Some theoretical and methodological considerations for the development of a critical competences model (CCM): an operant approach

This paper develops some theoretical and methodological considerations for the development of a critical competence model (CCM). The model is defined as a set of skills and knowledge functionally organized allowing measurable results with positive consequences for the strategic business objectives. The theoretical approaches of classical model of competences, the contemporary model of competencies and human competencies model were revised for the proposal development. implementation of the model includes 5 steps: 1) conducting a job analysis considering which dimensions or facets are subject to revision, 2) identify people with the opposite performance (the higher performance and lower performance); 3) identify critical incidents most relevant to the job position, 4) develop behavioral expectation scales (bes) and 5) validate BES obtained for experts in the field. As a final consideration, is determined that the competence models require accurate measurement. Approaches considering excessive theoreticism may cause the issue of competence become a fashion business with low or minimal impact, affecting its validity, reliability and deployment in organizations.

Estado situacional de los modelos basados en agentes y su impacto en la investigación organizacional

En un mundo hiperconectado, dinámico y cargado de incertidumbre como el actual, los métodos y modelos analíticos convencionales están mostrando sus limitaciones. Las organizaciones requieren, por tanto, herramientas útiles que empleen tecnología de información y modelos de simulación computacional como mecanismos para la toma de decisiones y la resolución de problemas. Una de las más recientes, potentes y prometedoras es el modelamiento y la simulación basados en agentes (MSBA). Muchas organizaciones, incluidas empresas consultoras, emplean esta técnica para comprender fenómenos, hacer evaluación de estrategias y resolver problemas de diversa índole. Pese a ello, no existe (hasta donde conocemos) un estado situacional acerca del MSBA y su aplicación a la investigación organizacional. Cabe anotar, además, que por su novedad no es un tema suficientemente difundido y trabajado en Latinoamérica. En consecuencia, este proyecto pretende elaborar un estado situacional sobre el MSBA y su impacto sobre la investigación organizacional.

Introspection on control-grounded capabilities. An agent inspired approach for control

Introspecció sobre la dinàmica dels agents té un important impacte en decisions individuals i cooperatives en entorns multi-agent. Introspecció, una habilitat cognitiva provinent de la metàfora "agent", permet que els agents siguin conscients de les seves capacitats per a realitzar correctament les tasques. Aquesta introspecció, principalment sobre capacitats relacionades amb la dinàmica, proporciona als agents un raonament adequat per a assolir compromisos segurs en sistemes cooperatius. Per a tal fi, les capacitats garanteixen una representació adequada i explícita de tal dinàmica. Aquest enfocament canvia i millora la manera com els agents poden coordinar-se per a portar a terme tasques i com gestionar les seves interaccions i compromisos en entorns cooperatius. L'enfocament s'ha comprovat en escenaris on la coordinació és important, beneficiosa i necessària. Els resultats i les conclusions són presentats ressaltant els avantatges de la introspecció en la millora del rendiment dels sistemes multi-agent en tasques coordinades i assignació de tasques.

Integrated management of urban wastewater systems: a model-based approach

The main objective pursued in this thesis targets the development and systematization of a methodology that allows addressing management problems in the dynamic operation of Urban Wastewater Systems. The proposed methodology will suggest operational strategies that can improve the overall performance of the system under certain problematic situations through a model-based approach. The proposed methodology has three main steps: The first step includes the characterization and modeling of the case-study, the definition of scenarios, the evaluation criteria and the operational settings that can be manipulated to improve the system’s performance. In the second step, Monte Carlo simulations are launched to evaluate how the system performs for a wide range of operational settings combinations, and a global sensitivity analysis is conducted to rank the most influential operational settings. Finally, the third step consists on a screening methodology applying a multi-criteria analysis to select the best combinations of operational settings.

Improvement of strategies for the management of fire blight (Erwinia amylovora). Evaluation and optimization of physical and chemical control methods, and use of decision support systems

El foc bacterià és una malaltia que afecta a plantes de la família de la rosàcies, causada pel bacteri Erwinia amylovora. El seu rang d'hostes inclou arbres fruiters, com la perera, la pomera o el codonyer, i plantes ornamentals de gran interès comercial i econòmic. Actualment, la malaltia s'ha dispersat i es troba àmpliament distribuïda en totes les zones de clima temperat del món. A Espanya, on la malaltia no és endèmica, el foc bacterià es va detectar per primer cop al 1995 al nord del país (Euskadi) i posteriorment, han aparegut varis focus en altres localitzacions, que han estat convenientment eradicats. El control del foc bacterià, és molt poc efectiu en plantes afectades per la malaltia, de manera que es basa en mesures encaminades a evitar la dispersió del patogen, i la introducció de la malaltia en regions no endèmiques. En aquest treball, la termoteràpia ha estat avaluada com a mètode d'eradicació d'E. amylovora de material vegetal de propagació asimptomàtic. S'ha demostrat que la termoteràpia és un mètode viable d'eradicar E. amylovora de material de propagació. Gairebé totes les espècies i varietats de rosàcies mantingudes en condicions d'humitat sobrevivien 7 hores a 45 ºC i més de 3 hores a 50 ºC, mentre que més d'1 hora d'exposició a 50 ºC amb calor seca produïa danys en el material vegetal i reduïa la brotació. Tractaments de 60 min a 45 ºC o 30 min a 50 ºC van ser suficients per reduir la població epífita d'E. amylovora a nivells no detectables (5 x 102 ufc g-1 p.f.) en branques de perera. Els derivats dels fosfonats i el benzotiadiazol són efectius en el control del foc bacterià en perera i pomera, tant en condicions de laboratori, com d'hivernacle i camp. Els inductors de defensa de les plantes redueixen els nivells de malaltia fins al 40-60%. Els intervals de temps mínims per aconseguir el millor control de la malaltia van ser 5 dies pel fosetil-Al, i 7 dies per l'etefon i el benzotiadiazol, i les dosis òptimes pel fosetil-Al i el benzotiadiazol van ser 3.72 g HPO32- L-1 i 150 mg i.a. L-1, respectivament. Es millora l'eficàcia del fosetil-Al i del benzotiadiazol en el control del foc bacterià, quan es combinen amb els antibiòtics a la meitat de la dosi d'aquests últims. Tot i que l'estratègia de barrejar productes és més pràctica i fàcil de dur a terme a camp, que l'estratègia de combinar productes, el millor nivell de control de la malaltia s'aconsegueix amb l'estratègia de combinar productes. Es va analitzar a nivell histològic i ultrastructural l'efecte del benzotiadiazol i dels fosfonats en la interacció Erwinia amylovora-perera. Ni el benzotiadiazol, ni el fosetil-Al, ni l'etefon van induir canvis estructurals en els teixits de perera 7 dies després de la seva aplicació. No obstant, després de la inoculació d'E. amylovora es va observar en plantes tractades amb fosetil-Al i etefon una desorganització estructural cel·lular, mentre que en les plantes tractades amb benzotiadiazol aquestes alteracions tissulars van ser retardades. S'han avaluat dos models (Maryblyt, Cougarblight) en un camp a Espanya afectat per la malaltia, per determinar la precisió de les prediccions. Es van utilitzar dos models per elaborar el mapa de risc, el BRS-Powell combinat i el BIS95 modificat. Els resultats van mostrar dos zones amb elevat i baix risc de la malaltia. Maryblyt i Cougarblight són dos models de fàcil ús, tot i que la seva implementació en programes de maneig de la malaltia requereix que siguin avaluats i validats per un període de temps més llarg i en àrees on la malaltia hi estigui present.

A hybrid approach of knowledge-based reasoning for structural assessment

La idea básica de detección de defectos basada en vibraciones en Monitorización de la Salud Estructural (SHM), es que el defecto altera las propiedades de rigidez, masa o disipación de energía de un sistema, el cual, altera la respuesta dinámica del mismo. Dentro del contexto de reconocimiento de patrones, esta tesis presenta una metodología híbrida de razonamiento para evaluar los defectos en las estructuras, combinando el uso de un modelo de la estructura y/o experimentos previos con el esquema de razonamiento basado en el conocimiento para evaluar si el defecto está presente, su gravedad y su localización. La metodología involucra algunos elementos relacionados con análisis de vibraciones, matemáticas (wavelets, control de procesos estadístico), análisis y procesamiento de señales y/o patrones (razonamiento basado en casos, redes auto-organizativas), estructuras inteligentes y detección de defectos. Las técnicas son validadas numérica y experimentalmente considerando corrosión, pérdida de masa, acumulación de masa e impactos. Las estructuras usadas durante este trabajo son: una estructura tipo cercha voladiza, una viga de aluminio, dos secciones de tubería y una parte del ala de un avión comercial.

Evaluating the century C model using long-term fertilizer trials in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, India

The GEFSOC Project developed a system for estimating soil carbon (C) stocks and changes at the national and sub-national scale. As part of the development of the system, the Century ecosystem model was evaluated for its ability to simulate soil organic C (SOC) changes in environmental conditions in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, India (IGP). Two long-term fertilizer trials (LTFT), with all necessary parameters needed to run Century, were used for this purpose: a jute (Corchorus capsularis L.), rice (Oryza sativa L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) trial at Barrackpore, West Bengal, and a rice-wheat trial at Ludhiana, Punjab. The trials represent two contrasting climates of the IGP, viz. semi-arid, dry with mean annual rainfall (MAR) of < 800 mm and humid with > 1600 turn. Both trials involved several different treatments with different organic and inorganic fertilizer inputs. In general, the model tended to overestimate treatment effects by approximately 15%. At the semi-arid site, modelled data simulated actual data reasonably well for all treatments, with the control and chemical N + farm yard manure showing the best agreement (RMSE = 7). At the humid site, Century performed less well. This could have been due to a range of factors including site history. During the study, Century was calibrated to simulate crop yields for the two sites considered using data from across the Indian IGP. However, further adjustments may improve model performance at these sites and others in the IGP. The availability of more longterm experimental data sets (especially those involving flooded lowland rice and triple cropping systems from the IGP) for testing and validation is critical to the application of the model's predictive capabilities for this area of the Indian sub-continent. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A semi-quantitative approach to deriving a model structure for the uptake of organic chemicals by vegetation

An expert elicitation exercise was undertaken to determine those components and processes that are most important for modeling plant uptake of organic chemicals. The state of our knowledge of these processes was also assessed. This semi-quantitative analysis allowed the construction of an idealized model with seven compartments; soil bulk, soil water, roots, stem, leaves, fruit, and air. Three main areas were identified further research: 1) the uptake of organic chemicals by fruit; 2) the internal transfer of organic chemicals between plant structures (e.g., stem and leaves); and 3) the transfer via the soil-air-plant pathway. Until new data becomes available to quantify these processes, it is proposed that an equilibrium partitioning approach is used between plant components other than fruit or that models consist of both an edible and inedible compartment.

Parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty in a new water quality model, Q(2)

A new dynamic model of water quality, Q(2), has recently been developed, capable of simulating large branched river systems. This paper describes the application of a generalized sensitivity analysis (GSA) to Q(2) for single reaches of the River Thames in southern England. Focusing on the simulation of dissolved oxygen (DO) (since this may be regarded as a proxy for the overall health of a river); the GSA is used to identify key parameters controlling model behavior and provide a probabilistic procedure for model calibration. It is shown that, in the River Thames at least, it is more important to obtain high quality forcing functions than to obtain improved parameter estimates once approximate values have been estimated. Furthermore, there is a need to ensure reasonable simulation of a range of water quality determinands, since a focus only on DO increases predictive uncertainty in the DO simulations. The Q(2) model has been applied here to the River Thames, but it has a broad utility for evaluating other systems in Europe and around the world.

Predictive vegetation mapping in the Mediterranean context: Considerations and methodological issues

The need to map vegetation communities over large areas for nature conservation and to predict the impact of environmental change on vegetation distributions, has stimulated the development of techniques for predictive vegetation mapping. Predictive vegetation studies start with the development of a model relating vegetation units and mapped physical data, followed by the application of that model to a geographic database and over a wide range of spatial scales. This field is particularly important for identifying sites for rare and endangered species and locations of high biodiversity such as many areas of the Mediterranean Basin. The potential of the approach is illustrated with a mapping exercise in the alti-meditterranean zone of Lefka Ori in Crete. The study established the nature of the relationship between vegetation communities and physical data including altitude, slope and geomorphology. In this way the knowledge of community distribution was improved enabling a GIS-based model capable of predicting community distribution to be constructed. The paper describes the development of the spatial model and the methodological problems of predictive mapping for monitoring Mediterranean ecosystems. The paper concludes with a discussion of the role of predictive vegetation mapping and other spatial techniques, such as fuzzy mapping and geostatistics, for improving our understanding of the dynamics of Mediterranean ecosystems and for practical management in a region that is under increasing pressure from human impact.

A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America

This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility Of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well-calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Parana river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3-month lead November-December-January multi-model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management.