903 resultados para inductive inference


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Australian airports have emerged as important urban activity centres over the past decade as a result of privatisation. A range of reciprocal airport and regional impacts now pose considerable challenges for both airport operation and the surrounding urban and regional environment. The airport can no longer be managed solely as a specialised transport entity in isolation from the metropolis that it serves. In 2007 a multidisciplinary Australian Research Council Linkage Project (LP 0775225) was funded to investigate the changing role of airports in Australia. This thesis is but one component of this collaborative research effort. Here the issues surrounding the policy and practice of airport and regional land use planning are explored, analysed and detailed. This research, for the first time, assembles a distinct progression of the wider social, economic, technological and environmental roles of the airport within the Australian airport literature from 1914 – 2011. It recognises that while the list of airport and regional impacts has grown through time, treatment within practice and the literature has largely remained highly specialised and contained within disciplinary paradigms. The first publication of the thesis (Chapter 2) acknowledges that the changing role of airports demands the establishment of new models of airport planning and development. It argues that practice and research requires a better understanding of the reciprocal impacts of airports and their urban catchments. The second publication (Chapter 3) highlights that there is ad hoc examination and media attention of high profile airport and regional conflict, but little empirical analysis or understanding of the extent to which all privatised Australian airports are intending to develop. The conceptual and methodological significance of this research is the development of a national land use classification system for on-airport development. This paper establishes the extent of on-airport development in Australia, providing insight into the changing land use and economic roles of privatised airports. The third publication (Chapter 4) details new and significant interdependencies for airport and regional development in consideration of the progression of airports as activity centres. Here the model of an ‘airport metropolis’ is offered as an organising device and theoretical contribution for comprehending the complexity and planning of airport and regional development. It delivers a conceptual framework for both research and policy, which acknowledges the reciprocal impacts of economic development, land use, infrastructure and governance ‘interfaces’. In a timely and significant concurrence with this research the Australian Government announced and delivered a National Aviation Policy Review (2008 – 2009). As such the fourth publication (Chapter 5) focuses on the airport and urban planning aspects of the review. This paper also highlights the overall policy intention of facilitating broader airport and regional collaborative processes. This communicative turn in airport policy is significant in light of the communicative theoretical framework of the thesis. The fifth paper of the thesis (Chapter 6) examines three Australian case studies (Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra) to detail the context of airport and regional land use planning and to apply the airport metropolis model as a framework for research. Through the use of Land Use Forums, over 120 airport and regional stakeholders are brought together to detail their perspectives and interactions with airport and regional land use planning. An inductive thematic analysis of the results identifies three significant themes which contribute to the fragmentation of airport and regional and land use planning: 1) inadequate coordination and disjointed decision-making; 2) current legislative and policy frameworks; and 3) competing stakeholder priorities and interests. Building on this new knowledge, Chapter 7 details the perceptions of airport and local, state and territory government stakeholders to land use relationships, processes and outcomes. A series of semi-structured interviews are undertaken in each of the case studies to inform this research. The potential implications for ongoing communicative practice are discussed in conclusion. The following thesis represents an incremental and cumulative research process which delivers new knowledge for the practical understanding and research interpretation of airport and regional land use planning practice and policy. It has developed and applied a robust conceptual framework which delivers significant direction for all stakeholders to better comprehend the relevance of airports in the urban character and design of our cities.

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This thesis is a qualitative study aimed at better capturing the complexity of conflict in family businesses. An inductive content analysis revealed two important issues: the dynamics of intergenerational conflicts and the escalation process of conflicts. The results demonstrated that conflicts are more likely to be intergenerational than intra-generational due to the role of senior members in daily business operations, generational differences, and a perception gap that exist between generations concerning each other’s competencies in doing the business. Furthermore, the set of factors contributing to conflict escalation is related to how family members handle the conflict, how they manage their emotions, and how they are able to avoid non-family employee involvement. These findings provide a foundation for taking preventative actions, implementing strategies for managing conflicts or devising effective solutions for resolving conflicts before they become more destructive.

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Currently there are ~3000 known species of Sarcophagidae (Diptera), which are classified into 173 genera in three subfamilies. Almost 25% of sarcophagids belong to the genus Sarcophaga (sensu lato) however little is known about the validity of, and relationships between the ~150 (or more) subgenera of Sarcophaga s.l. In this preliminary study, we evaluated the usefulness of three sources of data for resolving relationships between 35 species from 14 Sarcophaga s.l. subgenera: the mitochondrial COI barcode region, ~800. bp of the nuclear gene CAD, and 110 morphological characters. Bayesian, maximum likelihood (ML) and maximum parsimony (MP) analyses were performed on the combined dataset. Much of the tree was only supported by the Bayesian and ML analyses, with the MP tree poorly resolved. The genus Sarcophaga s.l. was resolved as monophyletic in both the Bayesian and ML analyses and strong support was obtained at the species-level. Notably, the only subgenus consistently resolved as monophyletic was Liopygia. The monophyly of and relationships between the remaining Sarcophaga s.l. subgenera sampled remain questionable. We suggest that future phylogenetic studies on the genus Sarcophaga s.l. use combined datasets for analyses. We also advocate the use of additional data and a range of inference strategies to assist with resolving relationships within Sarcophaga s.l.

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We have previously reported a preliminary taxonomy of patient error. However, approaches to managing patients' contribution to error have received little attention in the literature. This paper aims to assess how patients and primary care professionals perceive the relative importance of different patient errors as a threat to patient safety. It also attempts to suggest what these groups believe may be done to reduce the errors, and how. It addresses these aims through original research that extends the nominal group analysis used to generate the error taxonomy. Interviews were conducted with 11 purposively selected groups of patients and primary care professionals in Auckland, New Zealand, during late 2007. The total number of participants was 83, including 64 patients. Each group ranked the importance of possible patient errors identified through the nominal group exercise. Approaches to managing the most important errors were then discussed. There was considerable variation among the groups in the importance rankings of the errors. Our general inductive analysis of participants' suggestions revealed the content of four inter-related actions to manage patient error: Grow relationships; Enable patients and professionals to recognise and manage patient error; be Responsive to their shared capacity for change; and Motivate them to act together for patient safety. Cultivation of this GERM of safe care was suggested to benefit from 'individualised community care'. In this approach, primary care professionals individualise, in community spaces, population health messages about patient safety events. This approach may help to reduce patient error and the tension between personal and population health-care.

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Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) has enormous potential to improve the accuracy of treatment delivery in image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT). To assist radiotherapists in interpreting these images, we use a Bayesian statistical model to label each voxel according to its tissue type. The rich sources of prior information in IGRT are incorporated into a hidden Markov random field model of the 3D image lattice. Tissue densities in the reference CT scan are estimated using inverse regression and then rescaled to approximate the corresponding CBCT intensity values. The treatment planning contours are combined with published studies of physiological variability to produce a spatial prior distribution for changes in the size, shape and position of the tumour volume and organs at risk. The voxel labels are estimated using iterated conditional modes. The accuracy of the method has been evaluated using 27 CBCT scans of an electron density phantom. The mean voxel-wise misclassification rate was 6.2\%, with Dice similarity coefficient of 0.73 for liver, muscle, breast and adipose tissue. By incorporating prior information, we are able to successfully segment CBCT images. This could be a viable approach for automated, online image analysis in radiotherapy.

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Background: To report the incidence and risk factors for hypotony and estimate the risk of sympathetic ophthalmia following diode laser trans-scleral cyclophotocoagulation (TSCPC). Design: Retrospective study using data from a private tertiary glaucoma clinic and review of the literature. Participants: Seventy eyes of 70 patients with refractory glaucoma who received TSCPC treatment. Methods: Review of the records of consecutive patients who underwent TSCPC by a single ophthalmic surgeon and review of the literature. Main Outcome Measures: Hypotony (including phthisis bulbi), sympathetic ophthalmia. Results: Seven eyes (10%; CI 5-19%) developed hypotony and included 4 eyes that developed phthisis. Higher total energy delivered during TSCPC treatment was associated with an increased risk of hypotony: eyes that developed hypotony received a mean total energy of 192.5 ± 73.2 joules, compared to a mean of 152.9 ± 83.2 joules in hypotony-free cases. The difference in mean energy delivered between the hypotony and non-hypotony group was 38.53 (95% CI: -27.57 to 104.63). The risk of sympathetic ophthalmia estimated from a review of the published literature and current series was one in 1512, or 0.07% (CI 0.03% - 0.17%). Conclusions: Total laser energy is one of several risk factors that act in a sufficient component cause-model to produce hypotony in an individual patient. The small sample size precluded inference for other individual putative risk factors but titrating laser energy may help decrease the occurrence of hypotony. The risk of sympathetic ophthalmia calculated from the literature is likely an overestimate caused by publication bias.

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Purpose In Saudi Arabia, the health system is mainly staffed by expatriate nurses from different cultural and linguistic backgrounds. Given the potential risks this situation poses for patient care, it is important to understand how cultural diversity can be effectively managed in this multicultural environment. The purpose of this study was to explore notions of cultural competence with non-Saudi Arabian nurses working in a major hospital in Saudi Arabia. Design Face-to-face, audio-recorded, semistructured interviews were conducted with 24 non-Saudi Arabian nurses. Deductive data collection and analysis were undertaken drawing on Campinha-Bacote’s cultural competence model. The data that could not be explained by this model were coded and analyzed inductively. Findings Nurses within this culturally diverse environment struggled with the notion of cultural competence in terms of each other’s cultural expectations and those of the dominant Saudi culture. Discussion The study also addressed the limitations of Campinha-Bacote’s model, which did not account for all of the nurses’ experiences. Subsequent inductive analysis yielded important themes that more fully explained the nurses’ experiences in this environment. Implications for Practice The findings can inform policy, professional education, and practice in the multicultural Saudi setting.

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c-axis-oriented YBa2Cu3O7-x (YBCO) thin films were laser deposited on (001) yttria-stabilized ZrO2 (YSZ) substrates with different surface morphologies. The in-plane orientation of the films on smooth substrates was sensitive to the deposition conditions, often resulting in mixed orientations. However, a strongly dominating [110] YBCO//[110]YSZ orientation was obtained at a deposition temperature of 770°C. Films on substrates with surface steps, induced by depositing a homoepitaxial buffer layer or by thermally annealing the substrate, had a [110]YBCO//[100]YSZ orientation when deposited at the same temperature. It was concluded that the [110]YBCO//[100] YSZ orientation was promoted by a graphoepitaxial mechanism. Films prepared under identical conditions on smooth and stepped substrates grew with extended c axes on the former. It is proposed that the extension can be induced by disorder, invoked by a low oxygen pressure and a low density of adsorption sites. The disorder may be eliminated by either an increase of the oxygen pressure or an increase of the density of adsorption sites in the form of steps. The film microstructure influenced the microwave surface resistance, which was similar for films with one exclusive in-plane orientation and higher for films with mixed orientations. The films on the stepped surfaces had superior superconducting properties; inductive measurements gave a Tc onset of 88 K, a ΔT(90%-10%) c of 0.2 K, and the transport jc was 1.5×106 A/cm2 at 83 K, for films on substrates with homoepitaxial buffer layers.

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In the past fifteen years, increasing attention has been given to the role of Vocational Education and Training (VET) in attracting large numbers of international students and its contribution to the economic development of Australia. This trend has given rise to many challenges in vocational education, especially with regard to providing quality education that ensures international students' stay in Australia is a satisfactory experience. Teaching and learning is continuously scrutinized, teaching quality and student assessment are subject to regular audit (Takerei, 2010). VET teachers are key stakeholders in international education and share responsibility for ensuring international students gain quality learning experiences and positive outcomes, however, their experiences are generally not well understood. Therefore, this thesis, investigates particular challenges and associated dilemmas that VET teachers experience when teaching international students. The research participants were 15 teachers from several public and private VET institutions in Brisbane, Australia. The method involved responsive interviewing and inductive data analysis to identify and categorize teachers' challenges and dilemmas. The research reveals qualitatively different ways in which the 15 VET educators experienced challenges and associated dilemmas in their culturally diverse teaching context. The research shows that VET teachers experience numerous challenges and various inter-related professional, educational and personal dilemmas. These dilemmas result from ethical tensions teachers experience in their interactions with international students, teaching colleagues and their employment institutions. The dilemmas are often influenced by current economic and political conditions of international education. The dilemmas raised in the study by 15 VET teachers might be familiar to other teachers in VET and universities but to date they have received limited attention by researchers. This study's findings indicate significant implications for VET teachers, students, VET institutions and the government at a time of rapid economic, political, cultural and educational change. The findings are of potential interest to VET policy makers, managers and teachers. By giving voice to VET teachers, who are key stakeholders in the sustainability and future growth of VET, they contribute evidence for ongoing review and development of quality learning and teaching in the culturally diverse VET sector.

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Countless studies have stressed the importance of social identity, particularly its role in various organizational outcomes, yet questions remain as to how identities initially develop, shift and change based on the configuration of multiple, pluralistic relationships grounded in an organizational setting. The interactive model of social identity formation has been proposed recently to explain the internalization of shared norms and values – critical in identity formation – has not received empirical examination. We analyzed multiple sources of data from nine nuclear professionals over three years to understand the construction of social identity in new entrants entering an organization. Informed by our data analyses, we found support for the interactive model and that age and level of experience influenced whether they undertook an inductive or deductive route of the group norm and value internalization. This study represents an important contribution to the study of social identity and the process by which identities are formed, particularly under conditions of duress or significant organizational disruption.

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In the past fifteen years, increasing attention has been given to the role of Vocational Education and Training (VET) in attracting large numbers of international students and its contribution to the economic development of Australia. This trend has given rise to many challenges in vocational education, especially with regard to providing quality education that ensures international students stay in Australia is a satisfactory experience. Teaching and learning are continuously scrutinised, and teaching quality and student assessment are subject to regular audit (Takerei, 2010). VET teachers are key stakeholders in international education and share responsibility for ensuring international students gain quality learning experiences and positive outcomes; however, their experiences are generally not well understood. Therefore, this paper reports on a study which responded to this research gap and investigated particular challenges that VET teachers experience when teaching international students. The research participants were 15 teachers from several public and private VET institutions in Brisbane, Australia. The method involved responsive interviewing and inductive data analysis to identify and categorize teachers’ challenges and dilemmas. After briefly outlining the background of the research approach, this paper presents findings about challenges that VET teachers’ experienced while teaching international students. The aim of the paper is to explore VET teachers’ perspectives in order to contribute essential understandings that contribute to a holistic approach to vocational education of international students. It reveals that the teachers experienced challenges of three main types: professional, personal and educational.

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Ever since sodium fluorescein (‘fluorescein’ [FL]) was first used to investigate the ocular surface over a century ago, the term ‘staining’ has been taken to mean the presence of ocular surface fluorescence [1]. This term has not been necessarily taken to infer any particular mechanism of causation, and indeed, can be attributed to a variety of possible aetiologies [2]. In recent times, there has been considerable interest in a form of ocular surface fluorescence seen in association with the use of certain combinations of soft contact lenses and multipurpose solutions. The first clinical account of this phenomenon was reported by Jones et al. [3], which was followed by a more formal investigation by the same author in 2002 [4]. Jones et al described this appearance as a ‘classic solution-based toxicity reaction’. Subsequently, this appearance has come to be known as ‘solution-induced corneal staining’ or more recently by the acronym ‘SICS’ [5]. The term SICS is potentially problematic in that from a cell biology point of view, there is an inference that ‘staining’ means the entry of a dye into corneal epithelial cells. Morgan and Maldonado-Codina [2] noted there was no foundation of solid scientific literature underpinning our understanding of the true basic causative mechanisms of this phenomenon; since that time, further work has been published in this field [6] and [7] but questions still remain about the precise aetiology of this phenomenon...

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Many model-based investigation techniques, such as sensitivity analysis, optimization, and statistical inference, require a large number of model evaluations to be performed at different input and/or parameter values. This limits the application of these techniques to models that can be implemented in computationally efficient computer codes. Emulators, by providing efficient interpolation between outputs of deterministic simulation models, can considerably extend the field of applicability of such computationally demanding techniques. So far, the dominant techniques for developing emulators have been priors in the form of Gaussian stochastic processes (GASP) that were conditioned with a design data set of inputs and corresponding model outputs. In the context of dynamic models, this approach has two essential disadvantages: (i) these emulators do not consider our knowledge of the structure of the model, and (ii) they run into numerical difficulties if there are a large number of closely spaced input points as is often the case in the time dimension of dynamic models. To address both of these problems, a new concept of developing emulators for dynamic models is proposed. This concept is based on a prior that combines a simplified linear state space model of the temporal evolution of the dynamic model with Gaussian stochastic processes for the innovation terms as functions of model parameters and/or inputs. These innovation terms are intended to correct the error of the linear model at each output step. Conditioning this prior to the design data set is done by Kalman smoothing. This leads to an efficient emulator that, due to the consideration of our knowledge about dominant mechanisms built into the simulation model, can be expected to outperform purely statistical emulators at least in cases in which the design data set is small. The feasibility and potential difficulties of the proposed approach are demonstrated by the application to a simple hydrological model.

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An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

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We present a novel approach for developing summary statistics for use in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithms using indirect infer- ence. We embed this approach within a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that is completely adaptive. This methodological development was motivated by an application involving data on macroparasite population evolution modelled with a trivariate Markov process. The main objective of the analysis is to compare inferences on the Markov process when considering two di®erent indirect mod- els. The two indirect models are based on a Beta-Binomial model and a three component mixture of Binomials, with the former providing a better ¯t to the observed data.