Exploring the land–ocean contrast in convective vigor using islands

Moist convection is well known to be generally more intense over continental than maritime regions, with larger updraft velocities, graupel, and lightning production. This study explores the transition from maritime to continental convection by comparing the trends in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) radar and microwave (37 and 85 GHz) observations over islands of increasing size to those simulated by a cloud-resolving model. The observed storms were essentially maritime over islands of <100 km2 and continental over islands >10 000 km2, with a gradual transition in between. Equivalent radar and microwave quantities were simulated from cloud-resolving runs of the Weather Research and Forecasting model via offline radiation codes. The model configuration was idealized, with islands represented by regions of uniform surface heat flux without orography, using a range of initial sounding conditions without strong horizontal winds or aerosols. Simulated storm strength varied with initial sounding, as expected, but also increased sharply with island size in a manner similar to observations. Stronger simulated storms were associated with higher concentrations of large hydrometeors. Although biases varied with different ice microphysical schemes, the trend was similar for all three schemes tested and was also seen in 2D and 3D model configurations. The successful reproduction of the trend with such idealized forcing supports previous suggestions that mesoscale variation in surface heating—rather than any difference in humidity, aerosol, or other aspects of the atmospheric state—is the main reason that convection is more intense over continents and large islands than over oceans. Some dynamical storm aspects, notably the peak rainfall and minimum surface pressure low, were more sensitive to surface forcing than to the atmospheric sounding or ice scheme. Large hydrometeor concentrations and simulated microwave and radar signatures, however, were at least as sensitive to initial humidity levels as to surface forcing and were more sensitive to the ice scheme. Issues with running the TRMM simulator on 2D simulations are discussed, but they appear to be less serious than sensitivities to model microphysics, which were similar in 2D and 3D. This supports the further use of 2D simulations to economically explore modeling uncertainties.

Power transmission network simulation for fault diagnosis

The authors discuss an implementation of an object oriented (OO) fault simulator and its use within an adaptive fault diagnostic system. The simulator models the flow of faults around a power network, reporting switchgear indications and protection messages that would be expected in a real fault scenario. The simulator has been used to train an adaptive fault diagnostic system; results and implications are discussed.

Simulating dynamic crop growth with an adapted land surface model – JULES-SUCROS: model development and validation

The increasing demand for ecosystem services, in conjunction with climate change, is expected to signif- icantly alter terrestrial ecosystems. In order to evaluate the sustainability of land and water resources, there is a need for a better understanding of the relationships between crop production, land surface characteristics and the energy and water cycles. These relationships are analysed using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). JULES includes the full hydrological cycle and vegetation effects on the energy, water, and carbon fluxes. However, this model currently only simulates land surface processes in natural ecosystems. An adapted version of JULES for agricultural ecosystems, called JULES-SUCROS has therefore been developed. In addition to overall model improvements, JULES-SUCROS includes a dynamic crop growth structure that fully fits within and builds upon the biogeochemical modelling framework for natural vegetation. Specific agro-ecosystem features such as the development of yield-bearing organs and the phenological cycle from sowing till harvest have been included in the model. This paper describes the structure of JULES-SUCROS and evaluates the fluxes simulated with this model against FLUXNET measurements at 6 European sites. We show that JULES-SUCROS significantly improves the correlation between simulated and observed fluxes over cropland and captures well the spatial and temporal vari- ability of the growth conditions in Europe. Simulations with JULES-SUCROS highlight the importance of vegetation structure and phenology, and the impact they have on land–atmosphere interactions.

Near real-time flood detection in urban and rural areas using high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar images

A near real-time flood detection algorithm giving a synoptic overview of the extent of flooding in both urban and rural areas, and capable of working during night-time and day-time even if cloud was present, could be a useful tool for operational flood relief management. The paper describes an automatic algorithm using high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite data that builds on existing approaches, including the use of image segmentation techniques prior to object classification to cope with the very large number of pixels in these scenes. Flood detection in urban areas is guided by the flood extent derived in adjacent rural areas. The algorithm assumes that high resolution topographic height data are available for at least the urban areas of the scene, in order that a SAR simulator may be used to estimate areas of radar shadow and layover. The algorithm proved capable of detecting flooding in rural areas using TerraSAR-X with good accuracy, classifying 89% of flooded pixels correctly, with an associated false positive rate of 6%. Of the urban water pixels visible to TerraSAR-X, 75% were correctly detected, with a false positive rate of 24%. If all urban water pixels were considered, including those in shadow and layover regions, these figures fell to 57% and 18% respectively.

Incorporation of water vapour transfer in the JULES Land Surface Model: implications for key soil variables and land surface fluxes

This study focuses on the mechanisms underlying water and heat transfer in upper soil layers, and their effects on soil physical prognostic variables and the individual components of the energy balance. The skill of the JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) land surface model (LSM) to simulate key soil variables, such as soil moisture content and surface temperature, and fluxes such as evaporation, is investigated. The Richards equation for soil water transfer, as used in most LSMs, was updated by incorporating isothermal and thermal water vapour transfer. The model was tested for three sites representative of semi-arid and temperate arid climates: the Jornada site (New Mexico, USA), Griffith site (Australia) and Audubon site (Arizona, USA). Water vapour flux was found to contribute significantly to the water and heat transfer in the upper soil layers. This was mainly due to isothermal vapour diffusion; thermal vapour flux also played a role at the Jornada site just after rainfall events. Inclusion of water vapour flux had an effect on the diurnal evolution of evaporation, soil moisture content and surface temperature. The incorporation of additional processes, such as water vapour flux among others, into LSMs may improve the coupling between the upper soil layers and the atmosphere, which in turn could increase the reliability of weather and climate predictions.

An exploratory study into the putative prebiotic activity of fructans isolated from Agave angustifolia and the associated anticancer activity

Linear Inulin type fructan (ITF) prebiotics have a putative role in the prevention of colorectal cancer, whereas relatively little is known about branched fructans. This study aims to investigate the fermentation properties and potential prebiotic activity of branched fructans derived from Agave angustifolia Haw, using the Simulator of Human Intestinal Microbial Ecosystem (SHIME) model. The proximal, transverse and distal vessels were used to investigate fructan fermentation throughout the colon and to assess the alterations of the microbial composition and fermentation metabolites (short chain fatty acids and ammonia). The influence on bioactivity of the fermentation supernatant was assessed by MTT, Comet and transepithelial electrical resistance (TER), respectively. Addition of Agave fructan to the SHIME model significantly increased (P<0.05), bifidobacteria populations (proximal and transverse), SCFA concentrations (proximal, transverse and distal) and decreased ammonia concentrations in the distal vessel. Furthermore, the fermentation supernatant significantly (P<0.05) increased the TER of a Caco-2 cell monolayer (%) and decreased fluorescein-based paracellular flux, suggesting enhanced barrier function and reduced epithelial barrier permeability (proximal and distal vessel). While cytotoxicity and genotoxicity remained unaltered in response to the presence of Agave fructans. To conclude, branched Agave fructans show indications of prebiotic activity, particularly in relation to colon health by exerting a positive influence on gut barrier function, an important aspect of colon carcinogenesis.

Measuring the value of “all play and no work”: can rigorous assessment of simulation games drive innovative teaching in construction?

The construction field is dynamic and dominated by complex, ill-defined problems for which myriad possible solutions exist. Teaching students to solve construction-related problems requires an understanding of the nature of these complex problems as well as the implementation of effective instructional strategies to address them. Traditional approaches to teaching construction planning and management have long been criticized for presenting students primarily with well-defined problems - an approach inconsistent with the challenges encountered in the industry. However, growing evidence suggests that employing innovative teaching approaches, such as interactive simulation games, offers more active, hands-on and problem-based learning opportunities for students to synthesize and test acquired knowledge more closely aligned with real-life construction scenarios. Simulation games have demonstrated educational value in increasing student problem solving skills and motivation through critical attributes such as interaction and feedback-supported active learning. Nevertheless, broad acceptance of simulation games in construction engineering education remains limited. While recognizing benefits, research focused on the role of simulation games in educational settings lacks a unified approach to developing, implementing and evaluating these games. To address this gap, this paper provides an overview of the challenges associated with evaluating the effectiveness of simulation games in construction education that still impede their wide adoption. An overview of the current status, as well as the results from recently implemented Virtual Construction Simulator (VCS) game at Penn State provide lessons learned, and are intended to guide future efforts in developing interactive simulation games to reach their full potential.

Impact of the modal aerosol scheme GLOMAP-mode on aerosol forcing in the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model

The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM) includes two aerosol schemes: the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies in Climate (CLASSIC), and the new Global Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP-mode). GLOMAP-mode is a modal aerosol microphysics scheme that simulates not only aerosol mass but also aerosol number, represents internally-mixed particles, and includes aerosol microphysical processes such as nucleation. In this study, both schemes provide hindcast simulations of natural and anthropogenic aerosol species for the period 2000–2006. HadGEM simulations of the aerosol optical depth using GLOMAP-mode compare better than CLASSIC against a data-assimilated aerosol re-analysis and aerosol ground-based observations. Because of differences in wet deposition rates, GLOMAP-mode sulphate aerosol residence time is two days longer than CLASSIC sulphate aerosols, whereas black carbon residence time is much shorter. As a result, CLASSIC underestimates aerosol optical depths in continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere and likely overestimates absorption in remote regions. Aerosol direct and first indirect radiative forcings are computed from simulations of aerosols with emissions for the year 1850 and 2000. In 1850, GLOMAP-mode predicts lower aerosol optical depths and higher cloud droplet number concentrations than CLASSIC. Consequently, simulated clouds are much less susceptible to natural and anthropogenic aerosol changes when the microphysical scheme is used. In particular, the response of cloud condensation nuclei to an increase in dimethyl sulphide emissions becomes a factor of four smaller. The combined effect of different 1850 baselines, residence times, and abilities to affect cloud droplet number, leads to substantial differences in the aerosol forcings simulated by the two schemes. GLOMAP-mode finds a presentday direct aerosol forcing of −0.49Wm−2 on a global average, 72% stronger than the corresponding forcing from CLASSIC. This difference is compensated by changes in first indirect aerosol forcing: the forcing of −1.17Wm−2 obtained with GLOMAP-mode is 20% weaker than with CLASSIC. Results suggest that mass-based schemes such as CLASSIC lack the necessary sophistication to provide realistic input to aerosol-cloud interaction schemes. Furthermore, the importance of the 1850 baseline highlights how model skill in predicting present-day aerosol does not guarantee reliable forcing estimates. Those findings suggest that the more complex representation of aerosol processes in microphysical schemes improves the fidelity of simulated aerosol forcings.

Detection of flooded urban areas in high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar images using double scattering

Flooding is a particular hazard in urban areas worldwide due to the increased risks to life and property in these regions. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors are often used to image flooding because of their all-weather day-night capability, and now possess sufficient resolution to image urban flooding. The flood extents extracted from the images may be used for flood relief management and improved urban flood inundation modelling. A difficulty with using SAR for urban flood detection is that, due to its side-looking nature, substantial areas of urban ground surface may not be visible to the SAR due to radar layover and shadow caused by buildings and taller vegetation. This paper investigates whether urban flooding can be detected in layover regions (where flooding may not normally be apparent) using double scattering between the (possibly flooded) ground surface and the walls of adjacent buildings. The method estimates double scattering strengths using a SAR image in conjunction with a high resolution LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) height map of the urban area. A SAR simulator is applied to the LiDAR data to generate maps of layover and shadow, and estimate the positions of double scattering curves in the SAR image. Observations of double scattering strengths were compared to the predictions from an electromagnetic scattering model, for both the case of a single image containing flooding, and a change detection case in which the flooded image was compared to an un-flooded image of the same area acquired with the same radar parameters. The method proved successful in detecting double scattering due to flooding in the single-image case, for which flooded double scattering curves were detected with 100% classification accuracy (albeit using a small sample set) and un-flooded curves with 91% classification accuracy. The same measures of success were achieved using change detection between flooded and un-flooded images. Depending on the particular flooding situation, the method could lead to improved detection of flooding in urban areas.

PERSiST: a flexible rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit for use with the INCA family of models

Runoff generation processes and pathways vary widely between catchments. Credible simulations of solute and pollutant transport in surface waters are dependent on models which facilitate appropriate, catchment-specific representations of perceptual models of the runoff generation process. Here, we present a flexible, semi-distributed landscape-scale rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit suitable for simulating a broad range of user-specified perceptual models of runoff generation and stream flow occurring in different climatic regions and landscape types. PERSiST (the Precipitation, Evapotranspiration and Runoff Simulator for Solute Transport) is designed for simulating present-day hydrology; projecting possible future effects of climate or land use change on runoff and catchment water storage; and generating hydrologic inputs for the Integrated Catchments (INCA) family of models. PERSiST has limited data requirements and is calibrated using observed time series of precipitation, air temperature and runoff at one or more points in a river network. Here, we apply PERSiST to the river Thames in the UK and describe a Monte Carlo tool for model calibration, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

The Met Office unified model global atmosphere 4.0 and JULES global land 4.0 configurations

We describe Global Atmosphere 4.0 (GA4.0) and Global Land 4.0 (GL4.0): configurations of the Met Office Unified Model and JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) community land surface model developed for use in global and regional climate research and weather prediction activities. GA4.0 and GL4.0 are based on the previous GA3.0 and GL3.0 configurations, with the inclusion of developments made by the Met Office and its collaborators during its annual development cycle. This paper provides a comprehensive technical and scientific description of GA4.0 and GL4.0 as well as details of how these differ from their predecessors. We also present the results of some initial evaluations of their performance. Overall, performance is comparable with that of GA3.0/GL3.0; the updated configurations include improvements to the science of several parametrisation schemes, however, and will form a baseline for further ongoing development.

Aircraft routing with minimal climate impact: the REACT4C climate cost function modelling approach (V1.0)

In addition to CO2, the climate impact of aviation is strongly influenced by non-CO2 emissions, such as nitrogen oxides, influencing ozone and methane, and water vapour, which can lead to the formation of persistent contrails in ice-supersaturated regions. Because these non-CO2 emission effects are characterised by a short lifetime, their climate impact largely depends on emission location and time; that is to say, emissions in certain locations (or times) can lead to a greater climate impact (even on the global average) than the same emission in other locations (or times). Avoiding these climate-sensitive regions might thus be beneficial to climate. Here, we describe a modelling chain for investigating this climate impact mitigation option. This modelling chain forms a multi-step modelling approach, starting with the simulation of the fate of emissions released at a certain location and time (time-region grid points). This is performed with the chemistry–climate model EMAC, extended via the two submodels AIRTRAC (V1.0) and CONTRAIL (V1.0), which describe the contribution of emissions to the composition of the atmosphere and to contrail formation, respectively. The impact of emissions from the large number of time-region grid points is efficiently calculated by applying a Lagrangian scheme. EMAC also includes the calculation of radiative impacts, which are, in a second step, the input to climate metric formulas describing the global climate impact of the emission at each time-region grid point. The result of the modelling chain comprises a four-dimensional data set in space and time, which we call climate cost functions and which describes the global climate impact of an emission at each grid point and each point in time. In a third step, these climate cost functions are used in an air traffic simulator (SAAM) coupled to an emission tool (AEM) to optimise aircraft trajectories for the North Atlantic region. Here, we describe the details of this new modelling approach and show some example results. A number of sensitivity analyses are performed to motivate the settings of individual parameters. A stepwise sanity check of the results of the modelling chain is undertaken to demonstrate the plausibility of the climate cost functions.

The representation of the West-African Monsoon vertical cloud structure in the Met Office Unified Model: an evaluation with CloudSat

Weather and climate model simulations of the West African Monsoon (WAM) have generally poor representation of the rainfall distribution and monsoon circulation because key processes, such as clouds and convection, are poorly characterized. The vertical distribution of cloud and precipitation during the WAM are evaluated in Met Office Unified Model simulations against CloudSat observations. Simulations were run at 40-km and 12-km horizontal grid length using a convection parameterization scheme and at 12-km, 4-km, and 1.5-km grid length with the convection scheme effectively switched off, to study the impact of model resolution and convection parameterization scheme on the organisation of tropical convection. Radar reflectivity is forward-modelled from the model cloud fields using the CloudSat simulator to present a like-with-like comparison with the CloudSat radar observations. The representation of cloud and precipitation at 12-km horizontal grid length improves dramatically when the convection parameterization is switched off, primarily because of a reduction in daytime (moist) convection. Further improvement is obtained when reducing model grid length to 4 km or 1.5 km, especially in the representation of thin anvil and mid-level cloud, but three issues remain in all model configurations. Firstly, all simulations underestimate the fraction of anvils with cloud top height above 12 km, which can be attributed to too low ice water contents in the model compared to satellite retrievals. Secondly, the model consistently detrains mid-level cloud too close to the freezing level, compared to higher altitudes in CloudSat observations. Finally, there is too much low-level cloud cover in all simulations and this bias was not improved when adjusting the rainfall parameters in the microphysics scheme. To improve model simulations of the WAM, more detailed and in-situ observations of the dynamics and microphysics targeting these non-precipitating cloud types are required.

A randomised, double- blind, cross-over study investigating the prebiotic effect of agave fructans in healthy human subjects

This placebo-controlled, randomised, double-blind, cross-over human feeding study aimed to determine the prebiotic effect of agave fructans. A total of thirty-eight volunteers completed this trial. The treatment consisted of 3 weeks' supplementation with 5 g/d of prebiotic agave fructan (Predilife) or equivalent placebo (maltodextrin), followed by a 2-week washout period following which subjects were crossed over to alternate the treatment arm for 3 weeks followed by a 2-week washout. Faecal samples were collected at baseline, on the last day of treatment (days 22 and 58) and washout (days 36 and 72), respectively. Changes in faecal bacterial populations, SCFA and secretory IgA were assessed using fluorescent in situ hybridisation, GC and ELISA, respectively. Bowel movements, stool consistencies, abdominal comfort and mood changes were evaluated by a recorded daily questionnaire. In parallel, the effect of agave fructans on different regions of the colon using a three-stage continuous culture simulator was studied. Predilife significantly increased faecal bifidobacteria (log10 9·6 (sd 0·4)) and lactobacilli (log10 7·7 (sd 0·8)) compared with placebo (log10 9·2 (sd 0·4); P = 0·00) (log10 7·4 (sd 0·7); P = 0·000), respectively. No change was observed for other bacterial groups tested, SCFA, secretory IgA, and PGE2 concentrations between the treatment and placebo. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis analysis indicated that bacterial communities were randomly dispersed and no significant differences were observed between Predilife and placebo treatments. The in vitro models showed similar increases in bifidobacterial and lactobacilli populations to that observed with the in vivo trial. To conclude, agave fructans are well tolerated in healthy human subjects and increased bifidobacteria and lactobacilli numbers in vitro and in vivo but did not influence other products of fermentation

Simulating the effects of mid- to upper-tropospheric clouds on microwave emissions in EC-Earth using COSP

In this work, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison (CFMIP) Observation Simulation Package (COSP) is expanded to include scattering and emission effects of clouds and precipitation at passive microwave frequencies. This represents an advancement over the official version of COSP (version 1.4.0) in which only clear-sky brightness temperatures are simulated. To highlight the potential utility of this new microwave simulator, COSP results generated using the climate model EC-Earth's version 3 atmosphere as input are compared with Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) channel (190.311 GHz) observations. Specifically, simulated seasonal brightness temperatures (TB) are contrasted with MHS observations for the period December 2005 to November 2006 to identify possible biases in EC-Earth's cloud and atmosphere fields. The EC-Earth's atmosphere closely reproduces the microwave signature of many of the major large-scale and regional scale features of the atmosphere and surface. Moreover, greater than 60 % of the simulated TB are within 3 K of the NOAA-18 observations. However, COSP is unable to simulate sufficiently low TB in areas of frequent deep convection. Within the Tropics, the model's atmosphere can yield an underestimation of TB by nearly 30 K for cloudy areas in the ITCZ. Possible reasons for this discrepancy include both incorrect amount of cloud ice water in the model simulations and incorrect ice particle scattering assumptions used in the COSP microwave forward model. These multiple sources of error highlight the non-unique nature of the simulated satellite measurements, a problem exacerbated by the fact that EC-Earth lacks detailed micro-physical parameters necessary for accurate forward model calculations. Such issues limit the robustness of our evaluation and suggest a general note of caution when making COSP-satellite observation evaluations.