940 resultados para conditional independence


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Globalisation has transformed “independence” into, at best, “inter-dependence”. In Latin American film, this process has been experienced as a decline in the national productions, now usually co-productions, and a tendency towards the self-exoticising as films cater for a festival-circuit global audience; similarly, theatrical exhibition takes place in one of a handful of the global multiplex complexes. Moreover, narrative film itself has long been regarded as inherently “dependent”, on the conservative sectors that have provided its finance, with the word “independent” referring to authorial features only. However, the very same processes that have allowed for such an unprecedented corporate control of these film industries have also spawned a parallel network of local, regional and national filmmaking, distribution and exhibition through digital media. From the “Mi Cine” project in Mexico to the “Cine Piquetero” in Argentina, digital filmmaking is empowering viewers and restoring agency to local filmmakers. In this paper I argue for this understanding of “independence” in the contemporary cinematic spheres of Latin America: the re-appropriation, amidst the transnationalism of the day, of the democratising potential of cinema that Walter Benjamin once thought was inherent to the medium.

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Background: Reablement, also known as restorative care, is one possible approach to home-care services for older adults at risk of functional decline. Unlike traditional home-care services, reablement is frequently time-limited (usually six to 12 weeks) and aims to maximise independence by offering an intensive multidisciplinary, person-centred and goal-directed intervention. Objectives: To assess the effects of time-limited home-care reablement services (up to 12 weeks) for maintaining and improving the functional independence of older adults (aged 65 years or more) when compared to usual home-care or wait-list control group. Search methods: We searched the following databases with no language restrictions during April to June 2015: the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL); MEDLINE (OvidSP); Embase (OvidSP); PsycINFO (OvidSP); ERIC; Sociological Abstracts; ProQuest Dissertations and Theses; CINAHL (EBSCOhost); SIGLE (OpenGrey); AgeLine and Social Care Online. We also searched the reference lists of relevant studies and reviews as well as contacting authors in the field. Selection criteria: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), cluster randomised or quasi-randomised trials of time-limited reablement services for older adults (aged 65 years or more) delivered in their home; and incorporated a usual home-care or wait-list control group. Data collection and analysis: Two authors independently assessed studies for inclusion, extracted data, assessed the risk of bias of individual studies and considered quality of the evidence using GRADE. We contacted study authors for additional information where needed. Main results: Two studies, comparing reablement with usual home-care services with 811 participants, met our eligibility criteria for inclusion; we also identified three potentially eligible studies, but findings were not yet available. One included study was conducted in Western Australia with 750 participants (mean age 82.29 years). The second study was conducted in Norway (61 participants; mean age 79 years). We are very uncertain as to the effects of reablement compared with usual care as the evidence was of very low quality for all of the outcomes reported. The main findings were as follows. Functional status: very low quality evidence suggested that reablement may be slightly more effective than usual care in improving function at nine to 12 months (lower scores reflect greater independence; standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.30; 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.53 to -0.06; 2 studies with 249 participants). Adverse events: reablement may make little or no difference to mortality at 12 months' follow-up (RR 0.97; 95% CI 0.74 to 1.29; 2 studies with 811 participants) or rates of unplanned hospital admission at 24 months (RR 0.94; 95% CI 0.85 to 1.03; 1 study with 750 participants). The very low quality evidence also means we are uncertain whether reablement may influence quality of life (SMD -0.23; 95% CI -0.48 to 0.02; 2 trials with 249 participants) or living arrangements (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.34; 1 study with 750 participants) at time points up to 12 months. People receiving reablement may be slightly less likely to have been approved for a higher level of personal care than people receiving usual care over the 24 months' follow-up (RR 0.87; 95% CI 0.77 to 0.98; 1 trial, 750 participants). Similarly, although there may be a small reduction in total aggregated home and healthcare costs over the 24-month follow-up (reablement: AUD 19,888; usual care: AUD 22,757; 1 trial with 750 participants), we are uncertain about the size and importance of these effects as the results were based on very low quality evidence. Neither study reported user satisfaction with the service. Authors' conclusions: There is considerable uncertainty regarding the effects of reablement as the evidence was of very low quality according to our GRADE ratings. Therefore, the effectiveness of reablement services cannot be supported or refuted until more robust evidence becomes available. There is an urgent need for high quality trials across different health and social care systems due to the increasingly high profile of reablement services in policy and practice in several countries.

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This paper evaluates the performance of a survivorship bias-free data set of Portuguese funds investing in Euro-denominated bonds by using conditional models that consider the public information available to investors when the returns are generated. We find that bond funds underperform the market significantly and by an economically relevant magnitude. This underperformance cannot be explained by the expenses they charge. Our findings support the use of conditional performance evaluation models, since we find strong evidence of both time-varying risk and performance, dependent on the slope of the term structure and the inverse relative wealth variables. We also show that survivorship bias has a significant impact on performance estimates. Furthermore, during the European debt crisis, bond fund managers performed significantly better than in non-crisis periods and were able to achieve neutral performance. This improved performance throughout the crisis seems to be related to changes in funds’ investment styles.

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Introduction: One of the known risk factors for abuse and neglect of the elderly is the decrease in functional capacity, contributing to self care dependency of instrumental activities of daily living and basic activities of daily living (OMS, 2015). Methods: Cross-sectional study with non probabilistic sample of 333 elderly, performed in a hospital, homes and day centers for the elderly. The data collection protocol included socio-demographic data, Questions to elicit Elder Abuse (Carney, Kahan & Paris, 2003 adap. By Ferreira Alves & Sousa, 2005), scale of instrumental activities of daily living Lawton and Brody and Katz index to assess the level of independence in activities of daily living. Objectives: To evaluate the association between abuse and neglect in the elderly, instrumental activities of daily living and level of independence in activities of daily living. Results: Emotional abuse is significantly correlated with the level of independence in activities of daily living (p = 0.000), older people with less independence tend to have higher levels of emotional abuse. The total abuse is significantly correlated with the levels of independence in activities of daily living (p = 0.002), less independent elderly tend to suffer greater abuse and neglect. There were no statistically significant associations between abuse and neglect and instrumental activities of daily living. Conclusions: The less independent elderly are more vulnerable to situations of abuse and neglect, being more exposed to emotional abuse. These results point to the need for health professionals/ nurses develop prevention interventions, including strategies to support carers and early screening in less independent elderly.

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Introduction: One of the known risk factors for abuse and neglect of the elderly is the decrease in functional capacity, contributing to self care dependency of instrumental activities of daily living and basic activities of daily living (OMS, 2015). Methods: Cross-sectional study with non probabilistic sample of 333 elderly, performed in a hospital, homes and day centers for the elderly. The data collection protocol included socio-demographic data, Questions to elicit Elder Abuse (Carney, Kahan & Paris, 2003 adap. By Ferreira Alves & Sousa, 2005), scale of instrumental activities of daily living Lawton and Brody and Katz index to assess the level of independence in activities of daily living. Objectives: To evaluate the association between abuse and neglect in the elderly, instrumental activities of daily living and level of independence in activities of daily living. Results: Emotional abuse is significantly correlated with the level of independence in activities of daily living (p = 0.000), older people with less independence tend to have higher levels of emotional abuse. The total abuse is significantly correlated with the levels of independence in activities of daily living (p = 0.002), less independent elderly tend to suffer greater abuse and neglect. There were no statistically significant associations between abuse and neglect and instrumental activities of daily living. Conclusions: The less independent elderly are more vulnerable to situations of abuse and neglect, being more exposed to emotional abuse. These results point to the need for health professionals/ nurses develop prevention interventions, including strategies to support carers and early screening in less independent elderly.

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This study developed an individualized proposal to promote, from the family context, the independence of two four-year-old children with motor disabilities. The proposal aimed at helping mothers and fathers to promote different skills within the family context. The results of this study revealed that when the families of children with disabilities are oriented, it is easier for them to start processes that otherwise would be postponed. As a result, it is recommended to create proposals to support the parents and help them to build their own family-growth processes and develop independence living skills in their children with motor disabilities.

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In this PhD thesis a new firm level conditional risk measure is developed. It is named Joint Value at Risk (JVaR) and is defined as a quantile of a conditional distribution of interest, where the conditioning event is a latent upper tail event. It addresses the problem of how risk changes under extreme volatility scenarios. The properties of JVaR are studied based on a stochastic volatility representation of the underlying process. We prove that JVaR is leverage consistent, i.e. it is an increasing function of the dependence parameter in the stochastic representation. A feasible class of nonparametric M-estimators is introduced by exploiting the elicitability of quantiles and the stochastic ordering theory. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the two stage M-estimator are derived, and a simulation study is reported to illustrate its finite-sample properties. Parametric estimation methods are also discussed. The relation with the VaR is exploited to introduce a volatility contribution measure, and a tail risk measure is also proposed. The analysis of the dynamic JVaR is presented based on asymmetric stochastic volatility models. Empirical results with S&P500 data show that accounting for extreme volatility levels is relevant to better characterize the evolution of risk. The work is complemented by a review of the literature, where we provide an overview on quantile risk measures, elicitable functionals and several stochastic orderings.

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The purpose of this thesis is to clarify the role of non-equilibrium stationary currents of Markov processes in the context of the predictability of future states of the system. Once the connection between the predictability and the conditional entropy is established, we provide a comprehensive approach to the definition of a multi-particle Markov system. In particular, starting from the well-known theory of random walk on network, we derive the non-linear master equation for an interacting multi-particle system under the one-step process hypothesis, highlighting the limits of its tractability and the prop- erties of its stationary solution. Lastly, in order to study the impact of the NESS on the predictability at short times, we analyze the conditional entropy by modulating the intensity of the stationary currents, both for a single-particle and a multi-particle Markov system. The results obtained analytically are numerically tested on a 5-node cycle network and put in correspondence with the stationary entropy production. Furthermore, because of the low dimensionality of the single-particle system, an analysis of its spectral properties as a function of the modulated stationary currents is performed.

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This article analyzes food insecurity and hunger in Brazilian families with children under five years of age. This was a nationally representative cross-sectional study using data from the National Demographic and Health Survey on Women and Children (PNDS-2006), in which the outcome variable was moderate to severe food insecurity, measured by the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale (EBIA). Prevalence estimates and prevalence ratios were generated with 95% confidence intervals. The results showed a high prevalence of moderate to severe food insecurity, concentrated in the North and Northeast regions (30.7%), in economic classes D and E (34%), and in beneficiaries of conditional cash transfer programs (36.5%). Multivariate analysis showed that the socioeconomic relative risks (beneficiaries of conditional cash transfers), regional relative risks (North and Northeast regions), and economic relative risks (classes D and E) were 1.8, 2.0 and 2.4, respectively. Aggregation of the three risks showed 48% of families with moderate to severe food insecurity, meaning that adults and children were going hungry during the three months preceding the survey.

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In acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) studies it is quite common to observe viral load measurements collected irregularly over time. Moreover, these measurements can be subjected to some upper and/or lower detection limits depending on the quantification assays. A complication arises when these continuous repeated measures have a heavy-tailed behavior. For such data structures, we propose a robust structure for a censored linear model based on the multivariate Student's t-distribution. To compensate for the autocorrelation existing among irregularly observed measures, a damped exponential correlation structure is employed. An efficient expectation maximization type algorithm is developed for computing the maximum likelihood estimates, obtaining as a by-product the standard errors of the fixed effects and the log-likelihood function. The proposed algorithm uses closed-form expressions at the E-step that rely on formulas for the mean and variance of a truncated multivariate Student's t-distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to an Human Immunodeficiency Virus-AIDS (HIV-AIDS) study and several simulation studies.

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The copper and cadmium complexation properties in natural sediment suspensions of reservoirs of the Tietê River were studied using the solid membrane copper and cadmium ion-selective electrodes. The complexation and the average conditional stability constants were determined under equilibrium conditions at pH=6.00 ± 0.05 in a medium of 1.0 mol L-1 sodium nitrate, using the Scatchard method. The copper and cadmium electrodes presented Nernstian behavior from 1x10-6 to 1x10-3 mol L-1 of total metal concentration. Scatchard graphs suggest two classes of binding sites for both metals. A multivariate study was done to correlate the reservoirs and the variables: complexation properties, size, total organic carbon, volatile acid sulfide, E II and pH.

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Nowadays the consumer market demands a gradually increase in the products' quality control. The manual control that exits, used in animal production, shows ineficiency in warrating an increasing percentual of the desirable quality, so this can only be reached when an effective animal tracebility system is applied, from birth to slaughter. Individual electronic identification presents high importance in this focus, providing information recorded directly from the animal. Electronic traceability uses electronic devices that emit a signal activated by a fixed reader placed where it is needed to record a certain event, or uses a manual reader which allows a higher independence of the operator. Knowing the importance of the electronic identification as a tool for applying traceability in animal production, this research had as objective to evaluate the use of transponders in order to garantee the manual reading as well as the fixed antenna reading. The following implant places were analized in piglet, just after their birth: 1) forehead, 2) external ear lobule, 3) the posterior auricular base, and 4) a transponder inserted in a earing implanted in the ear lobule. The factors of skin damage and migration were analized, as well as the reading efficiency. It was found that the best implant place was the posterior ear base.

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This article analyzes food insecurity and hunger in Brazilian families with children under five years of age. This was a nationally representative cross-sectional study using data from the National Demographic and Health Survey on Women and Children (PNDS-2006), in which the outcome variable was moderate to severe food insecurity, measured by the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale (EBIA). Prevalence estimates and prevalence ratios were generated with 95% confidence intervals. The results showed a high prevalence of moderate to severe food insecurity, concentrated in the North and Northeast regions (30.7%), in economic classes D and E (34%), and in beneficiaries of conditional cash transfer programs (36.5%). Multivariate analysis showed that the socioeconomic relative risks (beneficiaries of conditional cash transfers), regional relative risks (North and Northeast regions), and economic relative risks (classes D and E) were 1.8, 2.0 and 2.4, respectively. Aggregation of the three risks showed 48% of families with moderate to severe food insecurity, meaning that adults and children were going hungry during the three months preceding the survey.

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This paper studies complex sentences with temporal hypotatic clauses and with conditional hypotatic clauses in order to investigate the degree of grammaticalization shown by these two kinds of utterances. Our hypothesis is that the more the hypotatic clause is integrated to the nuclear clause, the greater is the degree of grammaticalization. Such degree of integration was measured according to three groups of factors, and the results show that, regarding two of the variables evaluated, the conditional clauses are the most integrated to their nucleus, but, in another rank of evaluation, the temporal clauses are the most integrated ones. Considering that this study is based on a functionalist view, the results may be interpreted according to the principle that there is a competition of motivations in the use of language, so that each utterance reflects the balance of such forces.

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física