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Methods in Monte Carlo solution of the radiation transport equation /

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Mode of access: Internet.

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Simulation using the Monte Carlo method

Photocopy. Springfield, Va., Distributed by Clearinghouse for Federal Scientific and Technical Information [1969]

The burden of major depression avoidable by longer-term treatment strategies

Background: Major depression is the largest single cause of nonfatal disease burden in Australia. Effective drug and psychological treatments exist, yet are underused. Objective: To quantify the burden of disease currently averted in people seeking care for major depression and the amount of disease burden that could be averted in these people under optimal episodic and maintenance treatment strategies. Design: Modeling impact of current and optimal treatment strategies based on secondary analysis of mental health survey data, studies of the natural history of major depression, and meta-analyses of effectiveness data. Monte Carlo simulation of uncertainty in the model. Setting: The cohort of Australian adults experiencing an episode of major depression in 2000 are modeled through "what if" scenarios of no treatment, current treatment, and optimal treatment strategies with cognitive behavioral therapy or antidepressant drug treatment. Main Outcome Measure: Disability-Adjusted Life Year. Results: Current episodic treatment averts 9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6%-12%) of the disease burden of major depression in Australian adults. Optimal episodic treatment with cognitive behavioral therapy could avert 28% (95% uncertainty interval, 19%-39%) of this disease burden, and with drugs 24% (95% uncertainty interval, 19%-30%) could be averted. During the 5 years after an episode of major depression, current episodic treatment patterns would avert 13% (95% uncertainty interval, 10%-17%) of Disability-Adjusted Life Years, whereas maintenance drug treatment could avert 50% (95% uncertainty interval, 40%-60%) and maintenance cognitive behavioral therapy could avert 52% (95% uncertainty interval, 42%-64%), even if adherence of around 60% is taken into account. Conclusions: Longer-term maintenance drug or psychological treatment strategies are required to make significant inroads into the large disease burden associated with major depression in the Australian population.

Colorectal cancer screening in Australia: an economic evaluation of a potential biennial screening program using faecal occult blood tests

Objective: To evaluate whether the introduction of a national, co-ordinated screening program using the faecal occult blood test represents 'value-for-money' from the perspective of the Australian Government as third-party funder. Methods: The annual equivalent costs and consequences of a biennial screening program in 'steady-state' operation were estimated for the Australian population using 1996 as the reference year. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the years of life lost (YLLs) averted, and the health service costs were modelled, based on the epidemiology and the costs of colorectal cancer in Australia together with the mortality reduction achieved in randomised controlled trials. Uncertainty in the model was examined using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Results: We estimate a minimum or 'base program' of screening those aged 55 to 69 years could avert 250 deaths per annum (95% uncertainty interval 99-400), at a gross cost of $A55 million (95% UI $A46 million to $A96 million) and a gross incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $A17,000/DALY (95% UI $A13,000/DALY to $A52,000/DALY). Extending the program to include 70 to 74-year-olds is a more effective option (cheaper and higher health gain) than including the 50 to 54-year-olds. Conclusions: The findings of this study support the case for a national program directed at the 55 to 69-year-old age group with extension to 70 to 74-year-olds if there are sufficient resources. The pilot tests recently announced in Australia provide an important opportunity to consider the age range for screening and the sources of uncertainty, identified in the modelled evaluation, to assist decisions on implementing a full national program.

Prediction of high-pressure adsorption equilibrium of supercritical gases using density functional theory

In this paper, we present the results of the prediction of the high-pressure adsorption equilibrium of supercritical. gases (Ar, N-2, CH4, and CO2) on various activated carbons (BPL, PCB, and Norit R1 extra) at various temperatures using a density-functional-theory-based finite wall thickness (FWT) model. Pore size distribution results of the carbons are taken from our recent previous work 1,2 using this approach for characterization. To validate the model, isotherms calculated from the density functional theory (DFT) approach are comprehensively verified against those determined by grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulation, before the theoretical adsorption isotherms of these investigated carbons calculated by the model are compared with the experimental adsorption measurements of the carbons. We illustrate the accuracy and consistency of the FWT model for the prediction of adsorption isotherms of the all investigated gases. The pore network connectivity problem occurring in the examined carbons is also discussed, and on the basis of the success of the predictions assuming a similar pore size distribution for accessible and inaccessible regions, it is suggested that this is largely related to the disordered nature of the carbon.

Process systems modelling and applications in granulation: A review

Granulation is one of the fundamental operations in particulate processing and has a very ancient history and widespread use. Much fundamental particle science has occurred in the last two decades to help understand the underlying phenomena. Yet, until recently the development of granulation systems was mostly based on popular practice. The use of process systems approaches to the integrated understanding of these operations is providing improved insight into the complex nature of the processes. Improved mathematical representations, new solution techniques and the application of the models to industrial processes are yielding better designs, improved optimisation and tighter control of these systems. The parallel development of advanced instrumentation and the use of inferential approaches provide real-time access to system parameters necessary for improvements in operation. The use of advanced models to help develop real-time plant diagnostic systems provides further evidence of the utility of process system approaches to granulation processes. This paper highlights some of those aspects of granulation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of cognitive-behavioural therapy and drug interventions for major depression

Objective: Antidepressant drugs and cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) are effective treatment options for depression and are recommended by clinical practice guidelines. As part of the Assessing Cost-effectiveness - Mental Health project we evaluate the available evidence on costs and benefits of CBT and drugs in the episodic and maintenance treatment of major depression. Method: The cost-effectiveness is modelled from a health-care perspective as the cost per disability-adjusted life year. Interventions are targeted at people with major depression who currently seek care but receive non-evidence based treatment. Uncertainty in model inputs is tested using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Results: All interventions for major depression examined have a favourable incremental cost-effectiveness ratio under Australian health service conditions. Bibliotherapy, group CBT, individual CBT by a psychologist on a public salary and tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs) are very cost-effective treatment options falling below $A10 000 per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) even when taking the upper limit of the uncertainty interval into account. Maintenance treatment with selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors (SSRIs) is the most expensive option (ranging from $A17 000 to $A20 000 per DALY) but still well below $A50 000, which is considered the affordable threshold. Conclusions: A range of cost-effective interventions for episodes of major depression exists and is currently underutilized. Maintenance treatment strategies are required to significantly reduce the burden of depression, but the cost of long-term drug treatment for the large number of depressed people is high if SSRIs are the drug of choice. Key policy issues with regard to expanded provision of CBT concern the availability of suitably trained providers and the funding mechanisms for therapy in primary care.

Testing multiple mapping conditioning mixing for Monte Carlo probability density function simulations

Mitarai [Phys. Fluids 17, 047101 (2005)] compared turbulent combustion models against homogeneous direct numerical simulations with extinction/recognition phenomena. The recently suggested multiple mapping conditioning (MMC) was not considered and is simulated here for the same case with favorable results. Implementation issues crucial for successful MMC simulations are also discussed.

Adsorption in slit pores and pore-size distribution: A molecular layer structure theory

A new approach is developed to analyze the thermodynamic properties of a sub-critical fluid adsorbed in a slit pore of activated carbon. The approach is based on a representation that an adsorbed fluid forms an ordered structure close to a smoothed solid surface. This ordered structure is modelled as a collection of parallel molecular layers. Such a structure allows us to express the Helmholtz free energy of a molecular layer as the sum of the intrinsic Helmholtz free energy specific to that layer and the potential energy of interaction of that layer with all other layers and the solid surface. The intrinsic Helmholtz free energy of a molecular layer is a function (at given temperature) of its two-dimensional density and it can be readily obtained from bulk-phase properties, while the interlayer potential energy interaction is determined by using the 10-4 Lennard-Jones potential. The positions of all layers close to the graphite surface or in a slit pore are considered to correspond to the minimum of the potential energy of the system. This model has led to accurate predictions of nitrogen and argon adsorption on carbon black at their normal boiling points. In the case of adsorption in slit pores, local isotherms are determined from the minimization of the grand potential. The model provides a reasonable description of the 0-1 monolayer transition, phase transition and packing effect. The adsorption of nitrogen at 77.35 K and argon at 87.29 K on activated carbons is analyzed to illustrate the potential of this theory, and the derived pore-size distribution is compared favourably with that obtained by the Density Functional Theory (DFT). The model is less time-consuming than methods such as the DFT and Monte-Carlo simulation, and most importantly it can be readily extended to the adsorption of mixtures and capillary condensation phenomena.