Steering without Circe : attending to reinforcing loops in social systems

Relating system dynamics to the broad systems movement, the key notion is that reinforcing loops deserve no less attention than balancing loops. Three specific propositions follow. First, since reinforcing loops arise in surprising places, investigations of complex systems must consider their possible existence and potential impact. Second, because the strength of reinforcing loops can be misinferred - we include an example from the field of servomechanisms - computer simulation can be essential. Be it project management, corporate growth or inventory oscillation, simulation helps to assess consequences of reinforcing loops and options for interventions. Third, in social systems the consequences of reinforcing loops are not inevitable. Examples concerning globalization illustrate how difficult it might be to challenge such assumptions. However, system dynamics and ideas from contemporary social theory help to show that even the most complex social systems are, in principle, subject to human influence. In conclusion, by employing these ideas, by attending to reinforcing as well as balancing loops, system dynamics work can improve the understanding of social systems and illuminate our choices when attempting to steer them.

Commonly used farm disinfectants can select for mutant Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium with decreased susceptibility to biocides and antibiotics without compromising virulence

Objectives: To determine if one passage of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium in the presence of farm disinfectants selected for mutants with decreased susceptibility to disinfectants and/or antibiotics. Methods: Eight Salmonella Typhimurium strains including field isolates and laboratory mutants were exposed to either a tar oil phenol (PFD) disinfectant, an oxidizing compound disinfectant (OXC), an aldehyde based disinfectant (ABD) or a dairy sterilizer disinfectant (based on quaternary ammonium biocide) in agar. The susceptibility of mutants obtained after disinfectant exposure to antibiotics and disinfectants was determined as was the accumulation of norfloxacin. The proteome of SL1344 after exposure to PFD and OXC was analysed using two-dimensional liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. Results: Strains with either acrB or tolC inactivated were more susceptible to most disinfectants than other strains. The majority (3/5) of mutants recovered after disinfectant exposure required statistically significantly longer exposure times to disinfectants than their parent strains to generate a 5 log kill. Small decreases in antibiotic susceptibility were observed but no mutants were multiply antibiotic-resistant (MAR). Notably exposure to ABD decreased susceptibility to ciprofloxacin in some strains. Mutants with increased disinfectant tolerance were able to survive and persist in chicks as well as in parent strains. Analysis of proteomes revealed significantly increased expression of the AcrAB-TolC efflux system after PFD exposure. Conclusions: Data presented demonstrate that efflux pumps are required for intrinsic resistance to some disinfectants and that exposure to disinfectants can induce expression of the AcrAB-TolC efflux system, but that single exposure was insufficient to select for MAR strains.

Epoxide ring opening in a zinc(II) complex in water without any Lewis acid catalyst: formation of only one diastereomer out of 2

The epoxide ring in 5,6-dihydro-5,6-epoxy-1,10-phenanthroline (L) opens up in its reaction with 4-methylaniline and 4-methoxyaniline in water in equimolar proportion at room temperature without any Lewis acid catalyst to give a monohydrate of 6-(4-methyl-phenylamino)-5,6-dihydro-1,10-phenanthrolin-5-ol (L′·H2O) and 6-(4-methoxyphenyl-amino)-5,6-dihydro-1,10-phenanthrolin-5-ol (L″) respectively. Reaction time decreases from 72 to 14 h in boiling water. But the yields become less. Reaction of L with Zn(ClO4)2·6H2O in methanol in 3:1 molar ratio at room temperature affords white [ZnL3](ClO4)2·H2O. The X-ray crystal structure of the acetonitrile solvate [ZnL3](ClO4)2·MeCN has been determined which shows that the metal has a distorted octahedral N6 coordination sphere. [ZnL3](ClO4)2·2H2O reacts with 4-methylaniline and 4-methoxyaniline in boiling water in 1:3 molar proportion in the absence of any Lewis acid catalyst to produce [ZnL′3](ClO4)2·4H2O and [ZnL″3](ClO4)2·H2O, respectively in 1–4 h time in somewhat low yield. In the 1H NMR spectra of [ZnL′3](ClO4)2·4H2O and [ZnL″3](ClO4)2·H2O, only one sharp methyl signal is observed implicating that only one diastereomer out of the 23 possibilities is formed. The same diastereomers are obtained when L′·H2O and L″ are reacted directly with Zn(ClO4)2·6H2O in tetrahydrofuran at room temperature in very good yields. Reactions of L′·H2O and L″ with Ru(phen)2Cl2·2H2O (phen = 1,10-phenanthroline) in equimolar proportion in methanol–water mixture under refluxing condition lead to the isolation of two diastereomers of [Ru(phen)2L′](ClO4)2·2H2O and [Ru(phen)2L″](ClO4)2·2H2O.

Famines without shortages

We present a model that describes features common to many famines: (i) a famine may occur without a substantial decline in aggregate food availability; (ii) famines often have a very uneven impact on different groups of population; and (iii) expectations about future food markets affect current market behaviour and result in starvation for certain groups of population. We consider an exchange economy with two types of agents, food producers and non-food producers. An agent starves if his consumption of food falls below the minimum subsistence level. We show that non-food producers are more vulnerable to starvation than food producers, and may fail to survive even when the aggregate amount of food in the economy is enough to guarantee survival of all agents. In an economy with government procurement and public distribution, we show that the government policy may become unsustainable if the food producers condition their expectations about future public sales on current public stock level.

Surviving without leading: Jacques Chirac

The presidency of Jacques Chirac in France (1995-2007) was scarred by two crushing defeats: the parliamentary elections of 25 May and 1 June 1997, and the referendum on the European Constitution of 29 May 2005. As both were highly personal setbacks, since both votes were taken at Chirac’s initiative they suggest that a dominant presidential position, twice won, was twice squandered owing to a failure of leadership. This chapter argues, firstly, that the weaknesses of the presidency arose chiefly from the three decades of Chirac’s career before the 1995 election – and, secondly, that Chirac’s record of presidential leadership, though limited, is more substantial than these two major failures suggest.

Motion planning of autonomous vehicles in a non-autonomous vehicle environment without speed lanes

Planning is one of the key problems for autonomous vehicles operating in road scenarios. Present planning algorithms operate with the assumption that traffic is organised in predefined speed lanes, which makes it impossible to allow autonomous vehicles in countries with unorganised traffic. Unorganised traffic is though capable of higher traffic bandwidths when constituting vehicles vary in their speed capabilities and sizes. Diverse vehicles in an unorganised exhibit unique driving behaviours which are analysed in this paper by a simulation study. The aim of the work reported here is to create a planning algorithm for mixed traffic consisting of both autonomous and non-autonomous vehicles without any inter-vehicle communication. The awareness (e.g. vision) of every vehicle is restricted to nearby vehicles only and a straight infinite road is assumed for decision making regarding navigation in the presence of multiple vehicles. Exhibited behaviours include obstacle avoidance, overtaking, giving way for vehicles to overtake from behind, vehicle following, adjusting the lateral lane position and so on. A conflict of plans is a major issue which will almost certainly arise in the absence of inter-vehicle communication. Hence each vehicle needs to continuously track other vehicles and rectify plans whenever a collision seems likely. Further it is observed here that driver aggression plays a vital role in overall traffic dynamics, hence this has also been factored in accordingly. This work is hence a step forward towards achieving autonomous vehicles in unorganised traffic, while similar effort would be required for planning problems such as intersections, mergers, diversions and other modules like localisation.

Towards a lawn without grass: the journey of the imperfect lawn and its analogues

In much of the English-speaking world the lawn is the most common of all garden features. For arguably a millennium it has played a significant role in the landscape and during that period it has been inextricably linked with grasses. Nevertheless other plant species have accompanied the grasses and also been used in creating lawns. From medieval wildflowers to Victorian weeds, the plants that challenge the formal concept of the perfect lawn have journeyed with it but have until recently remained only small players within the dominion of grass. By the beginning of the 21st century, with a new environmental ethos permeating the garden, the long journey of the grassy lawn and its plant companions has led to the grass monoculture being heretically rethought: by removing both the monoculture and the grass.

Control without deception

Lying to participants offers an experimenter the enticing prospect of making “others' behaviour” a controlled variable, but is eschewed by experimental economists because it may pollute the pool of subjects. This paper proposes and implements a new experimental design, the Conditional Information Lottery, which offers all the benefits of deception without actually deceiving anyone. The design should be suitable for most economics experiments, and works by a modification of an already standard device, the Random Lottery incentive system. The deceptive scenarios of designs which use deceit are replaced with fictitious scenarios, each of which, from a subject's viewpoint, has a chance of being true. The design is implemented in a sequential play public good experiment prompted by Weimann's (1994) result, from a deceptive design, that subjects are more sensitive to freeriding than cooperation on the part of others. The experiment provides similar results to Weimann's, in that subjects are at least as cooperative when uninformed about others' behaviour as they are if reacting to high contributions. No deception is used and the data cohere well both internally and with other public goods experiments. In addition, simultaneous play is found to be more efficient than sequential play, and subjects contribute less at the end of a sequence than at the start. The results suggest pronounced elements of overconfidence, egoism and (biased) reciprocity in behaviour, which may explain decay in contributions in repeated play designs. The experiment shows there is a workable alternative to deception.

Climate models without pre-industrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion

Episodic explosive volcanic eruptions are a natural part of the climate system but are often omitted from atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) preindustrial spin-up and control experiments. This omission imposes a negative bias on ocean heat uptake in simulations of the historical period. In models of a range of complexity, we find that global-mean sea level rise due to thermal expansion during the last ∼ 150 years is consequently underestimated by 5–30 mm, which is a substantial proportion of the model mean of 50 mm in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 AOGCMs with anthropogenic forcing only, and is therefore important in accounting for 20th century sea level rise. We test and recommend a procedure for removing the bias.

High-level face adaptation without awareness

When a visual stimulus is suppressed from awareness, processing of the suppressed image is necessarily reduced. Although adaptation to simple image properties such as orientation still occurs, adaptation to high-level properties such as face identity is eliminated. Here we show that emotional facial expression continues to be processed even under complete suppression, as indexed by substantial facial expression aftereffects.

Oxytocin increases eye contact during a real-time, naturalistic social interaction in males with and without autism

Autism spectrum conditions (autism) affect ~1% of the population and are characterized by deficits in social communication. Oxytocin has been widely reported to affect social-communicative function and its neural underpinnings. Here we report the first evidence that intranasal oxytocin administration improves a core problem that individuals with autism have in using eye contact appropriately in real-world social settings. A randomized double-blind, placebo-controlled, within-subjects design is used to examine how intranasal administration of 24 IU of oxytocin affects gaze behavior for 32 adult males with autism and 34 controls in a real-time interaction with a researcher. This interactive paradigm bypasses many of the limitations encountered with conventional static or computer-based stimuli. Eye movements are recorded using eye tracking, providing an objective measurement of looking patterns. The measure is shown to be sensitive to the reduced eye contact commonly reported in autism, with the autism group spending less time looking to the eye region of the face than controls. Oxytocin administration selectively enhanced gaze to the eyes in both the autism and control groups (transformed mean eye-fixation difference per second=0.082; 95% CI:0.025–0.14, P=0.006). Within the autism group, oxytocin has the most effect on fixation duration in individuals with impaired levels of eye contact at baseline (Cohen’s d=0.86). These findings demonstrate that the potential benefits of oxytocin in autism extend to a real-time interaction, providing evidence of a therapeutic effect in a key aspect of social communication.

A revenge problem without the concept of truth

The vast majority of putative solutions to the liar paradox face the infamous revenge problem. In recent work, however, Kevin Scharp has extensively developed an exciting and highly novel ‘inconsistency approach’ to the paradox that, he claims, does not face revenge. If Scharp is right, then this represents a significant step forward in our attempts to solve the liar paradox. However, in this paper, I raise a revenge problem that faces Scharp’s inconsistency approach.