Abrupt climate change: ice sheets and oceans in action

Large temperature variations on land, in the air, and at the ocean surface, and highly variable flux of ice-rafted debris (IRD) delivered to the North Atlantic Ocean show that rapid climate fluctuations took place during the last glacial period. These quasi-periodic, high-amplitude climate variations followed a sequence of events recognized as a rapid warming, followed by a phase of gradual cooling, and terminating with more rapid cooling and increased flux of IRD to the north Atlantic Ocean. Each cycle lasted ˜1500 years, and was followed by an almost identical sequence. These cycles are referred to as Dansgaard/Oechger cycles (D/O cycles), and approximately every fourth cycle culminated in a more pronounced cooling with a massive discharge of IRD into the north Atlantic Ocean over an interval of ˜500 years. These massive discharges of IRD are known as Heinrich layers. “Heinrich events” are thus characterized as a rapid transfer of IRD from a “source,” the bed of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), to a “sink,” the North Atlantic.

Creating a greater partnership: analysing partnership in the Catholic Church development chain

This paper presents results from a project designed to explore the meaning and function of partnership within the Catholic Church development chain. The geography literature has had little to say about such aid chains, especially those founded on faith-based groups. The relationships between three Catholic Church-based donors - referred to as A, B and C - with development personnel of the diocese of the Abuja Ecclesiastical Province (AEP) as well as other Catholic Church structures in Nigeria were analysed. The aim was to explore the forces behind the relationships and how 'patchy' these relationships were in AEP. Respondents were asked to give each of the donors a score in relation to four questions covering their relationship with the donors. Results suggest that the modus operandi of donor 'A' allows it to be perceived as the 'best' partner, while 'B' was scored less favourably because of a perception that it attempts to act independently of existing structures in Nigeria rather than work through them. There was significant variation between diocese in this regard, as well as between the diocese and other structures of the Church (Provinces, Inter-Provinces and National Secretariat). Thus 'partnership' in the Catholic Church aid chain is a highly complex, contested and 'visioned' term and the development of an analytical framework has to take account of these fundamentals.

Do High-Frequency Eddies Contribute to Low-Frequency Teleconnection Tendencies?*

An isentropic potential vorticity (PV) budget analysis is employed to examine the role of synoptic transients, advection, and nonconservative processes as forcings for the evolution of the low-frequency PV anomalies locally and those associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern. Specifically, the rate of change of the low-frequency PV is expressed as a sum of tendencies due to divergence of eddy transport, advection by the low-frequency flow (hereafter referred to as advection), and the residual nonconservative processes. The balance between the variances and covariances of these terms is illustrated using a novel vector representation. It is shown that for most locations, as well as for the PNA pattern, the PV variability is dominantly driven by advection. The eddy forcing explains a small amount of the tendency variance. For the NAO, the role of synoptic eddy fluxes is found to be stronger, explaining on average 15% of the NAO tendency variance. Previous studies have not assessed quantitively how the various forcings balance the tendency. Thus, such studies may have overestimated the role of eddy fluxes for the evolution of teleconnections by examining, for example, composites and regressions that indicate maintenance, rather than evolution driven by the eddies. The authors confirm this contrasting view by showing that during persistent blocking (negative NAO) episodes the eddy driving is relatively stronger.

A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America

This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility Of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well-calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Parana river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3-month lead November-December-January multi-model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management.

Unravelling the conundrum of tannins in animal nutrition and health

This paper examines the nutritional and veterinary effects of tannins on ruminants and makes some comparisons with non-ruminants. Tannin chemistry per se is not covered and readers are referred to several excellent reviews instead: (a) Okuda T et al. Heterocycles 30:1195-1218 (1990); (b) Ferreira D and Slade D. Nat Prod Rep 19:517-541 (2002); (c) Yoshida T et al. In Studies in Natural Product Chemistry. Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, pp. 395-453 (2000); (d) Khanbabaee K and van Ree T. Nat Prod Rep 18:641-649 (2001); (e) Okuda et al. Phytochemistvy 55:513-529 (2000). The effects of tannins on rumen micro-organisms are also not reviewed, as these have been addressed by others: (a) McSweeney CS et al. Anim Feed Sci Technol 91:83-93 (2001); (b) Smith AH and Mackie RI. Appl Environ Microbiol 70:1104-1115 (2004). This paper deals first with the nutritional effects of tannins in animal feeds, their qualitative and quantitative diversity, and the implications of tannin-protein complexation. It then summarises the known physiological and harmful effects and discusses the equivocal evidence of the bioavailability of tannins. Issues concerning tannin metabolism and systemic effects are also considered. Opportunities are presented on how to treat feeds with high tannin contents, and some lesser-known but successful feeding strategies are highlighted. Recent research has explored the use of tannins for preventing animal deaths from bloat, for reducing intestinal parasites and for lowering gaseous ammonia and methane emissions. Finally, several tannin assays and a hypothesis are discussed that merit further investigation in order to assess their suitability for predicting animal responses. The aim is to provoke discussion and spur readers into new approaches. An attempt is made to synthesise the emerging information for relating tannin structures with their activities. Although many plants with high levels of tannins produce negative effects and require treatments, others are very useful animal feeds. Our ability to predict whether tannin-containing feeds confer positive or negative effects will depend on interdisciplinary research between animal nutritionists and plant chemists. The elucidation of tannin structure-activity relationships presents exciting opportunities for future feeding strategies that will benefit ruminants and the environment within the contexts of extensive, semi-intensive and some intensive agricultural systems. (c) 2006 Society of Chemical Industry

Unravelling the conundrum of tannins in animal nutrition and health

This paper examines the nutritional and veterinary effects of tannins on ruminants and makes some comparisons with non-ruminants. Tannin chemistry per se is not covered and readers are referred to several excellent reviews instead: (a) Okuda T et al. Heterocycles 30:1195-1218 (1990); (b) Ferreira D and Slade D. Nat Prod Rep 19:517-541 (2002); (c) Yoshida T et al. In Studies in Natural Product Chemistry. Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, pp. 395-453 (2000); (d) Khanbabaee K and van Ree T. Nat Prod Rep 18:641-649 (2001); (e) Okuda et al. Phytochemistvy 55:513-529 (2000). The effects of tannins on rumen micro-organisms are also not reviewed, as these have been addressed by others: (a) McSweeney CS et al. Anim Feed Sci Technol 91:83-93 (2001); (b) Smith AH and Mackie RI. Appl Environ Microbiol 70:1104-1115 (2004). This paper deals first with the nutritional effects of tannins in animal feeds, their qualitative and quantitative diversity, and the implications of tannin-protein complexation. It then summarises the known physiological and harmful effects and discusses the equivocal evidence of the bioavailability of tannins. Issues concerning tannin metabolism and systemic effects are also considered. Opportunities are presented on how to treat feeds with high tannin contents, and some lesser-known but successful feeding strategies are highlighted. Recent research has explored the use of tannins for preventing animal deaths from bloat, for reducing intestinal parasites and for lowering gaseous ammonia and methane emissions. Finally, several tannin assays and a hypothesis are discussed that merit further investigation in order to assess their suitability for predicting animal responses. The aim is to provoke discussion and spur readers into new approaches. An attempt is made to synthesise the emerging information for relating tannin structures with their activities. Although many plants with high levels of tannins produce negative effects and require treatments, others are very useful animal feeds. Our ability to predict whether tannin-containing feeds confer positive or negative effects will depend on interdisciplinary research between animal nutritionists and plant chemists. The elucidation of tannin structure-activity relationships presents exciting opportunities for future feeding strategies that will benefit ruminants and the environment within the contexts of extensive, semi-intensive and some intensive agricultural systems. (c) 2006 Society of Chemical Industry

A platform for supporting micro-collaborations in a diverse device environment

Collaborative software is usually thought of as providing audio-video conferencing services, application/desktop sharing, and access to large content repositories. However mobile device usage is characterized by users carrying out short and intermittent tasks sometimes referred to as 'micro-tasking'. Micro-collaborations are not well supported by traditional groupware systems and the work in this paper seeks out to address this. Mico is a system that provides a set of application level peer-to-peer services for the ad-hoc formation and facilitation of collaborative groups across a diverse mobile device domain. The system builds on the Java ME bindings of the JXTA P2P protocols, and is designed with an approach to use the lowest common denominators that are required for collaboration between varying degrees of mobile device capability. To demonstrate how our platform facilitates application development, we built an exemplary set of demonstration applications and include code examples here to illustrate the ease and speed afforded when developing collaborative software with Mico.

m-aminobenzoic acid inserted beta-turn in acyclic tripeptides: a peptidomimetic design

X-ray diffraction studies show that peptides Boc-Leu-Aib-m-ABA-OMe (I) (Aib, alpha-aminoisobutyric acid; m-ABA, meta-aminobenzoic acid) and Boc-Phe-Aib-m-ABA-OMe, (II) adopt a type-II beta-turn conformation, solely stabilized by co-operative steric interactions amongst the amino acid residues. This type of U-turn without any intramolecular hydrogen bonding is generally referred to as an open turn. Although there are some examples of constrained cyclic peptides in which o-substituted benzenes have been inserted to mimic the turn region of the neurotrophin, a nerve growth factor, peptides I and II present novel two examples where m-aminobenzoic acid has been incorporated in the beta-turn of acyclic tripeptides. The result also demonstrates the first crystallographic evidence of a beta-turn structure containing an inserted m-aminobenzoic acid, which can be considered as a rigid gamma-aminobutyric acid with an all-trans extended configuration. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Crystallization in poly(L-lactide)-b-poly(epsilon-caprolactone) double crystalline diblock copolymers: a study using X-ray scattering, differential scanning calorimetry, and polarized optical microscopy

The crystallization of well-defined poly(L-lactide)-b-poly(epsilon-caprolactone) diblock copolymers, PLLA-b-PCL, was investigated by time-resolved X-ray techniques, polarized optical microscopy (POM), and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). Two compositions were studied that contained 44 and 60 wt % poly(L-lactide), PLLA (they are referred to as (L44C5614)-C-11 and (L60C409)-C-12, respectively, with the molecular weight of each block in kg/mol as superscript). The copolymers were found to be initially miscible in the melt according to small-angle X-ray scattering measurements (SAXS). Their thermal behavior was also indicative of samples whose crystallization proceeds from a mixed melt. Sequential isothermal crystallization from the melt at 100 degreesC (for 30 min) and then at 30 degreesC (for 15 min) was measured. At 100 degreesC only the PLLA block is capable of crystallization, and its crystallization kinetics was followed by both WAXS and DSC; comparable results were obtained that indicated an instantaneous nucleation with three-dimensional superstructures (Avrami index of approximately 3). The spherulitic nature of the superstructure was confirmed by POM. When the temperature was decreased to 30 degreesC, the PCL block was able to crystallize within the PLLA negative spherulites (with an Avrami index of 2, as opposed to 3 in homo-PCL), and its crystallization rate was much slower than an equivalent homo-PCL. Time-resolved SAXS experiments in (L60C409)-C-12 revealed an initial melt mixed morphology at 165 degreesC that upon cooling transformed into a transient microphase-separated lamellar structure prior to crystallization at 100 degreesC.

Vibrio parahaemolyticus associated with mass mortality of postlarval abalone, Haliotis diversicolor supertexta (L.), in Sanya, China

Outbreaks of mass mortality in postlarval abalone, Haliotis diversicolor supertexta (L.), have swept across south China since 2002 and in turn have resulted in many abalone farms closing. Twenty-five representative bacterial isolates were isolated from a sample of five diseased postlarval abalone, taken 15 d postfertilization during an outbreak of postlarval disease in Sanya, Hainan Province, China in October 2004. A dominant isolate, referred to as Strain 6, was found to be highly virulent to postlarvae in an experimental challenge test, with a 50% lethal dose (LD50) value of 3.2 x 10(4) colony forming units (CFU)/mL, while six of the other isolates were weakly virulent with LD50 values ranging from 1 x 10(6) to 1 x 10(7) CFU/mL, and the remaining 18 isolates were classified as avirulent with LD50 values greater than 1 x 10(8) CFU/mL. Using both an API 20E kit and 16S recombinant DNA sequence analysis, Strain 6 was shown to be Vibrio parahaemolyticus. It was sensitive to 4 and intermediately sensitive to 5 of the 16 antibiotics used when screening the antibiotic sensitivities of the bacterium. Extracellular products (ECPs) prepared from the bacterium were lethal to postlarvae when used in a toxicity test at a concentration of 3.77 mg protein/mL, and complete liquefaction of postlarvae tissues occurred within 24 h postexposure. Results from this study implicate V. parahaemolyticus as the pathogen involved in the disease outbreaks in postlarval abalone in Sanya and show that the ECPs may be involved in the pathogenesis of the disease.

Mechanistic insights into a gas–solid reaction in molecular crystals: the role of hydrogen bonding

Reactions in (molecular) organic crystalline solids have been shown to be important for exerting control that is unattainable over chemical transformations in solution. Such control has also been achieved for reactions within metal– organic cages. In these examples, the reactants are already in place within the crystals following the original crystal growth. The post-synthetic modification of metal–organic frameworks (MOFs and indeed reactions and catalysis within MOFs have been recently demonstrated; in these cases the reactants enter the crystals through permanent channels. Another growing area of interest within molecular solid-state chemistry is synthesis by mechanical co-grinding of solid reactants—often referred to as mechanochemistry. Finally, in a small number of reported examples, molecules also have been shown to enter nonporous crystals directly from the gas or vapor phase, but in only a few of these examples does a change in covalent bonding result, which indicates that a reaction occurs within the nonporous crystals. It is this latter type of highly uncommon reaction that is the focus of the present study.

Feasibility of guided CBT self-help for childhood anxiety disorders in primary care

Anxiety disorders in childhood are common, disabling and run a chronic course. Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT) effective but is expensive and trained therapists are scarce. Guided self-help treatments may be a means of widening access to treatment. This study aimed to examine the feasibility of guided CBT self-help for childhood anxiety disorders in Primary Care, specifically in terms of therapist adherence, patient and therapist satisfaction and clinical gain. Participants were children aged 5-12 years referred to two Primary Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (PCAMHSs) in Oxfordshire, UK, who met diagnostic criteria for a primary anxiety disorder. Of the 52 eligible children, 41 anxious children were assessed for anxiety severity and interference before and after receiving CBT self-help, delivered via the parent (total therapy time= 5 hours) by Primary Mental Health Workers (PMHWs). Therapy sessions were rated for treatment adherence and patients and PMHWs completed satisfaction questionnaires after treatment completion. Over 80% of therapy sessions were rated at a high level of treatment adherence. Parents and PMHWs reported high satisfaction with the treatment. 61% of the children assessed no longer met criteria for their primary anxiety disorder diagnosis following treatment, and 76% were rated as ‘much’/’very much’ improved on the Clinician’s Global Impression-Improvement scale. There were significant reductions on parent and child report measures of anxiety symptoms, interference, and depression. Preliminary exploration indicated that parental anxiety was associated with child treatment outcome. The findings suggest that guided CBT self-help represents a promising treatment for childhood anxiety in primary care.

Contracts and incentives in the construction sector

The aim of this chapter is to examine what the construction sector brings to our understanding of the procurement of complex performance. The chapter is divided into the following parts: fi rst, an overview of the various matters that contribute to the complexity of construction procurement is provided. Second, the most important contractual incentive schemes found in construction contracts are discussed, and this is followed by, third, an examination of the changes associated with the shift towards procuring complex performance (PCP) (service provision). Fourth, the main findings of the authors’ recent research on PCP contracts are summarised, followed by the conclusion. It should be noted that the procurement of services is referred to as ‘PCP’ in this chapter.

Evolution of coronal mass ejection morphology with increasing heliocentric distance. II. In Situ observations

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are often observed to travel much faster than the ambient solar wind. If the relative speed between the two exceeds the fast magnetosonic velocity, then a shock wave will form. The Mach number and the shock standoff distance ahead of the ICME leading edge is measured to infer the vertical size of an ICME in a direction that is perpendicular to the solar wind flow. We analyze the shock standoff distance for 45 events varying between 0.5 AU and 5.5 AU in order to infer their physical dimensions. We find that the average ratio of the inferred vertical size to measured radial width, referred to as the aspect ratio, of an ICME is 2.8 ± 0.5. We also compare these results to the geometrical predictions from Paper I that forecast an aspect ratio between 3 and 6. The geometrical solution varies with heliocentric distance and appears to provide a theoretical maximum for the aspect ratio of ICMEs. The minimum aspect ratio appears to remain constant at 1 (i.e., a circular cross section) for all distances. These results suggest that possible distortions to the leading edge of ICMEs are frequent. But, these results may also indicate that the constants calculated in the empirical relationship correlating the different shock front need to be modified; or perhaps both distortions and a change in the empirical formulae are required.

Application of logistic regression for fault analysis in an industrial printing process

A statistical technique for fault analysis in industrial printing is reported. The method specifically deals with binary data, for which the results of the production process fall into two categories, rejected or accepted. The method is referred to as logistic regression, and is capable of predicting future fault occurrences by the analysis of current measurements from machine parts sensors. Individual analysis of each type of fault can determine which parts of the plant have a significant influence on the occurrence of such faults; it is also possible to infer which measurable process parameters have no significant influence on the generation of these faults. Information derived from the analysis can be helpful in the operator's interpretation of the current state of the plant. Appropriate actions may then be taken to prevent potential faults from occurring. The algorithm is being implemented as part of an applied self-learning expert system.