885 resultados para increase in risk


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Every year, flash floods cause economic losses and major problems for undertaking daily activity in the Catalonia region (NE Spain). Sometimes catastrophic damage and casualties occur. When a long term analysis of floods is undertaken, a question arises regarding the changing role of the vulnerability and the hazard in risk evolution. This paper sets out to give some information to deal with this question, on the basis of analysis of all the floods that have occurred in Barcelona county (Catalonia) since the 14th century, as well as the flooded area, urban evolution, impacts and the weather conditions for any of most severe events. With this objective, the identification and classification of historical floods, and characterisation of flash-floods among these, have been undertaken. Besides this, the main meteorological factors associated with recent flash floods in this city and neighbouring regions are well-known. On the other hand, the identification of rainfall trends that could explain the historical evolution of flood hazard occurrence in this city has been analysed. Finally, identification of the influence of urban development on the vulnerability to floods has been carried out. Barcelona city has been selected thanks to its long continuous data series (daily rainfall data series, since 1854; one of the longest rainfall rate series of Europe, since 1921) and for the accurate historical archive information that is available (since the Roman Empire for the urban evolution). The evolution of flood occurrence shows the existence of oscillations in the earlier and later modern-age periods that can be attributed to climatic variability, evolution of the perception threshold and changes in vulnerability. A great increase of vulnerability can be assumed for the period 1850¿1900. The analysis of the time evolution for the Barcelona rainfall series (1854¿2000) shows that no trend exists, although, due to changes in urban planning, flash-floods impact has altered over this time. The number of catastrophic flash floods has diminished, although the extraordinary ones have increased.

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Introduction.- Knowledge of predictors of an unfavourable outcome, e.g. non-return to work after an injury enables to identify patients at risk and to target interventions for modifiable predictors. It has been recently shown that INTERMED; a tool to measure biopsychosocial complexity in four domains (biologic, psychologic, social and care, with a score between 0-60 points) can be useful in this context. The aim of this study was to set up a predictive model for non-return to work using INTERMED in patients in vocational rehabilitation after orthopaedic injury.Patients and methods.- In this longitudinal prospective study, the cohort consisted of 2156 consecutively included inpatients with orthopaedic trauma attending a rehabilitation hospital after a work, traffic or sport related injury. Two years after discharge, a questionnaire regarding return to work was sent (1502 returned their questionnaires). In addition to INTERMED, 18 predictors known at baseline of the rehabilitation were selected based on previous research. A multivariable logistic regression was performed.Results.- In the multivariate model, not-returning to work at 2 years was significantly predicted by the INTERMED: odds-ratio (OR) 1.08 (95% confidence interval, CI [1.06; 1.11]) for a one point increase in scale; by qualified work-status before the injury OR = 0.74, CI (0.54; 0.99), by using French as preferred language OR = 0.60, CI (0.45; 0.80), by upper-extremity injury OR = 1.37, CI (1.03; 1.81), by higher education (> 9 years) OR = 0.74, CI (0.55; 1.00), and by a 10 year increase in age OR = 1.15, CI (1.02; 1.29). The area under the receiver-operator-characteristics curve (ROC)-curve was 0.733 for the full model (INTERMED plus 18 variables).Discussion.- These results confirm that the total score of the INTERMED is a significant predictor for return to work. The full model with 18 predictors combined with the total score of INTERMED has good predictive value. However, the number of variables (19) to measure is high for the use as screening tool in a clinic.

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BACKGROUND: Because traditional nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs are associated with increased risk for acute cardiovascular events, current guidelines recommend acetaminophen as the first-line analgesic of choice on the assumption of its greater cardiovascular safety. Data from randomized clinical trials prospectively addressing cardiovascular safety of acetaminophen, however, are still lacking, particularly in patients at increased cardiovascular risk. Hence, the aim of this study was to evaluate the safety of acetaminophen in patients with coronary artery disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: The 33 patients with coronary artery disease included in this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover study received acetaminophen (1 g TID) on top of standard cardiovascular therapy for 2 weeks. Ambulatory blood pressure, heart rate, endothelium-dependent and -independent vasodilatation, platelet function, endothelial progenitor cells, markers of the renin-angiotensin system, inflammation, and oxidative stress were determined at baseline and after each treatment period. Treatment with acetaminophen resulted in a significant increase in mean systolic (from 122.4±11.9 to 125.3±12.0 mm Hg P=0.02 versus placebo) and diastolic (from 73.2±6.9 to 75.4±7.9 mm Hg P=0.02 versus placebo) ambulatory blood pressures. On the other hand, heart rate, endothelial function, early endothelial progenitor cells, and platelet function did not change. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates for the first time that acetaminophen induces a significant increase in ambulatory blood pressure in patients with coronary artery disease. Thus, the use of acetaminophen should be evaluated as rigorously as traditional nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs and cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors, particularly in patients at increased cardiovascular risk. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00534651.

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PURPOSE: 3'-deoxy-3'-[(18)F]fluorothymidine ([(18)F]FLT), a cell proliferation positron emission tomography (PET) tracer, has been shown in numerous tumors to be more specific than 2-deoxy-2-[(18)F]fluoro-D: -glucose ([(18)F]FDG) but less sensitive. We studied the capacity of a nontoxic concentration of 5-fluoro-2'-deoxyuridine (FdUrd), a thymidine synthesis inhibitor, to increase uptake of [(18)F]FLT in tumor xenografts. METHODS: The duration of the FdUrd effect in vivo on tumor cell cycling and thymidine analogue uptake was studied by varying FdUrd pretreatment timing and holding constant the timing of subsequent flow cytometry and 5-[(125)I]iodo-2'-deoxyuridine biodistribution measurements. In [(18)F]FLT studies, FdUrd pretreatment was generally performed 1 h before radiotracer injection. [(18)F]FLT biodistributions were measured 1 to 3 h after radiotracer injection of mice grafted with five different human tumors and pretreated or not with FdUrd and compared with [(18)F]FDG tumor uptake. Using microPET, the dynamic distribution of [(18)F]FLT was followed for 1.5 h in FdUrd pretreated mice. High-field T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and histology were used comparatively in assessing tumor viability and proliferation. RESULTS: FdUrd induced an immediate increase in tumor uptake of 5-[(125)I]iodo-2'-deoxyuridine, that vanished after 6 h, as also confirmed by flow cytometry. Biodistribution measurements showed that FdUrd pretreatment increased [(18)F]FLT uptake in all tumors by factors of 3.2 to 7.8 compared with controls, while [(18)F]FDG tumor uptake was about fourfold and sixfold lower in breast cancers and lymphoma. Dynamic PET in FdUrd pretreated mice showed that [(18)F]FLT uptake in all tumors increased steadily up to 1.5 h. MRI showed a well-vascularized homogenous lymphoma with high [(18)F]FLT uptake, while in breast cancer, a central necrosis shown by MRI was inactive in PET, consistent with the histomorphological analysis. CONCLUSION: We showed a reliable and significant uptake increase of [(18)F]FLT in different tumor xenografts after low-dose FdUrd pretreatment. These results show promise for a clinical application of FdUrd aimed at increasing the sensitivity of [(18)F]FLT PET.

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The great difficulty of incorporation of N fertilizers into the "green sugarcane" system causes concern and since urea is the most commonly used source, there is the risk of loosing NH3 through volatilization. For this reason, a field experiment was undertaken (in a Hapludox Typic) with the objective of evaluating the agronomic efficiency of ammonium chloride on stubble of the second ratoon (SP89 1115), as well as its residual effect on the subsequent cycle (third ratoon). The experimental design was randomized blocks with four replications. Treatments consisted of three N rates (60, 120 and 180 kg ha-1 N) in the form of NH4Cl, in addition to a control treatment without the addition of N fertilizer. The ratoon cane of the second cutting was harvested in November 2006 and the treatments were applied in December 2006. The second ratoon was harvested mechanically in November 2007 and in December 2007, 450 kg ha-1 of the NPK mixture 20-05-19 was applied, providing 90, 22 and 86 kg ha-1 N, P2O5 and K2O, respectively, for the purpose of evaluating the effect of residual-N from the treatments implanted in December 2006. An increase in the rates of N-NH4Cl had a positive effect on the leaf concentrations of P, Mg and S. Stalk yield (MSS - Mg ha-1 of sugarcane stalks) and sugar (MSH - Mg ha-1 of sucrose) in the November 2006 harvest responded linearly to the increase of N doses in the form of NH4Cl. In relation to the effect of residual-N in the 2007/2008 harvest, it was observed, in general, that the concentrations of macronutrients in the sugarcane leaf +1 were within the range considered adequate in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The residual-N of the NH4Cl doses resulted in a significant reduction in stalk (MSS) and sugar (MSH) production. It may be concluded that the NH4Cl source at a dose of 120 kg ha-1 N in ratoon fertilization of the second cutting was agronomically efficient, presenting, however, less efficiency of residual-N in the subsequent cycle.

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BACKGROUND Current guidelines give recommendations for preferred combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). We investigated factors influencing the choice of initial cART in clinical practice and its outcome. METHODS We analyzed treatment-naive adults with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection participating in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and starting cART from January 1, 2005, through December 31, 2009. The primary end point was the choice of the initial antiretroviral regimen. Secondary end points were virologic suppression, the increase in CD4 cell counts from baseline, and treatment modification within 12 months after starting treatment. RESULTS A total of 1957 patients were analyzed. Tenofovir-emtricitabine (TDF-FTC)-efavirenz was the most frequently prescribed cART (29.9%), followed by TDF-FTC-lopinavir/r (16.9%), TDF-FTC-atazanavir/r (12.9%), zidovudine-lamivudine (ZDV-3TC)-lopinavir/r (12.8%), and abacavir/lamivudine (ABC-3TC)-efavirenz (5.7%). Differences in prescription were noted among different Swiss HIV Cohort Study sites (P < .001). In multivariate analysis, compared with TDF-FTC-efavirenz, starting TDF-FTC-lopinavir/r was associated with prior AIDS (relative risk ratio, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.78-4.35), HIV-RNA greater than 100 000 copies/mL (1.53; 1.07-2.18), and CD4 greater than 350 cells/μL (1.67; 1.04-2.70); TDF-FTC-atazanavir/r with a depressive disorder (1.77; 1.04-3.01), HIV-RNA greater than 100 000 copies/mL (1.54; 1.05-2.25), and an opiate substitution program (2.76; 1.09-7.00); and ZDV-3TC-lopinavir/r with female sex (3.89; 2.39-6.31) and CD4 cell counts greater than 350 cells/μL (4.50; 2.58-7.86). At 12 months, 1715 patients (87.6%) achieved viral load less than 50 copies/mL and CD4 cell counts increased by a median (interquartile range) of 173 (89-269) cells/μL. Virologic suppression was more likely with TDF-FTC-efavirenz, and CD4 increase was higher with ZDV-3TC-lopinavir/r. No differences in outcome were observed among Swiss HIV Cohort Study sites. CONCLUSIONS Large differences in prescription but not in outcome were observed among study sites. A trend toward individualized cART was noted suggesting that initial cART is significantly influenced by physician's preference and patient characteristics. Our study highlights the need for evidence-based data for determining the best initial regimen for different HIV-infected persons.

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BACKGROUND: Smoking contributes to reasons for hospitalisation, and the period of hospitalisation may be a good time to provide help with quitting. OBJECTIVES: To determine the effectiveness of interventions for smoking cessation that are initiated for hospitalised patients. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group register which includes papers identified from CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycINFO in December 2011 for studies of interventions for smoking cessation in hospitalised patients, using terms including (hospital and patient*) or hospitali* or inpatient* or admission* or admitted. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized and quasi-randomized trials of behavioural, pharmacological or multicomponent interventions to help patients stop smoking, conducted with hospitalised patients who were current smokers or recent quitters (defined as having quit more than one month before hospital admission). The intervention had to start in the hospital but could continue after hospital discharge. We excluded studies of patients admitted to facilities that primarily treat psychiatric disorders or substance abuse, studies that did not report abstinence rates and studies with follow-up of less than six months. Both acute care hospitals and rehabilitation hospitals were included in this update, with separate analyses done for each type of hospital. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors extracted data independently for each paper, with disagreements resolved by consensus. MAIN RESULTS: Fifty trials met the inclusion criteria. Intensive counselling interventions that began during the hospital stay and continued with supportive contacts for at least one month after discharge increased smoking cessation rates after discharge (risk ratio (RR) 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.27 to 1.48; 25 trials). A specific benefit for post-discharge contact compared with usual care was found in a subset of trials in which all participants received a counselling intervention in the hospital and were randomly assigned to post-discharge contact or usual care. No statistically significant benefit was found for less intensive counselling interventions. Adding nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) to an intensive counselling intervention increased smoking cessation rates compared with intensive counselling alone (RR 1.54, 95% CI 1.34 to 1.79, six trials). Adding varenicline to intensive counselling had a non-significant effect in two trials (RR 1.28, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.74). Adding bupropion did not produce a statistically significant increase in cessation over intensive counselling alone (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.45, three trials). A similar pattern of results was observed in a subgroup of smokers admitted to hospital because of cardiovascular disease (CVD). In this subgroup, intensive intervention with follow-up support increased the rate of smoking cessation (RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.56), but less intensive interventions did not. One trial of intensive intervention including counselling and pharmacotherapy for smokers admitted with CVD assessed clinical and health care utilization endpoints, and found significant reductions in all-cause mortality and hospital readmission rates over a two-year follow-up period. These trials were all conducted in acute care hospitals. A comparable increase in smoking cessation rates was observed in a separate pooled analysis of intensive counselling interventions in rehabilitation hospitals (RR 1.71, 95% CI 1.37 to 2.14, three trials). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: High intensity behavioural interventions that begin during a hospital stay and include at least one month of supportive contact after discharge promote smoking cessation among hospitalised patients. The effect of these interventions was independent of the patient's admitting diagnosis and was found in rehabilitation settings as well as acute care hospitals. There was no evidence of effect for interventions of lower intensity or shorter duration. This update found that adding NRT to intensive counselling significantly increases cessation rates over counselling alone. There is insufficient direct evidence to conclude that adding bupropion or varenicline to intensive counselling increases cessation rates over what is achieved by counselling alone.

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The influence of social factors on birthweight and fetal and infant mortality was investigated in the Swiss birth cohort from 1979-85 (N = 519,933). The proportion of newborns with low-birthweight (less than 2500 g) was higher in lower social classes. Stillbirth-rate, neonatal and postneonatal mortality were higher in lower social classes, too. When controlling for birthweight, the increase in mortality in the lower social classes became somewhat less striking. Marked social differences in perinatal mortality were found in the newborns with normal weight, whereas almost no difference could be detected in the low-birthweight-group.

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Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) comprises both indolent forms, including follicular lymphoma (FL) and marginal zone lymphoma (MZL), and aggressive forms, including diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and mantle cell lymphoma (MCL). FL and DLBCL are the most common subtypes of indolent and aggressive NHL, respectively. Although these lymphomas exhibit different clinical behaviors and outcomes, the prognosis is negatively affected in both DLBCL and FL by the lack of a complete response (CR) with standard treatment options. The aim of therapy should therefore be achievement of a CR, which is not only associated with longer progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival times, but is also a prerequisite for a cure, particularly in DLBCL. Consolidation treatment with radioimmunotherapy (RIT) is an innovative treatment approach to increase CR rates. Phase II studies have indicated promising results with yttrium-90 ((90)Y)-ibritumomab tiuxetan and iodine-131 ((131)I)-tositumomab as consolidation following induction therapy for previously untreated patients with advanced FL. More recently, investigators reported a marked increase in CR rates and significant improvements in PFS using standard chemotherapy regimens followed by (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan in a phase III randomized trial in patients with previously untreated FL. Data also suggest that RIT may play a role in the treatment of high-risk DLBCL, with encouraging PFS results from a phase II trial of (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan consolidation following induction with rituximab plus chemotherapy in elderly patients with previously untreated DLBCL. With the higher CR rates and longer PFS times observed in patients with FL and DLBCL, as well as encouraging early data from MZL and MCL consolidation trials, RIT appears to have an important role in the treatment of patients with NHL.

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Because of the increase in workplace automation and the diversification of industrial processes, workplaces have become more and more complex. The classical approaches used to address workplace hazard concerns, such as checklists or sequence models, are, therefore, of limited use in such complex systems. Moreover, because of the multifaceted nature of workplaces, the use of single-oriented methods, such as AEA (man oriented), FMEA (system oriented), or HAZOP (process oriented), is not satisfactory. The use of a dynamic modeling approach in order to allow multiple-oriented analyses may constitute an alternative to overcome this limitation. The qualitative modeling aspects of the MORM (man-machine occupational risk modeling) model are discussed in this article. The model, realized on an object-oriented Petri net tool (CO-OPN), has been developed to simulate and analyze industrial processes in an OH&S perspective. The industrial process is modeled as a set of interconnected subnets (state spaces), which describe its constitutive machines. Process-related factors are introduced, in an explicit way, through machine interconnections and flow properties. While man-machine interactions are modeled as triggering events for the state spaces of the machines, the CREAM cognitive behavior model is used in order to establish the relevant triggering events. In the CO-OPN formalism, the model is expressed as a set of interconnected CO-OPN objects defined over data types expressing the measure attached to the flow of entities transiting through the machines. Constraints on the measures assigned to these entities are used to determine the state changes in each machine. Interconnecting machines implies the composition of such flow and consequently the interconnection of the measure constraints. This is reflected by the construction of constraint enrichment hierarchies, which can be used for simulation and analysis optimization in a clear mathematical framework. The use of Petri nets to perform multiple-oriented analysis opens perspectives in the field of industrial risk management. It may significantly reduce the duration of the assessment process. But, most of all, it opens perspectives in the field of risk comparisons and integrated risk management. Moreover, because of the generic nature of the model and tool used, the same concepts and patterns may be used to model a wide range of systems and application fields.

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Soils under natural conditions have heavy metals in variable concentrations and there may be an increase in these elements as a result of the agricultural practices adopted. Transport of heavy metals in soil mainly occurs in forms dissolved in the soil solution or associated with solid particles, water being their main means of transport. In this context, the aim of this study was to evaluate the heavy metal and micronutrient content in the soil and in the grapevine plant and fruit under different irrigation strategies. The experiment was carried out in Petrolina, PE, Brazil. The treatments consisted of three irrigation strategies: full irrigation (FI), regulated deficit irrigation (RDI), and deficit irrigation (DI). During the period of grape maturation, soil samples were collected at the depths of 0-10, 10-20, 20-40, 40-60, and 60-80 cm. In addition, leaves were collected at the time of ripening of the bunches, and berries were collected at harvest. Thus, the heavy metal and micronutrient contents were determined in the soil, leaves, and berries. The heavy metal and micronutrient contents in the soil showed a stochastic pattern in relation to the different irrigation strategies. The different irrigation strategies did not affect the heavy metal and micronutrient contents in the vine leaves, and they were below the contents considered toxic to the plant. In contrast, the greater availability of water in the FI treatment favored a greater Cu content in the grape, which may be a risk to vines, causing instability and turbidity. Thus, adoption of deficit irrigation is recommended so as to avoid compromising the stability of tropical wines of the Brazilian Northeast.

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BACKGROUND: Administration of protease inhibitors (PIs) to HIV-infected individuals has been associated with hyperlipidemia. In this study, we characterized the lipoprotein profile in subjects receiving ritonavir, indinavir, or nelfinavir, alone or in combination with saquinavir. METHODS AND RESULTS: Plasma lipoprotein levels were quantified in 93 HIV-infected adults receiving PIs. Comparison was done with pretreatment values and with 28 nonPI-treated HIV-infected subjects. An elevation in plasma cholesterol levels was observed in all PI-treated groups but was more pronounced for ritonavir (2.0+/-0.3 mmol/L [mean+/-SEM], n=46, versus 0.1+/-0.2 mmol/L in nonPI treated group, P<0.001) than for indinavir (0.8+/-0.2 mmol/L, n=26, P=0.03) or nelfinavir (1.2+/-0.2 mmol/L, n=21, P=0.01). Administration of ritonavir, but not indinavir or nelfinavir, was associated with a marked elevation in plasma triglyceride levels (1.83+/-0.46 mmol/L, P=0.002). Plasma HDL-cholesterol levels remained unchanged. Combination of ritonavir or nelfinavir with saquinavir did not further elevate plasma lipid levels. A 48% increase in plasma levels of lipoprotein(a) was detected in PI-treated subjects with pretreatment Lp(a) values >20 mg/dL. Similar changes in plasma lipid levels were observed in 6 children receiving ritonavir. CONCLUSIONS: Administration of PIs to HIV-infected individuals is associated with a marked, compound-specific dyslipidemia. The risk of pancreatitis and premature atherosclerosis due to PI-associated dyslipidemia remains to be established.

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BACKGROUND: To compare the incidence and timing of bone fractures in postmenopausal women treated with 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen or letrozole for endocrine-responsive early breast cancer in the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 trial. METHODS: We evaluated 4895 patients allocated to 5 years of letrozole or tamoxifen in the BIG 1-98 trial who received at least some study medication (median follow-up 60.3 months). Bone fracture information (grade, cause, site) was collected every 6 months during trial treatment. RESULTS: The incidence of bone fractures was higher among patients treated with letrozole [228 of 2448 women (9.3%)] versus tamoxifen [160 of 2447 women (6.5%)]. The wrist was the most common site of fracture in both treatment groups. Statistically significant risk factors for bone fractures during treatment included age, smoking history, osteoporosis at baseline, previous bone fracture, and previous hormone replacement therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with other trials comparing aromatase inhibitors to tamoxifen, letrozole was associated with an increase in bone fractures. Benefits of superior disease control associated with letrozole and lower incidence of fracture with tamoxifen should be considered with the risk profile for individual patients.

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Irritability, together with depression and anxiety, form three salient clinical features of pre-symptomatic Huntington's disease (HD). To date, the understanding of irritability in HD suffers from a paucity of experimental data and is largely based on questionnaires or clinical anecdotes. Factor analysis suggests that irritability is related to impulsivity and aggression and is likely to engage the same neuronal circuits as these behaviours, including areas such as medial orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) and amygdala. 16 pre-symptomatic gene carriers (PSCs) and 15 of their companions were asked to indicate the larger of two squares consecutively shown on a screen while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Despite correct identification of the larger square, participants were often told that they or their partner had given the wrong answer. Size differences were subtle to make negative feedback credible but detectable. Although task performance, baseline irritability, and reported task-induced irritation were the same for both groups, fMRI revealed distinct neuronal processing in those who will later develop HD. In controls but not PSCs, task-induced irritation correlated positively with amygdala activation and negatively with OFC activation. Repetitive negative feedback induced greater amygdala activations in controls than PSCs. In addition, the inverse functional coupling between amygdala and OFC was significantly weaker in PSCs compared to controls. Our results argue that normal emotion processing circuits are disrupted in PSCs via attenuated modulation of emotional status by external or internal indicators. At later stages, this dysfunction may increase the risk for developing recognised, HD-associated, psychiatric symptoms such as irritability.

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The 1st federal transplant law was enforced in July 2007 with the obligation to promote quality and efficiency in the procedures for organ and tissue donation for transplantation. The Latin organ donation programme (LODP) created in 2008 aims to develop organ donation in 17 public hospitals in 7 Latin cantons, covering 2.2 million people; 29% of the Swiss population. The implementation of various effective measures by the LODP enabled the increase in the number of donors by 70% between 2008 and 2010, with four organs procured per donor; greatly exceeding the European average of three. The results show that LODP has successfully professionalised the system and we can only hope that similar organisations will be put into place throughout Switzerland.