidence rates and official mortality data from Switzerland. RESULTS: With the original risk function, 57.3%, 21.2%, 16.4% and 5.1% of men and 94.9%, 3.8%, 1.2% and 0.1% of women were at very low (<6%), low (6-10%), intermediate (10-20%) and high (>20%) risk, respectively. With the recalibrated risk function, the corresponding values were 84.7%, 10.3%, 4.3% and 0.6% in men and 99.5%, 0.4%, 0.0% and 0.1% in women, respectively. The number of CHD events over 10 years predicted by the original Framingham risk function was 2-3 fold higher than predicted by mortality+case fatality or by MONICA incidence rates (men: 191 vs. 92 and 51 events, respectively). The recalibrated risk function provided more reasonable estimates, albeit slightly overestimated (92 events, 5-95th percentile: 26-223 events); sensitivity analyses showed that the magnitude of the overestimation was between 0.4 and 2.2 in men, and 0.7 and 3.3 in women. CONCLUSION: The recalibrated Framingham risk function provides a reasonable alternative to assess CHD risk in men, but not in women.

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Background: Dyslipidemia, a major component of the metabolic syndrome and an important cardiovascular risk factor, is one of the commonest comorbidity associated with morbid obesity. The aim of this paper is to show that RYGBP markedly improves dyslipidemia and that this improvement maintains over time. Patients and Methods: Prospectively updated databank for bariatric patients. Patients undergoing RYGBP have yearly blood tests during follow-up. The results for lipids at one to five years were compared with preoperative values. Results: The mean excess BMI loss after one and five years was 77,9 % and 72,3%respectively. After one year, there was a significant reduction of the mean total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, total cholesterol/HDL ratio and triglyceride values, which maintained up to five years, and an increase of the HDL fraction, which progressed until five years. The proportion of patients with abnormal values decreased from 24,3 to 6,2% for total cholesterol, from 45,1 to 11,7 %for HDL, from 53,3 to 21,9 for LDL, and from 40,5 to 10 % for triglycerides, with no significant change between three and five years, despite some weight regain. Conclusions: RYGBP rapidly improves all components of dyslipidemia, and thereby reduces the overall cardiovascular risk in operated patients.

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The present study investigates the predictive value of the early appearance of simultaneous pointing-speech combinations. An experimental task was used to obtain a communicative productive sample from nineteen children at 1;0 and 1;3. Infant’s communicative productions, in combination with gaze joint engagement patterns, were analyzed in relation to different social conditions. The results show a significant effect of age and social condition on infants’ communicative productions. Gesture-speech combinations seem to work as a strong communicative resource to attract the adult’s attention in social demanding communicative contexts. Gaze joint engagement was used in combination with simultaneous pointing-speech combinations to attract adults’ attention during social demanding conditions. Finally, the use of simultaneous pointing-speech combinations at 1;0 in demanding conditions predicted greater expressive vocabulary acquisition at 1;3 and 1;6. These results indicate that the use of gesture-speech combinations may be considered a significant step towards the early integration of language components.

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Background: Visual analog scales (VAS) are used to assess readiness to changeconstructs, which are often considered critical for change.Objective: We studied whether 3 constructs -readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence inability to change- predict risk status 6 months later in 20 year-old men with either orboth of two behaviors: risky drinking and smoking. Methods: 577 participants in abrief intervention randomized trial were assessed at baseline and 6 months later onalcohol and tobacco consumption and with three 1-10 VAS (readiness, importance,confidence) for each behavior. For each behavior, we used one regression model foreach constructs. Models controlled for receipt of a brief intervention and used thelowest level (1-4) in each construct as the reference group (vs medium (5-7) and high(8-10) levels).Results: Among the 475 risky drinkers, mean (SD) readiness, importance and confidence to change drinking were 4.0 (3.1), 2.8 (2.2) and 7.2 (3.0).Readiness was not associated with being alcohol-risk free 6 months later (OR 1.3[0.7; 2.2] and 1.4 [0.8; 2.6] for medium and high readiness). High importance andhigh confidence were associated with being risk free (OR 0.9 [0.5; 1.8] and 2.9 [1.2;7.5] for medium and high importance; 2.1 [1.0;4.8] and 2.8 [1.5;5.6] for medium andhigh confidence). Among the 320 smokers, mean readiness, importance andconfidence to change smoking were 4.6 (2.6), 5.3 (2.6) and 5.9 (2.6). Neitherreadiness nor importance were associated with being smoking free (OR 2.1 [0.9; 4.7]and 2.1 [0.8; 5.8] for medium and high readiness; 1.4 [0.6; 3.4] and 2.1 [0.8; 5.4] formedium and high importance). High confidence was associated with being smokingfree (OR 2.2 [0.8;6.6] and 3.4 [1.2;9.8] for medium and high confidence).Conclusions: For drinking and smoking, high confidence in ability to change wasassociated -with similar magnitude- with a favorable outcome. This points to thevalue of confidence as an important predictor of successful change.

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The aim of this work is to study the influence of several analytical parameters on the variability of Raman spectra of paint samples. In the present study, microtome thin section and direct (no preparation) analysis are considered as sample preparation. In order to evaluate their influence on the measures, an experimental design such as 'fractional full factorial' with seven factors (including the sampling process) is applied, for a total of 32 experiments representing 160 measures. Once the influence of sample preparation highlighted, a depth profile of a paint sample is carried out by changing the focusing plane in order to measure the colored layer under a clearcoat. This is undertaken in order to avoid sample preparation such a microtome sectioning. Finally, chemometric treatments such as principal component analysis are applied to the resulting spectra. The findings of this study indicate the importance of sample preparation, or more specifically, the surface roughness, on the variability of the measurements on a same sample. Moreover, the depth profile experiment highlights the influence of the refractive index of the upper layer (clearcoat) when measuring through a transparent layer.

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Several methods and approaches for measuring parameters to determine fecal sources of pollution in water have been developed in recent years. No single microbial or chemical parameter has proved sufficient to determine the source of fecal pollution. Combinations of parameters involving at least one discriminating indicator and one universal fecal indicator offer the most promising solutions for qualitative and quantitative analyses. The universal (nondiscriminating) fecal indicator provides quantitative information regarding the fecal load. The discriminating indicator contributes to the identification of a specific source. The relative values of the parameters derived from both kinds of indicators could provide information regarding the contribution to the total fecal load from each origin. It is also essential that both parameters characteristically persist in the environment for similar periods. Numerical analysis, such as inductive learning methods, could be used to select the most suitable and the lowest number of parameters to develop predictive models. These combinations of parameters provide information on factors affecting the models, such as dilution, specific types of animal source, persistence of microbial tracers, and complex mixtures from different sources. The combined use of the enumeration of somatic coliphages and the enumeration of Bacteroides-phages using different host specific strains (one from humans and another from pigs), both selected using the suggested approach, provides a feasible model for quantitative and qualitative analyses of fecal source identification.

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The O6-methylguanine-DNA-methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation status is a predictive parameter for the response of malignant gliomas to alkylating agents such as temozolomide. First clinical trials with temozolomide plus bevacizumab therapy in metastatic melanoma patients are ongoing, although the predictive value of the MGMT promoter methylation status in this setting remains unclear. We assessed MGMT promoter methylation in formalin-fixed, primary tumor tissue of metastatic melanoma patients treated with first-line temozolomide and bevacizumab from the trial SAKK 50/07 by methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction. In addition, the MGMT expression levels were also analyzed by MGMT immunohistochemistry. Eleven of 42 primary melanomas (26%) revealed a methylated MGMT promoter. Promoter methylation was significantly associated with response rates CR + PR versus SD + PD according to RECIST (response evaluation criteria in solid tumors) (p<0.05) with a trend to prolonged median progression-free survival (8.1 versus 3.4 months, p>0.05). Immunohistochemically different protein expression patterns with heterogeneous and homogeneous nuclear MGMT expression were identified. Negative MGMT expression levels were associated with overall disease stabilization CR + PR + SD versus PD (p=0.05). There was only a poor correlation between MGMT methylation and lack of MGMT expression. A significant proportion of melanomas have a methylated MGMT promoter. The MGMT promoter methylation status may be a promising predictive marker for temozolomide therapy in metastatic melanoma patients. Larger sample sizes may help to validate significant differences in survival type endpoints.

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OBJECTIVES: Polypharmacy is one of the main management issues in public health policies because of its financial impact and the increasing number of people involved. The polymedicated population according to their demographic and therapeutic profile and the cost for the public healthcare system were characterised. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Primary healthcare in Barcelona Health Region, Catalonia, Spain (5 105 551 inhabitants registered). PARTICIPANTS: All insured polymedicated patients. Polymedicated patients were those with a consumption of ≥16 drugs/month. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: The study variables were related to age, gender and medication intake obtained from the 2008 census and records of prescriptions dispensed in pharmacies and charged to the public health system. RESULTS: There were 36 880 polymedicated patients (women: 64.2%; average age: 74.5±10.9 years). The total number of prescriptions billed in 2008 was 2 266 830 (2 272 920 total package units). The most polymedicated group (up to 40% of the total prescriptions) was patients between 75 and 84 years old. The average number of prescriptions billed monthly per patient was 32±2, with an average cost of 452.7±27.5. The total cost of those prescriptions corresponded to 2% of the drug expenditure in Catalonia. The groups N, C, A, R and M represented 71.4% of the total number of drug package units dispensed to polymedicated patients. Great variability was found between the medication profiles of men and women, and between age groups; greater discrepancies were found in paediatric patients (5-14 years) and the elderly (≥65 years). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides essential information to take steps towards rational drug use and a structured approach in the polymedicated population in primary healthcare.

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BACKGROUND: To asses the clinical profile, treatment outcome and prognostic factors in primary breast lymphoma (PBL). METHODS: Between 1970 and 2000, 84 consecutive patients with PBL were treated in 20 institutions of the Rare Cancer Network. Forty-six patients had Ann Arbor stage IE, 33 stage IIE, 1 stage IIIE, 2 stage IVE and 2 an unknown stage. Twenty-one underwent a mastectomy, 39 conservative surgery and 23 biopsy; 51 received radiotherapy (RT) with (n = 37) or without (n = 14) chemotherapy. Median RT dose was 40 Gy (range 12-55 Gy). RESULTS: Ten (12%) patients progressed locally and 43 (55%) had a systemic relapse. Central nervous system (CNS) was the site of relapse in 12 (14%) cases. The 5-yr overall survival, lymphoma-specific survival, disease-free survival and local control rates were 53%, 59%, 41% and 87% respectively. In the univariate analyses, favorable prognostic factors were early stage, conservative surgery, RT administration and combined modality treatment. Multivariate analysis showed that early stage and the use of RT were favorable prognostic factors. CONCLUSION: The outcome of PBL is fair. Local control is excellent with RT or combined modality treatment but systemic relapses, including that in the CNS, occurs frequently.

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We characterized lipid and lipoprotein changes associated with a lopinavir/ritonavir-containing regimen. We enrolled previously antiretroviral-naive patients participating in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. Fasting blood samples (baseline) were retrieved retrospectively from stored frozen plasma and posttreatment (follow-up) samples were collected prospectively at two separate visits. Lipids and lipoproteins were analyzed at a single reference laboratory. Sixty-five patients had two posttreatment lipid profile measurements and nine had only one. Most of the measured lipids and lipoprotein plasma concentrations increased on lopinavir/ritonavir-based treatment. The percentage of patients with hypertriglyceridemia (TG >150 mg/dl) increased from 28/74 (38%) at baseline to 37/65 (57%) at the second follow-up. We did not find any correlation between lopinavir plasma levels and the concentration of triglycerides. There was weak evidence of an increase in small dense LDL-apoB during the first year of treatment but not beyond 1 year (odds ratio 4.5, 90% CI 0.7 to 29 and 0.9, 90% CI 0.5 to 1.5, respectively). However, 69% of our patients still had undetectable small dense LDL-apoB levels while on treatment. LDL-cholesterol increased by a mean of 17 mg/dl (90% CI -3 to 37) during the first year of treatment, but mean values remained below the cut-off for therapeutic intervention. Despite an increase in the majority of measured lipids and lipoproteins particularly in the first year after initiation, we could not detect an obvious increase of cardiovascular risk resulting from the observed lipid changes.

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Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is one of the leading causes of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Nowadays, this condition is detected in the 3rt and last trimester of gestation when the pathology is already established and success of therapeutic strategies are limited. As the physiopathology of the disease suggests that the problem stems from poor placental implantation, it would be quite advantageous to identify women at increased risk in the first or second trimester of gestation because it then might be possible to offer treatment interventions or at least to establish increased surveillance for high risk pregnancies. Maternal levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β human chorionic gonadotropin (free βhCG) has been shown to be effective in first trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities, primarily trisomies 21, 13 and 18. Previous studies evaluating PAPP-A and free βhCG measured in the first trimester in relation with IUGR have provided conflicting results. Moreover, it has been suggested that black ethnicity is another important predictive factor for fetal growth restriction.Objective: To analyse the association between first trimester serum analytes (PAPP-A and free βhCG) and ethnicity with Intrauterine Growth Restriction.Methods: The study consists in a retrospective cohort, including all singleton pregnancies with complete outcome data that had undergone first trimester screening (PAPP-A and free βhCG) at 11-13+6weeks of gestation between 1/1/2010 - 31/12/2012 in Hospital Universitari Dr Josep Trueta. Biochemical markers are converted to multiples of the median (MoMs) and percentiles 5 and 10 are calculated. The association between free βhCG and PAPP-A with the incidence of IUGR is evaluated in combination with maternal ethnicity. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses are performed to adjust this association for co variables

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Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is one of the leading causes of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Nowadays, this condition is detected in the 3rt and last trimester of gestation when the pathology is already established and success of therapeutic strategies are limited. As the physiopathology of the disease suggests that the problem stems from poor placental implantation, it would be quite advantageous to identify women at increased risk in the first or second trimester of gestation because it then might be possible to offer treatment interventions or at least to establish increased surveillance for high risk pregnancies. Maternal levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β human chorionic gonadotropin (free βhCG) has been shown to be effective in first trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities, primarily trisomies 21, 13 and 18. Previous studies evaluating PAPP-A and free βhCG measured in the first trimester in relation with IUGR have provided conflicting results. Moreover, it has been suggested that black ethnicity is another important predictive factor for fetal growth restriction.Objective: To analyse the association between first trimester serum analytes (PAPP-A and free βhCG) and ethnicity with Intrauterine Growth Restriction.Methods: The study consists in a retrospective cohort, including all singleton pregnancies with complete outcome data that had undergone first trimester screening (PAPP-A and free βhCG) at 11-13+6weeks of gestation between 1/1/2010 - 31/12/2012 in Hospital Universitari Dr Josep Trueta. Biochemical markers are converted to multiples of the median (MoMs) and percentiles 5 and 10 are calculated. The association between free βhCG and PAPP-A with the incidence of IUGR is evaluated in combination with maternal ethnicity. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses are performed to adjust this association for co variables