Downwelling solar irradiance in the biomass burning region of the southern Amazon: Dependence on aerosol intensive optical properties and role of water vapor

The sensitivity of solar irradiance at the surface to the variability of aerosol intensive optical properties is investigated for a site (Alta Floresta) in the southern portion of the Amazon basin using detailed comparisons between measured and modeled irradiances. Apart from aerosol intensive optical properties, specifically single scattering albedo (omega(o lambda)) and asymmetry parameter (g(lambda)), which were assumed constant, all other relevant input to the model were prescribed based on observation. For clean conditions, the differences between observed and modeled irradiances were consistent with instrumental uncertainty. For polluted conditions, the agreement was significantly worse, with a root mean square difference three times larger (23.5 Wm(-2)). Analysis revealed a noteworthy correlation between the irradiance differences (observed minus modeled) and the column water vapor (CWV) for polluted conditions. Positive differences occurred mostly in wet conditions, while the differences became more negative as the atmosphere dried. To explore the hypothesis that the irradiance differences might be linked to the modulation of omega(o lambda) and g(lambda) by humidity, AERONET retrievals of aerosol properties and CWV over the same site were analyzed. The results highlight the potential role of humidity in modifying omega(o lambda) and g(lambda) and suggest that to explain the relationship seen between irradiances differences via aerosols properties the focus has to be on humidity-dependent processes that affect particles chemical composition. Undoubtedly, there is a need to better understand the role of humidity in modifying the properties of smoke aerosols in the southern portion of the Amazon basin.

Pion: space-like structure

The scalar form factor describes modifications induced by the pion over the quark condensate. Assuming that representations produced by chiral perturbation theory can be pushed to high values of negative-t, a region in configuration space is reached (r < R similar to 0.5 fm) where the form factor changes sign, indicating that the condensate has turned into empty space. A simple model for the pion incorporates this feature into density functions. When supplemented by scalar-meson excitations, it yields predictions close to empirical values for the mean square radius (< r(2)>(pi)(S) = 0.59 fm(2)) and for one of the low energy constants ((l) over bar (4) = 4.3), with no adjusted parameters.

Recording from Two Neurons: Second-Order Stimulus Reconstruction from Spike Trains and Population Coding

We study the reconstruction of visual stimuli from spike trains, representing the reconstructed stimulus by a Volterra series up to second order. We illustrate this procedure in a prominent example of spiking neurons, recording simultaneously from the two H1 neurons located in the lobula plate of the fly Chrysomya megacephala. The fly views two types of stimuli, corresponding to rotational and translational displacements. Second-order reconstructions require the manipulation of potentially very large matrices, which obstructs the use of this approach when there are many neurons. We avoid the computation and inversion of these matrices using a convenient set of basis functions to expand our variables in. This requires approximating the spike train four-point functions by combinations of two-point functions similar to relations, which would be true for gaussian stochastic processes. In our test case, this approximation does not reduce the quality of the reconstruction. The overall contribution to stimulus reconstruction of the second-order kernels, measured by the mean squared error, is only about 5% of the first-order contribution. Yet at specific stimulus-dependent instants, the addition of second-order kernels represents up to 100% improvement, but only for rotational stimuli. We present a perturbative scheme to facilitate the application of our method to weakly correlated neurons.

Performance of balanced two-stage empirical predictors of realized cluster latent values from finite populations: A simulation study

Predictors of random effects are usually based on the popular mixed effects (ME) model developed under the assumption that the sample is obtained from a conceptual infinite population; such predictors are employed even when the actual population is finite. Two alternatives that incorporate the finite nature of the population are obtained from the superpopulation model proposed by Scott and Smith (1969. Estimation in multi-stage surveys. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 64, 830-840) or from the finite population mixed model recently proposed by Stanek and Singer (2004. Predicting random effects from finite population clustered samples with response error. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99, 1119-1130). Predictors derived under the latter model with the additional assumptions that all variance components are known and that within-cluster variances are equal have smaller mean squared error (MSE) than the competitors based on either the ME or Scott and Smith`s models. As population variances are rarely known, we propose method of moment estimators to obtain empirical predictors and conduct a simulation study to evaluate their performance. The results suggest that the finite population mixed model empirical predictor is more stable than its competitors since, in terms of MSE, it is either the best or the second best and when second best, its performance lies within acceptable limits. When both cluster and unit intra-class correlation coefficients are very high (e.g., 0.95 or more), the performance of the empirical predictors derived under the three models is similar. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting random effects with an expanded finite population mixed model

Prediction of random effects is an important problem with expanding applications. In the simplest context, the problem corresponds to prediction of the latent value (the mean) of a realized cluster selected via two-stage sampling. Recently, Stanek and Singer [Predicting random effects from finite population clustered samples with response error. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99, 119-130] developed best linear unbiased predictors (BLUP) under a finite population mixed model that outperform BLUPs from mixed models and superpopulation models. Their setup, however, does not allow for unequally sized clusters. To overcome this drawback, we consider an expanded finite population mixed model based on a larger set of random variables that span a higher dimensional space than those typically applied to such problems. We show that BLUPs for linear combinations of the realized cluster means derived under such a model have considerably smaller mean squared error (MSE) than those obtained from mixed models, superpopulation models, and finite population mixed models. We motivate our general approach by an example developed for two-stage cluster sampling and show that it faithfully captures the stochastic aspects of sampling in the problem. We also consider simulation studies to illustrate the increased accuracy of the BLUP obtained under the expanded finite population mixed model. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Docking and molecular dynamics simulation of quinone compounds with trypanocidal activity

In this work, two different docking programs were used, AutoDock and FlexX, which use different types of scoring functions and searching methods. The docking poses of all quinone compounds studied stayed in the same region in the trypanothione reductase. This region is a hydrophobic pocket near to Phe396, Pro398 and Leu399 amino acid residues. The compounds studied displays a higher affinity in trypanothione reductase (TR) than glutathione reductase (GR), since only two out of 28 quinone compounds presented more favorable docking energy in the site of human enzyme. The interaction of quinone compounds with the TR enzyme is in agreement with other studies, which showed different binding sites from the ones formed by cysteines 52 and 58. To verify the results obtained by docking, we carried out a molecular dynamics simulation with the compounds that presented the highest and lowest docking energies. The results showed that the root mean square deviation (RMSD) between the initial and final pose were very small. In addition, the hydrogen bond pattern was conserved along the simulation. In the parasite enzyme, the amino acid residues Leu399, Met400 and Lys402 are replaced in the human enzyme by Met406, Tyr407 and Ala409, respectively. In view of the fact that Leu399 is an amino acid of the Z site, this difference could be explored to design selective inhibitors of TR.

The most severe parkinsonian patients are most improved with duodenal levodopa infusion

Objectives:To find variables correlated to improvement with intraduodenal levodopa/carbidopa infusion (Duodopa) in order to identify potential candidates for this treatment. Two clinical studies comparing Duodopa with oral treatments in patients with advanced Parkinson’s disease have shown significant improvement in percent on-time on a global treatment response scale (TRS) based on hourly and half-hourly clinical ratings and in median UPDRS scores.Methods:Data from study 1 comparing infusion with Sinemet CR (12 patients, Nyholm et al, Clin Neuropharmacol 2003; 26(3): 156-163) and study 2 comparing infusion with individually optimised conventional combination therapies (18 patients, Nyholm et al, Neurology, in press) were used. Measures of severity were defined as total UPDRS score and scores for sections II and III, percent functional on-time and mean squared error of ratings on the TRS and as mean of diary questions about mobility and satisfaction (only study 2). Absolute improvement was defined as difference in severity, and relative improvement was defined as percent absolute improvement/severity on oral treatment. Pearson correlation coefficients between measures of improvement and other variables were calculated.Results:Correlations (r2>0.28, p<0.05) between severity during oral treatment and absolute improvement on infusion were found for: Total UPDRS, UPDRS III and TRS ratings (studies 1 and 2) and for diary question 1 (mobility) and UPDRS II (study 2). Correlation to relative improvement was found for total UPDRS (study 2, r2=0.47). Figure 1 illustrates absolute improvement in total UPDRS vs. total UPDRS during oral treatment (study 2).Conclusion:Correlating different measures of severity and improvement revealed that patients with more severe symptoms were most improved and that the relation between severity and improvement was linear within the studied groups. The result, which was reproducible between two clinical studies, could be useful when deciding candidates for the treatment.

Analysis of response to enteral infusion of levodopa in patients with Parkinson's disease

Objective: We present a new evaluation of levodopa plasma concentrations and clinical effects during duodenal infusion of a levodopa/carbidopa gel (Duodopa ) in 12 patients with advanced Parkinson s disease (PD), from a study reported previously (Nyholm et al, Clin Neuropharmacol 2003; 26(3): 156-163). One objective was to investigate in what state of PD we can see the greatest benefits with infusion compared with corresponding oral treatment (Sinemet CR). Another objective was to identify fluctuating response to levodopa and correlate to variables related to disease progression. Methods: We have computed mean absolute error (MAE) and mean squared error (MSE) for the clinical rating from -3 (severe parkinsonism) to +3 (severe dyskinesia) as measures of the clinical state over the treatment periods of the study. Standard deviation (SD) of the rating was used as a measure of response fluctuations. Linear regression and visual inspection of graphs were used to estimate relationships between these measures and variables related to disease progression such as years on levodopa (YLD) or unified PD rating scale part II (UPDRS II).Results: We found that MAE for infusion had a strong linear correlation to YLD (r2=0.80) while the corresponding relation for oral treatment looked more sigmoid, particularly for the more advanced patients (YLD>18).

Influência da adaptação funcional nas relações torque-ângulo e torque-velocidade

O objetivo do presente estudo foi comparar as relações torque-ângulo (T-A) e torque-velocidade (T-V) de bailarinas clássicas (n=14) e atletas de voleibol (n=22). O torque máximo (Tmax) da musculatura flexora plantar (FP) do tornozelo foi avaliada durante contrações isométricas voluntárias máximas nos ângulos de -10°, 0°, 10°, 20°, 30°, 40° e 50° de FP, e durante contrações isocinéticas voluntárias máximas nas velocidades angulares de 60°/s, 120°/s, 180°/s, 240°/s, 300°/s, 360°/s e 420°/s. Além do Tmax, o torque produzido nos ângulos articulares de -10° (T-10°), 10° (T10°) e 30° (T30°) também foi avaliado nas mesmas velocidades angulares. A ativação elétrica dos músculos gastrocnêmio medial (GM) e sóleo (SOL) direitos de cada indivíduo foi monitorada com eletrodos de eletromiografia (EMG) de superfície em configuração bipolar. Uma relação linear foi observada entre o Tmax e o aumento dos ângulos de FP nas atletas de voleibol Um deslocamento dessa relação em direção a maiores ângulos de FP (menores comprimentos musculares) ocorreu no grupo das bailarinas, com o aparecimento de um platô em menores ângulos de FP (maiores comprimentos musculares). Durante as contrações isocinéticas, uma relação hiperbólica foi observada entre o Tmax, T-10° e T10° com o aumento da velocidade angular nos dois grupos. Entretanto, em T30° as atletas de voleibol produziram valores superiores de torque nas velocidades angulares mais elevadas. Os valores root mean square (RMS) dos músculos GM e SOL foram mais elevados nas bailarinas que nas atletas de voleibol, tanto nas contrações isométricas quanto nas isocinéticas. Uma diminuição na ativação do GM e do SOL ocorreu com a diminuição da FP nas atletas de voleibol, enquanto os valores RMS se mantiveram estáveis para as bailarinas ao longo de todos os ângulos testados. Os resultados apresentados nesse estudo suportam a hipótese de que a atividade física sistemática provoca alteração nas propriedades intrínsecas musculares e ativação muscular, modificando assim, as relações T-A e T-V.

Efeitos da espacialização de propriedades físicas nas respostas hidrológicas da bacia do rio Ibirapuitã, Rio Grande do Sul

O objetivo desta tese consistiu em avaliar a influência da espacialização de propriedades físicas de bacias hidrográficas, relacionadas à topografia, ao uso do solo, à litologia e à tectônica, e os efeitos na resposta hidrológica. Tais elementos foram desagregados em unidades de resposta hidrológica através de uma estrutura vetorial, com base em técnicas de sensoriamento remoto e sistemas de informação geográfica, que facilitou a modelagem, contemplando os processos hidrológicos verticais e laterais envolvidos. Diferentes níveis de agregação e desagregação espacial alicerçaram a aplicação do hidrograma de Clark para a transformação de chuva em vazão com base nos valores da precipitação efetiva, a partir da utilização do método curva número - CN. A bacia hidrográfica do Rio Ibirapuitã, localizada no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil, com área de 5.976 km2, constituiu o estudo de caso, cuja espacialização envolveu um pixel de um km e a utilização do conceito de hidrotopos. As características geológicas evidenciaram a incidência de rochas vulcânicas basálticas (72%), arenitos (24%) e siltito-folhelho (4%), e lineamentos tectônicos, espacializados sob a forma de freqüência, com ocorrência de 47% para a classe forte, 35% para a classe média, 12% para a classe muito forte e o restante 6 % para a classe fraca. A topografia evidenciou um relevo em que as cotas topográficas indicaram valores entre 70 e 230 m. O uso do solo é caracterizado por seis classes, com destaque para campos e pastagens que cobrem cerca de 60% da área, seguindo-se a cultura de arroz irrigado (27%) e matas (11%). Às simulações hidrológicas iniciadas com a influência da litologia, seguiram-se com a incorporação sucessiva dos efeitos da tectônica, da desagregação em duas sub-bacias, da desagregação em cinco sub-bacias. Os resultados obtidos pelas simulações hidrológicas e avaliados pelo coeficiente de eficiência R2 de Nash e Sutcliffe pelo erro médio absoluto (Mean Absolute Error – MAE) e pelos seus incrementos indicaram: a) que os efeitos da variabilidade espacial da litologia constituiu a influência mais significativa (R2 = 0,489, MAE = 0,32); b) que a tectônica foi o segundo fator em importância (R2 = 0,569, MAE = 0,25).; que a desagregação em duas sub-bacias foi a menos importante.(R2 = 0,582, MAE = 0,24); que a desagregação em cinco sub-bacias foi o terceiro fator mais importante (R2 = 0,725, MAE = 0,24).

The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: lessons from a parametric term structure model

Parametric term structure models have been successfully applied to innumerous problems in fixed income markets, including pricing, hedging, managing risk, as well as studying monetary policy implications. On their turn, dynamic term structure models, equipped with stronger economic structure, have been mainly adopted to price derivatives and explain empirical stylized facts. In this paper, we combine flavors of those two classes of models to test if no-arbitrage affects forecasting. We construct cross section (allowing arbitrages) and arbitrage-free versions of a parametric polynomial model to analyze how well they predict out-of-sample interest rates. Based on U.S. Treasury yield data, we find that no-arbitrage restrictions significantly improve forecasts. Arbitrage-free versions achieve overall smaller biases and Root Mean Square Errors for most maturities and forecasting horizons. Furthermore, a decomposition of forecasts into forward-rates and holding return premia indicates that the superior performance of no-arbitrage versions is due to a better identification of bond risk premium.

A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the (feasible) bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular, it is asymptotically equivalent to the conditional expectation, i.e., has an optimal limiting mean-squared error. We also develop a zeromean test for the average bias and discuss the forecast-combination puzzle in small and large samples. Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the feasible bias-corrected average forecast in finite samples. An empirical exercise based upon data from a well known survey is also presented. Overall, theoretical and empirical results show promise for the feasible bias-corrected average forecast.

A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular it delivers a zero-limiting mean-squared error if the number of forecasts and the number of post-sample time periods is sufficiently large. We also develop a zero-mean test for the average bias. Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of this new technique in finite samples. An empirical exercise, based upon data from well known surveys is also presented. Overall, these results show promise for the bias-corrected average forecast.

A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the (feasible) bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular, it is asymptotically equivalent to the conditional expectation, i.e., has an optimal limiting mean-squared error. We also develop a zeromean test for the average bias and discuss the forecast-combination puzzle in small and large samples. Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the feasible bias-corrected average forecast in finite samples. An empirical exercise, based upon data from a well known survey is also presented. Overall, these results show promise for the feasible bias-corrected average forecast.

Propriedades mecânicas e elétricas do músculo sóleo do gato e dos flexores plantares e dorsais de seres humanos após entorse e imobilização de tornozelo

A literatura tem mostrado, por intermédio de estudos com animais e seres humanos, que o uso reduzido da musculatura (como por exemplo, a imobilização de um segmento) produz uma série de alterações estruturais e funcionais no músculo esquelético. As principais alterações observadas no músculo após a redução do uso estão relacionadas com alterações nas propriedades bioquímicas, na composição de fibras musculares, atrofia muscular, redução na capacidade de produção de força, e redução na capacidade de ativação. Apesar de a maior parte dos estudos sobre o assunto ter sido realizada em modelos animais (os quais possibilitam o estudo invasivo dos mecanismos de adaptação), a incidência de lesões articulares em seres humanos tem motivado os pesquisadores a buscar métodos alternativos e nãoinvasivos para o diagnóstico e acompanhamento das lesões articulares. Tendo em vista que a mecanomiografia (MMG) é uma técnica não-invasiva que permite o estudo do comportamento mecânico e fisiológico do músculo, acredita-se que esta técnica, associada com a avaliação da capacidade de produção de força e com a eletromiografia (EMG), possa ser um método útil no diagnóstico das alterações produzidas por essas lesões e no acompanhamento de programas de reabilitação. O objetivo desse estudo foi avaliar as adaptações musculares após um período de imobilização de duas semanas. Três estudos foram desenvolvidos, sendo os dois primeiros com seres humanos e o terceiro em um modelo animal. O primeiro estudo avaliou as respostas eletromiográficas, mecanomiográficas e de torque dos músculos flexores plantares e dos flexores dorsais do tornozelo durante esforço voluntário. Foram avaliados 23 indivíduos que tiveram seus tornozelos imobilizados em função de um entorse de grau II, e 32 indivíduos saudáveis, que fizeram parte do grupo controle. O segundo estudo, por sua vez, investigou as alterações no comportamento mecânico dos mesmos grupos musculares do estudo 1, ao longo de um protocolo de contrações produzidas via estimulação elétrica, utilizando-se várias freqüências de estimulação (de 5 a 60 Hz). Nos dois estudos, os valores de torque dos flexores plantares e dos flexores dorsais no grupo imobilizado foram significativamente inferiores aos do grupo controle. Essa redução foi mais evidente nos flexores plantares do que nos flexores dorsais. Os valores root mean square (RMS) do sinal EMG, durante a CVM (estudo 1), foram significativamente menores nos músculos gastrocnêmio medial (GM), sóleo (SOL) e tibial anterior (TA) do grupo que foi imobilizado quando comparado ao grupo controle. A mediana da freqüência (MDF) do sinal EMG, durante a CVM, no estudo 1, não apresentou diferença significativa entre os dois grupos da amostra, em nenhum dos três músculos estudados (GM, SOL e TA). Os valores RMS e a MDF do sinal MMG dos músculos GM, SOL e TA não apresentaram diferenças significativas entre os dois grupos da amostra, em nenhum dos dois estudos, indicando que a técnica da MMG não foi capaz de revelar as alterações musculares produzidas por um período de imobilização. O terceiro estudo avaliou as alterações das propriedades mecânicas devido a alterações no comprimento muscular e na freqüência de estimulação nos músculos SOL de 3 gatos. As relações força-comprimento foram estabelecidas ao nível articular, muscular, das fibras musculares e dos sarcômeros. Os resultados demonstraram que as variações de comprimento da fibra diferem das variações de comprimento do músculo como um todo, principalmente nos comprimentos mais encurtados. Existe um maior encurtamento da fibra com o aumento da freqüência de estimulação nos menores comprimentos musculares, enquanto nos maiores comprimentos musculares o aumento da freqüência de estimulação tem um efeito similar sobre as fibras e o músculo como um todo. Os principais achados do presente estudo são de que as respostas da EMG e de torque são alteradas por um período de 2 semanas de imobilização, enquanto as respostas da MMG não, e que o comprimento muscular é uma importante variável que deve ser controlada a nível tanto das fibras musculares, quanto dos componentes elásticos no estudo das propriedades mecânicas do músculo esquelético.