Regional deterministic characterization of fracture networks and its application to GIS-based rock fall risk assessment

The study investigates the possibility to incorporate fracture intensity and block geometry as spatially continuous parameters in GIS-based systems. For this purpose, a deterministic method has been implemented to estimate block size (Bloc3D) and joint frequency (COLTOP). In addition to measuring the block size, the Bloc3D Method provides a 3D representation of the shape of individual blocks. These two methods were applied using field measurements (joint set orientation and spacing) performed over a large field area, in the Swiss Alps. This area is characterized by a complex geology, a number of different rock masses and varying degrees of metamorphism. The spatial variability of the parameters was evaluated with regard to lithology and major faults. A model incorporating these measurements and observations into a GIS system to assess the risk associated with rock falls is proposed. The analysis concludes with a discussion on the feasibility of such an application in regularly and irregularly jointed rock masses, with persistent and impersistent discontinuities.

Model-based Segmentation and Image Fusion of 3D Computed Tomography and 3D Ultrasound of the Eye for Radiotherapy Planning

For radiotherapy treatment planning of retinoblastoma inchildhood, Computed Tomography (CT) represents thestandard method for tumor volume delineation, despitesome inherent limitations. CT scan is very useful inproviding information on physical density for dosecalculation and morphological volumetric information butpresents a low sensitivity in assessing the tumorviability. On the other hand, 3D ultrasound (US) allows ahigh accurate definition of the tumor volume thanks toits high spatial resolution but it is not currentlyintegrated in the treatment planning but used only fordiagnosis and follow-up. Our ultimate goal is anautomatic segmentation of gross tumor volume (GTV) in the3D US, the segmentation of the organs at risk (OAR) inthe CT and the registration of both. In this paper, wepresent some preliminary results in this direction. Wepresent 3D active contour-based segmentation of the eyeball and the lens in CT images; the presented approachincorporates the prior knowledge of the anatomy by usinga 3D geometrical eye model. The automated segmentationresults are validated by comparing with manualsegmentations. Then, for the fusion of 3D CT and USimages, we present two approaches: (i) landmark-basedtransformation, and (ii) object-based transformation thatmakes use of eye ball contour information on CT and USimages.

Factor structure of early smoking experiences and associations with smoking behavior: valence or sensitivity model?

The Early Smoking Experience (ESE) questionnaire is the most widely used questionnaire to assess initial subjective experiences of cigarette smoking. However, its factor structure is not clearly defined and can be perceived from two main standpoints: valence, or positive and negative experiences, and sensitivity to nicotine. This article explores the ESE's factor structure and determines which standpoint was more relevant. It compares two groups of young Swiss men (German- and French-speaking). We examined baseline data on 3,368 tobacco users from a representative sample in the ongoing Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF). ESE, continued tobacco use, weekly smoking and nicotine dependence were assessed. Exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) and structural equation modeling (SEM) were performed. ESEM clearly distinguished positive experiences from negative experiences, but negative experiences were divided in experiences related to dizziness and experiences related to irritations. SEM underlined the reinforcing effects of positive experiences, but also of experiences related to dizziness on nicotine dependence and weekly smoking. The best ESE structure for predictive accuracy of experiences on smoking behavior was a compromise between the valence and sensitivity standpoints, which showed clinical relevance.

Combining clinical factors and quantitative ultrasound improves the detection of women both at low and high risk for hip fracture.

We hypothesized that combining clinical risk factors (CRF) with the heel stiffness index (SI) measured via quantitative ultrasound (QUS) would improve the detection of women both at low and high risk for hip fracture. Categorizing women by risk score improved the specificity of detection to 42.4%, versus 33.8% using CRF alone and 38.4% using the SI alone. This combined CRF-SI score could be used wherever and whenever DXA is not readily accessible. INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: Several strategies have been proposed to identify women at high risk for osteoporosis-related fractures; we wanted to investigate whether combining clinical risk factors (CRF) and heel QUS parameters could provide a more accurate tool to identify women at both low and high risk for hip fracture than either CRF or QUS alone. METHODS: We pooled two Caucasian cohorts, EPIDOS and SEMOF, into a large database named "EPISEM", in which 12,064 women, 70 to 100 years old, were analyzed. Amongst all the CRF available in EPISEM, we used only the ones which were statistically significant in a Cox multivariate model. Then, we constructed a risk score, by combining the QUS-derived heel stiffness index (SI) and the following seven CRF: patient age, body mass index (BMI), fracture history, fall history, diabetes history, chair-test results, and past estrogen treatment. RESULTS: Using the composite SI-CRF score, 42% of the women who did not report a hip fracture were found to be at low risk at baseline, and 57% of those who subsequently sustained a fracture were at high risk. Using the SI alone, corresponding percentages were 38% and 52%; using CRF alone, 34% and 53%. The number of subjects in the intermediate group was reduced from 5,400 (including 112 hip fractures) and 5,032 (including 111 hip fractures) to 4,549 (including 100 including fractures) for the CRF and QUS alone versus the combination score. CONCLUSIONS: Combining clinical risk factors to heel bone ultrasound appears to correctly identify more women at low risk for hip fracture than either the stiffness index or the CRF alone; it improves the detection of women both at low and high risk.

Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.

A Gain Scheduling Model Predictive Controller for Blood Glucose Control in Type 1 Diabetes

This paper presents a control strategy for blood glucose(BG) level regulation in type 1 diabetic patients. To design the controller, model-based predictive control scheme has been applied to a newly developed diabetic patient model. The controller is provided with a feedforward loop to improve meal compensation, a gain-scheduling scheme to account for different BG levels, and an asymmetric cost function to reduce hypoglycemic risk. A simulation environment that has been approved for testing of artificial pancreas control algorithms has been used to test thecontroller. The simulation results show a good controller performance in fasting conditions and meal disturbance rejection, and robustness against model–patient mismatch and errors in mealestimation

Missed appointments in an outpatient clinic for adolescents, an approach to predict the risk of missing.

PURPOSE: To predict the risk of an adolescent patient to miss an appointment, based on the previous appointments and on the characteristics of the patient and the appointment. METHODS: Two thousand one hundred ninety-three (1873 females) patients aged 12 to 20 years having scheduled at least four appointments were included. We assessed the rate of missed nonexcused appointments of each patient. Second, a Markovian multilevel model was used to predict the risk of defaulting. RESULTS: Forty-five percent of the patients have not missed even once, and 14% of females and 17% of males have missed >25% of their appointments. Females show two types of behaviors (an abstract concept that groups individuals based on a combination of their appointment-keeping and their recorded type of healthcare need) depending on the diagnosis. Somatic, gynecology, violence, and counseling diagnoses are mostly grouped together. In this group, having already missed and having an appointment with a paramedical provider increases the risk of missing. In the second group (eating disorders and psychiatric diagnoses) having already missed and a longer delay between appointments influence the risk of missing, although the risk is lower for this latter group. Males only show one type of behavior regarding missed appointments. Having missed a previous appointment, being older, having cancelled the next to last appointment and the type of diagnosis explain the risk of missing. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who have already defaulted have a higher risk of defaulting again. Means of control regarding missed appointments should consequently focus on defaulters, to decrease the associated workload. Reminders could be a solution for the follow-up appointments scheduled with a long delay.

At-risk drinking and drug use among patients seeking care in an emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: This study reports the frequency of alcohol use and associated tobacco and drug use among emergency department (ED) patients, in order to increase physician awareness and treatment of women and men seeking care in ED settings. METHOD: All adults seen in the ED at the University Hospital in Lausanne, Switzerland, between 11 AM and 11 PM were screened by direct interview for at-risk drinking, tobacco use, drug use, and depression during an 18-month period. RESULTS: A total of 8,599 patients (4,006 women and 4,593 men) participated in the screening procedure and provided full data on the variables in our analysis. The mean age was 51.9 years for women and 45.0 years for men; 57.5% (n = 2,304) of women and 58.5% (n = 2,688) of men were being treated for trauma. Based on guidelines of the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, 13.1% (n = 523) of the women were at-risk drinkers, 57.3% (n = 2,301) were low-risk drinkers, and 29.6% (n = 1,182) were abstinent. Among men, 32.8% (n = 1,507) met criteria for at-risk drinking, 51.8% (n = 2,380) met criteria for low-risk drinking, and 15.4% (n = 706) were abstinent. Younger individuals (ages 18-30) had significantly higher rates of episodic heavy drinking episodes, whereas at-risk older patients were more likely to drink on a daily basis. A binary model found that women and men who drank at at-risk levels are more likely to use tobacco (odds ratio [OR] = 2.48, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.0-3.08) and illicit drugs (OR = 5.91, CI: 3.32- 10.54) compared with abstinent and low-risk drinkers. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports systematic alcohol screening of women and men seen in EDs and suggests that patterns of alcohol and drug use vary by age and gender.

Derivation and validation of a prognostic model for pulmonary embolism.

RATIONALE: An objective and simple prognostic model for patients with pulmonary embolism could be helpful in guiding initial intensity of treatment. OBJECTIVES: To develop a clinical prediction rule that accurately classifies patients with pulmonary embolism into categories of increasing risk of mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. METHODS: We randomly allocated 15,531 inpatient discharges with pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our prediction rule using logistic regression with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome, and patient demographic and clinical data routinely available at presentation as potential predictor variables. We externally validated the rule in 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism from Switzerland and France. MEASUREMENTS: We compared mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across the derivation and two validation samples. MAIN RESULTS: The prediction rule is based on 11 simple patient characteristics that were independently associated with mortality and stratifies patients with pulmonary embolism into five severity classes, with 30-day mortality rates of 0-1.6% in class I, 1.7-3.5% in class II, 3.2-7.1% in class III, 4.0-11.4% in class IV, and 10.0-24.5% in class V across the derivation and validation samples. Inpatient death and nonfatal complications were <or= 1.1% among patients in class I and <or= 1.9% among patients in class II. CONCLUSIONS: Our rule accurately classifies patients with pulmonary embolism into classes of increasing risk of mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Further validation of the rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid to guide the initial management of patients with pulmonary embolism.

Canakinumab reduces the risk of acute gouty arthritis flares during initiation of allopurinol treatment: results of a double-blind, randomised study.

Objective This study assessed the efficacy and safety of canakinumab, a fully human anti-interleukin 1 beta monoclonal antibody, for prophylaxis against acute gouty arthritis flares in patients initiating urate-lowering treatment.Methods In this double-blind, double-dummy, dose-ranging study, 432 patients with gouty arthritis initiating allopurinol treatment were randomised 1:1:1:1:1:1:2 to receive: a single dose of canakinumab, 25, 50, 100, 200, or 300 mg subcutaneously; 4 x 4-weekly doses of canakinumab (50 + 50 + 25 + 25 mg subcutaneously); or daily colchicine 0.5 mg orally for 16 weeks. Patients recorded details of flares in diaries. The study aimed to determine the canakinumab dose having equivalent efficacy to colchicine 0.5 mg at 16 weeks.Results A dose-response for canakinumab was not apparent with any of the four predefined dose-response models. The estimated canakinumab dose with equivalent efficacy to colchicine was below the range of doses tested. At 16 weeks, there was a 62% to 72% reduction in the mean number of flares per patient for canakinumab doses >= 50 mg versus colchicine based on a negative binomial model (rate ratio: 0.28-0.38, p <= 0.0083), and the percentage of patients experiencing >= 1 flare was significantly lower for all canakinumab doses (15% to 27%) versus colchicine (44%, p<0.05). There was a 64% to 72% reduction in the risk of experiencing >= 1 flare for canakinumab doses >= 50 mg versus colchicine at 16 weeks (hazard ratio (HR): 0.28-0.36, p <= 0.05). The incidence of adverse events was similar across treatment groups.Conclusions Single canakinumab doses >= 50 mg or four 4-weekly doses provided superior prophylaxis against flares compared with daily colchicine 0.5 mg.

Development of a Subgrade Drainage Model for Unpaved Roads, TR-654, 2015

With over 68 thousand miles of gravel roads in Iowa and the importance of these roads within the farm-to-market transportation system, proper water management becomes critical for maintaining the integrity of the roadway materials. However, the build-up of water within the aggregate subbase can lead to frost boils and ultimately potholes forming at the road surface. The aggregate subbase and subgrade soils under these gravel roads are produced with material opportunistically chosen from local sources near the site and, many times, the compositions of these sublayers are far from ideal in terms of proper water drainage with the full effects of this shortcut not being fully understood. The primary objective of this project was to provide a physically-based model for evaluating the drainability of potential subbase and subgrade materials for gravel roads in Iowa. The Richards equation provided the appropriate framework to study the transient unsaturated flow that usually occurs through the subbase and subgrade of a gravel road. From which, we identified that the saturated hydraulic conductivity, Ks, was a key parameter driving the time to drain of subgrade soils found in Iowa, thus being a good proxy variable for accessing roadway drainability. Using Ks, derived from soil texture, we were able to identify potential problem areas in terms of roadway drainage . It was found that there is a threshold for Ks of 15 cm/day that determines if the roadway will drain efficiently, based on the requirement that the time to drain, Td, the surface roadway layer does not exceed a 2-hr limit. Two of the three highest abundant textures (loam and silty clay loam), which cover nearly 60% of the state of Iowa, were found to have average Td values greater than the 2-hr limit. With such a large percentage of the state at risk for the formation of boils due to the soil with relatively low saturated hydraulic conductivity values, it seems pertinent that we propose alternative design and/or maintenance practices to limit the expensive repair work in Iowa. The addition of drain tiles or French mattresses my help address drainage problems. However, before pursuing this recommendation, a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis is needed.

Use of niche models in invasive species risk assessments.

Risk maps summarizing landscape suitability of novel areas for invading species can be valuable tools for preventing species' invasions or controlling their spread, but methods employed for development of such maps remain variable and unstandardized. We discuss several considerations in development of such models, including types of distributional information that should be used, the nature of explanatory variables that should be incorporated, and caveats regarding model testing and evaluation. We highlight that, in the case of invasive species, such distributional predictions should aim to derive the best hypothesis of the potential distribution of the species by using (1) all distributional information available, including information from both the native range and other invaded regions; (2) predictors linked as directly as is feasible to the physiological requirements of the species; and (3) modelling procedures that carefully avoid overfitting to the training data. Finally, model testing and evaluation should focus on well-predicted presences, and less on efficient prediction of absences; a k-fold regional cross-validation test is discussed.

N-acetylcysteine normalizes neurochemical changes in the glutathione-deficient schizophrenia mouse model during development.

BACKGROUND: Glutathione (GSH) is the major cellular redox-regulator and antioxidant. Redox-imbalance due to genetically impaired GSH synthesis is among the risk factors for schizophrenia. Here we used a mouse model with chronic GSH deficit induced by knockout (KO) of the key GSH-synthesizing enzyme, glutamate-cysteine ligase modulatory subunit (GCLM).¦METHODS: With high-resolution magnetic resonance spectroscopy at 14.1 T, we determined the neurochemical profile of GCLM-KO, heterozygous, and wild-type mice in anterior cortex throughout development in a longitudinal study design.¦RESULTS: Chronic GSH deficit was accompanied by an elevation of glutamine (Gln), glutamate (Glu), Gln/Glu, N-acetylaspartate, myo-Inositol, lactate, and alanine. Changes were predominantly present at prepubertal ages (postnatal days 20 and 30). Treatment with N-acetylcysteine from gestation on normalized most neurochemical alterations to wild-type level.¦CONCLUSIONS: Changes observed in GCLM-KO anterior cortex, notably the increase in Gln, Glu, and Gln/Glu, were similar to those reported in early schizophrenia, emphasizing the link between redox imbalance and the disease and validating the model. The data also highlight the prepubertal period as a sensitive time for redox-related neurochemical changes and demonstrate beneficial effects of early N-acetylcysteine treatment. Moreover, the data demonstrate the translational value of magnetic resonance spectroscopy to study brain disease in preclinical models.

Changes in the risk of death after HIV seroconversion compared with mortality in the general population.

CONTEXT: Mortality among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals has decreased dramatically in countries with good access to treatment and may now be close to mortality in the general uninfected population. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate changes in the mortality gap between HIV-infected individuals and the general uninfected population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION: Mortality following HIV seroconversion in a large multinational collaboration of HIV seroconverter cohorts (CASCADE) was compared with expected mortality, calculated by applying general population death rates matched on demographic factors. A Poisson-based model adjusted for duration of infection was constructed to assess changes over calendar time in the excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals. Data pooled in September 2007 were analyzed in March 2008, covering years at risk 1981-2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals compared with that of the general uninfected population. RESULTS: Of 16,534 individuals with median duration of follow-up of 6.3 years (range, 1 day to 23.8 years), 2571 died, compared with 235 deaths expected in an equivalent general population cohort. The excess mortality rate (per 1000 person-years) decreased from 40.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 38.5-43.0; 1275.9 excess deaths in 31,302 person-years) before the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (pre-1996) to 6.1 (95% CI, 4.8-7.4; 89.6 excess deaths in 14,703 person-years) in 2004-2006 (adjusted excess hazard ratio, 0.05 [95% CI, 0.03-0.09] for 2004-2006 vs pre-1996). By 2004-2006, no excess mortality was observed in the first 5 years following HIV seroconversion among those infected sexually, though a cumulative excess probability of death remained over the longer term (4.8% [95% CI, 2.5%-8.6%] in the first 10 years among those aged 15-24 years). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates for HIV-infected persons have become much closer to general mortality rates since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. In industrialized countries, persons infected sexually with HIV now appear to experience mortality rates similar to those of the general population in the first 5 years following infection, though a mortality excess remains as duration of HIV infection lengthens.

Meta-analysis: subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk for coronary heart disease and mortality

BACKGROUND: Data on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality are conflicting. PURPOSE: To summarize prospective evidence about the relationship between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and CHD and mortality. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE (1950 to January 2008) without language restrictions and reference lists of retrieved articles were searched. STUDY SELECTION: Two reviewers screened and selected cohort studies that measured thyroid function and then followed persons prospectively to assess CHD or mortality. DATA EXTRACTION: By using a standardized protocol and forms, 2 reviewers independently abstracted and assessed studies. DATA SYNTHESIS: Ten of 12 identified studies involved population-based cohorts that included 14 449 participants. All 10 population-based cohort studies examined risks associated with subclinical hypothyroidism (2134 CHD events and 2822 deaths), whereas only 5 examined risks associated with subclinical hyperthyroidism (1392 CHD events and 1993 deaths). In a random-effects model, the relative risk (RR) for subclinical hypothyroidism for CHD was 1.20 (95% CI, 0.97 to 1.49; P for heterogeneity = 0.14; I(2 )= 33.4%). Risk estimates were lower when higher-quality studies were pooled (RR, 1.02 to 1.08) and were higher among participants younger than 65 years (RR, 1.51 [CI, 1.09 to 2.09] for studies with mean participant age <65 years and 1.05 [CI, 0.90 to 1.22] for studies with mean participant age > or =65 years). The RR was 1.18 (CI, 0.98 to 1.42) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.12 (CI, 0.99 to 1.26) for total mortality. For subclinical hyperthyroidism, the RR was 1.21 (CI, 0.88 to 1.68) for CHD, 1.19 (CI, 0.81 to 1.76) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.12 (CI, 0.89 to 1.42) for total mortality (P for heterogeneity >0.50; I(2 )= 0% for all studies). LIMITATIONS: Individual studies adjusted for different potential confounders, and 1 study provided only unadjusted data. Publication bias or selective reporting of outcomes could not be excluded. CONCLUSION: Subclinical hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism may be associated with a modest increased risk for CHD and mortality, with lower risk estimates when pooling higher-quality studies and larger CIs for subclinical hyperthyroidism