Undercoverage and Nonresponse in a List-sampled Telephone Election Survey

For landline telephone surveys in particular, undercoverage has been a growing problem. However, research regarding the relative contributions of socio-demographic bias and other composition effects is scarce. We propose to address this issue by analyzing an election survey which used a sample from a register-based sampling frame containing basic socio-demographic information and to which telephone numbers were subsequently matched. With respect to socio-demographic representation of the final sample, we find that difficult to match groups are also difficult to contact, while those who cooperate tend to have different characteristics. We find bias due to undercoverage to be of greater magnitude than noncontact bias, while noncooperation falls between the two. As for substantive variables, both additional efforts to match missing telephone numbers and the construction of better weights are successful in closing the gap between survey estimates of voting behavior and true values from the election results.

Effectiveness of a primary care-based intervention to reduce sitting time in overweight and obese patients (SEDESTACTIV): a randomized controlled trial; rationale and study design

Background: There is growing evidence suggesting that prolonged sitting has negative effects on people's weight, chronic diseases and mortality. Interventions to reduce sedentary time can be an effective strategy to increase daily energy expenditure. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of a six-month primary care intervention to reduce daily of sitting time in overweight and mild obese sedentary patients. Method/Design: The study is a randomized controlled trial (RCT). Professionals from thirteen primary health care centers (PHC) will randomly invite to participate mild obese or overweight patients of both gender, aged between 25 and 65 years old, who spend 6 hours at least daily sitting. A total of 232 subjects will be randomly allocated to an intervention (IG) and control group (CG) (116 individuals each group). In addition, 50 subjects with fibromyalgia will be included. Primary outcome is: (1) sitting time using the activPAL device and the Marshall questionnaire. The following parameters will be also assessed: (2) sitting time in work place (Occupational Sitting and Physical Activity Questionnaire), (3) health-related quality of life (EQ-5D), (4) evolution of stage of change (Prochaska and DiClemente's Stages of Change Model), (5) physical inactivity (catalan version of Brief Physical Activity Assessment Tool), (6) number of steps walked (pedometer and activPAL), (7) control based on analysis (triglycerides, total cholesterol, HDL, LDL, glycemia and, glycated haemoglobin in diabetic patients) and (8) blood pressure and anthropometric variables. All parameters will be assessed pre and post intervention and there will be a follow up three, six and twelve months after the intervention. A descriptive analysis of all variables and a multivariate analysis to assess differences among groups will be undertaken. Multivariate analysis will be carried out to assess time changes of dependent variables. All the analysis will be done under the intention to treat principle. Discussion: If the SEDESTACTIV intervention shows its effectiveness in reducing sitting time, health professionals would have a low-cost intervention tool for sedentary overweight and obese patients management.

Prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers based on random breath tests in a roadside survey

Sobriety checkpoints are not usually randomly located by traffic authorities. As such, information provided by non-random alcohol tests cannot be used to infer the characteristics of the general driving population. In this paper a case study is presented in which the prevalence of alcohol-impaired driving is estimated for the general population of drivers. A stratified probabilistic sample was designed to represent vehicles circulating in non-urban areas of Catalonia (Spain), a region characterized by its complex transportation network and dense traffic around the metropolis of Barcelona. Random breath alcohol concentration tests were performed during spring 2012 on 7,596 drivers. The estimated prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers was 1.29 PER CENT, which is roughly a third of the rate obtained in non-random tests. Higher rates were found on weekends (1.90 PER CENT on Saturdays, 4.29 PER CENT on Sundays) and especially at night. The rate is higher for men (1.45 PER CENT) than for women (0.64 PER CENT) and the percentage of positive outcomes shows an increasing pattern with age. In vehicles with two occupants, the proportion of alcohol-impaired drivers is estimated at 2.62 PER CENT, but when the driver was alone the rate drops to 0.84 PER CENT, which might reflect the socialization of drinking habits. The results are compared with outcomes in previous surveys, showing a decreasing trend in the prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers over time.

Structure-Based, Rational Design of T Cell Receptors.

Adoptive cell transfer using engineered T cells is emerging as a promising treatment for metastatic melanoma. Such an approach allows one to introduce T cell receptor (TCR) modifications that, while maintaining the specificity for the targeted antigen, can enhance the binding and kinetic parameters for the interaction with peptides (p) bound to major histocompatibility complexes (MHC). Using the well-characterized 2C TCR/SIYR/H-2K(b) structure as a model system, we demonstrated that a binding free energy decomposition based on the MM-GBSA approach provides a detailed and reliable description of the TCR/pMHC interactions at the structural and thermodynamic levels. Starting from this result, we developed a new structure-based approach, to rationally design new TCR sequences, and applied it to the BC1 TCR targeting the HLA-A2 restricted NY-ESO-1157-165 cancer-testis epitope. Fifty-four percent of the designed sequence replacements exhibited improved pMHC binding as compared to the native TCR, with up to 150-fold increase in affinity, while preserving specificity. Genetically engineered CD8(+) T cells expressing these modified TCRs showed an improved functional activity compared to those expressing BC1 TCR. We measured maximum levels of activities for TCRs within the upper limit of natural affinity, K D = ∼1 - 5 μM. Beyond the affinity threshold at K D < 1 μM we observed an attenuation in cellular function, in line with the "half-life" model of T cell activation. Our computer-aided protein-engineering approach requires the 3D-structure of the TCR-pMHC complex of interest, which can be obtained from X-ray crystallography. We have also developed a homology modeling-based approach, TCRep 3D, to obtain accurate structural models of any TCR-pMHC complexes when experimental data is not available. Since the accuracy of the models depends on the prediction of the TCR orientation over pMHC, we have complemented the approach with a simplified rigid method to predict this orientation and successfully assessed it using all non-redundant TCR-pMHC crystal structures available. These methods potentially extend the use of our TCR engineering method to entire TCR repertoires for which no X-ray structure is available. We have also performed a steered molecular dynamics study of the unbinding of the TCR-pMHC complex to get a better understanding of how TCRs interact with pMHCs. This entire rational TCR design pipeline is now being used to produce rationally optimized TCRs for adoptive cell therapies of stage IV melanoma.

Assessing the added value of wastewater-based epidemiology to monitor illicit drug use

Wastewater-based epidemiology consists in acquiring relevant information about the lifestyle and health status of the population through the analysis of wastewater samples collected at the influent of a wastewater treatment plant. Whilst being a very young discipline, it has experienced an astonishing development since its firs application in 2005. The possibility to gather community-wide information about drug use has been among the major field of application. The wide resonance of the first results sparked the interest of scientists from various disciplines. Since then, research has broadened in innumerable directions. Although being praised as a revolutionary approach, there was a need to critically assess its added value, with regard to the existing indicators used to monitor illicit drug use. The main, and explicit, objective of this research was to evaluate the added value of wastewater-based epidemiology with regards to two particular, although interconnected, dimensions of illicit drug use. The first is related to trying to understand the added value of the discipline from an epidemiological, or societal, perspective. In other terms, to evaluate if and how it completes our current vision about the extent of illicit drug use at the population level, and if it can guide the planning of future prevention measures and drug policies. The second dimension is the criminal one, with a particular focus on the networks which develop around the large demand in illicit drugs. The goal here was to assess if wastewater-based epidemiology, combined to indicators stemming from the epidemiological dimension, could provide additional clues about the structure of drug distribution networks and the size of their market. This research had also an implicit objective, which focused on initiating the path of wastewater- based epidemiology at the Ecole des Sciences Criminelles of the University of Lausanne. This consisted in gathering the necessary knowledge about the collection, preparation, and analysis of wastewater samples and, most importantly, to understand how to interpret the acquired data and produce useful information. In the first phase of this research, it was possible to determine that ammonium loads, measured directly in the wastewater stream, could be used to monitor the dynamics of the population served by the wastewater treatment plant. Furthermore, it was shown that on the long term, the population did not have a substantial impact on consumption patterns measured through wastewater analysis. Focussing on methadone, for which precise prescription data was available, it was possible to show that reliable consumption estimates could be obtained via wastewater analysis. This allowed to validate the selected sampling strategy, which was then used to monitor the consumption of heroin, through the measurement of morphine. The latter, in combination to prescription and sales data, provided estimates of heroin consumption in line with other indicators. These results, combined to epidemiological data, highlighted the good correspondence between measurements and expectations and, furthermore, suggested that the dark figure of heroin users evading harm-reduction programs, which would thus not be measured by conventional indicators, is likely limited. In the third part, which consisted in a collaborative study aiming at extensively investigating geographical differences in drug use, wastewater analysis was shown to be a useful complement to existing indicators. In particular for stigmatised drugs, such as cocaine and heroin, it allowed to decipher the complex picture derived from surveys and crime statistics. Globally, it provided relevant information to better understand the drug market, both from an epidemiological and repressive perspective. The fourth part focused on cannabis and on the potential of combining wastewater and survey data to overcome some of their respective limitations. Using a hierarchical inference model, it was possible to refine current estimates of cannabis prevalence in the metropolitan area of Lausanne. Wastewater results suggested that the actual prevalence is substantially higher compared to existing figures, thus supporting the common belief that surveys tend to underestimate cannabis use. Whilst being affected by several biases, the information collected through surveys allowed to overcome some of the limitations linked to the analysis of cannabis markers in wastewater (i.e., stability and limited excretion data). These findings highlighted the importance and utility of combining wastewater-based epidemiology to existing indicators about drug use. Similarly, the fifth part of the research was centred on assessing the potential uses of wastewater-based epidemiology from a law enforcement perspective. Through three concrete examples, it was shown that results from wastewater analysis can be used to produce highly relevant intelligence, allowing drug enforcement to assess the structure and operations of drug distribution networks and, ultimately, guide their decisions at the tactical and/or operational level. Finally, the potential to implement wastewater-based epidemiology to monitor the use of harmful, prohibited and counterfeit pharmaceuticals was illustrated through the analysis of sibutramine, and its urinary metabolite, in wastewater samples. The results of this research have highlighted that wastewater-based epidemiology is a useful and powerful approach with numerous scopes. Faced with the complexity of measuring a hidden phenomenon like illicit drug use, it is a major addition to the panoply of existing indicators. -- L'épidémiologie basée sur l'analyse des eaux usées (ou, selon sa définition anglaise, « wastewater-based epidemiology ») consiste en l'acquisition d'informations portant sur le mode de vie et l'état de santé d'une population via l'analyse d'échantillons d'eaux usées récoltés à l'entrée des stations d'épuration. Bien qu'il s'agisse d'une discipline récente, elle a vécu des développements importants depuis sa première mise en oeuvre en 2005, notamment dans le domaine de l'analyse des résidus de stupéfiants. Suite aux retombées médiatiques des premiers résultats de ces analyses de métabolites dans les eaux usées, de nombreux scientifiques provenant de différentes disciplines ont rejoint les rangs de cette nouvelle discipline en développant plusieurs axes de recherche distincts. Bien que reconnu pour son coté objectif et révolutionnaire, il était nécessaire d'évaluer sa valeur ajoutée en regard des indicateurs couramment utilisés pour mesurer la consommation de stupéfiants. En se focalisant sur deux dimensions spécifiques de la consommation de stupéfiants, l'objectif principal de cette recherche était focalisé sur l'évaluation de la valeur ajoutée de l'épidémiologie basée sur l'analyse des eaux usées. La première dimension abordée était celle épidémiologique ou sociétale. En d'autres termes, il s'agissait de comprendre si et comment l'analyse des eaux usées permettait de compléter la vision actuelle sur la problématique, ainsi que déterminer son utilité dans la planification des mesures préventives et des politiques en matière de stupéfiants actuelles et futures. La seconde dimension abordée était celle criminelle, en particulier, l'étude des réseaux qui se développent autour du trafic de produits stupéfiants. L'objectif était de déterminer si cette nouvelle approche combinée aux indicateurs conventionnels, fournissait de nouveaux indices quant à la structure et l'organisation des réseaux de distribution ainsi que sur les dimensions du marché. Cette recherche avait aussi un objectif implicite, développer et d'évaluer la mise en place de l'épidémiologie basée sur l'analyse des eaux usées. En particulier, il s'agissait d'acquérir les connaissances nécessaires quant à la manière de collecter, traiter et analyser des échantillons d'eaux usées, mais surtout, de comprendre comment interpréter les données afin d'en extraire les informations les plus pertinentes. Dans la première phase de cette recherche, il y pu être mis en évidence que les charges en ammonium, mesurées directement dans les eaux usées permettait de suivre la dynamique des mouvements de la population contributrice aux eaux usées de la station d'épuration de la zone étudiée. De plus, il a pu être démontré que, sur le long terme, les mouvements de la population n'avaient pas d'influence substantielle sur le pattern de consommation mesuré dans les eaux usées. En se focalisant sur la méthadone, une substance pour laquelle des données précises sur le nombre de prescriptions étaient disponibles, il a pu être démontré que des estimations exactes sur la consommation pouvaient être tirées de l'analyse des eaux usées. Ceci a permis de valider la stratégie d'échantillonnage adoptée, qui, par le bais de la morphine, a ensuite été utilisée pour suivre la consommation d'héroïne. Combinée aux données de vente et de prescription, l'analyse de la morphine a permis d'obtenir des estimations sur la consommation d'héroïne en accord avec des indicateurs conventionnels. Ces résultats, combinés aux données épidémiologiques ont permis de montrer une bonne adéquation entre les projections des deux approches et ainsi démontrer que le chiffre noir des consommateurs qui échappent aux mesures de réduction de risque, et qui ne seraient donc pas mesurés par ces indicateurs, est vraisemblablement limité. La troisième partie du travail a été réalisée dans le cadre d'une étude collaborative qui avait pour but d'investiguer la valeur ajoutée de l'analyse des eaux usées à mettre en évidence des différences géographiques dans la consommation de stupéfiants. En particulier pour des substances stigmatisées, telles la cocaïne et l'héroïne, l'approche a permis d'objectiver et de préciser la vision obtenue avec les indicateurs traditionnels du type sondages ou les statistiques policières. Globalement, l'analyse des eaux usées s'est montrée être un outil très utile pour mieux comprendre le marché des stupéfiants, à la fois sous l'angle épidémiologique et répressif. La quatrième partie du travail était focalisée sur la problématique du cannabis ainsi que sur le potentiel de combiner l'analyse des eaux usées aux données de sondage afin de surmonter, en partie, leurs limitations. En utilisant un modèle d'inférence hiérarchique, il a été possible d'affiner les actuelles estimations sur la prévalence de l'utilisation de cannabis dans la zone métropolitaine de la ville de Lausanne. Les résultats ont démontré que celle-ci est plus haute que ce que l'on s'attendait, confirmant ainsi l'hypothèse que les sondages ont tendance à sous-estimer la consommation de cannabis. Bien que biaisés, les données récoltées par les sondages ont permis de surmonter certaines des limitations liées à l'analyse des marqueurs du cannabis dans les eaux usées (i.e., stabilité et manque de données sur l'excrétion). Ces résultats mettent en évidence l'importance et l'utilité de combiner les résultats de l'analyse des eaux usées aux indicateurs existants. De la même façon, la cinquième partie du travail était centrée sur l'apport de l'analyse des eaux usées du point de vue de la police. Au travers de trois exemples, l'utilisation de l'indicateur pour produire du renseignement concernant la structure et les activités des réseaux de distribution de stupéfiants, ainsi que pour guider les choix stratégiques et opérationnels de la police, a été mise en évidence. Dans la dernière partie, la possibilité d'utiliser cette approche pour suivre la consommation de produits pharmaceutiques dangereux, interdits ou contrefaits, a été démontrée par l'analyse dans les eaux usées de la sibutramine et ses métabolites. Les résultats de cette recherche ont mis en évidence que l'épidémiologie par l'analyse des eaux usées est une approche pertinente et puissante, ayant de nombreux domaines d'application. Face à la complexité de mesurer un phénomène caché comme la consommation de stupéfiants, la valeur ajoutée de cette approche a ainsi pu être démontrée.

Design concepts for the Cherenkov Telescope Array CTA: an advanced facility for ground-based high-energy gamma-ray astronomy

Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy has had a major breakthrough with the impressive results obtained using systems of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy has a huge potential in astrophysics, particle physics and cosmology. CTA is an international initiative to build the next generation instrument, with a factor of 5-10 improvement in sensitivity in the 100 GeV-10 TeV range and the extension to energies well below 100 GeV and above 100 TeV. CTA will consist of two arrays (one in the north, one in the south) for full sky coverage and will be operated as open observatory. The design of CTA is based on currently available technology. This document reports on the status and presents the major design concepts of CTA.

Design concepts for the Cherenkov Telescope Array CTA: an advanced facility for ground-based high-energy gamma-ray astronomy

Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy has had a major breakthrough with the impressive results obtained using systems of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy has a huge potential in astrophysics, particle physics and cosmology. CTA is an international initiative to build the next generation instrument, with a factor of 5-10 improvement in sensitivity in the 100 GeV-10 TeV range and the extension to energies well below 100 GeV and above 100 TeV. CTA will consist of two arrays (one in the north, one in the south) for full sky coverage and will be operated as open observatory. The design of CTA is based on currently available technology. This document reports on the status and presents the major design concepts of CTA.

Design concepts for the Cherenkov Telescope Array CTA: an advanced facility for ground-based high-energy gamma-ray astronomy

Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy has had a major breakthrough with the impressive results obtained using systems of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy has a huge potential in astrophysics, particle physics and cosmology. CTA is an international initiative to build the next generation instrument, with a factor of 5-10 improvement in sensitivity in the 100 GeV-10 TeV range and the extension to energies well below 100 GeV and above 100 TeV. CTA will consist of two arrays (one in the north, one in the south) for full sky coverage and will be operated as open observatory. The design of CTA is based on currently available technology. This document reports on the status and presents the major design concepts of CTA.

Design of an Event Based Messaging System

B2B document handling is moving from paper to electronic networks and electronic domain very rapidly. Moving, handling and transforming large electronic business documents requires a lot from the systems handling them. This paper explores new technologies such as SOA, event-driven systems and ESB and a scalable, event-driven enterprise service bus is created to demonstrate these new approaches to message handling. As an end result, we have a small but fully functional messaging system with several different components. This is the first larger Java-project done in-house, so on the side we developed our own set of best practices of Java development, setting up configurations, tools, code repositories and class naming and much more.

Population-based multicase-control study in common tumors in Spain (MCC-Spain): rationale and study design

INTRODUCTION: We present the protocol of a large population-based case-control study of 5 common tumors in Spain (MCC-Spain) that evaluates environmental exposures and genetic factors. METHODS: Between 2008-2013, 10,183 persons aged 20-85 years were enrolled in 23 hospitals and primary care centres in 12 Spanish provinces including 1,115 cases of a new diagnosis of prostate cancer, 1,750 of breast cancer, 2,171 of colorectal cancer, 492 of gastro-oesophageal cancer, 554 cases of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) and 4,101 population-based controls matched by frequency to cases by age, sex and region of residence. Participation rates ranged from 57% (stomach cancer) to 87% (CLL cases) and from 30% to 77% in controls. Participants completed a face-to-face computerized interview on sociodemographic factors, environmental exposures, occupation, medication, lifestyle, and personal and family medical history. In addition, participants completed a self-administered food-frequency questionnaire and telephone interviews. Blood samples were collected from 76% of participants while saliva samples were collected in CLL cases and participants refusing blood extractions. Clinical information was recorded for cases and paraffin blocks and/or fresh tumor samples are available in most collaborating hospitals. Genotyping was done through an exome array enriched with genetic markers in specific pathways. Multiple analyses are planned to assess the association of environmental, personal and genetic risk factors for each tumor and to identify pleiotropic effects. DISCUSSION: This study, conducted within the Spanish Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology & Public Health (CIBERESP), is a unique initiative to evaluate etiological factors for common cancers and will promote cancer research and prevention in Spain.

BIOFILMS BASED ON CANIHUA FLOUR (Chenopodium Pallidicaule): DESIGN AND CHARACTERIZATION

This work aims to (1) produce and characterize the flour obtained from two varieties of canihua, cupi and illpa-inia, and (2) evaluate the ability of these flours to form biofilms. The flours produced contain proteins, starches, lipids, organic substances containing phenol groups, and high percentages of unsaturated fatty acids. Films produced from the illpa variety presented lower water vapor permeability and larger Young’s modulus values than the films formed from the cupi variety. Both films were yellowish and displayed a high light blocking ability (as compared with polyethylene films), which can be attributed to the presence of phenolic compounds. Furthermore, they showed lesser solubility and water permeability than other polysaccharide films, which may be the result of the higher protein (12%–13.8%) and lipid (11%) contents in canihua flours, as well as the formation of a larger number of S–S bonds. On the other hand, these films presented a single vitreous transition temperature at low temperatures (< 0 °C), crystallization of the A and Vh types, and an additional diffraction peak at 2 = 7.5º, ascribed to the presence of essential fatty acids in canihua flour. Canihua flour can form films with adequate properties and shows promise for potential applications in food packaging, because it acts as a good barrier to incident ultraviolet light.

Study of ligand-based virtual screening tools in computer-aided drug design

Virtual screening is a central technique in drug discovery today. Millions of molecules can be tested in silico with the aim to only select the most promising and test them experimentally. The topic of this thesis is ligand-based virtual screening tools which take existing active molecules as starting point for finding new drug candidates. One goal of this thesis was to build a model that gives the probability that two molecules are biologically similar as function of one or more chemical similarity scores. Another important goal was to evaluate how well different ligand-based virtual screening tools are able to distinguish active molecules from inactives. One more criterion set for the virtual screening tools was their applicability in scaffold-hopping, i.e. finding new active chemotypes. In the first part of the work, a link was defined between the abstract chemical similarity score given by a screening tool and the probability that the two molecules are biologically similar. These results help to decide objectively which virtual screening hits to test experimentally. The work also resulted in a new type of data fusion method when using two or more tools. In the second part, five ligand-based virtual screening tools were evaluated and their performance was found to be generally poor. Three reasons for this were proposed: false negatives in the benchmark sets, active molecules that do not share the binding mode, and activity cliffs. In the third part of the study, a novel visualization and quantification method is presented for evaluation of the scaffold-hopping ability of virtual screening tools.

Design and Analysis of Forward Error Control Coding and Signaling for Guaranteeing QoS in Wireless Broadcast Systems

Broadcasting systems are networks where the transmission is received by several terminals. Generally broadcast receivers are passive devices in the network, meaning that they do not interact with the transmitter. Providing a certain Quality of Service (QoS) for the receivers in heterogeneous reception environment with no feedback is not an easy task. Forward error control coding can be used for protection against transmission errors to enhance the QoS for broadcast services. For good performance in terrestrial wireless networks, diversity should be utilized. The diversity is utilized by application of interleaving together with the forward error correction codes. In this dissertation the design and analysis of forward error control and control signalling for providing QoS in wireless broadcasting systems are studied. Control signaling is used in broadcasting networks to give the receiver necessary information on how to connect to the network itself and how to receive the services that are being transmitted. Usually control signalling is considered to be transmitted through a dedicated path in the systems. Therefore, the relationship of the signaling and service data paths should be considered early in the design phase. Modeling and simulations are used in the case studies of this dissertation to study this relationship. This dissertation begins with a survey on the broadcasting environment and mechanisms for providing QoS therein. Then case studies present analysis and design of such mechanisms in real systems. The mechanisms for providing QoS considering signaling and service data paths and their relationship at the DVB-H link layer are analyzed as the first case study. In particular the performance of different service data decoding mechanisms and optimal signaling transmission parameter selection are presented. The second case study investigates the design of signaling and service data paths for the more modern DVB-T2 physical layer. Furthermore, by comparing the performances of the signaling and service data paths by simulations, configuration guidelines for the DVB-T2 physical layer signaling are given. The presented guidelines can prove useful when configuring DVB-T2 transmission networks. Finally, recommendations for the design of data and signalling paths are given based on findings from the case studies. The requirements for the signaling design should be derived from the requirements for the main services. Generally, these requirements for signaling should be more demanding as the signaling is the enabler for service reception.

Bayesian methods for estimation, optimization and experimental design

Mathematical models often contain parameters that need to be calibrated from measured data. The emergence of efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods has made the Bayesian approach a standard tool in quantifying the uncertainty in the parameters. With MCMC, the parameter estimation problem can be solved in a fully statistical manner, and the whole distribution of the parameters can be explored, instead of obtaining point estimates and using, e.g., Gaussian approximations. In this thesis, MCMC methods are applied to parameter estimation problems in chemical reaction engineering, population ecology, and climate modeling. Motivated by the climate model experiments, the methods are developed further to make them more suitable for problems where the model is computationally intensive. After the parameters are estimated, one can start to use the model for various tasks. Two such tasks are studied in this thesis: optimal design of experiments, where the task is to design the next measurements so that the parameter uncertainty is minimized, and model-based optimization, where a model-based quantity, such as the product yield in a chemical reaction model, is optimized. In this thesis, novel ways to perform these tasks are developed, based on the output of MCMC parameter estimation. A separate topic is dynamical state estimation, where the task is to estimate the dynamically changing model state, instead of static parameters. For example, in numerical weather prediction, an estimate of the state of the atmosphere must constantly be updated based on the recently obtained measurements. In this thesis, a novel hybrid state estimation method is developed, which combines elements from deterministic and random sampling methods.

Design and development of the architecture of an agricultural mobile robot

Parameters such as tolerance, scale and agility utilized in data sampling for using in Precision Agriculture required an expressive number of researches and development of techniques and instruments for automation. It is highlighted the employment of methodologies in remote sensing used in coupled to a Geographic Information System (GIS), adapted or developed for agricultural use. Aiming this, the application of Agricultural Mobile Robots is a strong tendency, mainly in the European Union, the USA and Japan. In Brazil, researches are necessary for the development of robotics platforms, serving as a basis for semi-autonomous and autonomous navigation systems. The aim of this work is to describe the project of an experimental platform for data acquisition in field for the study of the spatial variability and development of agricultural robotics technologies to operate in agricultural environments. The proposal is based on a systematization of scientific work to choose the design parameters utilized for the construction of the model. The kinematic study of the mechanical structure was made by the virtual prototyping process, based on modeling and simulating of the tension applied in frame, using the.