东北四海龙湾玛珥湖啊1500年来长链烯酮不饱和度温标与古水温重建

The alkenone unsaturation paleothermometer is an important proxy to reconstruct water temperature, and is widely applied to reconstructing sea surface temperature in most oceanographic settings. Recent research indicates that long chain alkenone is preserved in lacustrine sediments, and the alkenone unsaturation has good relationship with mean annual temperature in studied lakes. Thus, the alkenone unsaturation could be used as a temperature proxy to reconstruct temperature in limnic systems. In this study, we analyzed long chain alkenone from the varved sediments in Lake Sihailongwan, northeastern China. Based on the counting varves, we established time scale during the past 1500 years. The distribution pattern in the sediment is similar with the previous study in lacustrine environment. The ratio of C37:4 methyl ketone to the sum of C37 alkenones is high. Based on the published temperature- alkenone unsaturation equation, we reconstructed the mean air temperature and July water temperature during the past 1500 years. Three major cold periods are in AD560-950, AD 1540-1600 and AD1800-1920. Three major warm periods are AD450-550, AD 950-1400 and AD 1600-1800. The Medieval Warm Period was a significant warm periods. However, the traditional “Little Ice Age” was not a persistent cold period, and interrupted by relative longer warm period. The temperature variations in this study show a general similar pattern with the summer temperature reconstruction from Shihua Cave and the winter temperature from historical documents. The temperature variations from long chain alknone record show a good agreement with solar activity (10Be data from ice core and sunspot number from tree rings). It may suggest that solar activity is most important forcing in the studied area.

陇西盆地晚第三纪风尘沉积的地层学研究

In Asia, the significant environment changes in Cenozoic include: uplift of Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, formation Asian monsoon system, Aridification in Central Asia. One of major advances in recent studies of eolian deposit on the Loess Plateau is the verification of the eolian origin for the Late Tertiary Hipparion Red-Earth (also called red-Clay) underlying the Quaternary loess. Thus, the Late Tertiary eolian deposit, which has been proven a nearly continuous terrestrial record and sensitive to climate change, provides us an important archive to understand these above Cenozoic environment events. The deposit in eastern Loess Plateau has been extensively studied, while the property and age of deposit underlying the Quaternary loess in western plateau remains unclear. In this paper, detail investigations were made on the Sedimentology, geochemistry of Longxi section, a typical section in western Loess Plateau, to address its origin, and on micromammalian fossils and magnetostratigraphy to address its age. The main conclusions are presented as following: 1. The sedimentological and geochemical properties in Longxi section are highly similar to typical Quaternary eolian deposit in Loess Plateau. Nearly 100 paleosols are recognized in the field, and the grain size are very fine with the median grain size centered at 4～7μm. There is a good agreement of both major and trace element compositions between Longxi deposit and the Quaternary Loess. The REE distribution patterns of Longxi deposit and the Quaternary loess are remarkably similar in shape, with enrichment LREE and fairly flat HREE profiles and clear negative Eu anomaly. The mangnetic minerals in Longxi deposit are mainly magnetite, hematite and maghematite, which are similar to those of the Hipparion Red-Earth and Quaternary Loess. The major difference among them is that the samples from Longxi section contain more hematite. The characteristics of anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) in Longxi deposit is highly consistent with that of Quaternary loess, while values of the major AMS parameters, e.g. anisotropy degree, magnetic foliation and lineation, are significantly lower than those of fluvial and lake deposits. These evidences indicate an eolian origin for the sediment. 2. An investigation of micromammalian fossils was firstly carried out for determining the approximate age of the sequence because of lack of materials for accurate isotope dating. Three fossil assemblages were obtained which indicate a chronological range from the Middle Miocene to Late Miocene. The magnetostratigraphical study suggests that it is a near continuous terrestrial record for the period from 13.23 to 6.23 MaB.P. The obtained chronology is highly consistent with fossils assemblages. This section is the oldest eolian deposit presently known in Loess Plateau. 3. The magnetic susceptibly value is high in paleosols than in surrounded weak-weathered layers, which suggests that it may be a climate index on orbital time scale. While it cannot be used as a proxy to address the long-term, change of climate on tectonic time scale, as content of the magnetic minerals is highly variable in different parts of the section. 4. The appearance of Middle Miocene eolian deposit in the Loess Plateau marks the strengthening of aridification of Central Asia. The high degree of similarity between the geochemical properties of Longxi eolian deposit, Hipparion Red-Earth and Quaternary loess a suggests that a rather similar source provenance. The dust accumulation rate (DAR) of Longxi section, which is widely used as a proxy to document the aridity in source areas in marine and terrestrial record studies, recorded the aridity condition in northwestern China over a period from Middle Miocene to Late Miocene. The DAR of the section shows that the continent aridity remains moderate and relative stable over that period.

Is China's fifth-largest inland lake to dry-up? Incorporated hydrological and satellite-based methods for forecasting Hulun Lake water levels

Hulun Lake, China’s fifth-largest inland lake, experienced severe declines in water level in the period of 2000-2010. This has prompted concerns whether the lake is drying up gradually. A multi-million US dollar engineering project to construct a water channel to transfer part of the river flow from a nearby river to maintain the water level was completed in August 2010. This study aimed to advance the understanding of the key processes controlling the lake water level variation over the last five decades, as well as investigate the impact of the river transfer engineering project on the water level. A water balance model was developed to investigate the lake water level variations over the last five decades, using hydrological and climatic data as well as satellite-based measurements and results from land surface modelling. The investigation reveals that the severe reduction of river discharge (- 364±64 mm/yr, ~70% of the five-decade average) into the lake was the key factor behind the decline of the lake water level between 2000 and 2010. The decline of river discharge was due to the reduction of total runoff from the lake watershed. This was a result of the reduction of soil moisture due to the decrease of precipitation (-49±45 mm/yr) over this period. The water budget calculation suggests that the groundwater component from the surrounding lake area as well as surface run off from the un-gauged area surrounding the lake contributed ~ net 210 Mm3/yr (equivalent to ~ 100 mm/yr) water inflows into the lake. The results also show that the water diversion project did prevent a further water level decline of over 0.5 m by the end of 2012. Overall, the monthly water balance model gave an excellent prediction of the lake water level fluctuation over the last five decades and can be a useful tool to manage lake water resources in the future.

Analysis of institutional arrangements and common pool resources governance: the case of Lake Tana sub-basin, Ethiopia

Although Common Pool Resources (CPRs) make up a significant share of total income for rural households in Ethiopia and elsewhere in developing world, limited access to these resources and environmental degradation threaten local livelihoods. As a result, the issues of management, governance of CPRs and how to prevent their over-exploitation are of great importance for development policy. This study examines the current state and dynamics of CPRs and overall resource governance system of the Lake Tana sub-basin. This research employed the modified form of Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework. The framework integrates the concept of Socio-Ecological Systems (SES) and Interactive Governance (IG) perspectives where social actors, institutions, the politico-economic context, discourses and ecological features across governance and government levels were considered. It has been observed that overexploitation, degradation and encroachment of CPRs have increased dramatically and this threatens the sustainability of Lake Tana ecosystem. The stakeholder analysis result reveals that there are multiple stakeholders with diverse interest in and power over CPRs. The analysis of institutional arrangements reveals that the existing formal rules and regulations governing access to and control over CPRs could not be implemented and were not effective to legally bind and govern CPR user’s behavior at the operational level. The study also shows that a top-down and non-participatory policy formulation, law and decision making process overlooks the local contexts (local knowledge and informal institutions). The outcomes of examining the participation of local resource users, as an alternative to a centralized, command-and-control, and hierarchical approach to resource management and governance, have called for a fundamental shift in CPR use, management and governance to facilitate the participation of stakeholders in decision making. Therefore, establishing a multi-level stakeholder governance system as an institutional structure and process is necessary to sustain stakeholder participation in decision-making regarding CPR use, management and governance.

ITSM ProcessGuide – a longitudinal and multi-method field study for real-world DSR artifact evaluation

Process guidance supports users to increase their process model understanding, process execution effectiveness as well as efficiency, and process compliance performance. This paper presents a research in progress encompassing our ongoing DSR project on Process Guidance Systems and a field evaluation of the resulting artifact in cooperation with a company. Building on three theory-grounded design principles, a Process Guidance System artifact for the company’s IT service ticketing process is developed, deployed and used. Fol-lowing a multi-method approach, we plan to evaluate the artifact in a longitudinal field study. Thereby, we will not only gather self-reported but also real usage data. This article describes the development of the artifact and discusses an innovative evaluation approach.

The prognosis of incurable cachectic cancer patients on home parenteral nutrition: A multi-centre observational study with prospective follow-up of 414 patients

Background: The role of home parenteral nutrition (HPN) in incurable cachectic cancer patients unable to eat is extremely controversial. The aim of this study is to analyse which factors can influence the outcome. Patients and methods: We studied prospectively 414 incurable cachectic (sub)obstructed cancer patients receiving HPN and analysed the association between patient or clinical characteristics and surviving status. Results: Median weight loss, versus pre-disease and last 6-month period, was 24% and 16%, respectively. Median body mass index was 19.5, median KPS was 60, median life expectancy was 3 months. Mean/median survival was 4.7/3.0 months; 50.0% and 22.9% of patients survived 3 and 6 months, respectively. At the multivariable analysis, the variables significantly associated with 3- and 6-month survival were Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) and KPS, and GPS, KPS and tumour spread, respectively. By the aggregation of the significant variables, it was possible to dissect several classes of patients with different survival probabilities. Conclusions: The outcome of cachectic incurable cancer patients on HPN is not homogeneous. It is possible to identify groups of patients with a ≥6-month survival (possibly longer than that allowed in starvation). The indications for HPN can be modulated on these clinical/biochemical indices. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved.