Incomplete information games of conflict and collective action

My thesis consists of three essays that investigate strategic interactions between individuals engaging in risky collective action in uncertain environments. The first essay analyzes a broad class of incomplete information coordination games with a wide range of applications in economics and politics. The second essay draws from the general model developed in the first essay to study decisions by individuals of whether to engage in protest/revolution/coup/strike. The final essay explicitly integrates state response to the analysis. The first essay, Coordination Games with Strategic Delegation of Pivotality, exhaustively analyzes a class of binary action, two-player coordination games in which players receive stochastic payoffs only if both players take a ``stochastic-coordination action''. Players receive conditionally-independent noisy private signals about the normally distributed stochastic payoffs. With this structure, each player can exploit the information contained in the other player's action only when he takes the “pivotalizing action”. This feature has two consequences: (1) When the fear of miscoordination is not too large, in order to utilize the other player's information, each player takes the “pivotalizing action” more often than he would based solely on his private information, and (2) best responses feature both strategic complementarities and strategic substitutes, implying that the game is not supermodular nor a typical global game. This class of games has applications in a wide range of economic and political phenomena, including war and peace, protest/revolution/coup/ strike, interest groups lobbying, international trade, and adoption of a new technology. My second essay, Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs, studies the decision problem of citizens who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or mount a revolution. If they coordinate, they can overthrow the status quo. Otherwise, the status quo is preserved and participants in a failed revolution are punished. Citizens face two types of uncertainty. (a) non-strategic: they are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution, (b) strategic: they are uncertain about each other's assessments of the relative payoff. I draw on the existing literature and historical evidence to argue that the uncertainty in the payoffs of status quo and revolution is intrinsic in politics. Several counter-intuitive findings emerge: (1) Better communication between citizens can lower the likelihood of revolution. In fact, when the punishment for failed protest is not too harsh and citizens' private knowledge is accurate, then further communication reduces incentives to revolt. (2) Increasing strategic uncertainty can increase the likelihood of revolution attempts, and even the likelihood of successful revolution. In particular, revolt may be more likely when citizens privately obtain information than when they receive information from a common media source. (3) Two dilemmas arise concerning the intensity and frequency of punishment (repression), and the frequency of protest. Punishment Dilemma 1: harsher punishments may increase the probability that punishment is materialized. That is, as the state increases the punishment for dissent, it might also have to punish more dissidents. It is only when the punishment is sufficiently harsh, that harsher punishment reduces the frequency of its application. Punishment Dilemma 1 leads to Punishment Dilemma 2: the frequencies of repression and protest can be positively or negatively correlated depending on the intensity of repression. My third essay, The Repression Puzzle, investigates the relationship between the intensity of grievances and the likelihood of repression. First, I make the observation that the occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I then propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents' contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thin-plate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone.

The Demobilized Body: Transgressions of Personal Space and Political Participation

Grounded in the intersection between gender politics and electoral studies, this dissertation examines the demobilizing effects of violations of personal space (in the form of domestic violence, control over mobility, emotional abuse, and sexual harassment) on the propensity to vote. Using quantitative methods across four survey datasets concerning Lebanon, the United States, Morocco, and Yemen, this research concludes that cross-regionally, familial control over mobility reduces the propensity to vote among women. Conversely, mechanisms of empowerment such as education and employment increase the propensity to vote.

States' Responding Behavior in Conflict: Asymmetric Response and Strategic Conflict Avoidance

State responses to external threats and aggression are studied with focus on two different rationales: (1) to make credible deterrent threats to avoid being exploited, and (2) to minimize the risk of escalation to unwanted war. Given external aggression, the target state's responding behavior has three possibilities: concession (under-response), reciprocation, and escalation. This study focuses on the first two possibilities and investigates how the strategic nature of crisis interaction can explain the intentional choice of concession or avoidance of retaliation. I build a two-level bargaining model that accounts for the domestic bargaining situation between the leader and the challenger for each state. The model's equilibrium shows that the responding behavior is determined not only by inter-state level variables (e.g. balance of power between two states, or cost of war that each state is supposed to pay), but also the domestic variables of both states. Next, the strategic interaction is rationally explained by the model: as the responding state believes that the initiating state has strong domestic challenges and, hence, the aggression is believed to be initiated for domestic political purposes (a rally-around-the-flag effect), the response tends to decrease. The concession is also predicted if the target state leader has strong bargaining power against her domestic challengers \emph{and} she believes that the initiating leader suffers from weak domestic standing. To test the model's prediction, I conduct a lab experiment and case studies. The experimental result shows that under an incentivized bargaining situation, individual actors are observed to react to hostile action as the model predicts: if the opponent is believed to suffer from internally driven difficulties, the subject will not punish hostile behavior of the other player as severely as she would without such a belief. The experiment also provides supporting evidence for the choice of concession: when the player finds herself in a favorable situation while the other has disadvantages, the player is more likely to make concessions in the controlled dictator game. Two cases are examined to discuss how the model can explain the choice of either reciprocation or concession. From personal interviews and fieldwork in South Korea, I find that South Korea's reciprocating behavior during the 2010 Yeonpyeong Island incident is explained by a combination of `low domestic power of initiating leader (Kim Jong-il)' and `low domestic power of responding leader (Lee Myung-bak).' On the other hand, the case of EC-121 is understood as a non-response or concession outcome. Declassified documents show that Nixon and his key advisors interpreted the attack as a result of North Korea's domestic political instabilities (low domestic power of initiating leader) and that Nixon did not have difficulties at domestic politics during the first few months of his presidency (high domestic power of responding leader).

REFUGEES AND RESETTLEMENT: A QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF REFUGEE INTEGRATION THROUGH SOCIAL & SUPPORT SERVICES

This dissertation studies refugee resettlement in the United States utilizing the Integration Indicator’s framework developed by Ager and Strang for the U.S. context. The study highlights the U.S. refugee admissions program and the policies in the states of Maryland and Massachusetts while analyzing the service delivery models and its effects on refugee integration in these locations. Though immigration policy and funding for refugee services are primarily the domain of the federal government, funds are allocated through and services are delivered at the state level. The Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR), which operates under the Department of Health and Human Services, was established after the Refugee Act of 1980 to deliver assistance to displaced persons. The ORR provides funds to individual states primarily through The Refugee Social Service and Targeted Assistance Formula Grant programs. Since the inauguration of the ORR three primary models of refugee integration through service delivery have emerged. Two of the models include the publicly/privately administered programs, where resources are allocated to the state in conjunction with private voluntary agencies; and the Wilson/Fish Alternative programs, where states sub-contract all elements of the resettlement program to voluntary agencies and private organizations —in which they can cease all state level participation and voluntary agencies or private organizations contract directly from the ORR in order for all states to deliver refugee services where the live. The specific goals of this program are early employment and economic self-sufficiency. This project utilizes US Census, state, and ORR data in conjunction with interviews of refugee resettlement practitioners involved in the service delivery and refugees. The findings show that delivery models emphasizing job training, English instruction courses, institutional collaboration, and monetary assistance, increases refugee acclimation and adaptation, providing insight into their potential for integration into the United States.

The Origins and Legacy of a Currency Board in Argentina

This is a qualitative case study of the adoption of a currency board in Argentina in 1991. It presents a discursive analysis and intellectual history of four overlaying and mutually influencing stories of Convertibility’s adoption. It is (1) the story of how Menem aligned himself to the Washington Consensus as a means to win a Presidential election. This ideological alignment influences and is influenced by a (2) reconstitution of the Peronist Party’s historically entrenched identity. This in turn re-fashion the whole system of interest articulation and relative power of interest groups in Argentina. The adoption of a currency board also marks the pace of (3) the entrenchment neoliberal interests across a domestic network of neoliberal think-tanks, technocrats, politicians, and “technopoles” articulating neoliberal interests outside of the Washington Consensus, within an International Neoliberal Network. Argentina’s adoption of a currency board falls in line with the Corner Solutions, a neoliberal doctrine promoted to influence developing countries to adopt two forms of exchange rate regimes that allow for less government involvement, including a currency board. Argentina starts as a test country and then becomes (4) an ideological stepping stone to help promote the creation of currency boards across more “developing” countries. These stories are not sequential but concurrent, and they help advance an alternative critique of neoliberalism that focuses on specifics to induce case-specific lessons versus a theory claiming to provide any universal truth.

THERE GOES THE ELECTORAL NEIGHBORHOOD: LOCAL NETWORKS, ATTRIBUTION OF RESPONSIBILITY, AND THE (UN) FAIRNESS OF ELECTIONS

During the last two decades there have been but a handful of recorded cases of electoral fraud in Latin America. However, survey research consistently shows that often citizens do not trust the integrity of the electoral process. This dissertation addresses the puzzle by explaining the mismatch between how elections are conducted and how the process is perceived. My theoretical contribution provides a double-folded argument. First, voters’ trust in their community members (“the local experience”) impacts their level of confidence in the electoral process. Since voters often find their peers working at polling stations, negative opinions about them translate into negative opinions about the election. Second, perceptions of unfairness of the system (“the global effect”) negatively impact the way people perceive the transparency of the electoral process. When the political system fails to account for social injustice, citizens lose faith in the mechanism designed to elect representatives -and ultimately a set of policies. The fact that certain groups are systematically disregarded by the system triggers the notion that the electoral process is flawed. This is motivated by either egotropic or sociotropic considerations. To test these hypotheses, I employ a survey conducted in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala during May/June 2014, which includes a population-based experiment. I show that Voters who trust their peers consistently have higher confidence in the electoral process. Whereas respondents who were primed about social unfairness (treatment) expressed less confidence in the quality of the election. Finally, I find that the local experience is predominant over the global effect. The treatment has a statistically significant effect only for respondents who trust their community. Attribution of responsibility for voters who are skeptics of their peers is clear and simple, leaving no room for a more diffuse mechanism, the unfairness of the political system. Finally, now I extend analysis to the Latin America region. Using data from LAPOP that comprises four waves of surveys in 22 countries, I confirm the influence of the “local experience” and the “global effect” as determinants of the level of confidence in the electoral process.

New worlds and new churches: The Orthodox Church(es) and the European Union

The Orthodox church(es) share a common commitment to the unity of dogma and spirituality. There is, however, no doctrinal formulation that comes close to a form of political theology at a pan-Orthodox level. This means that the Orthodox churches’ attitude towards the European Union (EU) is driven by their ecclesial diversity and by complex inter-ecclesial relations. More fundamentally they share a fragmented and plural, theological objection to the very ideas of Europe and the West. This has been further complicated by the emergence of a substantial Orthodox diaspora from Eastern Europe, Russia, and the Middle East living across the breadth of the European continent. Consequently the ecclesial identity and self-perception of the autocephalous Orthodox churches is changing. These churches are becoming increasingly transnational and extra-territorial. With this, their perception of Europe and the West, as seen through the eyes of their diaspora communities, is altering from “threat” to “home” (Makrides and Uffelmann, 2003). The growing diaspora will not only impact the Christian demographics of Europe but will also transform the Eastern Churches’ view of Europe and the EU (Leustean, 2009; 2011; 2013; 2014a; 2014b).

De gata borralheira a Cinderela :nova espacialidade decorrente do desenvolvimento turístico, diferenciada pelo estilo de vida em Ponta Negra, Natal, RN

The transformations economical, social and politics in you finish them decades of the century XX brought changes that didn't just limit to the production system. The flexible accumulation took many workers lost her/it their workstations and they look for her/it new survival forms, migrating for administrative activities, of services rendered and for the tourist activity of small and medium load. The State has been investing in the implantation of plans of tourist development in order to create favorable conditions for the reproduction of the tourist activity in Brazil, mainly in the Northeast. A space when it starts to present a predominant economical activity suffers a restructuring in their social and economical relationships. The restructuring of these relationships takes to the construction of a new espacialidade. In the city of Christmas, in Rio Grande do Norte, the neighborhood of Black Tip is the most representative of the public investments for the tourist development. After intense process of tourist urbanization, Black Tip passed interfering in the global context consolidating as the tourist locus in the city. The tourist urbanization of the neighborhood took to the transformation of the space in merchandise that is sold and consumed as such. The recreation of fragments of other cultures brought by social actors, resulting from migratory processes stimulated by the tourist development, it has been presenting ruled social relationships in the informational technology, consumption of global goods and in the fragmentation of the urban space characterized by the internationalization and cosmopolitização. That process has been masking the inequalities partners and cultural as well as the territorial appropriation for an economical elite. The spaces are being appropriate for investors of the tourist section, private investors, agents and real estate producers, where the inequality is not just economical, but also cultural. The local population, mainly of the urban fraction of the Town of Black Tip, it doesn't participate of the productive process in function of the little or any professional qualification and he/she doesn't also have access to the consumption process. To the native ones it remains the fight for the preservation of his/her cultural identity and for the survival

Natural parasitism by Trichogramma spp. in agroecosystems of the Mid-­North, Brazil.

The micro-­hymenopterans of genus Trichogramma are eggs parasitoids used in the biological control of lepidopteran pests. The objectives of this study was to record the interaction of species of Trichogramma and their hosts on crops in the Mid-­North, in the states of Maranhão and Piauí, Brazil.

Las dos caras de la organización del mundial FIFA Brasil 2014: Entre la proyección internacional y las denuncias sociales

El orgullo brasileño estalló en el año 2007, cuando Brasil fue elegido sede del mundial FIFA 2014. Esto se debe a que Brasil en ese momento gozaba de un creciente prestigio internacional por cuenta de su condición de Potencia Emergente, miembro de los BRICS, aspirante a un puesto permanente en el Consejo de Seguridad y contar con la selección de fútbol más exitosa de la historia. No obstante, en su afán por incrementar su visibilidad y proyección internacional acudió al ejercicio del Poder Blando, a través de la Diplomacia Cultural, concretamente se decidió por la Organización de Mega Eventos deportivos, al tiempo que debía enfrentar varios problemas en el ámbito interno (desigualdad, corrupción, pobreza). Así, esta estrategia de aplicación del Poder Blando resultó de cierta manera contraproducente, debido a que la política exterior y su éxito no suele estar disociada de la realidad interna.

Escaping the debt trap: peripheral countries in prolonged debt crises and how to exit

This thesis is an interdisciplinary piece of academic research, situated within Critical Theory but engaging with other disciplines, mainly Political Economy and Politics, to tackle the topic at hand; sovereign debt crises. The thesis deals with the Problem of Debt and, more specifically, the Problem of Prolonged Sovereign Debt Crises, which is described in this thesis as the phenomenon of the “Debt Trap”. The specific question that will occupy us in this thesis is why countries appear unable to exit these prolonged debt crises. By exiting a debt crisis, we mean here a state of affairs in which a country has managed to render its debt sustainable, regain its democratic sovereignty, achieve economic recovery and, what is more, mitigate adverse effects of the crisis, especially in what human development, social inequality and poverty rates are concerned. This question is tackled through the use of an interdisciplinary approach that combines critical theory perspectives -which are grouped in two paradigms, the Subjectivity paradigm and the genealogies of Capitalism paradigm- with financialisation literature. The purpose is to form an interdisciplinary intellectual framework that will allow us to analyse with a critical perspective the two case studies of the Greek crisis from 2009 to 2015 and the Argentinean crisis from 1983 to 2005. The aim of the thesis is to develop a theoretical framework that allows us to deconstruct the various ideological approaches to these two particular cases of Debt traps, including neoclassical and neoliberal approaches, Conservative and Keynesian approaches and uncover the political, economic and class relation that underpin the prolonged crises that the two countries have experienced.

Nanomolar Levels Of Pahs In Extracts From Urban Air Induce Mapk Signaling In Hepg2 Cells.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are common environmental pollutants that occur naturally in complex mixtures. Many of the adverse health effects of PAHs including cancer are linked to the activation of intracellular stress response signaling. This study has investigated intracellular MAPK signaling in response to PAHs in extracts from urban air collected in Stockholm, Sweden and Limeira, Brazil, in comparison to BP in HepG2 cells. Nanomolar concentrations of PAHs in the extracts induced activation of MEK4 signaling with down-stream increased gene expression of several important stress response mediators. Involvement of the MEK4/JNK pathway was confirmed using siRNA and an inhibitor of JNK signaling resulting in significantly reduced MAPK signaling transactivated by the AP-1 transcription factors ATF2 and c-Jun. ATF2 was also identified as a sensitive stress responsive protein with activation observed at extract concentrations equivalent to 0.1 nM BP. We show that exposure to low levels of environmental PAH mixtures more strongly activates these signaling pathways compared to BP alone suggesting effects due to interactions. Taken together, this is the first study showing the involvement of MEK4/JNK/AP-1 pathway in regulating the intracellular stress response after exposure to nanomolar levels of PAHs in environmental mixtures.

O rugbi em cadeira de rodas : aspectos tecnicos e taticos e diretrizes para seu desenvolvimento

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

O livro como recurso didatico no ensino do futebol

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

A ginastica geral na sociedade contemporanea : pespectivas para a Educação Fisica escolar

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física