Nominal Stability and Financial Globalization

Over the past four decades, advanced economies experienced a large growth in gross external portfolio positions. This phenomenon has been described as Financial Globalization. Over roughly the same time frame, most of these countries also saw a substantial fall in the level and variability of inflation. Many economists have conjectured that financial globalization contributed to the improved performance in the level and predictability of inflation. In this paper, we explore the causal link running in the opposite direction. We show that a monetary policy rule which reduces inflation variability leads to an increase in the size of gross external positions, both in equity and bond portfolios. This appears to be a robust prediction of open economy macro models with endogenous portfolio choice. It holds across different modeling specifications and parameterizations. We also present preliminary empirical evidence which shows a negative relationship between inflation volatility and the size of gross external positions.

Price Transmission and Effects of Exchange Rates on Domestic Commodity Prices via Offshore and Currency Hedging

The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures market and the forward exchange market can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporters/importers to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in the expected exchange rate can raise both supply and demand for commodities and reduce domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Whether higher volatilities of exchange rate and foreign futures price can reduce the optimal spot position of domestic traders depends on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign futures price. Even though the forward exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can still affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices depends on trader behaviour i.e. who trades or does not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least-squares approach to Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result.

Overtime Working and Contract Efficiency

We present a wage-hours contract designed to minimize costly turnover given investments in specific training combined with firm and worker information asymmetries. It may be optimal for the parties to work ‘long hours’ remunerated at premium rates for guaranteed overtime hours. Based on British plant and machine operatives, we test three predictions. First, trained workers with longer tenure are more likely to work overtime. Second, hourly overtime pay exceeds the value of marginal product while the basic hourly wage is less than the value of marginal product. Third, the basic hourly wage is negatively related to the overtime premium.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

A new look at the Heston characteristic function

A new expression for the characteristic function of log-spot in Heston model is presented. This expression more clearly exhibits its properties as an analytic characteristic function and allows us to compute the exact domain of the moment generating function. This result is then applied to the volatility smile at extreme strikes and to the control of the moments of spot. We also give a factorization of the moment generating function as product of Bessel type factors, and an approximating sequence to the law of log-spot is deduced.

The Monetary policy rules and the inflation process in open emerging

This paper has three objectives. First, it aims at revealing the logic of interest rate setting pursued by monetary authorities of 12 new EU members. Using estimation of an augmented Taylor rule, we find that this setting was not always consistent with the official monetary policy. Second, we seek to shed light on the inflation process of these countries. To this end, we carry out an estimation of an open economy Philips curve (PC). Our main finding is that inflation rates were not only driven by backward persistency but also held a forward-looking component. Finally, we assess the viability of existing monetary arrangements for price stability. The analysis of the conditional inflation variance obtained from GARCH estimation of PC is used for this purpose. We conclude that inflation targeting is preferable to an exchange rate peg because it allowed decreasing the inflation rate and anchored its volatility.

Genomic determinants of the efficiency of internal ribosomal entry sites of viral and cellular origin

Summary : Internal ribosome entry sites (IRES) are used by viruses as a strategy to bypass inhibition of cap-dependent translation that commonly results from viral infection. IRES are also used in eukaryotic cells to control mRNA translation under conditions of cellular stress (apoptosis, heat shock) or during the G2 phase of the cell cycle when general protein synthesis is inhibited. Variation in cellular expression levels has been shown to be inherited. Expression is controlled, among others, by transcriptional factors and by the efficiency of cap-mediated translation and ribosome activity. We aimed at identifying genomic determinants of variability in IRES-mediated translation of two representative IRES [Encephalomyocarditis virus (EMCV) and X-linked Inhibitor-of-Apoptosis (XIAP) IRES]. We used bicistronic lentiviral constructions expressing two fluorescent reporter transgenes. Lentiviruses were used to transduce seven different laboratory cell lines and B lymphoblastoid cell lines from the Centre d'Etude du Polymorphisme Humain (CEPH; 15 pedigrees; n=209); representing an in vitro approach to family structure allowing genome scan analyses. The relative expression of the two markers was assessed by FACS. IRES efficiency varies according to cellular background, but also varies, for a same cell type, among individuals. The control of IRES activity presents an inherited component (h2) of 0.47 and 0.36 for EMCV and XIAP IRES, respectively. A genome scan identified a suggestive Quantitative Trait Loci (LOD 2.35) involved in the control of XIAP IRES activity. Résumé : Les sites internes d'entrée des ribosomes (IRES = internal ribosome entry sites) sont utilisés par les virus comme une stratégie afin d'outrepasser l'inhibition de traduction qui résulte communément d'une infection virale. Les IRES sont également utilisés par les cellules eucaryotes pour contrôler la traduction de l'ARN messager dans des conditions de stress cellulaire (apoptose, choc thermique) ou durant la phase G2 du cycle cellulaire, situations durant lesquelles la synthèse générale des protéines est inhibée. La variation des niveaux d'expression cellulaire de transcription est un caractère héréditaire. L'expression des gènes est contrôlée entre autre par les facteurs de transcription et par l'efficacité de la traduction initiée par la coiffe ainsi que par l'activité des ribosomes. Durant cette étude nous avons eu pour but d'identifier les déterminants génomiques responsables de la variabilité de la traduction contrôlée par l'IRES. Ceci a été effectué en étudiant deux IRES représentatifs : l'IRES du virus de l'encéphalomyocardite (EMCV) et l'IRES de l'inhibiteur de l'apoptose XIAP (X-linked Inhibitor-of-Apoptosis). Nous avons utilisés des lentivirus délivrant un transgène bicistronique codant pour deux gènes rapporteurs fluorescents. Ces lentivirus ont été utilisés pour transduire sept différentes lignées cellulaires de laboratoire et des lignées cellulaires lymphoblastoïdes B du Centre d'Etude du Polymorphisme Humain (CEPH; 15 pedigrees; n=209) qui représentent une approche in vitro de la structure familiale et qui permettent des analyses par balayage du génome. L'expression relative des deux marqueurs fluorescents a été analysée par FACS. Nos résultats montrent que l'efficacité des IRES varie en fonction du type de cellules. Il varie aussi, pour le même type de cellules, selon les individus. Le contrôle de l'activité de l'IRES est un caractère héritable (héritabilité h2) de 0.47 et 0.36 pour les IRES de EMCV et XIAP respectivement. Le balayage du génome a permis l'identification d'un locus à effets quantitatifs [QTL Quantitative Trait Loci (LOD 2.35)] impliqué dans le contôle de l'activité de l'IRES de XIAP.

Estimating the Impact on Efficiency of the Adoption of a Voluntary Environmental Standard: An Empirical Study of the Global Copper Mining Industry

This paper uses data on the world's copper mining industry to measure the impact on efficiency of the adoption of the ISO 14001 environmental standard. Anecdotal and case study literature suggests that firms are motivated to adopt this standard so as to achieve greater efficiency through changes in operating procedures and processes. Using plant level panel data from 1992-2007 on most of the world's industrial copper mines, the study uses stochastic frontier methods to investigate the effects of ISO adoption. The variety of models used in this study find that adoption either tends to improve efficiency or has no impact on efficiency, but no evidence is found that ISO adoption decreases efficiency.

Quantile forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods are regularly used to deal with model uncertainty in regression models. This paper shows how to introduce Bayesian model averaging methods in quantile regressions, and allow for different predictors to affect different quantiles of the dependent variable. I show that quantile regression BMA methods can help reduce uncertainty regarding outcomes of future inflation by providing superior predictive densities compared to mean regression models with and without BMA.

A test of long memory hypothesis based on self-similarity

This paper develops a new test of true versus spurious long memory, based on log-periodogram estimation of the long memory parameter using skip-sampled data. A correction factor is derived to overcome the bias in this estimator due to aliasing. The procedure is designed to be used in the context of a conventional test of significance of the long memory parameter, and composite test procedure described that has the properties of known asymptotic size and consistency. The test is implemented using the bootstrap, with the distribution under the null hypothesis being approximated using a dependent-sample bootstrap technique to approximate short-run dependence following fractional differencing. The properties of the test are investigated in a set of Monte Carlo experiments. The procedure is illustrated by applications to exchange rate volatility and dividend growth series.

The efficiency of Lutz, Kato-Katz and Baermann-Moraes (adapted) techniques association to the diagnosis of intestinal helmints

The association of Lutz/Kato-Katz and Lutz/Bermann-Moraes (adapted techniques was used to improve better results that ranged from 0.4 to 11 times in the search of eggs of Ascaris lumbricoides, Schistosoma mansoni, Trichiuris trichiura, Taenia sp. and larvae of Strongyloides stercoralis.

Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.

The impact of iron supplementation efficiency in female blood donors with a decreased ferritin level and no anaemia. Rationale and design of a randomised controlled trial: a study protocol.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: There is no recommendation to screen ferritin level in blood donors, even though several studies have noted the high prevalence of iron deficiency after blood donation, particularly among menstruating females. Furthermore, some clinical trials have shown that non-anaemic women with unexplained fatigue may benefit from iron supplementation. Our objective is to determine the clinical effect of iron supplementation on fatigue in female blood donors without anaemia, but with a mean serum ferritin </= 30 ng/ml. METHODS/DESIGN: In a double blind randomised controlled trial, we will measure blood count and ferritin level of women under age 50 yr, who donate blood to the University Hospital of Lausanne Blood Transfusion Department, at the time of the donation and after 1 week. One hundred and forty donors with a ferritin level </= 30 ng/ml and haemoglobin level >/= 120 g/l (non-anaemic) a week after the donation will be included in the study and randomised. A one-month course of oral ferrous sulphate (80 mg/day of elemental iron) will be introduced vs. placebo. Self-reported fatigue will be measured using a visual analogue scale. Secondary outcomes are: score of fatigue (Fatigue Severity Scale), maximal aerobic power (Chester Step Test), quality of life (SF-12), and mood disorders (Prime-MD). Haemoglobin and ferritin concentration will be monitored before and after the intervention. DISCUSSION: Iron deficiency is a potential problem for all blood donors, especially menstruating women. To our knowledge, no other intervention study has yet evaluated the impact of iron supplementation on subjective symptoms after a blood donation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00689793.

Assesing advertising efficiency: does the internet play a role?

This research focuses on a major concern for marketers addressing the claims of inefficiency of the spending on advertising. We examine whether the Internet can help increase overall advertising efficiency. Using a sample from the Spanish automobile industry, we combine a nonparametric method - Data Envelopment Analysis - with recent important insights from statistics and econometrics studies, and we find that online advertising improves the efficiency levels and this effect is more pronounced in the long-term temporal framework.