996 resultados para exponential-logarithmic distribution
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Las Lomitas, Formosa, Argentina, reported 96 cases of tegumentary leishmaniasis during 2002. The urban transmission was suggested although previous outbreaks were related with floods of the Bermejo river (BR) 50 km from the village. Phlebotomine collections were performed during March 2002 to define the spatial distribution of risk, together with satellite imaginery. The phlebotomine/trap obtained was 1679.5 in the southern BR shore, 1.1 in the periruban-rural environment and 2.3 in the northern Pilcomayo river marshes. Lutzomyia neivai was the prevalent species (91.1%) among the 2393 phlebotomine captured, and it was only found in the BR traps. The other species were L. migonei (7.9%), L. cortelezzii (0.9%), and Brumptomyia guimaraesi (0.1%). The satellite images analysis indicates that the fishing spots at the BR were significantlyoverflowed during the transmission peak, consistent with fishermen recollections. This spatial restricted flood might concentrate vectors, reservoirs, and humans in high places. Therefore, both the spatial distribution of vectors and the sensor remoting data suggests that in Las Lomitas area the higher transmission risk it is still related with the gallery forest of the BR, despite of the urban residence of the cases. The surveillance and control implications of these results are discussed.
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Literature from 1928 through 2004 was compiled from different document sources published in Mexico or elsewhere. From these 907 publications, we found 19 different topics of Chagas disease study in Mexico. The publications were arranged by decade and also by state. This information was used to construct maps describing the distribution of Chagas disease according to different criteria: the disease, vectors, reservoirs, and strains. One of the major problems confronting study of this zoonotic disease is the great biodiversity of the vector species; there are 30 different species, with at least 10 playing a major role in human infection. The high variability of climates and biogeographic regions further complicate study and understanding of the dynamics of this disease in each region of the country. We used a desktop Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction procedure to provide ecological models of organism niches, offering improved flexibility for choosing predictive environmental and ecological data. This approach may help to identify regions at risk of disease, plan vector-control programs, and explore parasitic reservoir association. With this collected information, we have constructed a data base: CHAGMEX, available online in html format.
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We have investigated the temporal distribution of dengue (DEN) virus serotypes in the department (state) of Santander, Colombia, in relation to dengue incidence, infection pattern, and severity of disease. Viral isolation was attended on a total of 1452 acute serum samples collected each week from 1998 to 2004. The infection pattern was evaluated in 596 laboratory-positive dengue cases using an IgG ELISA, and PRNT test. The dengue incidence was documented by the local health authority. Predominance of DEN-1 in 1998 and DEN-3 re-introduction and predominance in 2001-2003 coincided with outbreaks. Predominance of DEN-2 in 2000-2001 coincided with more dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). DEN-4 was isolated in 2000-2001 and 2004 but was not predominant. There was an annual increase of primary dengue infections (from 13.7 to 81.4%) that correlated with frequency of DEN-3 (r = 0.83; P = 0.038). From the total number of primary dengue infections DEN-3 (81.3%) was the most frequent serotype. DHF was more frequent in DEN-2 infected patients than in DEN-3 infected patients: 27.5 vs 10.9% (P < 0.05). DEN-3 viruses belonged to subtype C (restriction site-specific-polymerase chain reaction) like viruses isolated in Sri-Lanka and other countries in the Americas. Our findings show the importance of continuous virological surveillance to identify the risk factors of dengue epidemics and severity.
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Schistosomiasis prevalence and egg counts remained low one year after chemotherapy in most households in a hyperendemic rural area in northern Minas Gerais but several distinct spatial patterns could be observed in relation to IgE levels and to a lesser extent to exposure risk (TBM) and type of water supply. An inverse relationship between pre-treatment household prevalence and egg counts on the one hand and post-treatment IgE levels on the other were noted in two of the five communities. Low exposure risk was associated with the low pre-treatment infection rates in the central village but did not contribute to the decline of infection rates after chemotherapy in the study area, as indicated by the significant increase in water contact during the posttreatment period (p < 0.0001). Distance between households and the streams and socioeconomic factors were also unimportant in predicting the spatial distribution of infection. These results are consistent with the production and antiparasitic effect of high levels of IgE in Schistosoma mansoni infection.
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The aim of the present study, in view of the widespread geographical distribution of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) whitmani s.l. in Brazil, in close association with the regions of transmission of Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis and L. (V.) shawi, is to investigate the distribution of this sand fly species and American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) in relationship to vegetation and landscape ecology throughout Brazil. Thematic maps were elaborated by the MapInfo programme, giving information on the spatial distribution of L. whitmani s.l., in accordance with types of vegetation and foci of ACL. With regards to the known areas of transmission of ACL in Brazil, it is notable that L. (N.) whitmani s.l. occurs in most of them, where it has been implicated as a possible vector of L. (V.) braziliensis. The presence of L. whitmani s.l. has been registered in 26 states, the one exception being Santa Catarina; in some states such as Roraima, Acre, Tocantins, and Mato Grosso do Sul this sand fly species has been recorded in a large number of municipalities. L. whitmani s.l. has been found in association with a variety of vegetation types, including the Amazonian forest, savanna ("campos cerrados"), and northeastern savanna ("caatingas nordestinas" or "savana estépica").
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Detection of Onchocerca volvulus in Simulium populations is of primary importance in the assessment of the effectiveness of onchocerciasis control programs. In Brazil, the main focus of onchocerciasis is in the Amazon region, in a Yanomami reserve. The main onchocerciasis control strategy in Brazil is the semi-annually mass distribution of the microfilaricide ivermectin. In accordance with the control strategy for the disease, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was applied in pools of simuliids from the area to detect the helminth infection in the vectors, as recommended by the Onchocerciasis Elimination Program for the Americas and the World Health Organization. Systematic sampling was performed monthly from September 1998 to October 1999, and a total of 4942 blackflies were collected from two sites (2576 from Balawaú and 2366 from Toototobi). The molecular methodology was found to be highly sensitive and specific for the detection of infected and/or infective blackflies in pools of 50 blackflies. The results from the material collected under field conditions showed that after the sixth cycle of distribution of ivermectin, the prevalence of infected blackflies with O. volvulus had decreased from 8.6 to 0.3% in Balawaú and from 4 to 0.1% in Toototobi.
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This paper provides a new and accessible approach to establishing certain results concerning the discounted penalty function. The direct approach consists of two steps. In the first step, closed-form expressions are obtained in the special case in which the claim amount distribution is a combination of exponential distributions. A rational function is useful in this context. For the second step, one observes that the family of combinations of exponential distributions is dense. Hence, it suffices to reformulate the results of the first step to obtain general results. The surplus process has downward and upward jumps, modeled by two independent compound Poisson processes. If the distribution of the upward jumps is exponential, a series of new results can be obtained with ease. Subsequently, certain results of Gerber and Shiu [H. U. Gerber and E. S. W. Shiu, North American Actuarial Journal 2(1): 48–78 (1998)] can be reproduced. The two-step approach is also applied when an independent Wiener process is added to the surplus process. Certain results are related to Zhang et al. [Z. Zhang, H. Yang, and S. Li, Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 233: 1773–1 784 (2010)], which uses different methods.
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Malaria control has been directed towards regional actions where more detailed knowledge of local determinants of transmission is of primary importance. This is a short report on range distribution and biting indices for Anopheles darlingi and An. albitarsis during the dry and rainy season that follows river level variation in a savanna/alluvial forest malaria system area in the Northern Amazon Basin. Distribution range and adult biting indices were at their highest during the rainy season for both An. darlingi and An. albitarsis. During the rainy season the neighboring alluvial forest was extensively flooded. This coincided with highest rates in malaria transmission with case clustering near the river. As the river receded, anopheline distribution range and density decreased. This decrease in distribution and density corresponded to a malaria decrease in the near area. An exponential regression function was derived to permit estimations of An. darlingi distribution over specified distances. Anopheline spatio-temporal variations lead to uneven malaria case distribution and are of important implications for control strategies.
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Nyssomyia intermedia (Lutz & Neiva 1912) and N. neivai (Pinto 1926) are possible vectors of tegumentary leishmaniasis in some regions of Brazil. Further, the latter was until recently, considered a junior synonym of the former. This study has the purpose of updating our knowledge of the geographical distribution of these species, based on specimens deposited at the collection of the Centro de Pesquisas René Rachou-Fiocruz, Faculdade de Saúde Pública-Universidade de São Paulo, and on data presented by literature as also to associate this distribution with the cutaneous leishmaniasis cases reported. It has been reported that N. intermedia occurs in the states of the Northeastern Region, in Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo, on the northern coast of São Paulo, in eastern Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goiás, close to the border with Minas Gerais and Bahia. N. neivai occurs in the Southern Region, southern coast and in western São Paulo, southern and western Minas Gerais, southern Goiás, and southern Pará, beyond Argentina, Bolivia, and Paraguay. It is important to highlight that N. intermedia and N. neivai occur in sympatry in Minas Gerais and São Paulo. N. intermedia or N. neivai are predominant or are captured abundantly in several cutaneous leishmaniasis foci in the Southeastern and Southern regions of Brazil.
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Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are vectors of dengue viruses, which cause endemic disease in the city of Manaus, capital of the state of Amazonas, Brazil. More than 53 thousand cases have been registered in this city since the first epidemic in 1998. We evaluated the hypothesis that different ecological conditions result in different patterns of vector infestation in Manaus, by measuring the infestation level in four neighborhoods with different urbanization patterns, during the rainy (April), dry (August), and transitional (November) seasons. Ae. aegypti predominated throughout the study areas and sampling periods, representing 86% of all specimens collected in oviposition traps. High frequencies of houses positive for both species were observed in all studied sites, with Ae. aegypti present in more than 84% of the houses in all seasons. Ae. albopictus, on the other hand, showed more spatial and temporal variation in abundance. We found no association between infestation level and house traits. This study highlights the homogeneity of dengue vector distribution in Manaus.
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Urbanization and vector domestication are currently proposed as factors that contributed to the recent increase of American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL). Is likely also urban transmission? Oran is the main city in the Argentinean hyper-endemic area of ACL, and human cases in urban residences are usually reported. In order to assess the spatial distribution of risk, phlebotomine traps were located in different environments of Oran. A total of 7,787 sand flies were captured: Lutzomyia neivai (98.1%), Lutzomyia migonei (1.2%), Lutzomyia cortelezzii (0.7%), and one Lutzomyia shannoni. During the season of transmission (April-May) a single sand fly was obtained in one out of five urban sites, while a trap in a peri-urban pigsty captured up to 2,985 Lu. neivai/night. Captures performed in the other season of vector activity (September-October) revealed that small-scale changes in the pigsty environment resulted in noticeable changes in the abundance of Lu. neivai. In addition, in a new neighbourhood, on the fringe of the city, 1,073 Lu. neivai/site were captured in the forested edge but one in the yard of the houses. Therefore, in this urban ACL focus the human-vector effective contact risk is still associated with peri-urban vegetation and ecotone modifications despite the urban residence of the cases.
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Reaching and educating the masses to the benefit of all of mankind is the ultimate goal and through the use of this technology facility/tool many can be reached in their own language, in their own community, in their own time and at their own pace. Making this content available to those who will benefit from the information, is vital. These people who want to consume the content are not necessarily that interested in the qualification, they need the information. Making the content available in an auditory format may also help those who may not be as literate as others. The uses of audio/ recorded lessons have a number of uses and should not just be seen as a medium for content distribution to distant communities. Recording lectures makes it possible for a lecturer to present lectures to a vast number of students, while just presenting the lecture once.
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BACKGROUND: Shared Decision Making (SDM) is increasingly advocated as a model for medical decision making. However, there is still low use of SDM in clinical practice. High impact factor journals might represent an efficient way for its dissemination. We aimed to identify and characterize publication trends of SDM in 15 high impact medical journals. METHODS: We selected the 15 general and internal medicine journals with the highest impact factor publishing original articles, letters and editorials. We retrieved publications from 1996 to 2011 through the full-text search function on each journal website and abstracted bibliometric data. We included publications of any type containing the phrase "shared decision making" or five other variants in their abstract or full text. These were referred to as SDM publications. A polynomial Poisson regression model with logarithmic link function was used to assess the evolution across the period of the number of SDM publications according to publication characteristics. RESULTS: We identified 1285 SDM publications out of 229,179 publications in 15 journals from 1996 to 2011. The absolute number of SDM publications by journal ranged from 2 to 273 over 16 years. SDM publications increased both in absolute and relative numbers per year, from 46 (0.32% relative to all publications from the 15 journals) in 1996 to 165 (1.17%) in 2011. This growth was exponential (P < 0.01). We found fewer research publications (465, 36.2% of all SDM publications) than non-research publications, which included non-systematic reviews, letters, and editorials. The increase of research publications across time was linear. Full-text search retrieved ten times more SDM publications than a similar PubMed search (1285 vs. 119 respectively). CONCLUSION: This review in full-text showed that SDM publications increased exponentially in major medical journals from 1996 to 2011. This growth might reflect an increased dissemination of the SDM concept to the medical community.
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The role of ecology in the evolution and maintenance of arthropod sociality has received increasing research attention in recent years. In some organisms, such as halictine bees, polistine wasps, and social spiders, researchers are investigating the environmental factors that may contribute to high levels of variation in the degree of sociality exhibited both among and within species. Within lineages that include only eusocial members, such as ants and termites, studies focus more on identifying extrinsic factors that may contribute to the dramatic variation in colony size, number of queens, and division of labour that is evident across these species. In this review, I propose a comparative approach that seeks to identify environmental factors that may have a common influence across such divergent social arthropod groups. I suggest that seeking common biogeographic patterns in the distribution of social systems or key social traits may help us to identify ecological factors that play a common role in shaping the evolution of sociality across different organisms. I first review previous studies of social gradients that form along latitudinal and altitudinal axes. Within families and within species, many organisms show an increasing degree of sociality at lower latitudes and altitudes. In a smaller number of cases, organisms form larger groups or found nests cooperatively at higher latitudes and altitudes. I then describe several environmental factors that vary consistently along such gradients, including climate variables and abundance of predators, and outline their proposed role in the social systems of terrestrial arthropods. Finally, I map distributions of a social trait against several climatic factors in five case studies to demonstrate how future comparative studies could inform empirical research.
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In Brazil, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is caused by Leishmania chagasi parasites that are transmitted to man through the bites of infected females of Lutzomyia longipalpis sand flies. In order to evaluate transmission risk and to clarify the epidemiology of this tropical disease, studies focused on the vector and favorable environmental conditions are of fundamental importance. In this work, we surveyed the phlebotomine sand fly fauna in Janaúba, a Brazilian municipality that is endemic for VL. During a two-year period, entomological captures were performed monthly in 15 districts with high, moderate and low profiles of VL transmission. A total of 14,591 phlebotomine sand flies were captured (92% L. longipalpis), with a predominance of males. Most specimens were captured in the peri-domicile setting, although the number of specimens captured in the intra-domicile setting emphasises the anthropophilic behaviour of this insect. The population density of L. longipalpis was modulated by climate variations, particularly with clear increases immediately after the rainy season. However, the pattern of distribution did not coincide with the occurrence of human or canine cases of VL. This suggests that the eco-epidemiology of VL is particular to each area of transmission and must be taken into account during the design of public health control actions.