Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

A formação em rastreio e intervenções breves do álcool muda as atitudes dos profissionais de saúde ocupacional? : estudo quasi experimental exploratório para uma estratégia para o meio laboral

RESUMO - Estudos anteriores nos Cuidados de Saúde Primários (CSP) apontam para um incremento da Deteção Precoce (DP) e Intervenções Breves (IB) em pacientes com Problemas Ligados ao Álcool (PLA) após formação apropriada dos profissionais de saúde (com melhoria das suas atitudes). Este estudo quasi experimental, exploratório, é pioneiro no âmbito da Saúde Ocupacional (SO) para a implementação de Rastreio/DP e IB nos PLA. O objetivo principal foi avaliar se uma formação sobre Rastreio/DP e IB pode melhorar as atitudes dos profissionais de SO ao lidar com os PLA em Meio Laboral (PLAML). Foi aplicado um questionário em duas partes: Q1/pré-formação (variáveis sociodemográficas, profissionais, competências em alcoologia, experiência pessoal com álcool/familiares com PLA, dificuldades em lidar com trabalhadores com PLA, AUDIT-C e SAAPPQ) e Q2/pós-formação (avaliação da formação e das atitudes SAAPPQ - Adequação, Legitimidade, Motivação, Autoestima e Satisfação). Os resultados na amostra (N=39) revelaram um aumento sobretudo na Adequação e Satisfação. No entanto, naqueles com níveis baixos das atitudes pré-formação constou-se melhoria das atitudes à excepção da Autoestima e foram encontradas algumas associações com as características do perfil inicial dos participantes. Sugerem-se estudos posteriores para identificação de pacotes formativos mais efetivos e propostas para um Plano integrador de RIB para PLAML

An agent based architecture to support monitoring in plug and produce manufacturing systems using knowledge extraction

In recent years a set of production paradigms were proposed in order to capacitate manufacturers to meet the new market requirements, such as the shift in demand for highly customized products resulting in a shorter product life cycle, rather than the traditional mass production standardized consumables. These new paradigms advocate solutions capable of facing these requirements, empowering manufacturing systems with a high capacity to adapt along with elevated flexibility and robustness in order to deal with disturbances, like unexpected orders or malfunctions. Evolvable Production Systems propose a solution based on the usage of modularity and self-organization with a fine granularity level, supporting pluggability and in this way allowing companies to add and/or remove components during execution without any extra re-programming effort. However, current monitoring software was not designed to fully support these characteristics, being commonly based on centralized SCADA systems, incapable of re-adapting during execution to the unexpected plugging/unplugging of devices nor changes in the entire system’s topology. Considering these aspects, the work developed for this thesis encompasses a fully distributed agent-based architecture, capable of performing knowledge extraction at different levels of abstraction without sacrificing the capacity to add and/or remove monitoring entities, responsible for data extraction and analysis, during runtime.

Biotransformation/separation routes to obtain pure enantiomers

The objective of the work presented in this thesis was the development of an innovative approach for the separation of enantiomers of secondary alcohols, combining the use of an ionic liquid (IL) - both as solvent for conducting enzymatic kinetic resolution and as acylating agent - with the use of carbon dioxide (CO2) as solvent for extraction. Menthol was selected for testing this reaction/separation approach due to the increasing demand for this substance, which is widely used in the pharmaceutical, cosmetics and food industries. With a view to using an ionic ester as acylating agent, whose conversion led to the release of ethanol, and due to the need to remove this alcohol so as to drive reaction equilibrium forward, a phase equilibrium study was conducted for the ehtanol/(±)-menthol/CO2 system, at pressures between 8 and 10 MPa and temperatures between 40 and 50 oC. It was found that CO2 is more selective towards ethanol, especially at the lowest pressure and highest temperature tested, leading to separation factors in the range 1.6-7.6. The pressure-temperature-composition data obtained were correlated with the Peng-Robinson equation of state and the Mathias-Klotz-Prausnitz mixing rule. The model fit the experimental results well, with an average absolute deviation (AAD) of 3.7 %. The resolution of racemic menthol was studied using two lipases, namely lipase from Candida rugosa (CRL) and immobilized lipase B from Candida antarctica (CALB), and two ionic acylating esters. No reaction was detected in either case. (R,S)-1-phenylethanol was used next, and it was found that with CRL low, nonselective, conversion of the alcohol took place, whereas CALB led to an enantiomeric excess (ee) of the substrate of 95%, at 30% conversion. Other acylating agents were tested for the resolution of (±)-menthol, namely vinyl esters and acid anhydrides, using several lipases and varying other parameters that affect conversion and enantioselectivity, such as substrate concentration, solvent and temperature. One such acylating agent was propionic anhydride. It was thus performed a phase equilibrium study on the propionic anhydride/CO2 system, at temperatures between 35 and 50 oC. This study revealed that, at 35 oC and pressures from 7 MPa, the system is monophasic for all compositions. The enzymatic catalysis studies carried out with propionic anhydride revealed that the extent of noncatalyzed reaction was high, with a negative effect on enantioselectivity. These studies showed also that it was possible to reduce considerably the impact of the noncatalyzed reaction relative to the reaction catalyzed by CRL by lowering temperature to 4 oC. Vinyl decanoate was shown to lead to the best results at conditions amenable to a process combining the use of supercritical CO2 as agent for post-reaction separation. The use of vinyl decanoate in a number of IL solvents, namely [bmim][PF6], [bmim][BF4], [hmim][PF6], [omim][PF6], and [bmim][Tf2N], led to an enantiomeric excess of product (eep) values of over 96%, at about 50% conversion, using CRL. In n-hexane and supercritical CO2, reaction progressed more slowly.(...)

Da 'portugalidade' à lusofonia

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Comunicação (Especialidade em Teoria da Cultura)

Stress, personalidade, coping e bem-estar: relação com o sucesso e excelência em contextos de realização desportiva

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Psicologia

As práticas de leitura e a sua relação com a compreensão leitora nas aulas de línguas

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ensino de Português no 3º Ciclo do Ensino Básico e no Ensino Secundário e de Espanhol nos Ensinos Básico e Secundário

Sistemas de Tipos para Verificación de Programas Concurrentes. Type Systems for Concurrent Programs Verification.

La programación concurrente es una tarea difícil aún para los más experimentados programadores. Las investigaciones en concurrencia han dado como resultado una gran cantidad de mecanismos y herramientas para resolver problemas de condiciones de carrera de datos y deadlocks, problemas que surgen por el mal uso de los mecanismos de sincronización. La verificación de propiedades interesantes de programas concurrentes presenta dificultades extras a los programas secuenciales debido al no-determinismo de su ejecución, lo cual resulta en una explosión en el número de posibles estados de programa, haciendo casi imposible un tratamiento manual o aún con la ayuda de computadoras. Algunos enfoques se basan en la creación de lenguajes de programación con construcciones con un alto nivel de abstración para expresar concurrencia y sincronización. Otros enfoques tratan de desarrollar técnicas y métodos de razonamiento para demostrar propiedades, algunos usan demostradores de teoremas generales, model-checking o algortimos específicos sobre un determinado sistema de tipos. Los enfoques basados en análisis estático liviano utilizan técnicas como interpretación abstracta para detectar ciertos tipos de errores, de una manera conservativa. Estas técnicas generalmente escalan lo suficiente para aplicarse en grandes proyectos de software pero los tipos de errores que pueden detectar es limitada. Algunas propiedades interesantes están relacionadas a condiciones de carrera y deadlocks, mientras que otros están interesados en problemas relacionados con la seguridad de los sistemas, como confidencialidad e integridad de datos. Los principales objetivos de esta propuesta es identificar algunas propiedades de interés a verificar en sistemas concurrentes y desarrollar técnicas y herramientas para realizar la verificación en forma automática. Para lograr estos objetivos, se pondrá énfasis en el estudio y desarrollo de sistemas de tipos como tipos dependientes, sistema de tipos y efectos, y tipos de efectos sensibles al flujo de datos y control. Estos sistemas de tipos se aplicarán a algunos modelos de programación concurrente como por ejemplo, en Simple Concurrent Object-Oriented Programming (SCOOP) y Java. Además se abordarán propiedades de seguridad usando sistemas de tipos específicos. Concurrent programming has remained a dificult task even for very experienced programmers. Concurrency research has provided a rich set of tools and mechanisms for dealing with data races and deadlocks that arise of incorrect use of synchronization. Verification of most interesting properties of concurrent programs is a very dificult task due to intrinsic non-deterministic nature of concurrency, resulting in a state explosion which make it almost imposible to be manually treat and it is a serious challenge to do that even with help of computers. Some approaches attempts create programming languages with higher levels of abstraction for expressing concurrency and synchronization. Other approaches try to develop reasoning methods to prove properties, either using general theorem provers, model-checking or specific algorithms on some type systems. The light-weight static analysis approach apply techniques like abstract interpretation to find certain kind of bugs in a conservative way. This techniques scale well to be applied in large software projects but the kind of bugs they may find are limited. Some interesting properties are related to data races and deadlocks, while others are interested in some security problems like confidentiality and integrity of data. The main goals of this proposal is to identify some interesting properties to verify in concurrent systems and develop techniques and tools to do full automatic verification. The main approach will be the application of type systems, as dependent types, type and effect systems, and flow-efect types. Those type systems will be applied to some models for concurrent programming as Simple Concurrent Object-Oriented Programming (SCOOP) and Java. Other goals include the analysis of security properties also using specific type systems.

Um chronographo de construção simples, permittindo registrar intervallos de tempo de 1 a 60 segundos

Descriptive memorial of a chronograph made from a common chronoscop (Eastman Timer). The chronoscop has been modified in order to permit to adjust distinct cog-wheels, everyone in its turn, to the axis of the seconds hand. Each of these cog-wheels holds a definite number of teeth accordingly with the time interval ones desire to record. A wheel with 20 teeth, for instance, is available for recording time in periods of each three seconds, another wheel with 6 teeth, will reckon time in intervals of 10 seconds and so on. These wheels may be interchanged most easily, which enables, with the same apparatus, to have at hand a time recorder for any time interval between one and sixty seconds. To register the time the apparatus is connected with a dry cell. A wire is attached to a binding post on the metal case of the apparatus, another wire being connected with an isolated binding post placed in front of the cog-wheel and fastened to a platinum point allowing open or shut the circuit, every time one of the cogs of the wheel comes into contact with this platinum point. A signal magnet is placed also in the circuit for writing the time intervals on the revolving drum.

Forecasting volatility using a continuous time model

This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of a continuous stochastic volatility model with two factors of volatility (SV2F) and compares it to those of GARCH and ARFIMA models. The empirical results show that the volatility forecasting ability of the SV2F model is better than that of the GARCH and ARFIMA models, especially when volatility seems to change pattern. We use ex-post volatility as a proxy of the realized volatility obtained from intraday data and the forecasts from the SV2F are calculated using the reprojection technique proposed by Gallant and Tauchen (1998).

Phosphorylated MAP1b, alias MAP5 and MAP1x, is involved in axonal growth and neuronal mitosis.

Microtubule-associated protein 1b, also named MAP5 and MAP1x, is essential for neuronal differentiation. In kitten cerebellum, this protein is partially phosphorylated. During early postnatal development, a phosphorylated form was localized prominently in growing parallel fibres and in mitotic spindles of neuroblasts in the germinal layer, whereas a non-phosphorylated MAP1b form was found in dendrites, perikarya and axons. The MAP1x epitope showed the same immunohistochemical distribution, as seen for phosphorylated MAP1b, while its recognition on immunoblots was independent of phosphorylation. It is concluded that post-translational modifications and conformation of MAP1b influence the immunological detection of MAP1b, and are essential in the neuronal growth processes and mitosis. The antibody against the phosphorylated MAP1b may represent a good marker to identify dividing neurones.

Experimental infection with Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis, and Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in the marmoset, Callithrix penicillata (Primates: Callithricidae)

Foureen marmosets (Callithrix penicillata) were inoculated intradermally with promastigotes and/or amastigotes of Leishmania (Viannia) brazilensis (L. (V) b.) strains MHOM/BR/83/LTB-300MHOM/BR/85/LTB-12 MHOM/BR/81/LTB-179 and MHOM/BR/82/LTB-250. The evolution of subsequent lesions was studied for 15 to 75 weeks post-inoculation (PI). All but of the L. (V) b. injected marmosets developed a cutaneous lesion at the point of inoculation after 3 to 9 weeks, characterized by the appearance of subcutaneous nodules containing parasites. parasites were isolated by culture (Difco Blood Agar) from all 11 positive animals. The maximum size of the lesions was variable and ranged between 37 mm² to 107 mm². Ulceration of primary nodules became evident after 3 to 12 weeks in all infected marmosets, but was faster and larger in 5 of the 11 animals. The active lesions persisted in 9 out of 11 Callithrix until the en of the observation period, which varied from 15-75 weeks. In 3 animals spontaneous healing of their lesions (13 to 25 weeks, PI) was observed buth with cryptic parasitism. In another 2 infected animals there was regression followed by reactivation of the cutaneous lesions. The appearance of smaller satellite lesions adjacent to primary ones, as well as metastatic lesions to the ear lobes, were documented in 2 animals. Promastigotes of L. (Leishmania) amazonensis (L.(L)a.) MHOM/BR/77/LTB-16 were inoculated in 1 marmoset. This animal remained chronically infected for 6 months and the lesions developed in a similar manner to L.(V)b. infected marmosets. No significant differences in clinical and parasitological behaviour were observed between promastigote or amastigote derived infections of the 2 species. Both produced chronic, long lasting lesions which eventually healed. The same was true for parameters of size and ulceration. Skin tests converted to parasite in 11 of 15 inected masmosets and in 10 of 12 parasite positive animnals. Moderate levels of circulating antibodies were also observed by IFAT /IgG assays. In spite of the failure to reproduce the mucosal form of the disease, an important aspect of the Callithrix model in experimental cutaneous leishmaniasis lies in the reproduction of 2 clinical events that are common in humans, namely, the chronic ulceration and spontaneous healing of the lesions.

Postmortem computed tomography angiography, contrast medium administration and toxicological analyses in urine.

Postmortem angiography methods that use water soluble or lipid soluble liquid contrast compounds may potentially modify the composition of fluid-based biological samples and thus influence toxicological findings. In this study, we investigated whether toxicological investigations performed in urine collected prior to and post angiography using Angiofil? mixed with paraffin oil are characterized by different qualitative or quantitative results. In addition, we studied whether diluting samples with 1% and 3% contrast medium solution may modify molecule concentration. A postmortem angiography group consisting of 50 cases and a postmortem group without angiography consisting of 50 cases were formed. In the first group, toxicological investigations were performed in urine samples collected prior to and post angiography as well as in undiluted and diluted samples. In the second group, analyses were performed in undiluted and diluted urine, bile, gastric content, cerebrospinal and pericardial fluids collected during autopsy. The preliminary results indicate that differences may be observed between urine samples collected prior to and post angiography in the number of identified molecules in relation to specific cases. Analyses performed in diluted samples failed to reveal differences that might potentially alter the interpretation of toxicological results in all analyzed specimens for nearly all molecules, except for tetrahydrocannabinol and its metabolites. Though these findings suggest that toxicology might be effectively performed, in very special cases and for a large number of molecules, in biological samples collected after angiography, it remains recommendable to collect biological fluids for toxicology prior to contrast medium injection.

Variable viral clearance despite adequate ganciclovir plasma levels during valganciclovir treatment for cytomegalovirus disease in D+/R- transplant recipients.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Valganciclovir, the oral prodrug of ganciclovir, has been demonstrated equivalent to iv ganciclovir for CMV disease treatment in solid organ transplant recipients. Variability in ganciclovir exposure achieved with valganciclovir could be implicated as a contributing factor for explaining variations in the therapeutic response. This prospective observational study aimed to correlate clinical and cytomegalovirus (CMV) viral load response (DNAemia) with ganciclovir plasma concentrations in patients treated with valganciclovir for CMV infection/disease. METHODS: Seven CMV D+/R- transplant recipients (4 kidney, 2 liver and 1 heart) were treated with valganciclovir (initial dose was 900-1800 mg/day for 3-6.5 weeks, followed by 450-900 mg/day for 2-9 weeks). DNAemia was monitored by real time quantitative PCR and ganciclovir plasma concentration was measured at trough (Ctrough) and 3 h after drug administration (C3h) by HPLC. RESULTS: Four patients presented with CMV syndrome, two had CMV tissue-invasive disease after prophylaxis discontinuation, and one liver recipient was treated pre-emptively for asymptomatic rising CMV viral load 5 weeks post-transplantation in the absence of prophylaxis. CMV DNAemia decreased during the first week of treatment in all recipients except in one patient (median decrease: -1.2 log copies/mL, range: -1.8 to 0) despite satisfactory ganciclovir exposure (AUC0-12 = 48 mg.h/L, range for the 7 patients: 40-118 mg.h/L). Viral clearance was obtained in five patients after a median of time of 34 days (range: 28-82 days). Two patients had recurrent CMV disease despite adequate ganciclovir exposure (65 mg.h/L, range: 44-118 mg.h/L). CONCLUSIONS: Valganciclovir treatment for CMV infection/disease in D+/R- transplant recipients can thus result in variable viral clearance despite adequate ganciclovir plasma concentrations, probably correlating inversely with anti-CMV immune responses after primary infection.

Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.