968 resultados para mortality probability prediction


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Streptococcus pneumoniae remains an important cause of bacteremia worldwide. Last years, a decrease of S. pneumoniae penicillin-resistant isolates has been observed. The objective of this study was to describe the episodes of bacteremia due to S. pneumoniae during a period of 11 years. Epidemiological and clinical data, serotypes causing bacteremia, antibiotic susceptibility and prognosis factors were studied. Over a period of 11 years, all the episodes of S. pneumoniae bacteremia were analysed. Their clinical and microbiological features were recorded. Statistical analysis was carried out to determine risk factors for pneumococcal bacteremia and predictors of fatal outcome. Finally, 67 S. pneumoniae bacteremia episodes were included in this study. The majority of cases were produced in white men in the middle age of their life. The main predisposing factors observed were smoking, antimicrobial and/or corticosteroids administration, chronic pulmonary obstructive disease and HIV infection, and the most common source of bacteremia was the low respiratory tract. The main serotypes found were 19A, 1, 14 and 7F. Seventy-seven percent of these isolates were penicillin-susceptible, and the mortality in this serie was really low. Statistical significance was observed between age, sex and race factors and the presence of bacteremia, and there was relationship between the patient’s condition and the outcome. In our study, S. pneumoniae bacteremia is mainly from community-acquired origin mainly caused in men in the median age of the life. 40% of bacteremias were caused by serotypes 19A, 1, 7F and 14. During the period of study the incidence of bacteremia was stable and the mortality rate was very low.

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Objective: Cardiac Troponin-I (cTnI) is a well-recognized early postoperative marker for myocardial damage in adults and children after heart surgery. The present study was undertaken to evaluate whether the integrated value (area under the curve(AUC)) of postoperative cTnI is a better mode to predict long-term outcome than post operative cTnI maximum value, after surgery for congenital heart defects (CHD). Methods: retrospective cohort study. 279 patients (mean age 4.6 years; range 0-17 years-old, 185 males) with congenital heart defect repair on cardiopulmonary by-pass were retrieved from our database including postoperative cTnI values. Maximal post operative cTnI value, post operative cTnI AUC value at 48h and total post operative cTnI AUC value were calculated and then correlated with duration of intubation, duration of ICU stay and mortality. Results: the mean duration of mechanical ventilation was 5.1+/-7.2 days and mean duration of ICU stay was 11.0+/- 13.3 days,11 patients (3.9%) died in post operative period. When comparing survivor and deceased groups, there was a significant difference in the mean value for max cTnI (16.7+/- 21.8 vs 59.2+/-41.4 mcg/l, p+0.0001), 48h AUC cTnI (82.0+/-110.7 vs 268.8+/-497.7 mcg/l, p+0.0001) and total AUC cTnI (623.8+/-1216.7 vs 2564+/-2826.0, p+0.0001). Analyses for duration of mechanical ventilation and duration of ICU stay by linear regression demonstrated a better correlation for 48h AUC cTnI (ventilation time r+0.82, p+0.0001 and ICU stay r+0.74, p+0.0001) then total AUC cTnI (ventilation time r+0.65, p+0.0001 and ICU stay r+0.60, p+0.0001) and max cTnI (ventilation time r+0.64, p+0.0001 and ICU stay r+0.60, p+0.0001). Conclusion: Cardiac Troponin I is a specific and sensitive marker of myocardial injury after congenital heart surgery and it may predict early in-hospital outcomes. Integration of post operative value of cTnI by calculation of AUC improves prediction of early in-hospital outcomes. It probably takes into account, not only the initial surgical procedure, but probably also incorporates the occurrence of hypoxic-ischemic phenomena in the post-operative period.

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Rapport de synthèse : Objectifs : évaluer la survie intra-hospitalière des patients présentant un infarctus du myocarde avec sus-décalage du segment ST admis dans les hôpitaux suisses entre 2000 et 2007, et identifier les paramètres prédictifs de mortalité intra-hospitalière et d'événements cardio-vasculaires majeurs (infarctus, réinfarctus, attaque cérébrale). Méthode : utilisation des données du registre national suisse AMIS Plus (Acute Myocardial lnfarction and Unstable Angina in Switzerland). Tous les patients admis pour un infarctus du myocarde avec sus-décalage du segment ST ou bloc de branche gauche nouveau dans un hôpital suisse participant au registre entre janvier 2000 et décembre 2007 ont été inclus. Résultats: nous avons étudié 12 026 patients présentant un infarctus du myocarde avec sus-décalage du segment ST ou bloc de branche gauche nouveau admis dans 54 hôpitaux suisses différents. L'âge moyen est de 64+-13 ans et 73% des patients inclus sont des hommes. L'incidence de mortalité intra-hospitalière est de 7.6% en 2000 et de 6% en 2007. Le taux de réinfarctus diminue de 3.7% en 2000 à 0.9% en 2007. L'utilisation de médicaments thrombolytiques chute de 40.2% à 2% entre 2000 et 2007. Les paramètres prédictifs cliniques de mortalité sont : un âge> 65-ans, une classe Killips Ill ou IV, un diabète et un infarctus du myocarde avec onde Q (au moment de la présentation). Les patients traités par revascularisation coronarienne percutanée ont un taux inférieur de mortalité et de réinfarctus (3.9% versus 11.2% et 1.1% versus 3.1%, respectivement, p<0.001) sur la période de temps étudiée. Le nombre de patients traités par revascularisation coronarienne percutanée augmente de 43% en 2000 à 85% en 2007. Les patients admis dans les hôpitaux bénéficiant d'une salle de cathétérisme cardiaque ont un taux de mortalité plus bas que les patients hopitalisés dans les centres sans salle de cathétérisme cardiaque. Mais les caractéristiques démographiques de ces deux populations sont très différentes. La mortalité intra-hospitalière ainsi que le taux de réinfarctus diminuent significativement au cours y de la période étudiée, parallèlement à l'augmentation de |'utilisation de la revascularisation coronarienne percutanée. La revascularisation coronarienne percutanée est le paramètre prédictif de survie le plus important. Conclusion: la mortalité intra-hospitalière et le taux de réinfarctus du myocarde ont diminué de manière significative chez les patients souffrant d'un infarctus du myocarde avec sus-décalage du segment ST au cours de ces sept dernières années, parallèlement à l'augmentation significative de la revascularisation coronarienne percutanée en plus de la thérapie médicamenteuse. La survie n'est È pas liée au lieu d'hospitalisation mais à l'accès à une revascularisation coronarienne percutanée.

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BACKGROUNDS AUDIPOC is a nationwide clinical audit that describes the characteristics, interventions and outcomes of patients admitted to Spanish hospitals because of an exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ECOPD), assessing the compliance of these parameters with current international guidelines. The present study describes hospital resources, hospital factors related to case recruitment variability, patients' characteristics, and adherence to guidelines. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS An organisational database was completed by all participant hospitals recording resources and organisation. Over an 8-week period 11,564 consecutive ECOPD admissions to 129 Spanish hospitals covering 70% of the Spanish population were prospectively identified. At hospital discharge, 5,178 patients (45% of eligible) were finally included, and thus constituted the audited population. Audited patients were reassessed 90 days after admission for survival and readmission rates. A wide variability was observed in relation to most variables, hospital adherence to guidelines, and readmissions and death. Median inpatient mortality was 5% (across-hospital range 0-35%). Among discharged patients, 37% required readmission (0-62%) and 6.5% died (0-35%). The overall mortality rate was 11.6% (0-50%). Hospital size and complexity and aspects related to hospital COPD awareness were significantly associated with case recruitment. Clinical management most often complied with diagnosis and treatment recommendations but rarely (<50%) addressed guidance on healthy life-styles. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE The AUDIPOC study highlights the large across-hospital variability in resources and organization of hospitals, patient characteristics, process of care, and outcomes. The study also identifies resources and organizational characteristics associated with the admission of COPD cases, as well as aspects of daily clinical care amenable to improvement.

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Protein C (PC) de ciency is prevalent in severe sepsis, studies showing that more than 80% of patients with severe sepsis have a baseline PC level below the lower limit of normal [1,2]. The aim of the study was to relate the anticoagulation activity evaluated by PC, with clinical parameters and 28-day mortality.

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Measurement of biomarkers is a potential approach to early assessment and prediction of mortality in septic patients. The purpose of this study was to ascertain the prognostic value of pro-adrenomedullin (pADM), measured in all patients admitted to the ICU of our hospital with a diagnosis of severe sepsis or septic shock during 1 year.

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The evaluation of sepsis severity is complicated by the highly variable and nonspecific nature of clinical signs and symptoms. We studied routinely used biomarkers together with clinical parameters to compare their prognostic value for severe sepsis and evaluate their usefulness.

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The interleukin (IL)-2R alpha chain (CD25) is expressed on regulatory T cells (Treg), which constitute more than 85% of the CD25+ T cell population in a naïve mouse. CD25 is also expressed on effector T cells in mice suffering from an acute infection by the obligate intracellular protozoan parasite, Toxoplasma gondii. Lethal toxoplasmosis is accompanied by a significant loss of Treg in mice naturally susceptible to toxoplasmosis. The present study was done to explore the role of Treg cells using an anti-CD25 antibody-mediated depletion in mice naturally resistant to toxoplasmosis. Although a significant decrease in the percentage of Treg cells was observed following anti-CD25 monoclonal antibody injections, the depletion of CD25+ cells during acute toxoplasmosis did not significantly increase the mortality of Swiss OF1 mice and no significant difference was observed in the brain parasitic load between the mice in the depleted-infected and isotype-infected groups. We found no significant difference between the titres of total IgG in the sera of the mice from the two groups in the chronic phase. However, CD25+ cells depletion was followed by significantly higher levels of IL-12 in the serum of depleted mice than in that of mice injected with the isotype control antibody.

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BACKGROUND: From most recent available data, we projected cancer mortality statistics for 2014, for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Specific attention was given to pancreatic cancer, the only major neoplasm showing unfavorable trends in both sexes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2014 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: In the EU in 2014, 1,323,600 deaths from cancer are predicted (742,500 men and 581,100 women), corresponding to standardized death rates of 138.1/100,000 men and 84.7/100,000 women, falling by 7% and 5%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate cancer) are lower than in 2009, falling by 8%, 4% and 10%, respectively. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favorable trends (-9% and -7%), but female lung cancer rates are predicted to rise 8%. Pancreatic cancer is the only neoplasm with a negative outlook in both sexes. Only in the young (25-49 years), EU trends become more favorable in men, while women keep registering slight predicted rises. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer mortality predictions for 2014 confirm the overall favorable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 20% in women, and the avoidance of over 250,000 deaths in 2014 compared with the peak rate. Notable exceptions are female lung cancer and pancreatic cancer in both sexes.

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BACKGROUND: The Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index (OBRI) and the Kuijer, RIETE and Kearon scores are clinical prognostic scores for bleeding in patients receiving oral anticoagulants for venous thromboembolism (VTE). We prospectively compared the performance of these scores in elderly patients with VTE. METHODS: In a prospective multicenter Swiss cohort study, we studied 663 patients aged ≥ 65 years with acute VTE. The outcome was a first major bleeding at 90 days. We classified patients into three categories of bleeding risk (low, intermediate and high) according to each score and dichotomized patients as high vs. low or intermediate risk. We calculated the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, positive predictive values and likelihood ratios for each score. RESULTS: Overall, 28 out of 663 patients (4.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.8-6.0%) had a first major bleeding within 90 days. According to different scores, the rate of major bleeding varied from 1.9% to 2.1% in low-risk, from 4.2% to 5.0% in intermediate-risk and from 3.1% to 6.6% in high-risk patients. The discriminative power of the scores was poor to moderate, with areas under the ROC curve ranging from 0.49 to 0.60 (P = 0.21). The positive predictive values and positive likelihood ratios were low and varied from 3.1% to 6.6% and from 0.72 to 1.59, respectively. CONCLUSION: In elderly patients with VTE, existing bleeding risk scores do not have sufficient accuracy and power to discriminate between patients with VTE who are at a high risk of short-term major bleeding and those who are not.

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Triatoma infestans is the main vector of Trypanosoma cruzi, the aetiological agent of Chagas disease in the Gran Chaco region of South America. As a frequent blood meal source for triatomine bugs, domestic goats play a key role in the eco-epidemiology of Chagas disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate the mortality and blood intake of T. infestans fed on goats that had been treated with different doses of pour-on insecticide. Third-instar nymphs were fed on goats that had been treated with 0 cc, 5 cc, 10 cc or 15 cc of a pour-on formulation of cypermethrin. The exposure of T. infestans to animals treated at different post-application intervals revealed a residual activity of the insecticide. The mortality rate in the treated groups was higher than in the control groups until 30 days post-insecticide application (p = 0.03), except in the group treated with 5 cc, in which no mortality was detected after seven days of insecticide application. Rainfall affected the triatomicide effect, reducing the time of residual activity. The cypermethrin pour-on treatment decreased the blood intake of T. infestans. Thirty days after the cypermethrin application, nymph mortality was 16% (± 13) with both doses (10 cc and 15 cc). The 15 cc dose did not result in higher insect mortality or increased persistence compared to the 10 cc dose.

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Background & aims: Malnutrition prevalence is unknown among elderly patients with diabetes mellitus. Our objectives were to determine malnutrition prevalence in elderly in patients with diabetes, and to describe their impact on prognosis. Methods: An observational multicenter study was conducted in 35 Spanish hospitals. Malnutrition was assessed with the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) tool. Patients were followed until discharge. Results: 1,090 subjects were included (78 ± 7.1 years; 50% males). 39.1% had risk of malnutrition, and 21.2% malnutrition. A 15.5% of the malnourished subjects and 31.9 % of those at risk had a BMI =?30 kg/m2. In multivariate analysis, female gender (OR = 1.38; 95% CI: 1.19- 1.11), age (OR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.02-1.06) and presence of diabetic complications (OR = 1.97; 95% CI: 1.52-2.56) were associated with malnutrition. Length of stay (LOS) was longer in at-risk and malnourished patients than in well-nourished (12.7 ± 9.9 and 15.7 ± 12.8 days vs 10.7 ± 9.9 days; p < 0.0001). After adjustment by age and gender, MNA score (OR = 0.895; 95% CI 0.814-0.985) and albumin (OR = 0.441; 95% CI 0.212-0.915) were associated with mortality. MNA score was associated with the probability of home discharge (OR = 1.150; 95% CI 1.084-1.219). Conclusion: A high prevalence of malnutrition among elderly in patients with diabetes was observed, regardless of BMI. Malnutrition, albumin, and MNA score were related to LOS, mortality and home discharge.

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BACKGROUND Recently, some US cohorts have shown a moderate association between red and processed meat consumption and mortality supporting the results of previous studies among vegetarians. The aim of this study was to examine the association of red meat, processed meat, and poultry consumption with the risk of early death in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). METHODS Included in the analysis were 448,568 men and women without prevalent cancer, stroke, or myocardial infarction, and with complete information on diet, smoking, physical activity and body mass index, who were between 35 and 69 years old at baseline. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the association of meat consumption with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS As of June 2009, 26,344 deaths were observed. After multivariate adjustment, a high consumption of red meat was related to higher all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.28, 160+ versus 10 to 19.9 g/day), and the association was stronger for processed meat (HR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.66, 160+ versus 10 to 19.9 g/day). After correction for measurement error, higher all-cause mortality remained significant only for processed meat (HR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.25, per 50 g/d). We estimated that 3.3% (95% CI 1.5% to 5.0%) of deaths could be prevented if all participants had a processed meat consumption of less than 20 g/day. Significant associations with processed meat intake were observed for cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and 'other causes of death'. The consumption of poultry was not related to all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS The results of our analysis support a moderate positive association between processed meat consumption and mortality, in particular due to cardiovascular diseases, but also to cancer.

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BACKGROUND Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have a modified clinical presentation of venous thromboembolism (VTE) but also a worse prognosis than non-COPD patients with VTE. As it may induce therapeutic modifications, we evaluated the influence of the initial VTE presentation on the 3-month outcomes in COPD patients. METHODS COPD patients included in the on-going world-wide RIETE Registry were studied. The rate of pulmonary embolism (PE), major bleeding and death during the first 3 months in COPD patients were compared according to their initial clinical presentation (acute PE or deep vein thrombosis (DVT)). RESULTS Of the 4036 COPD patients included, 2452 (61%; 95% CI: 59.2-62.3) initially presented with PE. PE as the first VTE recurrence occurred in 116 patients, major bleeding in 101 patients and mortality in 443 patients (Fatal PE: first cause of death). Multivariate analysis confirmed that presenting with PE was associated with higher risk of VTE recurrence as PE (OR, 2.04; 95% CI: 1.11-3.72) and higher risk of fatal PE (OR, 7.77; 95% CI: 2.92-15.7). CONCLUSIONS COPD patients presenting with PE have an increased risk for PE recurrences and fatal PE compared with those presenting with DVT alone. More efficient therapy is needed in this subtype of patients.

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SUMMARY: BMD and clinical risk factors predict hip and other osteoporotic fractures. The combination of clinical risk factors and BMD provide higher specificity and sensitivity than either alone. INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESES: To develop a risk assessment tool based on clinical risk factors (CRFs) with and without BMD. METHODS: Nine population-based studies were studied in which BMD and CRFs were documented at baseline. Poisson regression models were developed for hip fracture and other osteoporotic fractures, with and without hip BMD. Fracture risk was expressed as gradient of risk (GR, risk ratio/SD change in risk score). RESULTS: CRFs alone predicted hip fracture with a GR of 2.1/SD at the age of 50 years and decreased with age. The use of BMD alone provided a higher GR (3.7/SD), and was improved further with the combined use of CRFs and BMD (4.2/SD). For other osteoporotic fractures, the GRs were lower than for hip fracture. The GR with CRFs alone was 1.4/SD at the age of 50 years, similar to that provided by BMD (GR = 1.4/SD) and was not markedly increased by the combination (GR = 1.4/SD). The performance characteristics of clinical risk factors with and without BMD were validated in eleven independent population-based cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The models developed provide the basis for the integrated use of validated clinical risk factors in men and women to aid in fracture risk prediction.