Spatially clustered associations in health GIS

Overlaying maps using a desktop GIS is often the first step of a multivariate spatial analysis. The potential of this operation has increased considerably as data sources and Web services to manipulate them are becoming widely available via the Internet. Standards from the OGC enable such geospatial mashups to be seamless and user driven, involving discovery of thematic data. The user is naturally inclined to look for spatial clusters and correlation of outcomes. Using classical cluster detection scan methods to identify multivariate associations can be problematic in this context, because of a lack of control on or knowledge about background populations. For public health and epidemiological mapping, this limiting factor can be critical but often the focus is on spatial identification of risk factors associated with health or clinical status. Spatial entropy index HSu for the ScankOO analysis of the hypothetical dataset using a vicinity which is fixed by the number of points without distinction between their labels. (The size of the labels is proportional to the inverse of the index) In this article we point out that this association itself can ensure some control on underlying populations, and develop an exploratory scan statistic framework for multivariate associations. Inference using statistical map methodologies can be used to test the clustered associations. The approach is illustrated with a hypothetical data example and an epidemiological study on community MRSA. Scenarios of potential use for online mashups are introduced but full implementation is left for further research.

Probabilistic methods for drug discovery

This thesis introduces a flexible visual data exploration framework which combines advanced projection algorithms from the machine learning domain with visual representation techniques developed in the information visualisation domain to help a user to explore and understand effectively large multi-dimensional datasets. The advantage of such a framework to other techniques currently available to the domain experts is that the user is directly involved in the data mining process and advanced machine learning algorithms are employed for better projection. A hierarchical visualisation model guided by a domain expert allows them to obtain an informed segmentation of the input space. Two other components of this thesis exploit properties of these principled probabilistic projection algorithms to develop a guided mixture of local experts algorithm which provides robust prediction and a model to estimate feature saliency simultaneously with the training of a projection algorithm.Local models are useful since a single global model cannot capture the full variability of a heterogeneous data space such as the chemical space. Probabilistic hierarchical visualisation techniques provide an effective soft segmentation of an input space by a visualisation hierarchy whose leaf nodes represent different regions of the input space. We use this soft segmentation to develop a guided mixture of local experts (GME) algorithm which is appropriate for the heterogeneous datasets found in chemoinformatics problems. Moreover, in this approach the domain experts are more involved in the model development process which is suitable for an intuition and domain knowledge driven task such as drug discovery. We also derive a generative topographic mapping (GTM) based data visualisation approach which estimates feature saliency simultaneously with the training of a visualisation model.

By writers for writers: developing a writer-centred model of the writing process

This thesis, set within an Action Research framework, details the development and validation of a writer-centred model of the writing process. The model was synthesised within the boundaries of a writers’ group for MA students. The initial data collected, and analysed using the principles of grounded theory, were retrospective descriptions of group members’ writing processes. After initial analysis, additional data, from group members’ writing, and from audio recordings, were used for further analysis, and to form a model of the writing process. To ascertain whether the model had value outside the specific context in which it was made, it was validated from three different perspectives. Firstly, the retrospective descriptions of other writers were collected and analysed, using the model as a framework. Secondly, the model was presented at academic conferences; comments about the model, made by members of the audience, were collected and analysed. Finally, the model was used in writing courses for PhD students. Comments from these students, along with questionnaire responses, were collected and the content analysed. Upon examination of all data sources, the model was updated to reflect additional insights arising from the analysis. Analysis of the data also indicated that the model is useable outside its original context. Potential uses for the model are 1) raising awareness of the process of writing, 2) putting writers at ease, 3) serving as a starting point for individuals or groups to design their own models of the writing process, and 4) as a tool to help writers take control of their writing processes.

The cognitive impact of anticholinergics:a clinical review

Context: The cognitive side effects of medications with anticholinergic activity have been documented among older adults in a variety of clinical settings. However, there has been no systematic confirmation that acute or chronic prescribing of such medications lead to transient or permanent adverse cognitive outcomes. Objective: Evaluate the existing evidence regarding the effects of anticholinergic medications on cognition in older adults. Data sources: We searched the MEDLINE, OVID, and CINAHL databases from January, 1966 to January, 2008 for eligible studies. Study selection: Studies were included if the anticholinergic activity was systematically measured and correlated with standard measurements of cognitive performance. Studies were excluded if they reported case studies, case series, editorials, and review articles. Data extraction: We extracted the method used to determine anticholinergic activity of medications and its association with cognitive outcomes. Results: Twenty-seven studies met our inclusion criteria. Serum anticholinergic assay was the main method used to determine anticholinergic activity. All but two studies found an association between the anticholinergic activity of medications and either delirium, cognitive impairment or dementia. Conclusions: Medications with anticholinergic activity negatively affect the cognitive performance of older adults. Recognizing the anticholinergic activity of certain medications may represent a potential tool to improve cognition.

Impact of cholinesterase inhibitors on behavioral and psychological symptoms of Alzheimer's disease:a meta-analysis

Objective: To determine the efficacy of cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs) in improving the behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD) in patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Data sources: We searched MEDLINE, Cochrane Registry, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) from 1966 to 2007. We limited our search to English Language, full text, published articles and human studies. Data extraction: We included randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of donepezil, rivastigmine, or galantamine in managing BPSD displayed by AD patients. Using the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines, we critically appraised all studies and included only those with an attrition rate of less than 40%, concealed measurement of the outcomes, and intention to treat analysis of the collected data. All data were imputed into pre-defined evidence based tables and were pooled using the Review Manager 4.2.1 software for data synthesis. Results: We found 12 studies that met our inclusion criteria but only nine of them provided sufficient data for the meta-analysis. Among patients with mild to severe AD and in comparison to placebo, ChEIs as a class had a beneficial effects on reducing BPSD with a standard mean difference (SMD) of -0.10 (95% confidence interval [CI]; -0.18, -0.01) and a weighted mean difference (WMD) of -1.38 neuropsychiatry inventory point (95% CI; -2.30, -0.46). In studies with mild AD patients, the WMD was -1.92 (95% CI; -3.18, -0.66); and in studies with severe AD patients, the WMD was -0.06 (95% CI; -2.12, +0.57). Conclusion: Cholinesterase inhibitors lead to a statistical significant reduction in BPSD among patients with AD, yet the clinical relevance of this effect remains unclear.

Creating lift versus building the base:current trends in marketing dynamics

Markets are dynamic by nature, and marketing efforts can be directed to stimulate, reduce, or to utilize these dynamics. The field of marketing dynamics aims at modeling the effects of marketing actions and policies on short-term performance (“lift”) and on long-term performance (“base”). One of the core questions within this field is: “How do marketing efforts affect outcome metrics such as revenues, profits, or shareholder value over time?” Developments in statistical modeling and new data sources allow marketing scientists to provide increasingly comprehensive answers to this question. We present an outlook on developments in modeling marketing dynamics and specify research directions.

PowerAqua:fishing the semantic web

The Semantic Web (SW) offers an opportunity to develop novel, sophisticated forms of question answering (QA). Specifically, the availability of distributed semantic markup on a large scale opens the way to QA systems which can make use of such semantic information to provide precise, formally derived answers to questions. At the same time the distributed, heterogeneous, large-scale nature of the semantic information introduces significant challenges. In this paper we describe the design of a QA system, PowerAqua, designed to exploit semantic markup on the web to provide answers to questions posed in natural language. PowerAqua does not assume that the user has any prior information about the semantic resources. The system takes as input a natural language query, translates it into a set of logical queries, which are then answered by consulting and aggregating information derived from multiple heterogeneous semantic sources.

Effectiveness and uptake of screening programmes for coronary heart disease and diabetes:a realist review of design components used in interventions

Objective - To evaluate behavioural components and strategies associated with increased uptake and effectiveness of screening for coronary heart disease and diabetes with an implementation science focus. Design - Realist review. Data sources - PubMed, Web of Knowledge, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Controlled Trials Register and reference chaining. Searches limited to English language studies published since 1990. Eligibility criteria - Eligible studies evaluated interventions designed to increase the uptake of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes screening and examined behavioural and/or strategic designs. Studies were excluded if they evaluated changes in risk factors or cost-effectiveness only. Results - In 12 eligible studies, several different intervention designs and evidence-based strategies were evaluated. Salient themes were effects of feedback on behaviour change or benefits of health dialogues over simple feedback. Studies provide mixed evidence about the benefits of these intervention constituents, which are suggested to be situation and design specific, broadly supporting their use, but highlighting concerns about the fidelity of intervention delivery, raising implementation science issues. Three studies examined the effects of informed choice or loss versus gain frame invitations, finding no effect on screening uptake but highlighting opportunistic screening as being more successful for recruiting higher CVD and diabetes risk patients than an invitation letter, with no differences in outcomes once recruited. Two studies examined differences between attenders and non-attenders, finding higher risk factors among non-attenders and higher diagnosed CVD and diabetes among those who later dropped out of longitudinal studies. Conclusions - If the risk and prevalence of these diseases are to be reduced, interventions must take into account what we know about effective health behaviour change mechanisms, monitor delivery by trained professionals and examine the possibility of tailoring programmes according to contexts such as risk level to reach those most in need. Further research is needed to determine the best strategies for lifelong approaches to screening.

Precipitation studies on alloys from the system copper chromium zirconium

The precipitation reactions occurring in a series of copper-based alloys selected from the system copper-chromium-zirconium have been studied by resistometric and metallographic techniques. A survey of the factors influencing the development of copper-based alloys for high strength, high conductivity applications is followed by a more general review of contemporary materials, and illustrates that the most promising alloys are those containing chromium and zirconium. The few systematic attempts to study alloys from this system have been collated, discussed, and used as a basis for the selection of four alloy compositions viz:- Cu - 0.4% Cr Cu - 0.24. Zr Cu - 0. 3% Cr - 0.1% Zr Cu - 0.2% Cr - 0.2% Zr A description of the experimental techniques used to study the precipitation behaviour of these materials is preceeded by a discussion of the currently accepted theories relating to precipitate nucleation and growth. The experimental results are presented and discussed for each of the alloys independently, and are then treated jointly to obtain an overall assessment of the way in which the precipitation kinetics, metallography and mechanical properties vary with alloy composition and heat treatment. The metastable solid solution of copper-chromium is found to decompose by the rejection of chromium particles which maintain a coherent interface and a Kurdjumov-Sachs type crystallographic orientation relationship with the copper matrix. The addition of 0.1% zirconium to the alloy retards the rate of transformation by a factor of ten and modifies the dispersion characteristics of the precipitate without markedly altering the morphology. Further additions of zirconium lead to the growth of stacking faults during ageing, which provide favourable nucleation sites for the chromium precipitate. The partial dislocations bounding such stacking faults are also found to provide mobile heterogeneous nucleation sources for the precipitation reactions occurring in copper-zirconium.

Efficacy of stimulants in adult ADHD

OBJECTIVE: To review the literature regarding the efficacy of stimulants to treat attention-deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in adults. DATA SOURCES: The relevant pharmaceutical manufacturers were contacted, and searches of MEDLINE (1966–December 2002) and the reference sections of each article obtained were performed using the key search terms: adult ADHD, stimulants, methylphenidate, amphetamines, and pemoline. STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION: All English-language original studies identified from the data sources were evaluated and all information deemed relevant was included in the review. DATA SYNTHESIS: Studies involving methylphenidate, amphetamines, and pemoline were identified. There was evidence for the efficacy of amphetamines from 5 studies (4 controlled, 1 open). Methylphenidate data from 6 controlled trials were conflicting. Three studies indicated efficacy; 2 studies failed to show efficacy, possibly due to methodologic reasons; and the results from 1 study were conflicting. The limited data from 1 controlled and 1 open study indicated that pemoline may be less effective than methylphenidate and amphetamines. CONCLUSIONS: While the current limited data indicate that stimulants may be effective in adult ADHD, more data are required to confirm long-term efficacy

The use of topiramate in mood stabilization

OBJECTIVE: To review data on the effectiveness of topiramate as a mood stabilizer. DATA SOURCES: Clinical literature accessed through MEDLINE (1985-September 2001) and the manufacturer. Key search terms included topiramate, mania, mood stabilizer, and bipolar disorder. DATA SYNTHESIS: The traditional standard therapy for bipolar disorder has been lithium. Other mood stabilizers are increasingly being used to manage this complex disorder. Studies that used topiramate in bipolar disorders were evaluated. CONCLUSIONS: The present data from open trials suggest that topiramate may possibly possess antimanic properties. Controlled, double-blind studies are required to confirm this efficacy

Gabapentin treatment for bipolar disorders

OBJECTIVE: To review the effectiveness data on the use of gabapentin in bipolar disorders. DATA SOURCES: Clinical literature was accessed through MEDLINE (January 1985–November 2000). Key search terms included gabapentin, mood stabilizer, and bipolar disorder. DATA SYNTHESIS: Bipolar disorder is a complex condition that can be difficult to treat effectively. Mood stabilizers are increasingly being used to manage bipolar disorder. Studies that used gabapentin in bipolar disorders are evaluated. CONCLUSIONS: From the data presented, gabapentin cannot be recommended for treatment of bipolar disorder. Further studies are required to determine whether gabapentin has any role in the management of bipolar disorder.

Parallel Semi-supervised EM-algorithm (MT-SSEM)

Report published in the Proceedings of the National Conference on "Education in the Information Society", Plovdiv, May, 2013

Smoke rings:towards a comprehensive tobacco free policy for the Olympic Games

Background The tobacco industry has long sought affiliation with major sporting events, including the Olympic Games, for marketing, advertising and promotion purposes. Since 1988, each Olympic Games has adopted a tobacco-free policy. Limited study of the effectiveness of the smoke-free policy has been undertaken to date, with none examining the tobacco industry's involvement with the Olympics or use of the Olympic brand. Methods and Findings A comparison of the contents of Olympic tobacco-free policies from 1988 to 2014 was carried out by searching the websites of the IOC and host NOCs. The specific tobacco control measures adopted for each Games were compiled and compared with measures recommended by the WHO Tobacco Free Sports Initiative and Article 13 of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). This was supported by semi-structured interviews of key informants involved with the adoption of tobacco-free policies for selected games. To understand the industry's interests in the Olympics, the Legacy Tobacco Documents Library (http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu) was systematically searched between June 2013 and August 2014. Company websites, secondary sources and media reports were also searched to triangulate the above data sources. This paper finds that, while most direct associations between tobacco and the Olympics have been prohibited since 1988, a variety of indirect associations undermine the Olympic tobacco-free policy. This is due to variation in the scope of tobacco-free policies, limited jurisdiction and continued efforts by the industry to be associated with Olympic ideals. Conclusions The paper concludes that, compatible with the IOC's commitment to promoting healthy lifestyles, a comprehensive tobacco-free policy with standardized and binding measures should be adopted by the International Olympic Committee and all national Olympic committees.

The devil is in the detail:tobacco industry political influence in the Dutch implementation of the 2001 EU Tobacco Products Directive

Introduction - The Dutch implementation of the black border provision in the 2001 European Union Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) is studied to examine the implications of tobacco industry involvement in the implementation phase of the policy process. Methods - A qualitative analysis was conducted of Dutch government documents obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests, triangulated with in-depth interviews with key informants and secondary data sources (publicly available government documents, scientific literature, and news articles). Results - Tobacco manufacturers’ associations were given the opportunity to set implementation specifications via a fast-track deal with the government. The offer of early implementation of the labelling section of the TPD was used as political leverage by the industry, and underpinned by threats of litigation and arguments highlighting the risks of additional public costs and the benefits to the government of expediency and speed. Ultimately, the government agreed to the industry's interpretation, against the advice of the European Commission. Conclusions - The findings highlight the policy risks associated with corporate actors’ ability to use interactions over technical product specifications to influence the implementation of health policy and illustrate the difficulties in limiting industry interference in accordance with Article 5.3 of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). The implementation phase is particularly vulnerable to industry influence, where negotiation with industry actors may be unavoidable and the practical implications of relatively technical considerations are not always apparent to policymakers. During the implementation of the new TPD 2014/40/EU, government officials are advised to take a proactive role in stipulating technical specifications.