Portfolio optimization in the energy market

Let’s put ourselves in the shoes of an energy company. Our fleet of electricity production plants mainly includes gas, hydroelectric and waste-to-energy plants. We also sold contracts for the supply of gas and electricity. For each year we have to plan the trading of the volumes needed by the plants and customers: better to fix the price of these volumes in advance with the so-called forward contracts, instead of waiting for the delivery months, exposing ourselves to price uncertainty. Here’s the thing: trying to keep uncertainty under control in a market that has never shown such extreme scenarios as in recent years: a pandemic, a worsening climate crisis and a war that is affecting economies around the world have made the energy market more volatile than ever. How to make decisions in such uncertain contexts? There is an optimization problem: given a year, we need to choose the optimal planning of volume trading times, to meet the needs of our portfolio at the best prices, taking into account the liquidity constraints given by the market and the risk constraints imposed by the company. Algorithms are needed for the generation of market scenarios over a finite time horizon, that is, a probabilistic distribution that allows a view of all the dates between now and the end of the year of interest. Algorithms are needed to solve the optimization problem: we have proposed more than one and compared them; a very simple one, which avoids considering part of the complexity, moving on to a scenario approach and finally a reinforcement learning approach.

Relationship between phenotype and environment in marine calcifying organisms: exploring growth and shell properties of different mollusks species in past and modern scenario

Coastal ecosystems represent an inestimable source of biodiversity, being among the most productive areas on the planet. Despite the great ecological and economic value of those environments, many threats endanger the species living in this ecosystem, like the rapid warming and the sea acidification, among many other. Benthic calcifying organisms (e.g. mollusks, corals and echinoderms) in particular, are among the most exposed to those hazards. These organisms use calcium carbonate as a structural and protective material through the biomineralization process, biologically controlled by the organism, but nevertheless, strongly influenced by the environmental surroundings. Evaluating how a changing environment can influence the process of biomineralization is critical to understand how those species of great ecological and economic importance will face the ongoing climate change. This thesis investigates the mechanism of biomineralization in different mollusks’ species of the Adriatic Sea, providing detailed descriptions of shells skeletal, biometric and growth parameters. Applying a multidisciplinary and multi-scale research approach, the influence of external environmental factors on the process of shell formation has been investigated. To achieve this purpose analysis were conducted both on current populations and on fossil remain, which allows to investigate ecological responses to past climate transitions. Mollusks’ shells in fact are one of the best tools to understand climate change in the past, present and future, since they record the environmental conditions prevailed during their life, reflected on the geochemical properties, microstructure and growth of the shell. This approach allowed to overcome the time scale limit imposed by field and laboratory survey, and better understand species long term adaptive response to changing environment, a crucial issue to define proper conservation and management strategies. Furthermore, the investigation of fossil record of mollusks assemblages offered the opportunity to evaluate the long-term biotic response to anthropogenic stressors in the north Adriatic Sea.

Methodologies for the analysis and interpretation of environmental datasets from areas interested by offshore activities

The exploitation of hydrocarbon reservoirs by the oil and gas industries represents one of the most relevant and concerning anthropic stressor in various marine areas worldwide and the presence of extractive structures can have severe consequences on the marine environment. Environmental monitoring surveys are carried out to monitor the effects and impacts of offshore energy facilities. Macrobenthic communities, inhabiting the soft-bottom, represent a key component of these surveys given their great responsiveness to natural and anthropic changes. A comprehensive collection of monitoring data from four Italian seas was used to investigate distributional pattern of macrozoobenthos assemblages confirming a high spatial variability in relation to the environmental variables analyzed. Since these datasets could represent a powerful tool for the industrial and scientific research, the steps and standardized procedures needed to obtain robust and comparable high-quality data were investigated and outlined. Over recent years, decommissioning of old platforms is a growing topic in this sector, involving many actors in the various decision-making processes. A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, specific for the Adriatic Sea, was developed to investigate the impacts of decommissioning of a gas platform on environmental and socio-economic aspects, to select the best decommissioning scenario. From the scenarios studied, the most impacting one has resulted to be total removal, affecting all the faunal component considered in the study. Currently, the European nations are increasing the production of energy from offshore wind farms with an exponential expansion. A comparative study of methodologies used five countries of the North Sea countries was carried out to investigate the best approaches to monitor the effects of wind farms on the benthic communities. In the foreseeable future, collaboration between industry, scientific communities, national and international policies are needed to gain knowledge concerning the effects of these industrial activities on the ecological status of the ecosystems.

Distributed and synchronized measurements for the wide-area observation of electric power systems in distorted and low-inertia conditions

With the aim of heading towards a more sustainable future, there has been a noticeable increase in the installation of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in power systems in the latest years. Besides the evident environmental benefits, RES pose several technological challenges in terms of scheduling, operation, and control of transmission and distribution power networks. Therefore, it raised the necessity of developing smart grids, relying on suitable distributed measurement infrastructure, for instance, based on Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). Not only are such devices able to estimate a phasor, but they can also provide time information which is essential for real-time monitoring. This Thesis falls within this context by analyzing the uncertainty requirements of PMUs in distribution and transmission applications. Concerning the latter, the reliability of PMU measurements during severe power system events is examined, whereas for the first, typical configurations of distribution networks are studied for the development of target uncertainties. The second part of the Thesis, instead, is dedicated to the application of PMUs in low-inertia power grids. The replacement of traditional synchronous machines with inertia-less RES is progressively reducing the overall system inertia, resulting in faster and more severe events. In this scenario, PMUs may play a vital role in spite of the fact that no standard requirements nor target uncertainties are yet available. This Thesis deeply investigates PMU-based applications, by proposing a new inertia index relying only on local measurements and evaluating their reliability in low-inertia scenarios. It also develops possible uncertainty intervals based on the electrical instrumentation currently used in power systems and assesses the interoperability with other devices before and after contingency events.

6G enabled IoV scenarios with distributed intelligence mechanisms

The Internet of Vehicles (IoV) paradigm has emerged in recent times, where with the support of technologies like the Internet of Things and V2X , Vehicular Users (VUs) can access different services through internet connectivity. With the support of 6G technology, the IoV paradigm will evolve further and converge into a fully connected and intelligent vehicular system. However, this brings new challenges over dynamic and resource-constrained vehicular systems, and advanced solutions are demanded. This dissertation analyzes the future 6G enabled IoV systems demands, corresponding challenges, and provides various solutions to address them. The vehicular services and application requests demands proper data processing solutions with the support of distributed computing environments such as Vehicular Edge Computing (VEC). While analyzing the performance of VEC systems it is important to take into account the limited resources, coverage, and vehicular mobility into account. Recently, Non terrestrial Networks (NTN) have gained huge popularity for boosting the coverage and capacity of terrestrial wireless networks. Integrating such NTN facilities into the terrestrial VEC system can address the above mentioned challenges. Additionally, such integrated Terrestrial and Non-terrestrial networks (T-NTN) can also be considered to provide advanced intelligent solutions with the support of the edge intelligence paradigm. In this dissertation, we proposed an edge computing-enabled joint T-NTN-based vehicular system architecture to serve VUs. Next, we analyze the terrestrial VEC systems performance for VUs data processing problems and propose solutions to improve the performance in terms of latency and energy costs. Next, we extend the scenario toward the joint T-NTN system and address the problem of distributed data processing through ML-based solutions. We also proposed advanced distributed learning frameworks with the support of a joint T-NTN framework with edge computing facilities. In the end, proper conclusive remarks and several future directions are provided for the proposed solutions.

Trajectory Planning in UAV-Aided Wireless Networks Via Reinforcement Learning

This thesis is focused on the design of a flexible, dynamic and innovative telecommunication's system for future 6G applications on vehicular communications. The system is based on the development of drones acting as mobile base stations in an urban scenario to cope with the increasing traffic demand and avoid network's congestion conditions. In particular, the exploitation of Reinforcement Learning algorithms is used to let the drone learn autonomously how to behave in a scenario full of obstacles with the goal of tracking and serve the maximum number of moving vehicles, by at the same time, minimizing the energy consumed to perform its tasks. This project is an extraordinary opportunity to open the doors to a new way of applying and develop telecommunications in an urban scenario by mixing it to the rising world of the Artificial Intelligence.

Beam-energy Dependence Of The Directed Flow Of Protons, Antiprotons, And Pions In Au+au Collisions.

Rapidity-odd directed flow (v1) measurements for charged pions, protons, and antiprotons near midrapidity (y=0) are reported in sNN=7.7, 11.5, 19.6, 27, 39, 62.4, and 200 GeV Au+Au collisions as recorded by the STAR detector at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. At intermediate impact parameters, the proton and net-proton slope parameter dv1/dy|y=0 shows a minimum between 11.5 and 19.6 GeV. In addition, the net-proton dv1/dy|y=0 changes sign twice between 7.7 and 39 GeV. The proton and net-proton results qualitatively resemble predictions of a hydrodynamic model with a first-order phase transition from hadronic matter to deconfined matter, and differ from hadronic transport calculations.

Hypothalamic Inflammation And The Central Nervous System Control Of Energy Homeostasis.

The control of energy homeostasis relies on robust neuronal circuits that regulate food intake and energy expenditure. Although the physiology of these circuits is well understood, the molecular and cellular response of this program to chronic diseases is still largely unclear. Hypothalamic inflammation has emerged as a major driver of energy homeostasis dysfunction in both obesity and anorexia. Importantly, this inflammation disrupts the action of metabolic signals promoting anabolism or supporting catabolism. In this review, we address the evidence that favors hypothalamic inflammation as a factor that resets energy homeostasis in pathological states.

Beam-energy Dependence Of Charge Separation Along The Magnetic Field In Au+au Collisions At Rhic.

Local parity-odd domains are theorized to form inside a quark-gluon plasma which has been produced in high-energy heavy-ion collisions. The local parity-odd domains manifest themselves as charge separation along the magnetic field axis via the chiral magnetic effect. The experimental observation of charge separation has previously been reported for heavy-ion collisions at the top RHIC energies. In this Letter, we present the results of the beam-energy dependence of the charge correlations in Au+Au collisions at midrapidity for center-of-mass energies of 7.7, 11.5, 19.6, 27, 39, and 62.4 GeV from the STAR experiment. After background subtraction, the signal gradually reduces with decreased beam energy and tends to vanish by 7.7 GeV. This implies the dominance of hadronic interactions over partonic ones at lower collision energies.

Rapidly Switching Multidirectional Defibrillation: Reversal Of Ventricular Fibrillation With Lower Energy Shocks.

Cardiac arrest after open surgery has an incidence of approximately 3%, of which more than 50% of the cases are due to ventricular fibrillation. Electrical defibrillation is the most effective therapy for terminating cardiac arrhythmias associated with unstable hemodynamics. The excitation threshold of myocardial microstructures is lower when external electrical fields are applied in the longitudinal direction with respect to the major axis of cells. However, in the heart, cell bundles are disposed in several directions. Improved myocardial excitation and defibrillation have been achieved by applying shocks in multiple directions via intracardiac leads, but the results are controversial when the electrodes are not located within the cardiac chambers. This study was designed to test whether rapidly switching shock delivery in 3 directions could increase the efficiency of direct defibrillation. A multidirectional defibrillator and paddles bearing 3 electrodes each were developed and used in vivo for the reversal of electrically induced ventricular fibrillation in an anesthetized open-chest swine model. Direct defibrillation was performed by unidirectional and multidirectional shocks applied in an alternating fashion. Survival analysis was used to estimate the relationship between the probability of defibrillation and the shock energy. Compared with shock delivery in a single direction in the same animal population, the shock energy required for multidirectional defibrillation was 20% to 30% lower (P < .05) within a wide range of success probabilities. Rapidly switching multidirectional shock delivery required lower shock energy for ventricular fibrillation termination and may be a safer alternative for restoring cardiac sinus rhythm.

Beam Energy Dependence Of Moments Of The Net-charge Multiplicity Distributions In Au+au Collisions At Rhic.

We report the first measurements of the moments--mean (M), variance (σ(2)), skewness (S), and kurtosis (κ)--of the net-charge multiplicity distributions at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at seven energies, ranging from sqrt[sNN]=7.7 to 200 GeV, as a part of the Beam Energy Scan program at RHIC. The moments are related to the thermodynamic susceptibilities of net charge, and are sensitive to the location of the QCD critical point. We compare the products of the moments, σ(2)/M, Sσ, and κσ(2), with the expectations from Poisson and negative binomial distributions (NBDs). The Sσ values deviate from the Poisson baseline and are close to the NBD baseline, while the κσ(2) values tend to lie between the two. Within the present uncertainties, our data do not show nonmonotonic behavior as a function of collision energy. These measurements provide a valuable tool to extract the freeze-out parameters in heavy-ion collisions by comparing with theoretical models.

Hypothalamic S1p/s1pr1 Axis Controls Energy Homeostasis.

Sphingosine 1-phosphate receptor 1 (S1PR1) is a G-protein-coupled receptor for sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) that has a role in many physiological and pathophysiological processes. Here we show that the S1P/S1PR1 signalling pathway in hypothalamic neurons regulates energy homeostasis in rodents. We demonstrate that S1PR1 protein is highly enriched in hypothalamic POMC neurons of rats. Intracerebroventricular injections of the bioactive lipid, S1P, reduce food consumption and increase rat energy expenditure through persistent activation of STAT3 and the melanocortin system. Similarly, the selective disruption of hypothalamic S1PR1 increases food intake and reduces the respiratory exchange ratio. We further show that STAT3 controls S1PR1 expression in neurons via a positive feedback mechanism. Interestingly, several models of obesity and cancer anorexia display an imbalance of hypothalamic S1P/S1PR1/STAT3 axis, whereas pharmacological intervention ameliorates these phenotypes. Taken together, our data demonstrate that the neuronal S1P/S1PR1/STAT3 signalling axis plays a critical role in the control of energy homeostasis in rats.

Ecological Literacy And Beyond: Problem-based Learning For Future Professionals.

Ecological science contributes to solving a broad range of environmental problems. However, lack of ecological literacy in practice often limits application of this knowledge. In this paper, we highlight a critical but often overlooked demand on ecological literacy: to enable professionals of various careers to apply scientific knowledge when faced with environmental problems. Current university courses on ecology often fail to persuade students that ecological science provides important tools for environmental problem solving. We propose problem-based learning to improve the understanding of ecological science and its usefulness for real-world environmental issues that professionals in careers as diverse as engineering, public health, architecture, social sciences, or management will address. Courses should set clear learning objectives for cognitive skills they expect students to acquire. Thus, professionals in different fields will be enabled to improve environmental decision-making processes and to participate effectively in multidisciplinary work groups charged with tackling environmental issues.

Bipolar Disorder: Recent Advances And Future Trends In Bioanalytical Developments For Biomarker Discovery.

In this manuscript we briefly describe bipolar disorder (a depressive and manic mental disease), its classification, its effects on the patient, which sometimes include suicidal tendencies, and the drugs used for treatment. We also address the status quo with regard to diagnosis of bipolar disorder and recent advances in bioanalytical approaches for biomarker discovery. These approaches focus on blood samples (serum and plasma) and proteins as the main biomarker targets, and use various strategies for protein depletion. Strategies include use of commercially available kits or other homemade strategies and use of classical proteomics methods for protein identification based on bottom-up or top-down approaches, which used SELDI, ESI, or MALDI as sources for mass spectrometry, and up-to-date mass analyzers, for example Orbitrap. We also discuss some future objectives for treatment of this disorder and possible directions for the correct diagnosis of this still-unclear mental illness.

Is size structure a good measure of future trends of plant populations? an empirical approach using five woody species from the Cerrado (Brazilian savanna)

Size distributions in woody plant populations have been used to assess their regeneration status, assuming that size structures with reverse-J shapes represent stable populations. We present an empirical approach of this issue using five woody species from the Cerrado. Considering count data for all plants of these five species over a 12-year period, we analyzed size distribution by: a) plotting frequency distributions and their adjustment to the negative exponential curve and b) calculating the Gini coefficient. To look for a relationship between size structure and future trends, we considered the size structures from the first census year. We analyzed changes in number over time and performed a simple population viability analysis, which gives the mean population growth rate, its variance and the probability of extinction in a given time period. Frequency distributions and the Gini coefficient were not able to predict future trends in population numbers. We recommend that managers should not use measures of size structure as a basis for management decisions without applying more appropriate demographic studies.