965 resultados para predictions


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In Finland, peat harvesting sites are utilized down almost to the mineral soil. In this situation the properties of mineral subsoil are likely to have considerable influence on the suitability for the various after-use forms. The aims of this study were to recognize the chemical and physical properties of mineral subsoils possibly limiting the after-use of cut-over peatlands, to define a minimum practice for mineral subsoil studies and to describe the role of different geological areas. The future percentages of the different after-use forms were predicted, which made it possible to predict also carbon accumulation in this future situation. Mineral subsoils of 54 different peat production areas were studied. Their general features and grain size distribution was analysed. Other general items studied were pH, electrical conductivity, organic matter, water soluble nutrients (P, NO3-N, NH4-N, S and Fe) and exchangeable nutrients (Ca, Mg and K). In some cases also other elements were analysed. In an additional case study carbon accumulation effectiveness before the intervention was evaluated on three sites in Oulu area (representing sites typically considered for peat production). Areas with relatively sulphur rich mineral subsoil and pool-forming areas with very fine and compact mineral subsoil together covered approximately 1/5 of all areas. These areas were unsuitable for commercial use. They were recommended for example for mire regeneration. Another approximate 1/5 of the areas included very coarse or very fine sediments. Commercial use of these areas would demand special techniques - like using the remaining peat layer for compensating properties missing from the mineral subsoil. One after-use form was seldom suitable for one whole released peat production area. Three typical distribution patterns (models) of different mineral subsoils within individual peatlands were found. 57 % of studied cut-over peatlands were well suited for forestry. In a conservative calculation 26% of the areas were clearly suitable for agriculture, horticulture or energy crop production. If till without large boulders was included, the percentage of areas suitable to field crop production would be 42 %. 9-14 % of all areas were well suitable for mire regeneration or bird sanctuaries, but all areas were considered possible for mire regeneration with correct techniques. Also another 11 % was recommended for mire regeneration to avoid disturbing the mineral subsoil, so total 20-25 % of the areas would be used for rewetting. High sulphur concentrations and acidity were typical to the areas below the highest shoreline of the ancient Litorina sea and Lake Ladoga Bothnian Bay zone. Also differences related to nutrition were detected. In coarse sediments natural nutrient concentration was clearly higher in Lake Ladoga Bothnian Bay zone and in the areas of Svecokarelian schists and gneisses, than in Granitoid area of central Finland and in Archaean gneiss areas. Based on this study the recommended minimum analysis for after-use planning was for pH, sulphur content and fine material (<0.06 mm) percentage. Nutrition capacity could be analysed using the natural concentrations of calcium, magnesium and potassium. Carbon accumulation scenarios were developed based on the land-use predictions. These scenarios were calculated for areas in peat production and the areas released from peat production (59300 ha + 15 671 ha). Carbon accumulation of the scenarios varied between 0.074 and 0.152 million t C a-1. In the three peatlands considered for peat production the long term carbon accumulation rates varied between 13 and 24 g C m-2 a-1. The natural annual carbon accumulation had been decreasing towards the time of possible intervention.

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The spot or strip application of poisoned protein bait is a lure-and-kill technique used for the management of fruit flies. Knowledge of where flies occur in the crop environment is an important part of maximizing the efficacy of this tool. Bactrocera tryoni is a polyphagous pest of horticulture for which very little is known about its distribution within crops. With particular reference to edge effects, we monitored the abundance of B. tryoni in two crops of different architecture; strawberry and apple. In strawberries, we found more flies on the crop edge early in the fruiting season, which lessened gradually and eventually disappeared as the season progressed. In apple orchards, no such edge effect was observed and flies were found equally throughout the orchard. We postulated these differences may be due to differences in crop height (high vs. short) and/or crop canopy architecture (opened and branched in apple, dense and closed in strawberry). In a field cage trial, we tested these predictions using artificial plants of different height and canopy condition. Height and canopy structure type had no significant effects on fly oviposition and protein feeding, but the 'apple' type canopy significantly influenced resting. We thus postulate that there was an edge effect in strawberry because the crop was not providing resting sites and flies were doing so in vegetation around the field margins. The finding that B. tryoni shows different resting site preferences based on plant architecture offers the potential for strategic manipulation of the fly through specific border or inter-row plantings. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

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Healthy transparent cornea depends upon the regulation of fluid, nutrient and oxygen transport through the tissue to sustain cell metabolism and other critical processes for normal functioning. This research considers the corneal geometry and investigates oxygen distribution using a two-dimensional Monod kinetic model, showing that previous studies make assumptions that lead to predictions of near-anoxic levels of oxygen tension in the limbal regions of the cornea. It also considers the comparison of experimental spatial and temporal data with the predictions of novel mathematical models with respect to distributed mitotic rates during corneal epithelial wound healing.

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A rare opportunity to test hypotheses about potential fishery benefits of large-scale closures was initiated in July 2004 when an additional 28.4% of the 348 000 km2 Great Barrier Reef (GBR) region of Queensland, Australia was closed to all fishing. Advice to the Australian and Queensland governments that supported this initiative predicted these additional closures would generate minimal (10%) initial reductions in both catch and landed value within the GBR area, with recovery of catches becoming apparent after three years. To test these predictions, commercial fisheries data from the GBR area and from the two adjacent (non-GBR) areas of Queensland were compared for the periods immediately before and after the closures were implemented. The observed means for total annual catch and value within the GBR declined from pre-closure (2000–2003) levels of 12 780 Mg and Australian $160 million, to initial post-closure (2005–2008) levels of 8143 Mg and $102 million; decreases of 35% and 36% respectively. Because the reference areas in the non-GBR had minimal changes in catch and value, the beyond-BACI (before, after, control, impact) analyses estimated initial net reductions within the GBR of 35% for both total catch and value. There was no evidence of recovery in total catch levels or any comparative improvement in catch rates within the GBR nine years after implementation. These results are not consistent with the advice to governments that the closures would have minimal initial impacts and rapidly generate benefits to fisheries in the GBR through increased juvenile recruitment and adult spillovers. Instead, the absence of evidence of recovery in catches to date currently supports an alternative hypothesis that where there is already effective fisheries management, the closing of areas to all fishing will generate reductions in overall catches similar to the percentage of the fished area that is closed.

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Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

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The decay of sound in a rectangular room is analyzed for various boundary conditions on one of its walls. It is shown that the decay of the sound-intensity level is in general nonlinear. But for specific areas and impedances of the material it is possible to obtain a linear initial decay. It is also shown that the coefficients derived from the initial decay rates neither correspond to the predictions of Sabine's or Eyring's geometrical theories nor to the normal coefficients of Morse's wave theory. The dependence of the coefficients on the area of the material is discussed. The influence of the real and the imaginary parts of the specific acoustic impedance of the material on the coefficients is also discussed. Finally, the existence of a linear initial decay corresponding to the decay of a diffuse field in the case of a highly absorbing material partially covering a wall is explained on the basis of modal coupling.

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This paper reports the basic design of a new six component force balance system using miniature piezoelectric accelerometers to measure all aerodynamic forces and moments for a test model in hypersonic shock tunnel (HST2). Since the flow duration in a hypersonic shock tunnel is of the order of $1$ ms, the balance system [1] uses fast response accelerometers (PCB Piezotronics; frequency range of 1-10 kHz) for obtaining the aerodynamic data. The alance system has been used to measure the basic aerodynamic forces and moments on a missile shaped body at Mach $8$ in the IISc hypersonic shock tunnel. The experimentally measured values match well with theoretical predictions.

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Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

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In this thesis we study a series of multi-user resource-sharing problems for the Internet, which involve distribution of a common resource among participants of multi-user systems (servers or networks). We study concurrently accessible resources, which for end-users may be exclusively accessible or non-exclusively. For all kinds we suggest a separate algorithm or a modification of common reputation scheme. Every algorithm or method is studied from different perspectives: optimality of protocols, selfishness of end users, fairness of the protocol for end users. On the one hand the multifaceted analysis allows us to select the most suited protocols among a set of various available ones based on trade-offs of optima criteria. On the other hand, the future Internet predictions dictate new rules for the optimality we should take into account and new properties of the networks that cannot be neglected anymore. In this thesis we have studied new protocols for such resource-sharing problems as the backoff protocol, defense mechanisms against Denial-of-Service, fairness and confidentiality for users in overlay networks. For backoff protocol we present analysis of a general backoff scheme, where an optimization is applied to a general-view backoff function. It leads to an optimality condition for backoff protocols in both slot times and continuous time models. Additionally we present an extension for the backoff scheme in order to achieve fairness for the participants in an unfair environment, such as wireless signal strengths. Finally, for the backoff algorithm we suggest a reputation scheme that deals with misbehaving nodes. For the next problem -- denial-of-service attacks, we suggest two schemes that deal with the malicious behavior for two conditions: forged identities and unspoofed identities. For the first one we suggest a novel most-knocked-first-served algorithm, while for the latter we apply a reputation mechanism in order to restrict resource access for misbehaving nodes. Finally, we study the reputation scheme for the overlays and peer-to-peer networks, where resource is not placed on a common station, but spread across the network. The theoretical analysis suggests what behavior will be selected by the end station under such a reputation mechanism.

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The paradigm of computational vision hypothesizes that any visual function -- such as the recognition of your grandparent -- can be replicated by computational processing of the visual input. What are these computations that the brain performs? What should or could they be? Working on the latter question, this dissertation takes the statistical approach, where the suitable computations are attempted to be learned from the natural visual data itself. In particular, we empirically study the computational processing that emerges from the statistical properties of the visual world and the constraints and objectives specified for the learning process. This thesis consists of an introduction and 7 peer-reviewed publications, where the purpose of the introduction is to illustrate the area of study to a reader who is not familiar with computational vision research. In the scope of the introduction, we will briefly overview the primary challenges to visual processing, as well as recall some of the current opinions on visual processing in the early visual systems of animals. Next, we describe the methodology we have used in our research, and discuss the presented results. We have included some additional remarks, speculations and conclusions to this discussion that were not featured in the original publications. We present the following results in the publications of this thesis. First, we empirically demonstrate that luminance and contrast are strongly dependent in natural images, contradicting previous theories suggesting that luminance and contrast were processed separately in natural systems due to their independence in the visual data. Second, we show that simple cell -like receptive fields of the primary visual cortex can be learned in the nonlinear contrast domain by maximization of independence. Further, we provide first-time reports of the emergence of conjunctive (corner-detecting) and subtractive (opponent orientation) processing due to nonlinear projection pursuit with simple objective functions related to sparseness and response energy optimization. Then, we show that attempting to extract independent components of nonlinear histogram statistics of a biologically plausible representation leads to projection directions that appear to differentiate between visual contexts. Such processing might be applicable for priming, \ie the selection and tuning of later visual processing. We continue by showing that a different kind of thresholded low-frequency priming can be learned and used to make object detection faster with little loss in accuracy. Finally, we show that in a computational object detection setting, nonlinearly gain-controlled visual features of medium complexity can be acquired sequentially as images are encountered and discarded. We present two online algorithms to perform this feature selection, and propose the idea that for artificial systems, some processing mechanisms could be selectable from the environment without optimizing the mechanisms themselves. In summary, this thesis explores learning visual processing on several levels. The learning can be understood as interplay of input data, model structures, learning objectives, and estimation algorithms. The presented work adds to the growing body of evidence showing that statistical methods can be used to acquire intuitively meaningful visual processing mechanisms. The work also presents some predictions and ideas regarding biological visual processing.

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Objective To identify measures that most closely relate to hydration in healthy Brahman-cross neonatal calves that experience milk deprivation. Methods In a dry tropical environment, eight neonatal Brahman-cross calves were prevented from suckling for 2–3 days during which measurements were performed twice daily. Results Mean body water, as estimated by the mean urea space, was 74 ± 3% of body weight at full hydration. The mean decrease in hydration was 7.3 ± 1.1% per day. The rate of decrease was more than three-fold higher during the day than at night. At an ambient temperature of 39°C, the decrease in hydration averaged 1.1% hourly. Measures that were most useful in predicting the degree of hydration in both simple and multiple-regression prediction models were body weight, hindleg length, girth, ambient and oral temperatures, eyelid tenting, alertness score and plasma sodium. These parameters are different to those recommended for assessing calves with diarrhoea. Single-measure predictions had a standard error of at least 5%, which reduced to 3–4% if multiple measures were used. Conclusion We conclude that simple assessment of non-suckling Brahman-cross neonatal calves can estimate the severity of dehydration, but the estimates are imprecise. Dehydration in healthy neonatal calves that do not have access to milk can exceed 20% (>15% weight loss) in 1–3 days under tropical conditions and at this point some are unable to recover without clinical intervention.

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Variety selection in perennial pasture crops involves identifying best varieties from data collected from multiple harvest times in field trials. For accurate selection, the statistical methods for analysing such data need to account for the spatial and temporal correlation typically present. This paper provides an approach for analysing multi-harvest data from variety selection trials in which there may be a large number of harvest times. Methods are presented for modelling the variety by harvest effects while accounting for the spatial and temporal correlation between observations. These methods provide an improvement in model fit compared to separate analyses for each harvest, and provide insight into variety by harvest interactions. The approach is illustrated using two traits from a lucerne variety selection trial. The proposed method provides variety predictions allowing for the natural sources of variation and correlation in multi-harvest data.

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Numerical predictions are obtained for laminar natural convection of air in a square two dimensional cavity at high Rayleigh numbers. Proper resolution of the core reveals weak multi-cellular structure which varies in a complex manner as the effects of convection are increased. The end of the steady laminar regime is numerically estimated to occur at Ra=2.2x10^8.

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A computer program has been developed for the prediction of buoyancy-driven laminar and turbulent flow in rectangular air-filled two-dimensional cavities with differentially heated side walls. Laminar flow predictions for a square cavity and Rayleigh numbers from Ra = 10^3 up to the onset of unsteady flow have been obtained. Accurate solutions for Ra = 5 x 10^6, 10^7, 5 x 10^7 and 10^8 are presented and an estimate for the critical Rayleigh number at which the steady laminar flow becomes unsteady is given for this geometry. Numerical predictions of turbulent flow have been obtained for RaH~0(10^9 -10^11 ) and compared with existing experimental data. A previously developed second moment closure model (Behnia et al. 1987) has been used to model the turbulence. Results indicate that a second moment closure model is capable of predicting the observed flow features.

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"This chapter discusses laminar and turbulent natural convection in rectangular cavities. Natural convection in rectangular two-dimensional cavities has become a standard problem in numerical heat transfer because of its relevance in understanding a number of problems in engineering. Current research identified a number of difficulties with regard to the numerical methods and the turbulence modeling for this class of flows. Obtaining numerical predictions at high Rayleigh numbers proved computationally expensive such that results beyond Ra ∼ 1014 are rarely reported. The chapter discusses a study in which it was found that turbulent computations in square cavities can't be extended beyond Ra ∼ O (1012) despite having developed a code that proved very efficient for the high Ra laminar regime. As the Rayleigh number increased, thin boundary layers began to form next to the vertical walls, and the central region became progressively more stagnant and highly stratified. Results obtained for the high Ra laminar regime were in good agreement with existing studies. Turbulence computations, although of a preliminary nature, indicated that a second moment closure model was capable of predicting the experimentally observed flow features."--Publisher Summary