The challenge of paleoecological stasis: reassessing sources of evolutionary stability.

The paleontological record of the lower and middle Paleozoic Appalachian foreland basin demonstrates an unprecedented level of ecological and morphological stability on geological time scales. Some 70-80% of fossil morphospecies within assemblages persist in similar relative abundances in coordinated packages lasting as long as 7 million years despite evidence for environmental change and biotic disturbances. These intervals of stability are separated by much shorter periods of ecological and evolutionary change. This pattern appears widespread in the fossil record. Existing concepts of the evolutionary process are unable to explain this uniquely paleontological observation of faunawide coordinated stasis. A principle of evolutionary stability that arises from the ecosystem is explored here. We propose that hierarchical ecosystem theory, when extended to geological time scales, can explain long-term paleoecological stability as the result of ecosystem organization in response to high-frequency disturbance. The accompanying stability of fossil morphologies results from "ecological locking," in which selection is seen as a high-rate response of populations that is hierarchically constrained by lower-rate ecological processes. When disturbance exceeds the capacity of the system, ecological crashes remove these higher-level constraints, and evolution is free to proceed at high rates of directional selection during the organization of a new stable ecological hierarchy.

Thermodynamic glass transition in a spin glass without time-reversal symmetry

Spin glasses are a longstanding model for the sluggish dynamics that appear at the glass transition. However, spin glasses differ from structural glasses in a crucial feature: they enjoy a time reversal symmetry. This symmetry can be broken by applying an external magnetic field, but embarrassingly little is known about the critical behavior of a spin glass in a field. In this context, the space dimension is crucial. Simulations are easier to interpret in a large number of dimensions, but one must work below the upper critical dimension (i.e., in d < 6) in order for results to have relevance for experiments. Here we show conclusive evidence for the presence of a phase transition in a four-dimensional spin glass in a field. Two ingredients were crucial for this achievement: massive numerical simulations were carried out on the Janus special-purpose computer, and a new and powerful finite-size scaling method.

Finite temperature dynamics of vortices in the two dimensional anisotropic Heisenberg model

We study the effects of finite temperature on the dynamics of non-planar vortices in the classical, two-dimensional anisotropic Heisenberg model with XY- or easy-plane symmetry. To this end, we analyze a generalized Landau-Lifshitz equation including additive white noise and Gilbert damping. Using a collective variable theory with no adjustable parameters we derive an equation of motion for the vortices with stochastic forces which are shown to represent white noise with an effective diffusion constant linearly dependent on temperature. We solve these stochastic equations of motion by means of a Green's function formalism and obtain the mean vortex trajectory and its variance. We find a non-standard time dependence for the variance of the components perpendicular to the driving force. We compare the analytical results with Langevin dynamics simulations and find a good agreement up to temperatures of the order of 25% of the Kosterlitz-Thouless transition temperature. Finally, we discuss the reasons why our approach is not appropriate for higher temperatures as well as the discreteness effects observed in the numerical simulations.

Finite size effects in the specific heat of glass-formers

We report clear finite size effects in the specific heat and in the relaxation times of a model glass former at temperatures considerably smaller than the Mode Coupling transition. A crucial ingredient to reach this result is a new Monte Carlo algorithm which allows us to reduce the relaxation time by two order of magnitudes. These effects signal the existence of a large correlation length in static quantities.

Patterns and Predictors of Stability and Change in Representations of Romantic Relationships in Adolescence and Young Adulthood

Research on the stability of attachment representations across the lifespan has led to two alternative perspectives: the prototype and revisionist perspectives (Fraley, 2002). The prototype perspective posits that there is a stable factor underlying fluctuations in representations and the revisionist perspective argues that there is no inherently stable factor. The current study employed a latent trait-state model to investigate these alternative models of stability and change in representations of romantic relationships in adolescence and young adulthood. The study also sought to identify individual characteristics and relationship experiences that are associated with changes in representations. In a sample of 200 participants, representations were assessed by interview and self-report over seven measurement occasions between ages 15 and 23. Results were consistent with the prototype perspective emphasizing that a stable, latent factor exerts a consistent influence over the lifespan. In addition to a stable component, representations incorporated a component that varies over time. Findings showed that this fluctuating component of representations was associated with internalizing and externalizing symptomatology as well as experiences of support and negative interaction in relationships.

The Caregiver–Child Relationship, Youth Mental Health, and Placement Stability in a Child Welfare Sample

Objective: Healthy relationships between adolescents and their caregivers have been robustly associated with better youth outcomes in a variety of domains. Youth in contact with the child welfare system are at higher risk for worse outcomes including mental health problems and home placement instability. A growing body of literature points to youth mental health problems as both a predictor and a consequence of home placement instability in this population; the present study aimed to expand our understanding of these phenomena by examining the interplay among the caregiver-child relationship, youth mental health symptoms, and placement change over time. Method: The sample consisted of 1,179 youths aged 11-16, from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being, a nationally representative sample of children in contact with the child welfare system. We used bivariate correlations and autoregressive cross-lagged path analysis to examine how youths’ reports of their externalizing and internalizing symptoms, their relationship with their caregivers, and placement changes reciprocally influenced one another over three time points. Results: In the overall models, early internalizing symptoms significantly negatively predicted the quality of the caregiver-child relationship at the next time point, and early externalizing symptoms predicted subsequent placement change. In addition, later externalizing symptoms negatively predicted subsequent reports of relationship quality, and later placement changes predicted subsequent externalizing problems; these relationships were significant only at the trend level (p < .10). The quality of the relationship was significantly negatively correlated with externalizing and internalizing problems at all time points, and all variables demonstrated autoregressive stability over time. Conclusions: Our findings support the importance of comprehensive interventions for youth in contact with the child welfare system, which target not only youth symptoms in isolation, but also the caregiver-child relationship, as a way to improve social-emotional outcomes in this high-risk population.

Quantitative stability of linear infinite inequality systems under block perturbations with applications to convex systems

The original motivation for this paper was to provide an efficient quantitative analysis of convex infinite (or semi-infinite) inequality systems whose decision variables run over general infinite-dimensional (resp. finite-dimensional) Banach spaces and that are indexed by an arbitrary fixed set J. Parameter perturbations on the right-hand side of the inequalities are required to be merely bounded, and thus the natural parameter space is l ∞(J). Our basic strategy consists of linearizing the parameterized convex system via splitting convex inequalities into linear ones by using the Fenchel–Legendre conjugate. This approach yields that arbitrary bounded right-hand side perturbations of the convex system turn on constant-by-blocks perturbations in the linearized system. Based on advanced variational analysis, we derive a precise formula for computing the exact Lipschitzian bound of the feasible solution map of block-perturbed linear systems, which involves only the system’s data, and then show that this exact bound agrees with the coderivative norm of the aforementioned mapping. In this way we extend to the convex setting the results of Cánovas et al. (SIAM J. Optim. 20, 1504–1526, 2009) developed for arbitrary perturbations with no block structure in the linear framework under the boundedness assumption on the system’s coefficients. The latter boundedness assumption is removed in this paper when the decision space is reflexive. The last section provides the aimed application to the convex case.

Modeling construction time in Spanish building projects

The literature states that project duration is affected by various scope factors. Using 168 building projects carried out in Spain, this paper uses the multiple regression analysis to develop a forecast model that allows estimating project duration of new builds. The proposed model uses project type, gross floor area (GFA), the cost/GFA relationship and number of floors as predictor variables. The research identified the logarithmic form of construction speed as the most appropriate response variable. GFA has greater influence than cost on project duration but both factors are necessary to achieve a forecast model with the highest accuracy. We developed an analysis to verify the stability of forecasted values and showed how a model with high values of fit and accuracy may display an anomalous behavior in the forecasted values. The sensitivity of the proposed forecast model was also analyzed versus the variability of construction costs.

Difference schemes for numerical solutions of lagging models of heat conduction

Non-Fourier models of heat conduction are increasingly being considered in the modeling of microscale heat transfer in engineering and biomedical heat transfer problems. The dual-phase-lagging model, incorporating time lags in the heat flux and the temperature gradient, and some of its particular cases and approximations, result in heat conduction modeling equations in the form of delayed or hyperbolic partial differential equations. In this work, the application of difference schemes for the numerical solution of lagging models of heat conduction is considered. Numerical schemes for some DPL approximations are developed, characterizing their properties of convergence and stability. Examples of numerical computations are included.

A compact difference scheme for numerical solutions of second order dual-phase-lagging models of microscale heat transfer

Dual-phase-lagging (DPL) models constitute a family of non-Fourier models of heat conduction that allow for the presence of time lags in the heat flux and the temperature gradient. These lags may need to be considered when modeling microscale heat transfer, and thus DPL models have found application in the last years in a wide range of theoretical and technical heat transfer problems. Consequently, analytical solutions and methods for computing numerical approximations have been proposed for particular DPL models in different settings. In this work, a compact difference scheme for second order DPL models is developed, providing higher order precision than a previously proposed method. The scheme is shown to be unconditionally stable and convergent, and its accuracy is illustrated with numerical examples.

Regional subsidence modelling in Murcia city (SE Spain) using 1-D vertical finite element analysis and 2-D interpolation of ground surface displacements

Subsidence is a hazard that may have natural or anthropogenic origin causing important economic losses. The area of Murcia city (SE Spain) has been affected by subsidence due to groundwater overexploitation since the year 1992. The main observed historical piezometric level declines occurred in the periods 1982–1984, 1992–1995 and 2004–2008 and showed a close correlation with the temporal evolution of ground displacements. Since 2008, the pressure recovery in the aquifer has led to an uplift of the ground surface that has been detected by the extensometers. In the present work an elastic hydro-mechanical finite element code has been used to compute the subsidence time series for 24 geotechnical boreholes, prescribing the measured groundwater table evolution. The achieved results have been compared with the displacements estimated through an advanced DInSAR technique and measured by the extensometers. These spatio-temporal comparisons have showed that, in spite of the limited geomechanical data available, the model has turned out to satisfactorily reproduce the subsidence phenomenon affecting Murcia City. The model will allow the prediction of future induced deformations and the consequences of any piezometric level variation in the study area.

The Judicial ‘Bail Out’ of the European Stability Mechanism: Comment on the Pringle Case. Research Paper in Law 09/2013

Since the beginning of the crisis, many responses have been taken to stabilise the European markets. Pringle is the awaited judicial response of the European Court of Justice on the creation of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), a crisis-related intergovernmental international institution which provides financial assistance to Member States in distress in the Eurozone. The judgment adopts a welcome and satisfactory approach on the establishment of the ESM. This article examines the feasibility of the ESM under the Treaty rules and in light of the Pringle judgment. For the first time, the Court was called to appraise the use of the simplified revision procedure under article 48 TEU with the introduction of a new paragraph to article 136 TFEU as well as to interpret the no bail out clause under article 125 TFEU. The final result is rather positive as the Court endorses the establishment of a stability mechanism of the ESM-kind beyond a strict reading of the Treaty rules. Pringle is the first landmark ECJ decision in which the Court has endorsed the use of new and flexible measures to guarantee financial assistance between Member States. This judgment could act as a springboard for more economic, financial and, possibly, political interconnections between Member States.

The 2005 Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact: Too Little, Too Late? Bruges European Economic Research (BEER) Papers 6/November 2006

This paper analyses the main critiques addressed by the literature and the policymakers to the 1997 Stability and Growth Pact. It further indicates to what extent the 2005 reform of the Pact meets those critics. It finally argues that the 2005 reform may be too little and arrive too late to restore the Pact credibility, ensure its enforceability and correctly set the derogations to the excessive deficit procedure on the nature of the shocks which cause the output gap rather than its size: a 3% of GDP limit on deficit spending may be a too binding constraint in front of a strongly negative demand shock, while it is irrationally large in front of a supply shock. Some empirical evidence is provided to identify in the last years strongly negative demand shocks from other shocks in the 25 EU Member States. Had this identifying method been adopted in November 2003, the European Commission and the Council would have both agreed to stop the excessive deficit procedure against Germany, but they would have both proceeded against France which apparently was not at the time hit by a strongly negative demand shock.

The financial stability risks of ultra-loose monetary policy. Bruegel Policy Contribution Issue 2015/03

Ultra-loose monetary policies, such as very low or even negative interest rates, large-scale asset purchases, long-maturity lending to banks and forward guidance in central bank communication, aim to increase inflation and output, to the benefit of financial stability. But at the same time, these measures pose various risks and might create challenges for financial institutions. • By assessing the theoretical literature and developments in the United States, United Kingdom and Japan, where very expansionary monetary policies were adopted during the past six years, and by examining the euro-area situation, we conclude that the risks to financial stability of ultra-loose monetary policy in the euro area could be low. However, vigilance is needed. • While monetary policy should focus on its primary mandate of area-wide price stability, other policies should be deployed whenever the financial cycle deviates from the economic cycle or when heterogeneous financial developments in the euro area require financial tightening in some but not all countries. These policies include micro-prudential supervision, macro-prudential oversight, fiscal policy and regulation of sectors that pose risks to financial stability, such as construction.

Creating Stability: National Preferences and the Origins of European Monetary System. CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 00.9, December 2000

This essay compares the preferences of France, Italy, and Britain on the creation of the European Monetary System in 1978-1979, especially the Exchange Rate Mechanism, which stabilised nominal exchange rates. My claim is that the different conclusions reached by the governments (France and Italy in, Britain out) cannot be explained by economic circumstances or by interests, and I elaborate an intervening institutional variable which helps explain preferences. Deducing from spatial theory that where decisionmakers `sit' on the left-right spectrum matters to their position on the EMS, I argue that domestic constitutional power-. sharing mechanisms privilege certain actors over others in a predictable and consistent way. Where centrists were in power, the government's decision was to join. Where left or right extremists were privileged, the government's decision was negative. The article measures the centrism of the governments in place at the time, and also reviews the positions taken by the national political parties in and out of government. It is intended to contribute to the growing comparativist literature on the European Union, and to the burgeoning literature on EU-member-state relations.