947 resultados para method of moments (MoM)
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Bread is consumed worldwide by man, thus contributing to the regular ingestion of certain inorganic species such as chloride. It controls the blood pressure if associated to a sodium intake and may increase the incidence of stomach ulcer. Its routine control should thus be established by means of quick and low cost procedures. This work reports a double- channel flow injection analysis (FIA) system with a new chloride sensor for the analysis of bread. All solutions are prepared in water and necessary ionic strength adjustments are made on-line. The body of the indicating electrode is made from a silver needle of 0.8 mm i.d. with an external layer of silver chloride. These devices were constructed with different lengths. Electrodes of 1.0 to 3.0 cm presented better analytical performance. The calibration curves under optimum conditions displayed Nernstian behaviour, with average slopes of 56 mV decade-1, with sampling rates of 60 samples h-1. The method was applied to analyze several kinds of bread, namely pão de trigo, pão integral, pão de centeio, pão de mistura, broa de milho, pão sem sal, pão meio sal, pão-de-leite, and pão de água. The accuracy and precision of the potentiometric method were ascertained by comparison to a spectrophotometric method of continuous segmented flow. These methods were validated against ion-chromatography procedures.
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OBJECTIVE To propose a method of redistributing ill-defined causes of death (IDCD) based on the investigation of such causes.METHODS In 2010, an evaluation of the results of investigating the causes of death classified as IDCD in accordance with chapter 18 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) by the Mortality Information System was performed. The redistribution coefficients were calculated according to the proportional distribution of ill-defined causes reclassified after investigation in any chapter of the ICD-10, except for chapter 18, and used to redistribute the ill-defined causes not investigated and remaining by sex and age. The IDCD redistribution coefficient was compared with two usual methods of redistribution: a) Total redistribution coefficient, based on the proportional distribution of all the defined causes originally notified and b) Non-external redistribution coefficient, similar to the previous, but excluding external causes.RESULTS Of the 97,314 deaths by ill-defined causes reported in 2010, 30.3% were investigated, and 65.5% of those were reclassified as defined causes after the investigation. Endocrine diseases, mental disorders, and maternal causes had a higher representation among the reclassified ill-defined causes, contrary to infectious diseases, neoplasms, and genitourinary diseases, with higher proportions among the defined causes reported. External causes represented 9.3% of the ill-defined causes reclassified. The correction of mortality rates by the total redistribution coefficient and non-external redistribution coefficient increased the magnitude of the rates by a relatively similar factor for most causes, contrary to the IDCD redistribution coefficient that corrected the different causes of death with differentiated weights.CONCLUSIONS The proportional distribution of causes among the ill-defined causes reclassified after investigation was not similar to the original distribution of defined causes. Therefore, the redistribution of the remaining ill-defined causes based on the investigation allows for more appropriate estimates of the mortality risk due to specific causes.
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La sospita de bacterièmia relacionada a catèter (BRC) necessita la retirada d’aquest, confirmant-se a posteriori només en un 15-25%. La diferencia en el temps de positivització d´ hemocultius (DTP) ha demostrat ser un mètode fiable per el diagnòstic de BRC evitant la retirada del catèter. Amb la intenció de comprovar la utilitat clínica de la DTP, l’hem comparada amb un mètode diagnòstic estàndard. Hem inclòs 133 pacients ingressats a una unitat de cures intensives portadors de catèters venosos centrals. 56 pacients s’han aleatoritzats. No hem trobat diferències significatives en quant a morbi-mortalitat en els 2 grups havent evitat 70% de retirada innecessària de catèters en el grup de DTP.
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The sandfly Phlebotomus perniciosus is the most widespread vector of Leishmania infantum in Spain. Laboratory colonisation represents the most feasible source of information on the biology of these insects, but in conducting any study, the density of individuals in the colony may drop to such an extent that it is sometimes difficult to recover the initial population levels. A new technique was tested for the recovery of sandfly eggs in three different colonies; the recovery rate was studied by comparing the standard method of mass rearing with this new method of colony management. The results demonstrate a mean increase of 18.4% in adult production, a growth in colony productivity that justifies the inclusion of this process in the routine maintenance of any colony of sandflies.
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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: In bladder cancer, conventional white light endoscopic examination of the bladder does not provide adequate information about the presence of "flat" urothelial lesions such as carcinoma in situ. In the present investigation, we examine a new technique for the photodetection of such lesions by the imaging of protoporphyrin IX (PpIX) fluorescence following topical application of 5-aminolevulinic acid (ALA). STUDY DESIGN/MATERIALS AND METHODS: Several hours after bladder instillation of an aqueous solution of ALA in 34 patients, a Krypton ion laser or a filtered Xenon arc-lamp was used to excite PpIX fluorescence. Tissue samples for histological analysis were taken while observing the bladder wall either by means of a video camera, or by direct endoscopic observation. RESULTS: A good correlation was found between the PpIX fluorescence and the histopathological diagnosis. On a total of 215 biopsies, 143 in fluorescent and 72 in nonfluorescent areas, all visible tumors on white light cytoscopy appeared in a bright red fluorescence with the photodetection technique. In addition, this method permitted to discover 47 unsuspected carcinomatous lesions on white light observation, among which 40% were carcinoma in situ. CONCLUSION: PpIX fluorescence induced by instillation into the bladder of 5-ALA is an efficient method of mapping the mucosa in bladder carcinoma.
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Structural equation models are widely used in economic, socialand behavioral studies to analyze linear interrelationships amongvariables, some of which may be unobservable or subject to measurementerror. Alternative estimation methods that exploit different distributionalassumptions are now available. The present paper deals with issues ofasymptotic statistical inferences, such as the evaluation of standarderrors of estimates and chi--square goodness--of--fit statistics,in the general context of mean and covariance structures. The emphasisis on drawing correct statistical inferences regardless of thedistribution of the data and the method of estimation employed. A(distribution--free) consistent estimate of $\Gamma$, the matrix ofasymptotic variances of the vector of sample second--order moments,will be used to compute robust standard errors and a robust chi--squaregoodness--of--fit squares. Simple modifications of the usual estimateof $\Gamma$ will also permit correct inferences in the case of multi--stage complex samples. We will also discuss the conditions under which,regardless of the distribution of the data, one can rely on the usual(non--robust) inferential statistics. Finally, a multivariate regressionmodel with errors--in--variables will be used to illustrate, by meansof simulated data, various theoretical aspects of the paper.
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Peripheral venous cannulation is the preferred method of inserting central venous silastic catheters in premature infants. The standard techniques are placement of the catheter using a breakaway introducer needle or introduction of the catheter through a cannula. In extremely low birth weight infants (<1000 g) successful cannulation is impeded by the small size of the vessels. After repeated attempts, both procedures can be time-consuming and stressful to the infant. We present a modified insertion technique of the standard 2-French silastic catheter with an increased success rate, thus reducing insertion time, stress to the infant, and costs. The method uses the tip of a 20-gauge cannula as dilator/introducer for the 2-French catheter. This tip is inserted into the vessel with a standard 24-gauge cannula. After successful insertion of the dilator/introducer cannula, the standard 2-French catheter can then be advanced easily.
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We present a novel numerical approach for the comprehensive, flexible, and accurate simulation of poro-elastic wave propagation in 2D polar coordinates. An important application of this method and its extensions will be the modeling of complex seismic wave phenomena in fluid-filled boreholes, which represents a major, and as of yet largely unresolved, computational problem in exploration geophysics. In view of this, we consider a numerical mesh, which can be arbitrarily heterogeneous, consisting of two or more concentric rings representing the fluid in the center and the surrounding porous medium. The spatial discretization is based on a Chebyshev expansion in the radial direction and a Fourier expansion in the azimuthal direction and a Runge-Kutta integration scheme for the time evolution. A domain decomposition method is used to match the fluid-solid boundary conditions based on the method of characteristics. This multi-domain approach allows for significant reductions of the number of grid points in the azimuthal direction for the inner grid domain and thus for corresponding increases of the time step and enhancements of computational efficiency. The viability and accuracy of the proposed method has been rigorously tested and verified through comparisons with analytical solutions as well as with the results obtained with a corresponding, previously published, and independently bench-marked solution for 2D Cartesian coordinates. Finally, the proposed numerical solution also satisfies the reciprocity theorem, which indicates that the inherent singularity associated with the origin of the polar coordinate system is adequately handled.
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We study the existence of moments and the tail behaviour of the densitiesof storage processes. We give sufficient conditions for existence andnon-existence of moments using the integrability conditions ofsubmultiplicative functions with respect to Lévy measures. Then, we studythe asymptotical behavior of the tails of these processes using the concaveor convex envelope of the release rate function.
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We present a novel numerical approach for the comprehensive, flexible, and accurate simulation of poro-elastic wave propagation in cylindrical coordinates. An important application of this method is the modeling of complex seismic wave phenomena in fluid-filled boreholes, which represents a major, and as of yet largely unresolved, computational problem in exploration geophysics. In view of this, we consider a numerical mesh consisting of three concentric domains representing the borehole fluid in the center, the borehole casing and the surrounding porous formation. The spatial discretization is based on a Chebyshev expansion in the radial direction, Fourier expansions in the other directions, and a Runge-Kutta integration scheme for the time evolution. A domain decomposition method based on the method of characteristics is used to match the boundary conditions at the fluid/porous-solid and porous-solid/porous-solid interfaces. The viability and accuracy of the proposed method has been tested and verified in 2D polar coordinates through comparisons with analytical solutions as well as with the results obtained with a corresponding, previously published, and independently benchmarked solution for 2D Cartesian coordinates. The proposed numerical solution also satisfies the reciprocity theorem, which indicates that the inherent singularity associated with the origin of the polar coordinate system is handled adequately.
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Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.
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The physical disector is a method of choice for estimating unbiased neuron numbers; nevertheless, calibration is needed to evaluate each counting method. The validity of this method can be assessed by comparing the estimated cell number with the true number determined by a direct counting method in serial sections. We reconstructed a 1/5 of rat lumbar dorsal root ganglia taken from two experimental conditions. From each ganglion, images of 200 adjacent semi-thin sections were used to reconstruct a volumetric dataset (stack of voxels). On these stacks the number of sensory neurons was estimated and counted respectively by physical disector and direct counting methods. Also, using the coordinates of nuclei from the direct counting, we simulate, by a Matlab program, disector pairs separated by increasing distances in a ganglion model. The comparison between the results of these approaches clearly demonstrates that the physical disector method provides a valid and reliable estimate of the number of sensory neurons only when the distance between the consecutive disector pairs is 60 microm or smaller. In these conditions the size of error between the results of physical disector and direct counting does not exceed 6%. In contrast when the distance between two pairs is larger than 60 microm (70-200 microm) the size of error increases rapidly to 27%. We conclude that the physical dissector method provides a reliable estimate of the number of rat sensory neurons only when the separating distance between the consecutive dissector pairs is no larger than 60 microm.
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Although the molecular typing of Pseudomonas aeruginosa is important to understand the local epidemiology of this opportunistic pathogen, it remains challenging. Our aim was to develop a simple typing method based on the sequencing of two highly variable loci. Single-strand sequencing of three highly variable loci (ms172, ms217, and oprD) was performed on a collection of 282 isolates recovered between 1994 and 2007 (from patients and the environment). As expected, the resolution of each locus alone [number of types (NT) = 35-64; index of discrimination (ID) = 0.816-0.964] was lower than the combination of two loci (NT = 78-97; ID = 0.966-0.971). As each pairwise combination of loci gave similar results, we selected the most robust combination with ms172 [reverse; R] and ms217 [R] to constitute the double-locus sequence typing (DLST) scheme for P. aeruginosa. This combination gave: (i) a complete genotype for 276/282 isolates (typability of 98%), (ii) 86 different types, and (iii) an ID of 0.968. Analysis of multiple isolates from the same patients or taps showed that DLST genotypes are generally stable over a period of several months. The high typability, discriminatory power, and ease of use of the proposed DLST scheme makes it a method of choice for local epidemiological analyses of P. aeruginosa. Moreover, the possibility to give unambiguous definition of types allowed to develop an Internet database ( http://www.dlst.org ) accessible by all.
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The need for upgrading a large number of understrength bridges in the United States has been well documented in the literature. This manual presents two methods for strengthening continuous-span composite bridges: post-tensioning of the positive moment regions of the bridge stringers and the addition of superimposed trusses at the piers. The use of these two systems is an efficient method of reducing flexural overstresses in undercapacity bridges. Before strengthening a given bridge however, other deficiencies (inadequate shear connection, fatigue problems, extensive corrosion) should be addressed. Since continuous-span composite bridges are indeterminant structures, there is longitudinal and transverse distribution of the strengthening axial forces and moments. This manual basically provides the engineer with a procedure for determining the distribution of strengthening forces and moments throughout the bridge. As a result of the longitudinal and transverse force distribution, the design methodology presented in this manual for continuous-span composite bridges is extremely complex. To simplify the procedure, a spreadsheet has been developed for use by practicing engineers. This design aid greatly simplifies the design of a strengthening system for a given bridge in that it eliminates numerous tedious hand calculations, computes the required force and moment fractions, and performs the necessary iterations for determining the required strengthening forces. The force and moment distribution fraction formulas developed in this manual are primarily for the Iowa DOT V12 and V14 three-span four-stringer bridges. These formulas may be used on other bridges if they are within the limits stated in this manual. Use of the distribution fraction formulas for bridges not within the stated limits is not recommended.
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OBJECTIVE: The aim of the current study was to investigate the biomechanical stability and fixation strength provided by a posterior approach reconstruction technique to realign the craniovertebral junction.¦METHODS: We tested seven human cadaver occipito-cervical spines (occiput-C4) by applying pure moments of ±1.5 Nm on a spine tester. Each specimen was tested in the following modes: 1) intact; 2) injured; 3) spacers alone at C1-C2 articulation (S); 4) spacers plus C1-C2 Posterior Instrumentation (S+PI); and 5) spacers plus C1-C2 posterior instrumentation plus midline wiring (S+PI+MLW). C1-C2 range of motion for each construct was obtained in flexion-extension, lateral bending, and axial rotation.¦RESULTS: In all the loading modes, S, S+PI, and S+PI+MLW constructs significantly reduced range of motion compared with the intact and injured condition (P < 0.05). There was no statistical difference between any of the three instrumentation constructs (P > 0.05).¦CONCLUSIONS: This study investigated the biomechanics of the posterior approach technique for realignment of the craniovertebral junction and also made comparisons with additional posterior fixations. The stand-alone spacers were stable in all three loading modes. Posterior instrumentation increased the stability as compared to stand-alone spacers. The third point of fixation, carried out by using midline wiring, increased the stability further. However, there was not much difference in the stability imparted with the midline wiring versus without. The present study highlights the biomechanics of this novel concept and reaffirms the view that distraction of the C1-C2 articular facets and direct articular joint atlantoaxial fixation would be an ideal method of management of basilar invagination.