Modeling the forensic two-trace problem with Bayesian networks

The forensic two-trace problem is a perplexing inference problem introduced by Evett (J Forensic Sci Soc 27:375-381, 1987). Different possible ways of wording the competing pair of propositions (i.e., one proposition advanced by the prosecution and one proposition advanced by the defence) led to different quantifications of the value of the evidence (Meester and Sjerps in Biometrics 59:727-732, 2003). Here, we re-examine this scenario with the aim of clarifying the interrelationships that exist between the different solutions, and in this way, produce a global vision of the problem. We propose to investigate the different expressions for evaluating the value of the evidence by using a graphical approach, i.e. Bayesian networks, to model the rationale behind each of the proposed solutions and the assumptions made on the unknown parameters in this problem.

Improving Transition Outcomes: Henry County Transition Partners: Infrastructure Building Replication Template

Replication Template for Improving Transition Outcomes Henry County Transition Partners Prototype. This concise document will help you build a community team and the infrastructure necessary to implement and plan for sustaining specific initiatives.

Improving Transition Outcomes: Capacity Building Forum: Dissemination of Promising Transition Practices

Information on the Promising Transition Practices shared at the September 28, 2007 Capacity Building Forum sponsored by Improving Transition Outcomes with Iowa Vocational Rehabilitation Services.

Audit of Academic Building Revenue Bond Funds of Iowa State University of Science and Technology (Iowa State University) as of and for the year ended June 30, 2007

Audit of Academic Building Revenue Bond Funds of Iowa State University of Science and Technology (Iowa State University) as of and for the year ended June 30, 2007

Iowa Budget Report, Building on our Progress: Protecting our Priorities, 2009

*********** Some files are large and will take time to load. *********** Seven Files: 1)Report Cover, 2)Table of Contents, 3)Statewide Financial Summaries, 4)Department Budgets, 5)Capitol Projects, 6)Associated Financial Documents, 7)Budget Report. To Members of the 82nd General Assembly, As we begin the second year of our Administration, we are pleased to submit the Fiscal Year 2009 budget for the State of Iowa pursuant to Iowa Code Section 8.21 and our constitutional authority. This budget recognizes the progress that we began last year with improvements in education, economic development, energy independence, and health care; provides funding for new policy initiatives in these areas; and is based on fiscally sound budget practices. Building on last year’s accomplishments, our Fiscal Year 2009 General Fund budget proposes an additional $75 million for increasing teachers’ salaries as part of our goal to move Iowa closer to the national average. We lay the foundation for student achievement by recommending $32.1 million for pre-school education, and we also propose $177.5 million in total for community colleges and $726.2 million in total for Regents universities. To make our State more energy independent, our General Fund budget appropriates the second-year funding of $25 million for the new Iowa Power Fund. The newly established Office of Energy Independence will soon start making awards from the Power Fund. Apart from the budget, we will be making several proposals to implement the new State energy plan. We have pledged to expand the number of Iowans who have health-care coverage. As a result, we are recommending additional funding for enrollment growth in the State Children Health Insurance Program (SCHIP). These additional funds will help the State provide coverage for another 25 percent of children who are eligible but not yet enrolled in hawk-i and the Iowa Medicaid Program. To protect the safety of Iowans, we are recommending issuance of revenue bonds for approximately $260 million in net proceeds to build a new state penitentiary in Ft. Madison, renovate and expand the Women’s Correctional Institution at Mitchellville, upgrade kitchen facilities at the Rockwell City and Mt. Pleasant Correctional Institutions, and expand Community-Based Correctional Facilities in Ottumwa, Sioux City, Waterloo, and Des Moines. Additionally, we are including funding for developing a prototype program for providing parolees and low-risk offenders with mental health and drug abuse treatment and educational services to help them make a crime-free re-entry into our communities. As part of this Capitals Budget, we also propose using $20 million for the State’s matching share for building new facilities at the Iowa Veterans Home. Iowa Budget Report iv Fiscal Year 2009 Importantly, our budget continues to fully fund our State’s Reserve Funds to help buffer Iowa from any future economic downturn. We recommend reimbursing $78.2 million to the Property Tax Credit Fund as part of our multi-year proposal to correct bad budgeting practices and eventually restore $160.0 million to this Fund. To provide more transparency, we are transferring operational expenditures in the Rebuild Iowa Infrastructure Fund to the General Fund and expenditures from the Endowment for Healthy Iowans and Healthy Iowans Tobacco Trust Funds to the General Fund. We believe that Iowa has charted a new course of becoming energy independent, providing quality pre-school education, recognizing the importance of our teachers, and providing greater health coverage for children. Our Fiscal Year 2009 budget and policy priorities reflect our continuing faith in Iowa’s ability to be the best state in the nation. We look forward to working with you in a bi-partisan and all-inclusive manner to build on our progress and protect our priorities. Sincerely, Chester J. Culver Governor Patty Judge Lt. Governor

Further insights on the French WISC-IV factor structure through Bayesian structural equation modeling

The interpretation of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition (WISC-IV) is based on a 4-factor model, which is only partially compatible with the mainstream Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) model of intelligence measurement. The structure of cognitive batteries is frequently analyzed via exploratory factor analysis and/or confirmatory factor analysis. With classical confirmatory factor analysis, almost all crossloadings between latent variables and measures are fixed to zero in order to allow the model to be identified. However, inappropriate zero cross-loadings can contribute to poor model fit, distorted factors, and biased factor correlations; most important, they do not necessarily faithfully reflect theory. To deal with these methodological and theoretical limitations, we used a new statistical approach, Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM), among a sample of 249 French-speaking Swiss children (8-12 years). With BSEM, zero-fixed cross-loadings between latent variables and measures are replaced by approximate zeros, based on informative, small-variance priors. Results indicated that a direct hierarchical CHC-based model with 5 factors plus a general intelligence factor better represented the structure of the WISC-IV than did the 4-factor structure and the higher order models. Because a direct hierarchical CHC model was more adequate, it was concluded that the general factor should be considered as a breadth rather than a superordinate factor. Because it was possible for us to estimate the influence of each of the latent variables on the 15 subtest scores, BSEM allowed improvement of the understanding of the structure of intelligence tests and the clinical interpretation of the subtest scores.

Groundwater Availability Modeling: Lower Dakota Aquifer, 2008

This monthly report from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources is about the water quality management of Iowa's rivers, streams and lakes.

Molecular modeling study of the binding and signaling properties of the TCRpMHC complex

The activation of the specific immune response against tumor cells is based on the recognition by the CD8+ Cytotoxic Τ Lymphocytes (CTL), of antigenic peptides (p) presented at the surface of the cell by the class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC). The ability of the so-called T-Cell Receptors (TCR) to discriminate between self and non-self peptides constitutes the most important specific control mechanism against infected cells. The TCR/pMHC interaction has been the subject of much attention in cancer therapy since the design of the adoptive transfer approach, in which Τ lymphocytes presenting an interesting response against tumor cells are extracted from the patient, expanded in vitro, and reinfused after immunodepletion, possibly leading to cancer regression. In the last decade, major progress has been achieved by the introduction of engineered lypmhocytes. In the meantime, the understanding of the molecular aspects of the TCRpMHC interaction has become essential to guide in vitro and in vivo studies. In 1996, the determination of the first structure of a TCRpMHC complex by X-ray crystallography revealed the molecular basis of the interaction. Since then, molecular modeling techniques have taken advantage of crystal structures to study the conformational space of the complex, and understand the specificity of the recognition of the pMHC by the TCR. In the meantime, experimental techniques used to determine the sequences of TCR that bind to a pMHC complex have been used intensively, leading to the collection of large repertoires of TCR sequences that are specific for a given pMHC. There is a growing need for computational approaches capable of predicting the molecular interactions that occur upon TCR/pMHC binding without relying on the time consuming resolution of a crystal structure. This work presents new approaches to analyze the molecular principles that govern the recognition of the pMHC by the TCR and the subsequent activation of the T-cell. We first introduce TCRep 3D, a new method to model and study the structural properties of TCR repertoires, based on homology and ab initio modeling. We discuss the methodology in details, and demonstrate that it outperforms state of the art modeling methods in predicting relevant TCR conformations. Two successful applications of TCRep 3D that supported experimental studies on TCR repertoires are presented. Second, we present a rigid body study of TCRpMHC complexes that gives a fair insight on the TCR approach towards pMHC. We show that the binding mode of the TCR is correctly described by long-distance interactions. Finally, the last section is dedicated to a detailed analysis of an experimental hydrogen exchange study, which suggests that some regions of the constant domain of the TCR are subject to conformational changes upon binding to the pMHC. We propose a hypothesis of the structural signaling of TCR molecules leading to the activation of the T-cell. It is based on the analysis of correlated motions in the TCRpMHC structure. - L'activation de la réponse immunitaire spécifique dirigée contre les cellules tumorales est basée sur la reconnaissance par les Lymphocytes Τ Cytotoxiques (CTL), d'un peptide antigénique (p) présenté à la suface de la cellule par le complexe majeur d'histocompatibilité de classe I (MHC). La capacité des récepteurs des lymphocytes (TCR) à distinguer les peptides endogènes des peptides étrangers constitue le mécanisme de contrôle le plus important dirigé contre les cellules infectées. L'interaction entre le TCR et le pMHC est le sujet de beaucoup d'attention dans la thérapie du cancer, depuis la conception de la méthode de transfer adoptif: les lymphocytes capables d'une réponse importante contre les cellules tumorales sont extraits du patient, amplifiés in vitro, et réintroduits après immunosuppression. Il peut en résulter une régression du cancer. Ces dix dernières années, d'importants progrès ont été réalisés grâce à l'introduction de lymphocytes modifiés par génie génétique. En parallèle, la compréhension du TCRpMHC au niveau moléculaire est donc devenue essentielle pour soutenir les études in vitro et in vivo. En 1996, l'obtention de la première structure du complexe TCRpMHC à l'aide de la cristallographie par rayons X a révélé les bases moléculaires de l'interaction. Depuis lors, les techniques de modélisation moléculaire ont exploité les structures expérimentales pour comprendre la spécificité de la reconnaissance du pMHC par le TCR. Dans le même temps, de nouvelles techniques expérimentales permettant de déterminer la séquence de TCR spécifiques envers un pMHC donné, ont été largement exploitées. Ainsi, d'importants répertoires de TCR sont devenus disponibles, et il est plus que jamais nécessaire de développer des approches informatiques capables de prédire les interactions moléculaires qui ont lieu lors de la liaison du TCR au pMHC, et ce sans dépendre systématiquement de la résolution d'une structure cristalline. Ce mémoire présente une nouvelle approche pour analyser les principes moléculaires régissant la reconnaissance du pMHC par le TCR, et l'activation du lymphocyte qui en résulte. Dans un premier temps, nous présentons TCRep 3D, une nouvelle méthode basée sur les modélisations par homologie et ab initio, pour l'étude de propriétés structurales des répertoires de TCR. Le procédé est discuté en détails et comparé à des approches standard. Nous démontrons ainsi que TCRep 3D est le plus performant pour prédire des conformations pertinentes du TCR. Deux applications à des études expérimentales des répertoires TCR sont ensuite présentées. Dans la seconde partie de ce travail nous présentons une étude de complexes TCRpMHC qui donne un aperçu intéressant du mécanisme d'approche du pMHC par le TCR. Finalement, la dernière section se concentre sur l'analyse détaillée d'une étude expérimentale basée sur les échanges deuterium/hydrogène, dont les résultats révèlent que certaines régions clés du domaine constant du TCR sont sujettes à un changement conformationnel lors de la liaison au pMHC. Nous proposons une hypothèse pour la signalisation structurelle des TCR, menant à l'activation du lymphocyte. Celle-ci est basée sur l'analyse des mouvements corrélés observés dans la structure du TCRpMHC.

How political parties, rather than member-states, are building the European Union

Political party formation and coalition building in the European Parliament is being a driving force for making governance of the highly pluralistic European Union relatively effective and consensual. In spite of successive enlargements and the very high number of electoral partiesobtaining representation in the European Union institutions, the number of effective European Political Groups in the European Parliament has decreased from the first direct election in 1979 to the fifth in 1999. The formal analysis of national party¹s voting power in different Europeanparty configurations can explain the incentives for national parties to join large European Political Groups instead of forming smaller nationalistic groupings. Empirical evidence shows increasing cohesion of European Political Groups and an increasing role of the European Parliament in EU inter-institutional decision making. As a consequence of this evolution, intergovernmentalism is being replaced with federalizing relations. The analysis can support positive expectations regarding the governability of the European Union after further enlargements provided that new member states have party systems fitting the European PoliticalGroups.

On the relevance of modeling volatility for pricing purposes

This paper presents a two-factor (Vasicek-CIR) model of the term structure of interest rates and develops its pricing and empirical properties. We assume that default free discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long-term interest rate and the spread. Assuming a certain process for both factors, a general bond pricing equation is derived and a closed-form expression for bond prices is obtained. Empirical evidence of the model's performance in comparisson with a double Vasicek model is presented. The main conclusion is that the modeling of the volatility in the long-term rate process can help (in a large amount) to fit the observed data can improve - in a reasonable quantity - the prediction of the future movements in the medium- and long-term interest rates. However, for shorter maturities, it is shown that the pricing errors are, basically, negligible and it is not so clear which is the best model to be used.

Building an honest microfinance organization: Embezzlement and the optimality of rigid repayment schedules and joint liability

We consider the agency problem of a staff member managing microfinancing programs, who can abuse his discretion to embezzle borrowers' repayments. The fact that most borrowers of microfinancing programs are illiterate and live in rural areas where transportation costs are very high make staff's embezzlement particularly relevant as is documented by Mknelly and Kevane (2002). We study the trade-off between the optimal rigid lending contract and the optimal discretionary one and find that a rigid contract is optimal when the audit cost is larger than gains from insurance. Our analysis explains rigid repayment schedules used by the Grameen bank as an optimal response to the bank staff's agency problem. Joint liability reduces borrowers' burden of respecting the rigid repayment schedules by providing them with partial insurance. However, the same insurance can be provided byborrowers themselves under individual liability through a side-contract.

A new cluster-brood building species of Plebeia (Hymenoptera, Apidae) from eastern Brazil

A new species of Plebeia, the second largest genus of stingless bees in the Neotropical region, is described from eastern Brazil. Plebeia grapiuna sp. nov., known only from the lowland forests of southern Bahia, is most similar to P. lucii Moure, a species recently described from Minas Gerais. The lack of yellow marks and the smoother integument of the frons and mesoscutum in P. grapiuna sp. nov. distinguish them. Main features of the nesting habits of the new species are described and illustrated.