Concordance in global office market cycles

Concordance in global office market cycles, Regional Studies. A large proportion of international real estate investment is concentrated in the office markets of the world's largest cities. However, many of these global cities are also key financial services centres, highlighting the possibility of reduced economic diversification from an investor's perspective. This paper assesses the degree of synchronization in cycles across twenty of the world's largest office markets, finding evidence of significant concordance across a large number of markets. The results highlight the problems associated with commonalities in the underlying economic bases of the markets. The concentration of investment also raises the possibility of common flow of funds effects that may further reduce diversification opportunities.

The impact of eBusiness on the City of London office market

The City of London is a major financial centre where the property market is heavily dependent on the space requirements of office occupiers. Technological change, however, is changing the way in which organisations conduct their business and is challenging the continued locational pull of the City. This research presents findings from a major survey of City occupiers carried out by The College research team during 2002. The research examines how the shape and form of the office property market in the City will be affected by process change in eBusiness and related technology over the next 5 years. The report, which includes an extensive literature review, examines the implications of increased homeworking and other trends for future office supply in the City. The research was funded by the Worshipful Company of Chartered Surveyors Trust (Toby Sutton Research Award), and part of the literature review by the Small Business Support Research Unit of DTI. It is essential reading for surveyors, planners, facilities managers and all those interested in the technology and property interface.

Evolution and change in the serviced office sector: a decade later

With particular reference to its role in the corporate real estate supply chain, this paper focuses on how the serviced office sector in the UK has evolved and changed over the last decade. A qualitative research approach involving 21 semi-structured interviews with corporate clients of serviced office operators was used to address a number of issues regarding the perceptions of users of serviced offices. It is concluded that the serviced office sector has become an established sector of the UK’s commercial real estate market providing an essential product for many corporate organisations. The serviced office sector has been relatively nimble and a range of operational models have emerged. It was found that corporate organisations use serviced office space and services in order to align workforce change with portfolio change, to transfer risk, for short-term project space, as temporary overflow space, to pilot a new location, to become familiar with a specific geographical marketplace or simply to gain an initial presence in an area.

People or machines? Assessing the impacts of smart meters and load controllers in Italian office spaces

Government initiatives in several developed and developing countries to roll-out smart meters call for research on the sustainability impacts of these devices. In principle smart meters bring about higher control over energy theft and lower consumption, but require a high level of engagement by end-users. An alternative consists of load controllers, which control the load according to pre-set parameters. To date, research has focused on the impacts of these two alternatives separately. This study compares the sustainability impacts of smart meters and load controllers in an occupied office building in Italy. The assessment is carried out on three different floors of the same building. Findings show that demand reductions associated with a smart meter device are 5.2% higher than demand reductions associated with the load controller.

Comparing tropical precipitation simulated by the Met Office NWP and climate models with satellite observations

Forecasts of precipitation and water vapor made by the Met Office global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are evaluated using products from satellite observations by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) for June–September 2011, with a focus on tropical areas (308S–308N). Consistent with previous studies, the predicted diurnal cycle of precipitation peaks too early (by ;3 h) and the amplitude is too strong over both tropical ocean and land regions. Most of the wet and dry precipitation biases, particularly those over land, can be explained by the diurnal-cycle discrepancies. An overall wet bias over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans and a dry bias over the western Pacific warmpool and India are linked with similar biases in the climate model, which shares common parameterizations with the NWP version. Whereas precipitation biases develop within hours in the NWP model, underestimates in water vapor (which are assimilated by the NWP model) evolve over the first few days of the forecast. The NWP simulations are able to capture observed daily-to-intraseasonal variability in water vapor and precipitation, including fluctuations associated with tropical cyclones.

A semiotic framework for information representation of energy consumption in office buildings

Taking a perspective from a whole building lifecycle, occupier's actions could account for about 50% of energy. However occupants' activities influence building energy performance is still a blind area. Building energy performance is thought to be the result of a combination of building fabrics, building services and occupants' activities, along with their interactions. In this sense, energy consumption in built environment is regarded as a socio-technical system. In order to understand how such a system works, a range of physical, technical and social information is involved that needs to be integrated and aligned. This paper has proposed a semiotic framework to add value for Building Information Modelling, incorporating energy-related occupancy factors in a context of office buildings. Further, building information has been addressed semantically to describe a building space from the facility management perspective. Finally, the framework guides to set up building information representation system, which can help facility managers to manage buildings efficiently by improving their understanding on how office buildings are operated and used.

The Met Office unified model global atmosphere 4.0 and JULES global land 4.0 configurations

We describe Global Atmosphere 4.0 (GA4.0) and Global Land 4.0 (GL4.0): configurations of the Met Office Unified Model and JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) community land surface model developed for use in global and regional climate research and weather prediction activities. GA4.0 and GL4.0 are based on the previous GA3.0 and GL3.0 configurations, with the inclusion of developments made by the Met Office and its collaborators during its annual development cycle. This paper provides a comprehensive technical and scientific description of GA4.0 and GL4.0 as well as details of how these differ from their predecessors. We also present the results of some initial evaluations of their performance. Overall, performance is comparable with that of GA3.0/GL3.0; the updated configurations include improvements to the science of several parametrisation schemes, however, and will form a baseline for further ongoing development.

A review of existing building benchmarks and the development of a set of reference office buildings for England and Wales

The modern built environment has become more complex in terms of building types, environmental systems and use profiles. This complexity causes difficulties in terms of optimising buildings energy design. In this circumstance, introducing a set of prototype reference buildings, or so called benchmark buildings, that are able to represent all or majority parts of the UK building stock may be useful for the examination of the impact of national energy policies on building energy consumption. This study proposes a set of reference office buildings for England and Wales based on the information collected from the Non-Domestic Building Stock (NDBS) project and an intensive review of the existing building benchmarks. The proposed building benchmark comprises 10 prototypical reference buildings, which in relation to built form and size, represent 95% of office buildings in England and Wales. This building benchmark provides a platform for those involved in building energy simulations to evaluate energy-efficiency measures and for policy-makers to assess the influence of different building energy policies.

Simple prompts reduce inadvertent energy consumption from lighting in office buildings

Building designs regularly fail to achieve the anticipated levels of in-use energy consumption. The interaction of occupants with building controls is often cited as a key factor behind this discrepancy. This paper examines whether one factor in inadvertent energy consumption might be the appearance of post-completion errors (when an intended action is not taken because a primary goal has already been accomplished) in occupants’ interactions with building controls. Post-completion errors have been widely studied in human-computer interaction but the concept has not previously been applied to the interaction of occupants with building controls. Two experiments were carried out to examine the effect of incorporating two different types of simple prompt to reduce post-completion error in the use of light switches in office meeting rooms. Results showed that the prompts were effective and that occupants switched off lights when leaving the room more often when presented with a normative prompt than with a standard injunction. Additionally, an over reliance on PIR sensors to turn off lights after meetings was observed, which reduced their intended energy savings. We conclude that achieving low carbon buildings in practice is not solely a technological issue and that application of user-models from human-computer interaction will encourage appropriate occupant interaction with building controls and help reduce inadvertent energy consumption.

Impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the Met Office global numerical weather prediction model.

The inclusion of the direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols in high-resolution global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is being increasingly recognised as important for the improved accuracy of short-range weather forecasts. In this study the impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the global NWP configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) are investigated. A hierarchy of aerosol representations are evaluated including three-dimensional monthly mean speciated aerosol climatologies, fully prognostic aerosols modelled using the CLASSIC aerosol scheme and finally, initialised aerosols using assimilated aerosol fields from the GEMS project. The prognostic aerosol schemes are better able to predict the temporal and spatial variation of atmospheric aerosol optical depth, which is particularly important in cases of large sporadic aerosol events such as large dust storms or forest fires. Including the direct effect of aerosols improves model biases in outgoing long-wave radiation over West Africa due to a better representation of dust. However, uncertainties in dust optical properties propagate to its direct effect and the subsequent model response. Inclusion of the indirect aerosol effects improves surface radiation biases at the North Slope of Alaska ARM site due to lower cloud amounts in high-latitude clean-air regions. This leads to improved temperature and height forecasts in this region. Impacts on the global mean model precipitation and large-scale circulation fields were found to be generally small in the short-range forecasts. However, the indirect aerosol effect leads to a strengthening of the low-level monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and an increase in precipitation over Southeast Asia. Regional impacts on the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) are also presented with the large dust loading in the aerosol climatology enhancing of the heat low over West Africa and weakening the AEJ. This study highlights the importance of including a more realistic treatment of aerosol–cloud interactions in global NWP models and the potential for improved global environmental prediction systems through the incorporation of more complex aerosol schemes.

A coupled cloud physics–radiation parameterization of the bulk optical properties of cirrus and its impact on the Met Office unified model global atmosphere 5.0 configuration

A new coupled cloud physics–radiation parameterization of the bulk optical properties of ice clouds is presented. The parameterization is consistent with assumptions in the cloud physics scheme regarding particle size distributions (PSDs) and mass–dimensional relationships. The parameterization is based on a weighted ice crystal habit mixture model, and its bulk optical properties are parameterized as simple functions of wavelength and ice water content (IWC). This approach directly couples IWC to the bulk optical properties, negating the need for diagnosed variables, such as the ice crystal effective dimension. The parameterization is implemented into the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 5.0 (GA5) configuration. The GA5 configuration is used to simulate the annual 20-yr shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), as well as the temperature structure of the atmosphere, under various microphysical assumptions. The coupled parameterization is directly compared against the current operational radiation parameterization, while maintaining the same cloud physics assumptions. In this experiment, the impacts of the two parameterizations on the SW and LW radiative effects at TOA are also investigated and compared against observations. The 20-yr simulations are compared against the latest observations of the atmospheric temperature and radiative fluxes at TOA. The comparisons demonstrate that the choice of PSD and the assumed ice crystal shape distribution are as important as each other. Moreover, the consistent radiation parameterization removes a long-standing tropical troposphere cold temperature bias but slightly warms the southern midlatitudes by about 0.5 K.

The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations

We describe Global Atmosphere 3.0 (GA3.0): a configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) developed for use across climate research and weather prediction activities. GA3.0 has been formulated by converging the development paths of the Met Office's weather and climate global atmospheric model components such that wherever possible, atmospheric processes are modelled or parametrized seamlessly across spatial resolutions and timescales. This unified development process will provide the Met Office and its collaborators with regular releases of a configuration that has been evaluated, and can hence be applied, over a variety of modelling régimes. We also describe Global Land 3.0 (GL3.0): a configuration of the JULES community land surface model developed for use with GA3.0.

Identifying behavioural predictors of small power electricity consumption in office buildings

It is widely accepted that there is a gap between design energy and real world operational energy consumption. The behaviour of occupants is often cited as an important factor influencing building energy performance. However, its consideration, both during design and operation, is overly simplistic, often assuming a direct link between attitudes and behaviour. Alternative models of decision making from psychology highlight a range of additional influential factors and emphasise that occupants do not always act in a rational manner. Developing a better understanding of occupant decision making could help inform office energy conservation campaigns as well as models of behaviour employed during the design process. This paper assesses the contribution of various behavioural constructs on small power consumption in offices. The method is based upon the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) which assumes that intention is driven by three factors: attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioural control, but we also consider a fourth construct: habit measured through the Self- Report Habit Index (SRHI). A questionnaire was issued to 81 participants in two UK offices. Questionnaire results for each behavioural construct were correlated against each participant’s individual workstation electricity consumption. The intentional processes proposed by TPB could not account for the observed differences in occupants’ interactions with small power appliances. Instead, occupants were interacting with small power “automatically”, with habit accounting for 11% of the variation in workstation energy consumption. The implications for occupant behaviour models and employee engagement campaigns are discussed.

Which factors drive rental depreciation rates for office and industrial properties?

As new buildings are constructed in response to changes in technology or user requirements, the value of the existing stock will decline in relative terms. This is termed economic depreciation and it may be influenced by the age and quality of buildings, amount and timing of expenditure, and wider market and economic conditions. This study tests why individual assets experience different depreciation rates, applying panel regression techniques to 375 UK office and industrial assets. Results suggest that rental value depreciation rates reduce as buildings get older, while a composite measure of age and quality provides more explanation of depreciation than age alone. Furthermore, economic and local real estate market conditions are significant in explaining how depreciation rates change over time.