Demographic Transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility

The effect of mortality reductions on fertility is one of the main mechanisms stressed by the recent growth literature in order to explain demographic transitions. We analyze the empirical relevance of this mechanism based on the experience of all countries since 1960. We distinguish between the effects on gross and net fertility, take into account the dynamic nature of the relationship and control for alternative explanatory factors and for endogeneity. Our results show that mortality plays a large role in fertility reductions, that the change in fertility behavior comes with a lag of about 10 years and that both net and gross fertility are affected. We find comparatively little support for explanations of the demographic transition based on economic development or technological change.

Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy for the OECD

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981-2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data.

North Sea Oil and Genuine Saving in the Scottish Economy

The World Bank has published estimates of sustainability of consumption paths by adjusting saving rates to take account of the depletion of non-renewable resources. During the period of North Sea oil production Scotland has been in a fiscal union with the rest of the UK. The present paper adjusts the World Bank data to produce separate genuine saving estimates for Scotland and the rest of the UK for 1970-2009, based on a ‘derivation’ principle for oil revenues. The calculations indicate that Scotland has had a negative genuine saving rate for most of the period of exploitation of North Sea oil resources, with genuine saving being positive in the rest of the UK during this period.

Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy: the OECD 1981-2003

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981-2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data.

Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy: the OECD 1981-2003

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981-2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data.

North Sea Oil and Genuine Saving in the Scottish Economy

The World Bank has published estimates of sustainability of consumption paths by adjusting saving rates to take account of the depletion of non-renewable resources. During the period of North Sea oil production Scotland has been in a fiscal union with the rest of the UK. The present paper adjusts the World Bank data to produce separate genuine saving estimates for Scotland and the rest of the UK for 1970-2009, based on a ‘derivation’ principle for oil revenues. The calculations indicate that Scotland has had a negative genuine saving rate for most of the period of exploitation of North Sea oil resources, with genuine saving being positive in the rest of the UK during this period.

Estudio de la patogenia de clostridium perfringens tipo b y d en pequeños rumiantes

Proyecto de investigación realizado a partir de una estancia en la University of California, Davis, Estados Unidos, entre octubre y desembre del 2007. Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens) tipo C causa enteritis necrotizante en humanos y enterotoxemias en animales domésticos. Esta bacteria produce beta toxina (CPB), alfa toxina (CPA) y perfringolisina (PFO) durante la fase logarítimca de crecimiento. En nuestro estudio se evaluó la relación entre CPB y la virulencia del aislamiento CN3685 de Cl. perfringens tipo C en un modelo caprino con inoculación intraduodenal. De manera similar a la infección natural por C. perfringens tipo C, el cultivo vegetativo del tipo salvaje de CN3685 provocó dolor abdominal, diarrea hemorrágica, enteritis necrotizante, colitis, edema pulmonar, hidropericardio y muerte en 2 cabritos, a las 24 horas postinoculación. Por otro lado, mediante tecnología Targe Tron® se prepararon mutantes isogénicos carentes de toxina CPB, los cuales fueron inoculados siguiendo el modelo anteriormente descrito. Los resultados mostraron que estos mutantes carecían de todo tipo de virulencia, ya que no se observaron signos clínicos durante las primeras 24 h postinoculación ni tampoco lesiones macroscópicas ni histopatológicas. Posteriormente se desarrolló un modelo experimental similar a los anteriores, en los que se había repuesto la capacidad de producción de CPB en los mutantes. Los dos animales inoculados con estos mutantes complementarios presentaron signos clínicos y lesiones similares a las observadas en el caso del tipo salvaje. Estos resultados muestran que la toxina CPB es necesaria y suficiente para inducir la enfermedad causada por CN3685. Esto a su vez, demuestra la importancia de este tipo de toxina en la patogénesis de C. perfringems tìpo C.

Recognition of RNA virus by RIG-I results in activation of CARD9 and inflammasome signaling for interleukin 1 beta production.

Interleukin 1 beta (IL-1 beta) is a potent proinflammatory factor during viral infection. Its production is tightly controlled by transcription of Il1b dependent on the transcription factor NF-kappaB and subsequent processing of pro-IL-1 beta by an inflammasome. However, the sensors and mechanisms that facilitate RNA virus-induced production of IL-1 beta are not well defined. Here we report a dual role for the RNA helicase RIG-I in RNA virus-induced proinflammatory responses. Whereas RIG-I-mediated activation of NF-kappaB required the signaling adaptor MAVS and a complex of the adaptors CARD9 and Bcl-10, RIG-I also bound to the adaptor ASC to trigger caspase-1-dependent inflammasome activation by a mechanism independent of MAVS, CARD9 and the Nod-like receptor protein NLRP3. Our results identify the CARD9-Bcl-10 module as an essential component of the RIG-I-dependent proinflammatory response and establish RIG-I as a sensor able to activate the inflammasome in response to certain RNA viruses.

Nominal Stability and Financial Globalization

Over the past four decades, advanced economies experienced a large growth in gross external portfolio positions. This phenomenon has been described as Financial Globalization. Over roughly the same time frame, most of these countries also saw a substantial fall in the level and variability of inflation. Many economists have conjectured that financial globalization contributed to the improved performance in the level and predictability of inflation. In this paper, we explore the causal link running in the opposite direction. We show that a monetary policy rule which reduces inflation variability leads to an increase in the size of gross external positions, both in equity and bond portfolios. This appears to be a robust prediction of open economy macro models with endogenous portfolio choice. It holds across different modeling specifications and parameterizations. We also present preliminary empirical evidence which shows a negative relationship between inflation volatility and the size of gross external positions.

Factors Affecting the Financial Success of Motion Pictures: What is the Role of Star Power?

In the mid-1940s, American film industry was on its way up to its golden era as studios started mass-producing iconic feature films. The escalating increase in popularity of Hollywood stars was actively suggested for its direct links to box office success by academics. Using data collected in 2007, this paper carries out an empirical investigation on how different factors, including star power, affect the revenue of ‘home-run’ movies in Hollywood. Due to the subjective nature of star power, two different approaches were used: (1) number of nominations and wins of Academy Awards by the key players, and (2) average lifetime gross revenue of films involving the key players preceding the sample year. It is found that number of Academy awards nominations and wins was not statistically significant in generating box office revenue, whereas star power based on the second approach was statistically significant. Other significant factors were critics’ reviews, screen coverage and top distributor, while number of Academy awards, MPAA-rating, seasonality, being a sequel and popular genre were not statistically significant.

Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation over the Business Cycle

This paper studies unemployed workers’ decisions to change occupations, and their impact on fluctuations in aggregate unemployment and its underlying duration distribution. We develop an analytically and computationally tractable stochastic equilibrium model with heterogenous labor markets. In this model three different types of unemployment arise: search, rest and reallocation unemployment. We document new evidence on unemployed workers’ gross occupational mobility and use it to calibrate the model. We show that rest unemployment is the main driver of unemployment fluctuations over the business cycle and causes cyclical unemployment to be highly volatile. The resulting unemployment duration distribution generated by the model responds realistically to the business cycle, creating substantial longer-term unemployment in downturns. Finally, rest unemployment also makes our model simultaneously consistent with procyclical occupational mobility of the unemployed, countercyclical job separations into unemployment and a negatively-sloped Beveridge curve.

Competing with Asking Prices

In many markets, sellers advertise their good with an asking price. This is a price at which the seller will take his good off the market and trade immediately, though it is understood that a buyer can submit an offer below the asking price and that this offer may be accepted if the seller receives no better offers. Despite their prevalence in a variety of real world markets, asking prices have received little attention in the academic literature. We construct an environment with a few simple, realistic ingredients and demonstrate that using an asking price is optimal: it is the pricing mechanism that maximizes sellers’ revenues and it implements the efficient outcome in equilibrium. We provide a complete characterization of this equilibrium and use it to explore the positive implications of this pricing mechanism for transaction prices and allocations.

Competing with Asking Prices

In many markets, sellers advertise their good with an asking price. This is a price at which the seller will take his good off the market and trade immediately, though it is understood that a buyer can submit an offer below the asking price and that this offer may be accepted if the seller receives no better offers. Despite their prevalence in a variety of real world markets, asking prices have received little attention in the academic literature. We construct an environment with a few simple, realistic ingredients and demonstrate that using an asking price is optimal: it is the pricing mechanism that maximizes sellers' revenues and it implements the efficient outcome in equilibrium. We provide a complete characterization of this equilibrium and use it to explore the implications of this pricing mechanism for transaction prices and allocations.

The Political Economy of Resource Rent Distribution

I model the link between political regime and level of diversification following a windfall of natural resource revenues. The explanatory variables I make use of are the political support functions embedded within each type of regime and the disparate levels of discretion, openness, transparency, and accountability of government. I show that a democratic government seeks to maximize the long-term consumption path of the representative consumer, in order to maximize its chances of re-election, while an authoritarian government, in the absence of any electoral mechanism of accountability, seeks to buy off and entrench a group of special interests loyal to the government and potent enough to ensure its short-term survival. Essentially the contrast in the approaches towards resource rent distribution comes down to a variation in political weights on aggregate welfare and rentierist special interests endogenized by distinct political support functions.