International evidence on the predictability of returns to securitized real estate assets: econometric models versus neural networks

The performance of various statistical models and commonly used financial indicators for forecasting securitised real estate returns are examined for five European countries: the UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, France and Italy. Within a VAR framework, it is demonstrated that the gilt-equity yield ratio is in most cases a better predictor of securitized returns than the term structure or the dividend yield. In particular, investors should consider in their real estate return models the predictability of the gilt-equity yield ratio in Belgium, the Netherlands and France, and the term structure of interest rates in France. Predictions obtained from the VAR and univariate time-series models are compared with the predictions of an artificial neural network model. It is found that, whilst no single model is universally superior across all series, accuracy measures and horizons considered, the neural network model is generally able to offer the most accurate predictions for 1-month horizons. For quarterly and half-yearly forecasts, the random walk with a drift is the most successful for the UK, Belgian and Dutch returns and the neural network for French and Italian returns. Although this study underscores market context and forecast horizon as parameters relevant to the choice of the forecast model, it strongly indicates that analysts should exploit the potential of neural networks and assess more fully their forecast performance against more traditional models.

Integration and segmentation in European investment services markets: assessing the implications for international real estate investment

This paper analyses developments in the growth and configuration of the institutional savings markets within the European Union. The paper discusses the changing socio-economic context in which investment services within the EU are being delivered. The is followed by an examination of drivers of market integration such as the growth and consolidation of the fund management industry, the demographic and fiscal pressures for reform of pensions markets and the process and effects of the deregulation of investment services markets. There is a review of outstanding sources of market segmentation. The projections for future growth in pensions are outlined and implications for real estate investment assessed. It is concluded that, although numerous imponderables render reliable quantitative projections problematic, growth and restructuring of the institutional savings market is likely to increase cross-border capital flows to real estate markets.

Low cost brain-computer interface: first results

Brain-Computer Interfacing (BCI) has been previously demonstrated to restore patient communication, meeting with varying degrees of success. Due to the nature of the equipment traditionally used in BCI experimentation (the electroencephalograph) it is mostly conned to clinical and research environments. The required medical safety standards, subsequent cost of equipment and its application/training times are all issues that need to be resolved if BCIs are to be taken out of the lab/clinic and delivered to the home market. The results in this paper demonstrate a system developed with a low cost medical grade EEG amplier unit in conjunction with the open source BCI2000 software suite thus constructing the cheapest per electrode system available, meeting rigorous clinical safety standards. Discussion of the future of this technology and future work concerning this platform are also introduced.

Policy interventions to promote healthy eating: a review of what works, what does not and what is promising

Unhealthy diets can lead to various diseases, which in turn can translate into a bigger burden for the state in the form of health services and lost production. Obesity alone has enormous costs and claims thousands of lives every year. Although diet quality in the European Union has improved across countries, it still falls well short of conformity with the World Health Organization dietary guidelines. In this review, we classify types of policy interventions addressing healthy eating and identify through a literature review what specific policy interventions are better suited to improve diets. Policy interventions are classified into two broad categories: information measures and measures targeting the market environment. Using this classification, we summarize a number of previous systematic reviews, academic papers, and institutional reports and draw some conclusions about their effectiveness. Of the information measures, policy interventions aimed at reducing or banning unhealthy food advertisements generally have had a weak positive effect on improving diets, while public information campaigns have been successful in raising awareness of unhealthy eating but have failed to translate the message into action. Nutritional labeling allows for informed choice. However, informed choice is not necessarily healthier; knowing or being able to read and interpret nutritional labeling on food purchased does not necessarily result in consumption of healthier foods. Interventions targeting the market environment, such as fiscal measures and nutrient, food, and diet standards, are rarer and generally more effective, though more intrusive. Overall, we conclude that measures to support informed choice have a mixed and limited record of success. On the other hand, measures to target the market environment are more intrusive but may be more effective.

Non-standard working time: an international and comparative analysis

This paper uses the large-scale Cranet data to explore the extent of non-standard working time (NSWT) across Europe and to highlight the contrasts and similarities between two different varieties of capitalism (coordinated market economies and liberal market economies). We explore variations in the extent of different forms of NSWT (overtime, shift working and weekend working) within these two different forms of capitalism, controlling for firm size, sector and the extent of employee voice. Overall, there was no strong link between the variety of capitalism and the use of overtime and weekend working though shift working showed a clear distinction between the two varieties of capitalism. Usage of NSWT in some service sectors was particularly high under both forms of capitalism and service sector activities had a particularly marked influence on the use of overtime in liberal market economies. Surprisingly, strong employee voice was associated with greater use of NSWT.

Globalisation and the evolution of international retailing: a comment on Alexander's 'British overseas retailing, 1900-1960'

Nicholas Alexander's (2011. British overseas retailing, 1900–60: International firm characteristics, market selections and entry modes. Business History, 53, 530–556) survey of British overseas retailers from 1900 to 1960 provides pathbreaking new evidence of international retailing activity during the first globalisation boom. The article surveys this and other recent evidence, and confirms that international retailing was far more significant up to 1929 than previously thought. This activity was overwhelmingly undertaken by non-retailers, however, and hence by multinationals whose advantages in retailing were fundamentally unsustainable over the long run. Even the department store format, the principal retail innovation of the period, was not internationalised primarily by multinationals. Rather it was diffused via indigenous entrepreneurs, driven by a rapidly growing global demand for western style fashion and dress.

Ownership, occupation and risk: a view of the City of London office market

Office returns in the City of London are more volatile than in other UK markets. This volatility may reflect fluctuations in capital flows associated with changing patterns of ownership and the growing linkage between real estate and financial markets in the City. Using current and historical data, patterns of ownership in the City are investigated. They reveal that overseas ownership has grown markedly since 1985, that owners are predominantly FIRE-sector firms and that there are strong links between ownership and occupation. This raises concerns about future volatility and systemic risk in a market strongly influenced by the cyclical behaviour and shocks of the international financial system.

Consumer robotic products: studying the factors that influence market adoption

The aim of this article is to identify the key factors that are associated with the adoption of a commercial robot in the home. This article is based on the development of the robot product Cybot by the University of Reading in conjunction with a publisher (Eaglemoss International Ltd.). The robots were distributed through a new part-work magazine series (Ultimate Real Robots) that had long-term customer usage and retention. A part-work is a serial publication that is issued periodically (e.g., every two weeks), usually in magazine format, and builds into a complete collection. This magazine focused on robotics and was accompanied by cover-mounted component parts that could be assembled, with instructions, by the user to build a working robot over the series. In total, the product contributed over half a million operational domestic robots to the world market, selling over 20 million robot part-work magazines across 18 countries, thereby providing a unique breadth of insight. Gaining a better understanding of the overall attitudes that customers of this product had toward robots in the home, their perception of what such devices could deliver and how they would wish to interact with them should provide results applicable to the domestic appliance, assistance/care, entertainment, and educational markets.

The economic theory of international business: a supply chain perspective

This paper proposes a way of addressing unresolved issues in international business theory by modelling the multinational enterprise as a coordinator of supply chains. It identifies a new market seeking strategy that is an alternative to conventional strategies such as exporting, licensing and FDI, and analyses the conditions under which it will be adopted by firms. The new strategy involves the off-shoring of production and the out-sourcing of R&D, and is implemented through co-operation between a source country firm and a host country firm.