A DST-based Approach for Construction Project Risk Analysis

Despite its huge potential in risk analysis, the Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) has not received enough attention in construction management. This paper presents a DST-based approach for structuring personal experience and professional judgment when assessing construction project risk. DST was innovatively used to tackle the problem of lacking sufficient information through enabling analysts to provide incomplete assessments. Risk cost is used as a common scale for measuring risk impact on the various project objectives, and the Evidential Reasoning algorithm is suggested as a novel alternative for aggregating individual assessments. A spreadsheet-based decision support system (DSS) was devised to facilitate the proposed approach. Four case studies were conducted to examine the approach's viability. Senior managers in four British construction companies tried the DSS and gave very promising feedback. The paper concludes that the proposed methodology may contribute to bridging the gap between theory and practice of construction risk assessment.

Field Evaluation of a Competitive Lateral-flow Assay for Detection of Alternaria brassicae in Vegetable Brassica Crops

On-site detection of inoculum of polycyclic plant pathogens could potentially contribute to management of disease outbreaks. A 6-min, in-field competitive immunochromatographic lateral flow device (CLFD) assay was developed for detection of Alternaria brassicae (the cause of dark leaf spot in brassica crops) in air sampled above the crop canopy. Visual recording of the test result by eye provides a detection threshold of approximately 50 dark leaf spot conidia. Assessment using a portable reader improved test sensitivity. In combination with a weather-driven infection model, CLFD assays were evaluated as part of an in-field risk assessment to identify periods when brassica crops were at risk from A. brassicae infection. The weather-driven model overpredicted A. brassicae infection. An automated 7-day multivial cyclone air sampler combined with a daily in-field CLFD assay detected A. brassicae conidia air samples from above the crops. Integration of information from an in-field detection system (CLFD) with weather-driven mathematical models predicting pathogen infection have the potential for use within disease management systems.

Conception, fabrication et caractérisation d'un biocapteur SPR à base de guides d'ondes photoniques sur substrat de verre

Résumé : Malgré le nombre croissant de capteurs dans les domaines de la chimie et la biologie, il reste encore à étudier en profondeur la complexité des interactions entre les différentes molécules présentes lors d’une détection à l’interface solide-liquide. Dans ce cadre, il est de tout intérêt de croiser différentes méthodes de détection afin d’obtenir des informations complémentaires. Le principal objectif de cette étude est de dimensionner, fabriquer et caractériser un détecteur optique intégré sur verre basé sur la résonance plasmonique de surface, destiné à terme à être combiné avec d’autres techniques de détection, dont un microcalorimètre. La résonance plasmonique de surface est une technique reconnue pour sa sensibilité adaptée à la détection de surface, qui a l’avantage d’être sans marquage et permet de fournir un suivi en temps réel de la cinétique d’une réaction. L’avantage principal de ce capteur est qu’il a été dimensionné pour une large gamme d’indice de réfraction de l’analyte, allant de 1,33 à 1,48. Ces valeurs correspondent à la plupart des entités biologiques associées à leurs couches d’accroche dont les matrices de polymères, présentés dans ce travail. Étant donné que beaucoup d’études biologiques nécessitent la comparaison de la mesure à une référence ou à une autre mesure, le second objectif du projet est d’étudier le potentiel du système SPR intégré sur verre pour la détection multi-analyte. Les trois premiers chapitres se concentrent sur l’objectif principal du projet. Le dimensionnement du dispositif est ainsi présenté, basé sur deux modélisations différentes, associées à plusieurs outils de calcul analytique et numérique. La première modélisation, basée sur l’approximation des interactions faibles, permet d’obtenir la plupart des informations nécessaires au dimensionnement du dispositif. La seconde modélisation, sans approximation, permet de valider le premier modèle approché et de compléter et affiner le dimensionnement. Le procédé de fabrication de la puce optique sur verre est ensuite décrit, ainsi que les instruments et protocoles de caractérisation. Un dispositif est obtenu présentant des sensibilités volumiques entre 1000 nm/RIU et 6000 nm/RIU suivant l’indice de réfraction de l’analyte. L’intégration 3D du guide grâce à son enterrage sélectif dans le verre confère au dispositif une grande compacité, le rendant adapté à la cointégration avec un microcalorimètre en particulier. Le dernier chapitre de la thèse présente l’étude de plusieurs techniques de multiplexage spectral adaptées à un système SPR intégré, exploitant en particulier la technologie sur verre. L’objectif est de fournir au moins deux détections simultanées. Dans ce cadre, plusieurs solutions sont proposées et les dispositifs associés sont dimensionnés, fabriqués et testés.

Gestão de desempenho numa rede celular

A realização desta dissertação tem como principal objetivo a análise de indicadores chave de desempenho numa rede celular de terceira geração - Universal Mobile Telecommunication System (UMTS), bem como a aplicação de técnicas matemáticas de previsão como apoio ao respetivo planeamento e otimização. Para o efeito, foi inicialmente efetuado um estudo sobre a evolução das comunicações de uma forma generalista, até às redes de nova geração, abordando individualmente, as de voz, as de dados e as comunicações móveis, assim como, uma breve descrição das organizações envolvidas nestas mudanças. No seguimento do estudo inicial, dando enfoque à tecnologia UMTS, foram expostas as suas características, a sua estrutura e arquitetura. Foram ainda elaboradas, duas comparações, com base em diferentes parâmetros, uma com a tecnologia da geração anterior e outra, com a de última geração. Com base nos conhecimentos adquiridos em diferentes pesquisas, foram estudados, os indicadores chave de desempenho (KPIs), as técnicas de planeamento e otimização, apresentando propostas de prevenção e soluções para problemas existentes na rede.

Security and Trust in Distributed Computation

We propose three research problems to explore the relations between trust and security in the setting of distributed computation. In the first problem, we study trust-based adversary detection in distributed consensus computation. The adversaries we consider behave arbitrarily disobeying the consensus protocol. We propose a trust-based consensus algorithm with local and global trust evaluations. The algorithm can be abstracted using a two-layer structure with the top layer running a trust-based consensus algorithm and the bottom layer as a subroutine executing a global trust update scheme. We utilize a set of pre-trusted nodes, headers, to propagate local trust opinions throughout the network. This two-layer framework is flexible in that it can be easily extensible to contain more complicated decision rules, and global trust schemes. The first problem assumes that normal nodes are homogeneous, i.e. it is guaranteed that a normal node always behaves as it is programmed. In the second and third problems however, we assume that nodes are heterogeneous, i.e, given a task, the probability that a node generates a correct answer varies from node to node. The adversaries considered in these two problems are workers from the open crowd who are either investing little efforts in the tasks assigned to them or intentionally give wrong answers to questions. In the second part of the thesis, we consider a typical crowdsourcing task that aggregates input from multiple workers as a problem in information fusion. To cope with the issue of noisy and sometimes malicious input from workers, trust is used to model workers' expertise. In a multi-domain knowledge learning task, however, using scalar-valued trust to model a worker's performance is not sufficient to reflect the worker's trustworthiness in each of the domains. To address this issue, we propose a probabilistic model to jointly infer multi-dimensional trust of workers, multi-domain properties of questions, and true labels of questions. Our model is very flexible and extensible to incorporate metadata associated with questions. To show that, we further propose two extended models, one of which handles input tasks with real-valued features and the other handles tasks with text features by incorporating topic models. Our models can effectively recover trust vectors of workers, which can be very useful in task assignment adaptive to workers' trust in the future. These results can be applied for fusion of information from multiple data sources like sensors, human input, machine learning results, or a hybrid of them. In the second subproblem, we address crowdsourcing with adversaries under logical constraints. We observe that questions are often not independent in real life applications. Instead, there are logical relations between them. Similarly, workers that provide answers are not independent of each other either. Answers given by workers with similar attributes tend to be correlated. Therefore, we propose a novel unified graphical model consisting of two layers. The top layer encodes domain knowledge which allows users to express logical relations using first-order logic rules and the bottom layer encodes a traditional crowdsourcing graphical model. Our model can be seen as a generalized probabilistic soft logic framework that encodes both logical relations and probabilistic dependencies. To solve the collective inference problem efficiently, we have devised a scalable joint inference algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers. The third part of the thesis considers the problem of optimal assignment under budget constraints when workers are unreliable and sometimes malicious. In a real crowdsourcing market, each answer obtained from a worker incurs cost. The cost is associated with both the level of trustworthiness of workers and the difficulty of tasks. Typically, access to expert-level (more trustworthy) workers is more expensive than to average crowd and completion of a challenging task is more costly than a click-away question. In this problem, we address the problem of optimal assignment of heterogeneous tasks to workers of varying trust levels with budget constraints. Specifically, we design a trust-aware task allocation algorithm that takes as inputs the estimated trust of workers and pre-set budget, and outputs the optimal assignment of tasks to workers. We derive the bound of total error probability that relates to budget, trustworthiness of crowds, and costs of obtaining labels from crowds naturally. Higher budget, more trustworthy crowds, and less costly jobs result in a lower theoretical bound. Our allocation scheme does not depend on the specific design of the trust evaluation component. Therefore, it can be combined with generic trust evaluation algorithms.

Development of a whole cell biochip for toxicant detection.

In the development of biosensors for ecotoxicity testing it is desirable to produce a small, portable system that can be used in the field. Toxicity testing using bioluminescence is widely used in the laboratory utilising natural and genetically modified (lux/ luc-marked) bacteria and other microorganisms. It is currently not possible to use genetically manipulated microorganisms in field testing and a biosensor, therefore, that incorporates naturally luminescent organisms may be preferred. In the development of a biosensor it is aimed to use the naturally luminescent bacterium Vibrio fischeri as a toxicity detection system on a chip. The bacterium will be immobilised in a polymeric matrix. Current work deals with the optimisation of light output and light preservation within the bacterium prior to immobilisation in polyvinyl alcohol. An examination of a range of physicochemical conditions within the polymer will be made, including cell density, thickness of polymer film, growth and light induction environment, and, preservation conditions, in order to develop a testing system giving consistent results over the lifetime of the biosensor. Data will be presented on light production using different culture media for the growth of V. fischeri and retention of light under immobilised conditions. .

The mating system of the true fruit flyBactrocera tryoniand its sister-species, Bactrocera neohumeralis

The frugivorous “true” fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Queensland fruit fly), is presumed to have a nonresourced-based lek mating system. This is largely untested, and contrary data exists to suggest Bactrocera tryoni may have a resource-based mating system focused on fruiting host plants. We tested the mating system of Bactrocera tryoni, and its close sibling Bactrocera neohumeralis, in large field cages using laboratory reared flies. We used observational experiments that allowed us to determine if: (i) mating pairs were aggregated or nonaggregated; (ii) mating system was resource or nonresource based; (iii) flies utilized possible landmarks (tall trees over short) as mate-rendezvous sites; and (iv) males called females from male-dominated leks. We recorded nearly 250 Bactrocera tryoni mating pairs across all experiments, revealing that: (i) mating pairs were aggregated; (ii) mating nearly always occurred in tall trees over short; (iii) mating was nonresource based; and (iv) that males and females arrived at the mate-rendezvous site together with no evidence that males preceded females. Bactrocera neohumeralis copulations were much more infrequent (only 30 mating pairs in total), but for those pairs there was a similar preference for tall trees and no evidence of a resource-based mating system. Some aspects of Bactrocera tryoni mating behavior align with theoretical expectations of a lekking system, but others do not. Until evidence for unequivocal female choice can be provided (as predicted under a true lek), the mating system of Bactrocera tryoni is best described as a nonresource based, aggregation system for which we also have evidence that land-marking may be involved.

Multiple-Retrieval Case-Based Reasoning for Course Timetabling Problems

The structured representation of cases by attribute graphs in a Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) system for course timetabling has been the subject of previous research by the authors. In that system, the case base is organised as a decision tree and the retrieval process chooses those cases which are sub attribute graph isomorphic to the new case. The drawback of that approach is that it is not suitable for solving large problems. This paper presents a multiple-retrieval approach that partitions a large problem into small solvable sub-problems by recursively inputting the unsolved part of the graph into the decision tree for retrieval. The adaptation combines the retrieved partial solutions of all the partitioned sub-problems and employs a graph heuristic method to construct the whole solution for the new case. We present a methodology which is not dependant upon problem specific information and which, as such, represents an approach which underpins the goal of building more general timetabling systems. We also explore the question of whether this multiple-retrieval CBR could be an effective initialisation method for local search methods such as Hill Climbing, Tabu Search and Simulated Annealing. Significant results are obtained from a wide range of experiments. An evaluation of the CBR system is presented and the impact of the approach on timetabling research is discussed. We see that the approach does indeed represent an effective initialisation method for these approaches.

Multiple-retrieval case-based reasoning for course timetabling problems

The structured representation of cases by attribute graphs in a Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) system for course timetabling has been the subject of previous research by the authors. In that system, the case base is organised as a decision tree and the retrieval process chooses those cases which are sub attribute graph isomorphic to the new case. The drawback of that approach is that it is not suitable for solving large problems. This paper presents a multiple-retrieval approach that partitions a large problem into small solvable sub-problems by recursively inputting the unsolved part of the graph into the decision tree for retrieval. The adaptation combines the retrieved partial solutions of all the partitioned sub-problems and employs a graph heuristic method to construct the whole solution for the new case. We present a methodology which is not dependant upon problem specific information and which, as such, represents an approach which underpins the goal of building more general timetabling systems. We also explore the question of whether this multiple-retrieval CBR could be an effective initialisation method for local search methods such as Hill Climbing, Tabu Search and Simulated Annealing. Significant results are obtained from a wide range of experiments. An evaluation of the CBR system is presented and the impact of the approach on timetabling research is discussed. We see that the approach does indeed represent an effective initialisation method for these approaches.

Optimal Budget-Constrained Sample Allocation for Selection Decisions with Multiple Uncertain Attributes

A decision-maker, when faced with a limited and fixed budget to collect data in support of a multiple attribute selection decision, must decide how many samples to observe from each alternative and attribute. This allocation decision is of particular importance when the information gained leads to uncertain estimates of the attribute values as with sample data collected from observations such as measurements, experimental evaluations, or simulation runs. For example, when the U.S. Department of Homeland Security must decide upon a radiation detection system to acquire, a number of performance attributes are of interest and must be measured in order to characterize each of the considered systems. We identified and evaluated several approaches to incorporate the uncertainty in the attribute value estimates into a normative model for a multiple attribute selection decision. Assuming an additive multiple attribute value model, we demonstrated the idea of propagating the attribute value uncertainty and describing the decision values for each alternative as probability distributions. These distributions were used to select an alternative. With the goal of maximizing the probability of correct selection we developed and evaluated, under several different sets of assumptions, procedures to allocate the fixed experimental budget across the multiple attributes and alternatives. Through a series of simulation studies, we compared the performance of these allocation procedures to the simple, but common, allocation procedure that distributed the sample budget equally across the alternatives and attributes. We found the allocation procedures that were developed based on the inclusion of decision-maker knowledge, such as knowledge of the decision model, outperformed those that neglected such information. Beginning with general knowledge of the attribute values provided by Bayesian prior distributions, and updating this knowledge with each observed sample, the sequential allocation procedure performed particularly well. These observations demonstrate that managing projects focused on a selection decision so that the decision modeling and the experimental planning are done jointly, rather than in isolation, can improve the overall selection results.

THE FEASIBILITY OF USING WEB-BASED TECHNOLOGY FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF DREDGING PROJECTS

The research investigates the feasibility of using web-based project management systems for dredging. To achieve this objective the research assessed both the positive and negative aspects of using web-based technology for the management of dredging projects. Information gained from literature review and prior investigations of dredging projects revealed that project performance, social, political, technical, and business aspects of the organization were important factors in deciding to use web-based systems for the management of dredging projects. These factors were used to develop the research assumptions. An exploratory case study methodology was used to gather the empirical evidence and perform the analysis. An operational prototype of the system was developed to help evaluate developmental and functional requirements, as well as the influence on performance, and on the organization. The evidence gathered from three case study projects, and from a survey of 31 experts, were used to validate the assumptions. Baselines, representing the assumptions, were created as a reference to assess the responses and qualitative measures. The deviation of the responses was used to evaluate for the analysis. Finally, the conclusions were assessed by validating the assumptions with the evidence, derived from the analysis. The research findings are as follows: 1. The system would help improve project performance. 2. Resistance to implementation may be experienced if the system is implemented. Therefore, resistance to implementation needs to be investigated further and more R&D work is needed in order to advance to the final design and implementation. 3. System may be divided into standalone modules in order to simplify the system and facilitate incremental changes. 4. The QA/QC conceptual approach used by this research needs to be redefined during future R&D to satisfy both owners and contractors. Yin (2009) Case Study Research Design and Methods was used to develop the research approach, design, data collection, and analysis. Markus (1983) Resistance Theory was used during the assumptions definition to predict potential problems to the implementation of web-based project management systems for the dredging industry. Keen (1981) incremental changes and facilitative approach tactics were used as basis to classify solutions, and how to overcome resistance to implementation of the web-based project management system. Davis (1989) Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) was used to assess the solutions needed to overcome the resistances to the implementation of web-base management systems for dredging projects.

Dempster-Shafer for Anomaly Detection

In this paper, we implement an anomaly detection system using the Dempster-Shafer method. Using two standard benchmark problems we show that by combining multiple signals it is possible to achieve better results than by using a single signal. We further show that by applying this approach to a real-world email dataset the algorithm works for email worm detection. Dempster-Shafer can be a promising method for anomaly detection problems with multiple features (data sources), and two or more classes.

Experimenting with Innate Immunity

libtissue is a software system for implementing and testing AIS algorithms on real-world computer security problems. AIS algorithms are implemented as a collection of cells, antigen and signals interacting within a tissue compartment. Input data to the tissue comes in the form of realtime events generated by sensors monitoring a system under surveillance, and cells are actively able to affect the monitored system through response mechanisms. libtissue is being used by researchers on a project at the University of Nottingham to explore the application of a range of immune-inspired algorithms to problems in intrusion detection. This talk describes the architecture and design of libtissue, along with the implementation of a simple algorithm and its application to a computer security problem.

Estudo do genoma do vírus causador da mionecrose infecciosa em camarões e desenvolvimento de métodos para detecção de polimorfismos

Shrimp farming is one of the activities that contribute most to the growth of global aquaculture. However, this business has undergone significant economic losses due to the onset of viral diseases such as Infectious Myonecrosis (IMN). The IMN is already widespread throughout Northeastern Brazil and affects other countries such as Indonesia, Thailand and China. The main symptom of disease is myonecrosis, which consists of necrosis of striated muscles of the abdomen and cephalothorax of shrimp. The IMN is caused by infectious myonecrosis virus (IMNV), a non-enveloped virus which has protrusions along its capsid. The viral genome consists of a single molecule of double-stranded RNA and has two Open Reading Frames (ORFs). The ORF1 encodes the major capsid protein (MCP) and a potential RNA binding protein (RBP). ORF2 encodes a probable RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) and classifies IMNV in Totiviridae family. Thus, the objective of this research was study the IMNV complete genome and encoded proteins in order to develop a system differentiate virus isolates based on polymorphisms presence. The phylogenetic relationship among some totivirus was investigated and showed a new group to IMNV within Totiviridae family. Two new genomes were sequenced, analyzed and compared to two other genomes already deposited in GenBank. The new genomes were more similar to each other than those already described. Conserved and variable regions of the genome were identified through similarity graphs and alignments using the four IMNV sequences. This analyze allowed mapping of polymorphic sites and revealed that the most variable region of the genome is in the first half of ORF1, which coincides with the regions that possibly encode the viral protrusion, while the most stable regions of the genome were found in conserved domains of proteins that interact with RNA. Moreover, secondary structures were predicted for all proteins using various softwares and protein structural models were calculated using threading and ab initio modeling approaches. From these analyses was possible to observe that the IMNV proteins have motifs and shapes similar to proteins of other totiviruses and new possible protein functions have been proposed. The genome and proteins study was essential for development of a PCR-based detection system able to discriminate the four IMNV isolates based on the presence of polymorphic sites

Development of a new analytical approach based on cellulose membrane and chelator for differentiation of labile and inert metal species in aquatic systems

A new procedure was developed in this study, based on a system equipped with a cellulose membrane and a tetraethylenepentamine hexaacetate chelator (MD-TEPHA) for in situ characterization of the lability of metal species in aquatic systems. To this end, the DM-TEPHA system was prepared by adding TEPHA chelator to cellulose bags pre-purified with 1.0 mol L-1 of HCl and NaOH solutions. After the MD-TEPHA system was sealed, it was examined in the laboratory to evaluate the influence of complexation time (0-24 h), pH (3.0, 4.0, 5.0, 6.0 and 7.0), metal ions (Cu, Cd, Fe, Mn and Ni) and concentration of organic matter (15, 30 and 60 mg L-1) on the relative lability of metal species by TEPHA chelator. The results showed that Fe and Cu metals were complexed more slowly by TEPHA chelator in the MD-TEPHA system than were Cd, Ni and Mn in all pH used. It was also found that the pH strongly influences the process of metal complexation by the MD-TEPHA system. At all the pH levels, Cd, Mn and Ni showed greater complexation with TEPHA chelator (recovery of about 95-75%) than did Cu and Fe metals. Time also affects the lability of metal species complexed by aquatic humic substances (AHS); while Cd, Ni and Mn showed a faster kinetics, reaching equilibrium after about 100 min, and Cu and Fe approached equilibrium after 400 min. Increasing the AHS concentration decreases the lability of metal species by shifting the equilibrium to AHS-metal complexes. Our results indicate that the system under study offers an interesting alternative that can be applied to in situ experiments for differentiation of labile and inert metal species in aquatic systems. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.