Predicting response and survival in chemotherapy-treated triple-negative breast cancer.

BACKGROUND In this study, we evaluated the ability of gene expression profiles to predict chemotherapy response and survival in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). METHODS Gene expression and clinical-pathological data were evaluated in five independent cohorts, including three randomised clinical trials for a total of 1055 patients with TNBC, basal-like disease (BLBC) or both. Previously defined intrinsic molecular subtype and a proliferation signature were determined and tested. Each signature was tested using multivariable logistic regression models (for pCR (pathological complete response)) and Cox models (for survival). Within TNBC, interactions between each signature and the basal-like subtype (vs other subtypes) for predicting either pCR or survival were investigated. RESULTS Within TNBC, all intrinsic subtypes were identified but BLBC predominated (55-81%). Significant associations between genomic signatures and response and survival after chemotherapy were only identified within BLBC and not within TNBC as a whole. In particular, high expression of a previously identified proliferation signature, or low expression of the luminal A signature, was found independently associated with pCR and improved survival following chemotherapy across different cohorts. Significant interaction tests were only obtained between each signature and the BLBC subtype for prediction of chemotherapy response or survival. CONCLUSIONS The proliferation signature predicts response and improved survival after chemotherapy, but only within BLBC. This highlights the clinical implications of TNBC heterogeneity, and suggests that future clinical trials focused on this phenotypic subtype should consider stratifying patients as having BLBC or not.

The generation and re-generation of social capital and enterprises in multi-stakeholders social cooperative enterprises: a system dynamic approach

Theories on social capital and on social entrepreneurship have mainly highlighted the attitude of social capital to generate enterprises and to foster good relations between third sector organizations and the public sector. This paper considers the social capital in a specific third sector enterprise; here, multi-stakeholder social cooperatives are seen, at the same time, as social capital results, creators and incubators. In the particular enterprises that identify themselves as community social enterprises, social capital, both as organizational and relational capital, is fundamental: SCEs arise from but also produce and disseminate social capital. This paper aims to improve the building of relational social capital and the refining of helpful relations drawn from other arenas, where they were created and from where they are sometimes transferred to other realities, where their role is carried on further (often working in non-profit, horizontally and vertically arranged groups, where they share resources and relations). To represent this perspective, we use a qualitative system dynamic approach in which social capital is measured using proxies. Cooperation of volunteers, customers, community leaders and third sector local organizations is fundamental to establish trust relations between public local authorities and cooperatives. These relations help the latter to maintain long-term contracts with local authorities as providers of social services and enable them to add innovation to their services, by developing experiences and management models and maintaining an interchange with civil servants regarding these matters. The long-term relations and the organizational relations linking SCEs and public organizations help to create and to renovate social capital. Thus, multi-stakeholder cooperatives originated via social capital developed in third sector organizations produce new social capital within the cooperatives themselves and between different cooperatives (entrepreneurial components of the third sector) and the public sector. In their entrepreneurial life, cooperatives have to contrast the "working drift," as a result of which only workers remain as members of the cooperative, while other stakeholders leave the organization. Those who are not workers in the cooperative are (stake)holders with "weak ties," who are nevertheless fundamental in making a worker's cooperative an authentic social multi-stakeholders cooperative. To maintain multi-stakeholder governance and the relations with third sector and civil society, social cooperatives have to reinforce participation and dialogue with civil society through ongoing efforts to include people that provide social proposals. We try to represent these processes in a system dynamic model applied to local cooperatives, measuring the social capital created by the social cooperative through proxies, such as number of volunteers and strong cooperation with public institutions. Using a reverse-engineering approach, we can individuate the determinants of the creation of social capital and thereby give support to governance that creates social capital.

Confounding factors and genetic polymorphism in the evaluation of individual steroid profiling

In the fight against doping, steroid profiling is a powerful tool to detect drug misuse with endogenous anabolic androgenic steroids. To establish sensitive and reliable models, the factors influencing profiling should be recognised. We performed an extensive literature review of the multiple factors that could influence the quantitative levels and ratios of endogenous steroids in urine matrix. For a comprehensive and scientific evaluation of the urinary steroid profile, it is necessary to define the target analytes as well as testosterone metabolism. The two main confounding factors, that is, endogenous and exogenous factors, are detailed to show the complex process of quantifying the steroid profile within WADA-accredited laboratories. Technical aspects are also discussed as they could have a significant impact on the steroid profile, and thus the steroid module of the athlete biological passport (ABP). The different factors impacting the major components of the steroid profile must be understood to ensure scientifically sound interpretation through the Bayesian model of the ABP. Not only should the statistical data be considered but also the experts in the field must be consulted for successful implementation of the steroidal module.

Combining MAR elements and transposable vectors for more reliable transgene integration and expression

Integration without cytotoxic effects and long-term expression of a transgene constitutes a major challenge in gene therapy and biotechnology applications. In this context, transposons represent an attractive system for gene transfer because of their ability to promote efficient integration of a transgene in a variety of cell lines. However, the transgene integration can lead to insertional mutagenesis and/or unstable transgene expression by epigenetic modifications. These unwanted events may be limited by the use of chromatin control elements called MARs (matrix attachment regions). Indeed, the insertion of these DNA elements next to the transgene usually results in higher and more stable expression by maintaining transgene chromatin in an active configuration and preventing gene silencing. In this study, we tested if the inclusion of the MAR 1-68 in the piggyBac transposon system may lead to efficient and safer transgene integration and ensure reliable stable and long-term expression of a transgene. The MAR-containing transposon construct was tested in CHO cells, for biotechnology applications, and in mesoangioblast cells that can differentiate into muscle cells and are important candidates for potential stem cell therapies of myopathies. We showed that the addition of the MAR 1 -68 in the piggyBac transposon did not interfere with transposition, thereby maintaining high frequency of transgene integrations in these cells. Moreover, the MAR allowed higher transgene expression from fewer transposon integration events. We also found that enriched transgene-expressing cell populations could be obtained without the need of selection pressure. Since antibiotic-enforced selection protocols often result in a higher integrated copy number and mosaic expression patterns, this strategy could benefit many applications in which a low copy number of integrated transgenes and antibiotic-free conditions are desired. In addition, the intramuscular transplantation of mouse tibialis anterior muscles with mesoangioblasts containing the transposon led to widespread and sustained myofiber transgene expression after differentiation of these cells in vivo. These findings indicated that piggyBac vectors may provide a viable approach to achieve stable gene transfer in the context of Duchenne muscular dystrophy therapy. - L'intégration sans effets cytotoxiques et l'expression à long terme d'un transgène constituent un défi majeur en thérapie génique et en biotechnologie. Dans ce contexte, les transposons représentent un système attrayant pour le transfert de gènes en raison de leur capacité à promouvoir l'intégration efficace d'un transgène dans une variété de lignées cellulaires. Toutefois, l'intégration d'un transgène peut conduire à une mutagénèse insertionnelle et/ou à une expression instable due au silençage du transgène suite à des modifications épigénétiques. Ces événements indésirables de silençage génique peuvent être diminués par l'utilisation d'éléments de contrôle de la chromatine appelés MAR (matrix attachment region). En effet, l'insertion de ces éléments d'ADN à proximité du transgène se traduit généralement par une expression plus élevée et plus stable de celui-ci, en permettant le maintien d'une chromatine dans une configuration active autour du transgène et en empêchant l'inactivation du gène. Dans cette étude, nous avons testé si l'inclusion du MAR 1-68 dans le système transposon piggyBac peut améliorer l'efficacité d'intégration de façon sécuritaire et l'expression à long terme d'un transgène. Le transposon contenant l'élément MAR a été testé dans les cellules CHO, couramment utilisées en biotechnologie, et dans des cellules progénitrices appelées mésoangioblastes, qui peuvent se différencier en cellules musculaires, et qui constituent ainsi des candidats prometteurs pour la thérapie à partir de cellules souches de patients souffrant de myopathie. Nous avons montré que l'addition du MAR 1-68 dans le transposon piggyBac n'interfère pas avec la transposition et permet de maintenir une fréquence élevée d'intégration du transgène dans ces deux types cellulaires. De plus, il semble que cette association mène à une meilleure expression du transgène à partir de peu d'événements d'intégration du transposon. En outre, ces populations enrichies en cellules exprimant de façon stable le transgène ont pu être obtenues sans avoir recours à une pression de sélection. Etant donné que les protocoles de sélection basée sur l'utilisation d'antibiotiques conduisent souvent à un nombre plus élevé de copies intégrées et à la variégation de l'expression du transgène et qu'ils impliquent une longue culture in vitro, cette stratégie pourrait profiter à des applications pour lesquelles on souhaite un faible nombre de copies intégrées et/ou l'utilisation d'antibiotiques n'est pas souhaitable. De plus, la transplantation intramusculaire de mésoangioblastes contenant le transposon dans le muscle tibial antérieur de souris a conduit, après la différentiation de ces cellules in vivo, à une expression constante et étendue du transgène dans les myofibres. Ces résultats indiquent que les vecteurs piggyBac pourraient fournir une approche viable pour assurer un transfert de gènes stables dans le contexte d'un traitement de la dystrophic musculaire de Duchenne.

Perception of damaging effects of smoking, and brief cessation counselling by doctors : a comparison between native Swiss and immigrants

Résumé Une étude prospective ouverte a été menée parmi les patients venant pour la première fois, sans rendez-vous et en urgence, dans une policlinique urbaine (où plus de la moitié des patients sont d'origine étrangère) pour déterminer si les connaissances sur les méfaits du tabac sont identiques chez les immigrés et les Suisses, si le niveau d'intégration influence les connaissances et si les médecins du service donnent des conseils aussi souvent aux fumeurs Suisses qu'aux fumeurs étrangers. 226 fumeurs ont participé à l'étude, 105 Suisses (46.5%) et 121 étrangers (53,5%). 32.2% (95% IC [24.4%; 41.1%]) des migrants et 9.6% [5.3% ; 16.8%] des Suisses ne pouvaient pas mentionner un effet nocif du tabac. Après ajustement pour l'âge, l'analyse multivariée montre que le risque d'ignorer les méfaits du tabac est plus élevé pour les personnes ne maîtrisant pas la langue locale que pour celles la maîtrisant (odds ratio (OR)=7.5 [3.6; 15.8], p<0,001), et est plus élevé pour les hommes que pour les femmes (OR=4.3 [1.9 10.0], p<0.001). Un conseil pour arrêter de fumer a été donné avec une égale fréquence aux immigrants (31.9% [24.2% ; 40.1%]) et aux Suisses (29% [21.0% ; 38.5%]). Les patients ne maîtrisant pas la langue locale n'ont pas reçu moins de conseil que ceux la maîtrisant (0R-1.1 [0.6 ; 2.1], p=0.812). En conclusion, le niveau de connaissances des méfaits du tabac est moins bon chez les hommes immigrés non intégrés ou qui ne maîtrisent pas la langue locale. Un conseil sur l'arrêt du tabac n'est donné qu'à une minorité, mais à égale fréquence à tous les patients du service, quelle que soit leur nationalité. Abstract An open prospective study was conducted among the patients visiting an urban medical policlinic for the first time without an appointment to assess whether the immigrants (who represent more than half of our patients) are aware of the health effects of smoking, whether the level of acculturation influences knowledge, and whether doctors give similar advice to Swiss and foreign smokers. 226 smokers, 105 Swiss (46.5%), and 121 foreign-born (53.5%), participated in the study. 32.2% (95% CI [24.4%; 41.1%]) of migrants and 9.6% [5.3%; 16.8%] of Swiss patients were not aware of negative effects of smoking. After adjustment for age, the multivariate model showed that the estimated odds of "ignorance of health effects of smoking" was higher for people lacking mastery of the local language compared with those mastering it (odds ratio (OR) = 7.5 [3.6; 15.8], p <0.001), and higher for men (OR 4.3 [1.9; 10.0], p <0.001). Advice to stop smoking was given with similar frequency to immigrants (31.9% [24.2%; 40.8%] and Swiss patients (29.0% [21.0%; 38.5%]). Non-integrated patients did not appear to receive less counselling than integrated patients (OR = 1.1 [0.6; 2.1], p 0.812). We conclude that the level of knowledge among male immigrants not integrated or unable to speak the local language is lower than among integrated foreign-born and Swiss patients. Smoking cessation counselling by a doctor was only given to a minority of patients, but such counselling seemed irrespective of nationality.

Ethics Outside, Within, or Beyond OR Models

Since ethical concerns are calling for more attention within Operational Research, we present three approaches to combine Operational Research models with ethics. Our intention is to clarify the trade-offs faced by the OR community, in particular the tension between the scientific legitimacy of OR models (ethics outside OR models) and the integration of ethics within models (ethics within OR models). Presenting and discussing an approach that combines OR models with the process of OR (ethics beyond OR models), we suggest rigorous ways to express the relation between ethics and OR models. As our work is exploratory, we are trying to avoid a dogmatic attitude and call for further research. We argue that there are interesting avenues for research at the theoretical, methodological and applied levels and that the OR community can contribute to an innovative, constructive and responsible social dialogue about its ethics.

Error and attack tolerance of layered complex networks.

Many complex systems may be described by not one but a number of complex networks mapped on each other in a multi-layer structure. Because of the interactions and dependencies between these layers, the state of a single layer does not necessarily reflect well the state of the entire system. In this paper we study the robustness of five examples of two-layer complex systems: three real-life data sets in the fields of communication (the Internet), transportation (the European railway system), and biology (the human brain), and two models based on random graphs. In order to cover the whole range of features specific to these systems, we focus on two extreme policies of system's response to failures, no rerouting and full rerouting. Our main finding is that multi-layer systems are much more vulnerable to errors and intentional attacks than they appear from a single layer perspective.

Lessons learned from developing a national NCD programme in low- and middle-income countries (Seychelles)

This paper identifies selected issues and lessons learned from the implementation of a national program of prevention and control of non-communicable diseases (NCD) during the past 20 years in the Seychelles, a small island state in the African region. As early as in 1989, population-based surveys demonstrated high levels of several cardiovascular risk factors, which prompted an organized response by the government. The early creation of a NCD unit within the Ministry of Health, coupled with cooperation with international partners, enabled incremental capacity building and coherent development of NCD programs and policy. Information campaigns and screening for hypertension and diabetes in work/public places raised awareness and rallied increasingly broad awareness and support to NCD prevention and control. A variety of interventions were organized for tobacco control and comprehensive tobacco control legislation was enacted in 2009 (including total bans on tobacco advertising and on smoking in all enclosed public and work places). A recent School Nutrition Policy prohibits the sale of soft drinks in schools. At primary health care level, guidelines were developed for the management of hypertension and diabetes (these conditions are managed in all health centers within a national health system); regular interactive education sessions were organized for groups of high risk patients ("heart health club"); and specialized "NCD nurses" were trained. Decreasing prevalence of smoking is evidence of success, but the raising "diabesity epidemic" calls for strengthened health care to high-risk patients and broader multisectoral policy to mould an environment conducive to healthy behaviors. Key components of NCD prevention and control in Seychelles include effective surveillance mechanisms supplemented by focused research; generating broad interest and consensus on the need for prevention and control of NCD; mobilizing leadership and commitment at all levels; involving local and international expertise; building on existing efforts; and seeking integrated, multi-disciplinary and multisectoral approaches.

TBS (trabecular bone score) and diabetes-related fracture risk.

CONTEXT: Type 2 diabetes is associated with increased fracture risk but paradoxically greater bone mineral density (BMD). Trabecular bone score (TBS) is derived from the texture of the spine dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image and is related to bone microarchitecture and fracture risk, providing information independent of BMD. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated the ability of lumbar spine TBS to account for increased fracture risk in diabetes. DESIGN AND SETTING: We performed a retrospective cohort study using BMD results from a large clinical registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada. Patients: We included 29,407 women 50 years old and older with baseline DXA examinations, among whom 2356 had diagnosed diabetes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lumbar spine TBS was derived for each spine DXA examination blinded to clinical parameters and outcomes. Health service records were assessed for incident nontraumatic major osteoporotic fractures (mean follow-up 4.7 years). RESULTS: Diabetes was associated with higher BMD at all sites but lower lumbar spine TBS in unadjusted and adjusted models (all P < .001). The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for a measurement in the lowest vs the highest tertile was less than 1 for BMD (all P < .001) but was increased for lumbar spine TBS [aOR 2.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.30-2.97]. Major osteoporotic fractures were identified in 175 women (7.4%) with and 1493 (5.5%) without diabetes (P < .001). Lumbar spine TBS was a BMD-independent predictor of fracture and predicted fractures in those with diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio 1.27, 95% CI 1.10-1.46) and without diabetes (hazard ratio 1.31, 95% CI 1.24-1.38). The effect of diabetes on fracture was reduced when lumbar spine TBS was added to a prediction model but was paradoxically increased from adding BMD measurements. CONCLUSIONS: Lumbar spine TBS predicts osteoporotic fractures in those with diabetes, and captures a larger portion of the diabetes-associated fracture risk than BMD.

Nucleation and growth of metamorphic minerals in contact aureoles

THESIS ABSTRACT Nucleation and growth of metamorphic minerals are the consequence of changing P-T-X-conditions. The thesis presented here focuses on processes governing nucleation and growth of minerals in contact metamorphic environments using a combination of geochemical analytics (chemical-, isotope-, and trace element composition), statistical treatments of spatial data, and numerical models. It is shown, that a combination of textural modeling and stable isotope analysis allows a distinction between several possible reaction paths for olivine growth in a siliceous dolomite contact aureole. It is suggested that olivine forms directly from dolomite and quartz. The formation of olivine from this metastable reaction implies metamorphic crystallization far from equilibrium. As a major consequence, the spatial distribution of metamorphic mineral assemblages in a contact aureole cannot be interpreted as a proxy for the temporal evolution of a single rock specimen, because each rock undergoes a different reaction path, depending on temperature, heating rate, and fluid-infiltration rate. A detailed calcite-dolomite thermometry study was initiated on multiple scales ranging from aureole scale to the size of individual crystals. Quantitative forward models were developed to evaluate the effect of growth zoning, volume diffusion and the formation of submicroscopic exsolution lamellae (<1 µm) on the measured Mg-distribution in individual calcite crystals and compare the modeling results to field data. This study concludes that Mg-distributions in calcite grains of the Ubehebe Peak contact aureole are the consequence of rapid crystal growth in combination with diffusion and exsolution. The crystallization history of a rock is recorded in the chemical composition, the size and the distribution of its minerals. Near the Cima Uzza summit, located in the southern Adamello massif (Italy), contact metamorphic brucite bearing dolomite marbles are exposed as xenoliths surrounded by mafic intrusive rocks. Brucite is formed retrograde pseudomorphing spherical periclase crystals. Crystal size distributions (CSD's) of brucite pseudomorphs are presented for two profiles and combined with geochemistry data and petrological information. Textural analyses are combined with geochemistry data in a qualitative model that describes the formation periclase. As a major outcome, this expands the potential use of CSD's to systems of mineral formation driven by fluid-infiltration. RESUME DE LA THESE La nucléation et la croissance des minéraux métamorphiques sont la conséquence de changements des conditions de pression, température et composition chimique du système (PT-X). Cette thèse s'intéresse aux processus gouvernant la nucléation et la croissance des minéraux au cours d'un épisode de métamorphisme de contact, en utilisant la géochimie analytique (composition chimique, isotopique et en éléments traces), le traitement statistique des données spatiales et la modélisation numérique. Il est montré que la combinaison d'un modèle textural avec des analyses en isotopes stables permet de distinguer plusieurs chemins de réactions possibles conduisant à la croissance de l'olivine dans une auréole de contact riche en Silice et dolomite. Il est suggéré que l'olivine se forme directement à partir de la dolomie et du quartz. Cette réaction métastable de formation de l'olivine implique une cristallisation métamorphique loin de l'équilibre. La principale conséquence est que la distribution spatiale des assemblages de minéraux métamorphiques dans une auréole de contact ne peut pas être considérée comme un témoin de l'évolution temporelle d'un type de roche donné, puisque chaque type de roche suit différents chemins de réactions, en fonction de la température, la vitesse de réchauffement et le taux d'infiltration du fluide. Une étude thermométrique calcite-dolomite détaillée a été réalisée à diverses échelles, depuis l'échelle de l'auréole de contact jusqu'à l'échelle du cristal. Des modèles numériques quantitatifs ont été développés pour évaluer l'effet des zonations de croissance, de la diffusion volumique et de la formation de lamelles d'exsolution submicroscopiques (<1µm) sur la distribution du magnésium mesuré dans des cristaux de calcite individuels. Les résultats de ce modèle ont été comparés ä des échantillons naturels. Cette étude montre que la distribution du Mg dans les grains de calcite de l'auréole de contact de l'Ubehebe Peak (USA) résulte d'une croissance cristalline rapide, associée aux processus de diffusion et d'exsolution. L'histoire de cristallisation d'une roche est enregistrée dans la composition chimique, la taille et la distribution de ses minéraux. Près du sommet Cima Uzza situé au sud du massif d'Adamello (Italie), des marbres dolomitiques à brucite du métamorphisme de contact forment des xénolithes dans une intrusion mafique. La brucite constitue des pseudomorphes rétrogrades du périclase. Les distributions de taille des cristaux (CSD) des pseudomorphes de brucite sont présentées pour deux profiles et sont combinées aux données géochimiques et pétrologiques. Les analyses textorales sont combinées aux données géochimiques dans un modèle qualitatif qui décrit la formation du périclase. Ceci élargit l'utilisation potentielle de la C5D aux systèmes de formation de minéraux controlés par les infiltrations fluides. THESIS ABSTRACT (GENERAL PUBLIC) Rock textures are essentially the result of a complex interaction of nucleation, growth and deformation as a function of changing physical conditions such as pressure and temperature. Igneous and metamorphic textures are especially attractive to study the different mechanisms of texture formation since most of the parameters like pressure-temperature-paths are quite well known for a variety of geological settings. The fact that textures are supposed to record the crystallization history of a rock traditionally allowed them to be used for geothermobarometry or dating. During the last decades the focus of metamorphic petrology changed from a static point of view, i.e. the representation of a texture as one single point in the petrogenetic grid towards a more dynamic view, where multiple metamorphic processes govern the texture formation, including non-equilibrium processes. This thesis tries to advance our understanding on the processes governing nucleation and growth of minerals in contact metamorphic environments and their dynamic interplay by using a combination of geochemical analyses (chemical-, isotope-, and trace element composition), statistical treatments of spatial data and numerical models. In a first part the thesis describes the formation of metamorphic olivine porphyroblast in the Ubehebe Peak contact aureole (USA). It is shown that not the commonly assumed succession of equilibrium reactions along a T-t-path formed the textures present in the rocks today, but rather the presence of a meta-stable reaction is responsible for forming the olivine porphyroblast. Consequently, the spatial distribution of metamorphic minerals within a contact aureole can no longer be regarded as a proxy for the temporal evolution of a single rock sample. Metamorphic peak temperatures for samples of the Ubehebe Peak contact aureole were determined using calcite-dolomite. This geothermometer is based on the temperature-dependent exchange of Mg between calcite and dolomite. The purpose of the second part of this thesis was to explain the interfering systematic scatter of measured Mg-content on different scales and thus to clarify the interpretation of metamorphic temperatures recorded in carbonates. Numerical quantitative forward models are used to evaluate the effect of several processes on the distribution of magnesium in individual calcite crystals and the modeling results were then compared to measured field. Information about the crystallization history is not only recorded in the chemical composition of grains, like isotope composition or mineral zoning. Crystal size distributions (CSD's) provide essential information about the complex interaction of nucleation and growth of minerals. CSD's of brucite pseudomorphs formed retrograde after periclase of the southern Adamello massif (Italy) are presented. A combination of the textural 3D-information with geochemistry data is then used to evaluate reaction kinetics and to constrain the actual reaction mechanism for the formation of periclase. The reaction is shown to be the consequence of the infiltration of a limited amount of a fluid phase at high temperatures. The composition of this fluid phase is in large disequilibrium with the rest of the rock resulting in very fast reaction rates. RESUME DE LA THESE POUR LE GRAND PUBLIC: La texture d'une roche résulte de l'interaction complexe entre les processus de nucléation, croissance et déformation, en fonction des variations de conditions physiques telles que la pression et la température. Les textures ignées et métamorphiques présentent un intérêt particulier pour l'étude des différents mécanismes à l'origine de ces textures, puisque la plupart des paramètres comme les chemin pression-température sont relativement bien contraints dans la plupart des environnements géologiques. Le fait que les textures soient supposées enregistrer l'histoire de cristallisation des roches permet leur utilisation pour la datation et la géothermobarométrie. Durant les dernières décennies, la recherche en pétrologie métamorphique a évolué depuis une visualisation statique, c'est-à-dire qu'une texture donnée correspondait à un point unique de la grille pétrogénétique, jusqu'à une visualisation plus dynamique, où les multiples processus métamorphiques qui gouvernent 1a formation d'une texture incluent des processus hors équilibre. Cette thèse a pour but d'améliorer les connaissances actuelles sur les processus gouvernant la nucléation et la croissance des minéraux lors d'épisodes de métamorphisme de contact et l'interaction dynamique existant entre nucléation et croissance. Pour cela, les analyses géochimiques (compositions chimiques en éléments majeurs et traces et composition isotopique), le traitement statistique des données spatiales et la modélisation numérique ont été combinés. Dans la première partie, cette thèse décrit la formation de porphyroblastes d'olivine métamorphique dans l'auréole de contact de l'Ubehebe Peak (USA). Il est montré que la succession généralement admise des réactions d'équilibre le long d'un chemin T-t ne peut pas expliquer les textures présentes dans les roches aujourd'hui. Cette thèse montre qu'il s'agirait plutôt d'une réaction métastable qui soit responsable de la formation des porphyroblastes d'olivine. En conséquence, la distribution spatiale des minéraux métamorphiques dans l'auréole de contact ne peut plus être interprétée comme le témoin de l'évolution temporelle d'un échantillon unique de roche. Les pics de température des échantillons de l'auréole de contact de l'Ubehebe Peak ont été déterminés grâce au géothermomètre calcite-dolomite. Celui-ci est basé sur l'échange du magnésium entre la calcite et la dolomite, qui est fonction de la température. Le but de la deuxième partie de cette thèse est d'expliquer la dispersion systématique de la composition en magnésium à différentes échelles, et ainsi d'améliorer l'interprétation des températures du métamorphisme enregistrées dans les carbonates. Des modèles numériques quantitatifs ont permis d'évaluer le rôle de différents processus sur la distribution du magnésium dans des cristaux de calcite individuels. Les résultats des modèles ont été comparés aux échantillons naturels. La composition chimique des grains, comme la composition isotopique ou la zonation minérale, n'est pas le seul témoin de l'histoire de la cristallisation. La distribution de la taille des cristaux (CSD) fournit des informations essentielles sur les interactions entre nucléation et croissance des minéraux. La CSD des pseudomorphes de brucite retrograde formés après le périclase dans le sud du massif Adamello (Italie) est présentée dans la troisième partie. La combinaison entre les données textorales en trois dimensions et les données géochimiques a permis d'évaluer les cinétiques de réaction et de contraindre les mécanismes conduisant à la formation du périclase. Cette réaction est présentée comme étant la conséquence de l'infiltration d'une quantité limitée d'une phase fluide à haute température. La composition de cette phase fluide est en grand déséquilibre avec le reste de la roche, ce qui permet des cinétiques de réactions très rapides.

Perception of the damaging effects of smoking, and brief cessation counselling by doctors.

An open prospective study was conducted among the patients visiting an urban medical policlinic for the first time without an appointment to assess whether the immigrants (who represent more than half of our patients) are aware of the health effects of smoking, whether the level of acculturation influences knowledge, and whether doctors give similar advice to Swiss and foreign smokers. 226 smokers, 105 Swiss (46.5%), and 121 foreign-born (53.5%), participated in the study. 32.2% (95% CI [24.4%; 41.1%]) of migrants and 9.6% [5.3%; 16.8%] of Swiss patients were not aware of negative effects of smoking. After adjustment for age, the multivariate model showed that the estimated odds of "ignorance of health effects of smoking" was higher for people lacking mastery of the local language compared with those mastering it (odds ratio (OR) = 7.5 [3.6; 15.8], p < 0.001), and higher for men (OR = 4.3 [1.9; 10.0], p < 0.001). Advice to stop smoking was given with similar frequency to immigrants (31.9% [24.2%; 40.8%] and Swiss patients (29.0% [21.0%; 38.5%]). Nonintegrated patients did not appear to receive less counselling than integrated patients (OR = 1.1 [0.6; 2.1], p = 0.812). We conclude that the level of knowledge among male immigrants not integrated or unable to speak the local language is lower than among integrated foreign-born and Swiss patients. Smoking cessation counselling by a doctor was only given to a minority of patients, but such counselling seemed irrespective of nationality.

Take-the-best and other simple strategies: Why and when they work 'well' in binary choice

The effectiveness of decision rules depends on characteristics of bothrules and environments. A theoretical analysis of environments specifiesthe relative predictive accuracies of the lexicographic rule 'take-the-best'(TTB) and other simple strategies for binary choice. We identify threefactors: how the environment weights variables; characteristics of choicesets; and error. For cases involving from three to five binary cues, TTBis effective across many environments. However, hybrids of equal weights(EW) and TTB models are more effective as environments become morecompensatory. In the presence of error, TTB and similar models do not predictmuch better than a naïve model that exploits dominance. We emphasizepsychological implications and the need for more complete theories of theenvironment that include the role of error.

Ethics outside, within or beyond OR models

Since ethical concerns are calling for more attention within OperationalResearch, we present three approaches to combine Operational Researchmodels with ethics. Our intention is to clarify the trade-offs faced bythe OR community, in particular the tension between the scientificlegitimacy of OR models (ethics outside OR models) and the integrationof ethics within models (ethics within OR models). Presenting anddiscussing an approach that combines OR models with the process of OR(ethics beyond OR models), we suggest rigorous ways to express the relationbetween ethics and OR models. As our work is exploratory, we are trying toavoid a dogmatic attitude and call for further research. We argue thatthere are interesting avenues for research at the theoretical,methodological and applied levels and that the OR community can contributeto an innovative, constructive and responsible social dialogue about itsethics.

A test of the predictive validity of non-linear QALY models using time trade-off utilities

This paper presents a test of the predictive validity of various classes ofQALY models (i.e., linear, power and exponential models). We first estimatedTTO utilities for 43 EQ-5D chronic health states and next these states wereembedded in health profiles. The chronic TTO utilities were then used topredict the responses to TTO questions with health profiles. We find that thepower QALY model clearly outperforms linear and exponential QALY models.Optimal power coefficient is 0.65. Our results suggest that TTO-based QALYcalculations may be biased. This bias can be avoided using a power QALY model.