EPA guidance on the early detection of clinical high risk states of psychoses

The aim of this guidance paper of the European Psychiatric Association is to provide evidence-based recommendations on the early detection of a clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis in patients with mental problems. To this aim, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies reporting on conversion rates to psychosis in non-overlapping samples meeting any at least any one of the main CHR criteria: ultra-high risk (UHR) and/or basic symptoms criteria. Further, effects of potential moderators (different UHR criteria definitions, single UHR criteria and age) on conversion rates were examined. Conversion rates in the identified 42 samples with altogether more than 4000 CHR patients who had mainly been identified by UHR criteria and/or the basic symptom criterion ‘cognitive disturbances’ (COGDIS) showed considerable heterogeneity. While UHR criteria and COGDIS were related to similar conversion rates until 2-year follow-up, conversion rates of COGDIS were significantly higher thereafter. Differences in onset and frequency requirements of symptomatic UHR criteria or in their different consideration of functional decline, substance use and co-morbidity did not seem to impact on conversion rates. The ‘genetic risk and functional decline’ UHR criterion was rarely met and only showed an insignificant pooled sample effect. However, age significantly affected UHR conversion rates with lower rates in children and adolescents. Although more research into potential sources of heterogeneity in conversion rates is needed to facilitate improvement of CHR criteria, six evidence-based recommendations for an early detection of psychosis were developed as a basis for the EPA guidance on early intervention in CHR states.

Vertebral artery stenosis in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS): prevalence and outcome

We assessed the prevalence of vertebral artery (VA) stenosis or occlusion and its influence on outcome in patients with acute basilar artery occlusion (BAO). We studied 141 patients with acute BAO enrolled in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS) registry of whom baseline CT angiography (CTA) of the intracranial VAs was available. In 72 patients an additional CTA of the extracranial VAs was available. Adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) for death and poor outcome, defined as a modified Rankin Scale score ≥4, were calculated with Poisson regression in relation to VA occlusion, VA occlusion or stenosis ≥50 %, and bilateral VA occlusion. Sixty-six of 141 (47 %) patients had uni- or bilateral intracranial VA occlusion or stenosis ≥50 %. Of the 72 patients with intra- and extracranial CTA, 46 (64 %) had uni- or bilateral VA occlusion or stenosis ≥50 % and 9 (12 %) had bilateral VA occlusion. Overall, VA occlusion or stenosis ≥50 % was not associated with the risk of poor outcome. Patients with intra- and extracranial CTA and bilateral VA occlusion had a higher risk of poor outcome than patients without bilateral VA occlusion (aRR, 1.23; 95 % CI 1.02-1.50). The risk of death did not depend on the presence of unilateral or bilateral VA occlusion or stenosis ≥50 %. In conclusion, in patients with acute BAO, unilateral VA occlusion or stenosis ≥50 % is frequent, but not associated with an increased risk of poor outcome or death. Patients with BAO and bilateral VA occlusion have a slightly increased risk of poor outcome.

Fast adaptive responses in the oral jaw of Lake Victoria cichlids

Rapid morphological changes in response to fluctuating natural environments are a common phenomenon in species that undergo adaptive radiation. The dramatic ecological changes in Lake Victoria provide a unique opportunity to study environmental effects on cichlid morphology. This study shows how four haplochromine cichlids adapted their premaxilla to a changed diet over the past 30 years. Directly after the diet change toward larger and faster prey in the late 1980s, the premaxilla (upper jaw) changed in a way that is in agreement with a more food manipulating feeding style. During the 2000s, two zooplanktivorous species showed a reversal of morphological changes after returning to their original diet, whereas two other species showed no reversal of diet and morphology. These rapid changes indicate a potential for extremely fast adaptive responses to environmental fluctuations, which are likely inflicted by competition release and increase, and might have a bearing on the ability of haplochromines to cope with environmental changes. These responses could be due to rapid genetic change or phenotypic plasticity, for which there is ample evidence in cichlid fish structures associated with food capture and processing. These versatile adaptive responses are likely to have contributed to the fast adaptive radiation of haplochromines.

A coding variant in RARG confers susceptibility to anthracycline-induced cardiotoxicity in childhood cancer

Anthracyclines are used in over 50% of childhood cancer treatment protocols, but their clinical usefulness is limited by anthracycline-induced cardiotoxicity (ACT) manifesting as asymptomatic cardiac dysfunction and congestive heart failure in up to 57% and 16% of patients, respectively. Candidate gene studies have reported genetic associations with ACT, but these studies have in general lacked robust patient numbers, independent replication or functional validation. Thus, the individual variability in ACT susceptibility remains largely unexplained. We performed a genome-wide association study in 280 patients of European ancestry treated for childhood cancer, with independent replication in similarly treated cohorts of 96 European and 80 non-European patients. We identified a nonsynonymous variant (rs2229774, p.Ser427Leu) in RARG highly associated with ACT (P = 5.9 × 10(-8), odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 4.7 (2.7-8.3)). This variant alters RARG function, leading to derepression of the key ACT genetic determinant Top2b, and provides new insight into the pathophysiology of this severe adverse drug reaction.

Estimation and calibration of the water isotope differential diffusion length in ice core records

Palaeoclimatic information can be retrieved from the diffusion of the stable water isotope signal during firnification of snow. The diffusion length, a measure for the amount of diffusion a layer has experienced, depends on the firn temperature and the accumulation rate. We show that the estimation of the diffusion length using power spectral densities (PSDs) of the record of a single isotope species can be biased by uncertainties in spectral properties of the isotope signal prior to diffusion. By using a second water isotope and calculating the difference in diffusion lengths between the two isotopes, this problem is circumvented. We study the PSD method applied to two isotopes in detail and additionally present a new forward diffusion method for retrieving the differential diffusion length based on the Pearson correlation between the two isotope signals. The two methods are discussed and extensively tested on synthetic data which are generated in a Monte Carlo manner. We show that calibration of the PSD method with this synthetic data is necessary to be able to objectively determine the differential diffusion length. The correlation-based method proves to be a good alternative for the PSD method as it yields precision equal to or somewhat higher than the PSD method. The use of synthetic data also allows us to estimate the accuracy and precision of the two methods and to choose the best sampling strategy to obtain past temperatures with the required precision. In addition to application to synthetic data the two methods are tested on stable-isotope records from the EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) ice core drilled in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, showing that reliable firn temperatures can be reconstructed with a typical uncertainty of 1.5 and 2 °C for the Holocene period and 2 and 2.5 °C for the last glacial period for the correlation and PSD method, respectively.

Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes

It remains unclear whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against climate extremes, which are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide. Early results suggested that the ecosystem productivity of diverse grassland plant communities was more resistant, changing less during drought, and more resilient, recovering more quickly after drought, than that of depauperate communities. However, subsequent experimental tests produced mixed results. Here we use data from 46 experiments that manipulated grassland plant diversity to test whether biodiversity provides resistance during and resilience after climate events. We show that biodiversity increased ecosystem resistance for a broad range of climate events, including wet or dry, moderate or extreme, and brief or prolonged events. Across all studies and climate events, the productivity of low-diversity communities with one or two species changed by approximately 50% during climate events, whereas that of high-diversity communities with 16–32 species was more resistant, changing by only approximately 25%. By a year after each climate event, ecosystem productivity had often fully recovered, or overshot, normal levels of productivity in both high- and low-diversity communities, leading to no detectable dependence of ecosystem resilience on biodiversity. Our results suggest that biodiversity mainly stabilizes ecosystem productivity, and productivity-dependent ecosystem services, by increasing resistance to climate events. Anthropogenic environmental changes that drive biodiversity loss thus seem likely to decrease ecosystem stability, and restoration of biodiversity to increase it, mainly by changing the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate events.

Migration and population expansion of Abies, Fagus, Picea, and Quercus since 15000 years in and across the Alps, based on pollen-percentage threshold values

Aims: The aim of this study is to explore the migration (colonization of new areas) and subsequent population expansion (within an area) since 15 ka cal BP of Abies, Fagus, Picea, and Quercus into and through the Alps solely on the basis of high-quality pollen data. Methods: Chronologies of 101 pollen sequences are improved or created. Data from the area delimited by 45.5–48.1°N and 6–14°E are summarized in three ways: (1) in a selection of pollen-percentage threshold maps (thresholds 0.5%, 1%, 2%, 4%, 8%, 16%, and 32% of land pollen); (2) in graphic summaries of 250-year time slices and geographic segments (lengthwise and transverse in relation to the main axis of the Alps) as pollen-percentage curves, pollen-percentage difference curves, and pollen-percentage threshold ages cal BP graphed against both the length and the transverse Alpine axes; and (3) in tables showing statistical relationships of either pollen-percentage threshold ages cal BP or pollen expansion durations (=time lapse between different pollen-percentage threshold ages cal BP) with latitude, longitude, and elevation; to establish these relationships we used both simple linear regression and multiple linear regression after stepwise-forward selection. Results: The statistical results indicate that (a) the use of pollen-percentage thresholds between 0.5% and 8% yield mostly similar directions of tree migration, so the method is fairly robust, (b) Abies migrated northward, Fagus southward, Picea westward, and Quercus northward; more detail does not emerge due to an extreme scarcity of high-quality data especially along the southern foothills of the Alps and in the eastern Alps. This scarcity allows the reconstruction of one immigration route only of Abies into the southern Alps. The speed of population expansion (following arrival) of Abies increased and of Picea decreased during the Holocene, of Fagus it decreased especially during the later Holocene, and of Quercus it increased especially at the start of the Holocene.

Climate-pollen relationships AD 1901-1996 in two small mires near the forest limit in the northern and central Swiss Alps

Climatic relationships were established in two 210Pb dated pollen sequences from small mires closely surrounded by forest just below actual forest limits (but about 300 m below potential climatic forest limits) in the northern Swiss Alps (suboceanic in climate; mainly with Picea) and the central Swiss Alps (subcontinental; mainly Pinus cembra and Larix) at annual or near-annual resolution from ad 1901 to 1996. Effects of vegetational succession were removed by splitting the time series into early and late periods and by linear detrending. Both pollen concentrations detrended by the depth-age model and modified percentages (in which counts of dominant pollen types are down-weighted) are correlated by simple linear regression with smoothed climatic parameters with one-and two-year timelags, including average monthly and April/September daylight air temperatures and with seasonal and annual precipitation sums. Results from detrended pollen concentrations suggest that peat accumulation is favoured in the northern-Alpine mire either by early snowmelt or by summer precipitation, but in the central-Alpine mire by increased precipitation and cooler summers, suggesting a position of the northern-Alpine mire near the upper altitudinal limit of peat formation, but of the central-Alpine mire near the lower limit. Results from modified pollen percentages indicate that pollen pro duction by plants growing near their upper altitudinal limit is limited by insufficient warmth in summer, and pollen production by plants growing near their lower altitudinal limit is limited by too-high temperatures. Only weakly significant pollen/climate relationships were found for Pinus cembra and Larix, probably because they experience little climatic stress growing 300 m below the potential climatic forest limit.

Accumulation rates and predominant atmospheric sources of natural and anthropogenic Hg and Pb on the Faroe Islands

A monolith representing 5420 14C yr of peat accumulation was collected from a blanket bog at Myrarnar, Faroe Islands. The maximum Hg concentration (498 ng/g at a depth of 4.5 cm) coincides with the maximum concentration of anthropogenic Pb (111 μg/g). Age dating of recent peat accumulation using 210Pb (CRS model) shows that the maxima in Hg and Pb concentrations occur at AD 1954 ± 2. These results, combined with the isotopic composition of Pb in that sample (206Pb/207Pb = 1.1720 ± 0.0017), suggest that coal burning was the dominant source of both elements. From the onset of peat accumulation (ca. 4286 BC) until AD 1385, the ratios Hg/Br and Hg/Se were constant (2.2 ± 0.5 × 10-4 and 8.5 ± 1.8 × 10-3, respectively). Since then, Hg/Br and Hg/Se values have increased, also reaching their maxima in AD 1954. The age date of the maximum concentrations of anthropogenic Hg and Pb in the Faroe Islands is consistent with a previous study of peat cores from Greenland and Denmark (dated using the atmospheric bomb pulse curve of 14C), which showed maximum concentrations in AD 1953. The average rate of atmospheric Hg accumulation from 1520 BC to AD 1385 was 1.27 ± 0.38 μg/m2/yr. The Br and Se concentrations and the background Hg/Br and Hg/Se ratios were used to calculate the average rate of natural Hg accumulation for the same period, 1.32 ± 0.36 μg/m2/yr and 1.34 ± 0.29 μg/m2/yr, respectively. These fluxes are similar to the preanthropogenic rates obtained using peat cores from Switzerland, southern Greenland, southern Ontario, Canada, and the northeastern United States. Episodic volcanic emissions and the continual supply of marine aerosols to the Faroe Islands, therefore, have not contributed significantly to the Hg inventory or the Hg accumulation rates, relative to these other areas. The maximum rate of Hg accumulation was 34 μg/m2/yr. The greatest fluxes of anthropogenic Hg accumulation calculated using Br and Se, respectively, were 26 and 31 μg/m2/yr. The rate of atmospheric Hg accumulation in 1998 (16 μg/m2/yr) is comparable to the values recently obtained by atmospheric transport modeling for Denmark, the Faroe Islands, and Greenland.

Long-term man–environment interactions in the Bolivian Amazon: 8000 years of vegetation dynamics

Only few studies documenting the vegetation history of the Llanos de Moxos, one of the largest seasonally flooded wetland areas in South America, are available and little is known about the environmental impact of pre-Columbian settlements. We use radiocarbon-dated terrestrial plant macrofossils to establish a sound chronology and palynological analyses to reconstruct the vegetation and fire history of the Lago Rogaguado area. The sedimentary pollen and spore record suggests that wetland and wooded savannah (Cerrado) environments occurred around the lake between 8100 and 5800 cal BP. Fire activity was high during this period and was probably connected to the dry Cerrado environments. The pollen evidence suggests early plant cultivation (Zea mays, Annonaceae and Cucurbitaceae) from 6500 cal BP onwards, which is significantly earlier than hitherto assumed for Amazonia. Gallery forests expanded after 5800 cal BP, when fire activity strongly declined. Forest expansion intensified around 2800 cal BP and continued until 2000 cal BP, when forest cover reached its maximum and fire activity its minimum. The late-Holocene forest expansion to the south and the decrease of fire activity may have resulted from a climatic shift to moister conditions (possibly a shorter dry season). New crops (e.g. Avena-type) or adventive plants (e.g. Rumex acetosella-type) document the impact of European economies after ca. 500 cal BP. Land use intensity remained rather stable over the most recent centuries, arguing against a collapse of settlements in response to the arrival of Europeans, as reconstructed from other Amazonian pollen records.

Efficient luminescent solar concentrators based on self-absorption free, Tm2+ doped halides

The optical and luminescence properties of CaI2 and NaCl doped with divalent thulium are reported for solar energy applications. These halides strongly absorb solar light from the UV up to 900 nm due to the intense Tm2+ 4f13→4f125d1 electronic transitions. Absorption is followed by emission of 1140 nm light due to the 2F5/2→2F7/2 transition of the 4f13 configuration that can be efficiently converted to electric power by thin film CuInSe2 (CIS) solar cells. Because of a negligible spectral overlap between absorption and emission spectra, a luminescent solar concentrator (LSC) based on these black luminescent materials would not suffer from self-absorption losses. The Tm2+ doped halides may therefore lead to efficient semi-transparent power generating windows that absorb solar light over the whole visible spectrum. It will be shown that the power efficiency of the Tm2+ based LSCs can be up to four times higher compared to LSCs based on organic dyes or quantum dots.

The elusive S2 state, the S1/S2 splitting, and the excimer states of the benzene dimer

We observe the weak S 0 → S 2 transitions of the T-shaped benzene dimers (Bz)2 and (Bz-d 6)2 about 250 cm−1 and 220 cm−1 above their respective S 0 → S 1 electronic origins using two-color resonant two-photon ionization spectroscopy. Spin-component scaled (SCS) second-order approximate coupled-cluster (CC2) calculations predict that for the tipped T-shaped geometry, the S 0 → S 2 electronic oscillator strength f el (S 2) is ∼10 times smaller than f el (S 1) and the S 2 state lies ∼240 cm−1 above S 1, in excellent agreement with experiment. The S 0 → S 1 (ππ ∗) transition is mainly localized on the “stem” benzene, with a minor stem → cap charge-transfer contribution; the S 0 → S 2 transition is mainly localized on the “cap” benzene. The orbitals, electronic oscillator strengths f el (S 1) and f el (S 2), and transition frequencies depend strongly on the tipping angle ω between the two Bz moieties. The SCS-CC2 calculated S 1 and S 2 excitation energies at different T-shaped, stacked-parallel and parallel-displaced stationary points of the (Bz)2 ground-state surface allow to construct approximate S 1 and S 2 potential energy surfaces and reveal their relation to the “excimer” states at the stacked-parallel geometry. The f el (S 1) and f el (S 2) transition dipole moments at the C 2v -symmetric T-shape, parallel-displaced and stacked-parallel geometries are either zero or ∼10 times smaller than at the tipped T-shaped geometry. This unusual property of the S 0 → S 1 and S 0 → S 2 transition-dipole moment surfaces of (Bz)2 restricts its observation by electronic spectroscopy to the tipped and tilted T-shaped geometries; the other ground-state geometries are impossible or extremely difficult to observe. The S 0 → S 1/S 2 spectra of (Bz)2 are compared to those of imidazole ⋅ (Bz)2, which has a rigid triangular structure with a tilted (Bz)2 subunit. The S 0 → S 1/ S 2 transitions of imidazole-(benzene)2 lie at similar energies as those of (Bz)2, confirming our assignment of the (Bz)2 S 0 → S 2 transition.

Spatial genomic heterogeneity within localized, multifocal prostate cancer

Herein we provide a detailed molecular analysis of the spatial heterogeneity of clinically localized, multifocal prostate cancer to delineate new oncogenes or tumor suppressors. We initially determined the copy number aberration (CNA) profiles of 74 patients with index tumors of Gleason score 7. Of these, 5 patients were subjected to whole-genome sequencing using DNA quantities achievable in diagnostic biopsies, with detailed spatial sampling of 23 distinct tumor regions to assess intraprostatic heterogeneity in focal genomics. Multifocal tumors are highly heterogeneous for single-nucleotide variants (SNVs), CNAs and genomic rearrangements. We identified and validated a new recurrent amplification of MYCL, which is associated with TP53 deletion and unique profiles of DNA damage and transcriptional dysregulation. Moreover, we demonstrate divergent tumor evolution in multifocal cancer and, in some cases, tumors of independent clonal origin. These data represent the first systematic relation of intraprostatic genomic heterogeneity to predicted clinical outcome and inform the development of novel biomarkers that reflect individual prognosis.

Seven years of annual pollen influx at the forest limit in the Swiss Alps studied by pollen traps: relations to vegetation and climate

Annual pollen influx has been monitored in short transects across the altitudinal tree limit in four areas of the Swiss Alps with the use of modified Tauber traps placed at the ground surface. The study areas are Grindelwald (8 traps), Aletsch (8 traps), Simplon (5 traps), and Zermatt (5 traps). The vegetation around the traps is described. The results obtained are: (1) Peak years of pollen influx (one or two in seven years) follow years of high average air temperatures during June–November of the previous year for Larix and Picea, and less clearly for Pinus non-cembra, but not at all for Pinus cembra and Alnus viridis. (2) At the upper forest limit, the regional pollen influx of trees (trees absent within 100 m of the pollen trap) relates well to the average basal area of the same taxon within 10–15 km of the study areas for Pinus cembra, Larix, and Betula, but not for Picea, Pinus non-cembra, and Alnus viridis. (3) The example of Zermatt shows that pollen influx characterises the upper forest limit, if the latter is more or less intact. (4) Presence/absence of Picea, Pinus cembra, Larix, Pinus non-cembra, and Alnus viridis trees within 50–100 m of the traps is apparent in the pollen influx in peak years of pollen influx but not in other years, suggesting that forest-limit trees produce significant amounts of pollen only in some years. (5) Pollen influx averaged over the study period correlates well with the abundance of plants around the pollen traps for conifer trees (but not deciduous trees), Calluna, Gramineae, and Cyperaceae, and less clearly so Compositae Subfam. Cichorioideae and Potentilla-type. (6) Influx of extra-regional pollen derived from south of the Alps is highest in Simplon, which is open to southerly winds, slightly lower in Aletsch lying just north of Simplon, and lowest in Zermatt sheltered from the south by high mountains and Grindelwald lying north of the central Alps.

Palynostratigraphy of the last centuries in Switzerland based on 23 lake and mire deposits: chronostratigraphic pollen markers, regional patterns, and local histories

A total of 23 pollen diagrams [stored in the Alpine Palynological Data-Base (ALPADABA), Geobotanical Institute, Bern] cover the last 100 to over 1000 years. The sites include 15 lakes, seven mires, and one soil profile distributed in the Jura Mts (three sites), Swiss Plateau (two sites), northern Pre-Alps and Alps (six sites), central Alps (five sites), southern Alps (three sites), and southern Pre-Alps (four sites) in the western and southern part of Switzerland or just outside the national borders. The pollen diagrams have both a high taxonomic resolution and a high temporal resolution, with sampling distances of 0.5–3 cm, equivalent to 1 to 11 years for the last 100 years and 8 to 130 years for earlier periods. The chronology is based on absolute dating (14 sites: 210Pb 11 sites; 14C six sites; varve counting two sites) or on biostratigraphic correlation among pollen diagrams. The latter relies mainly on trends in Cannabis sativa, Ambrosia, Mercurialis annua, and Ostrya-type pollen. Individual pollen stratigraphies are discussed and sites are compared within each region. The principle of designating local, extra-local, and regional pollen signals and vegetation is exemplified by two pairs of sites lying close together. Trends in biostratigraphies shared by a major part of the pollen diagrams allow the following generalisations. Forest declined in phases since medieval times up to the late 19th century. Abies and Fagus declined consistently, whereas the behaviour of short-lived trees and trees of moist habitats differed among sites (Alnus glutinosa-type, Alnus viridis, Betula, Corylus avellana). In the present century, however, Picea and Pinus increased, followed by Fraxinus excelsior in the second half of this century. Grassland (traced by Gramineae and Plantago lanceolata-type pollen) increased, replacing much of the forest, and declined again in the second half of this century. Nitrate enrichment of the vegetation (traced by Urtica) took place in the first half of this century. These trends reflect the intensification of forest use and the expansion of grassland from medieval times up to the end of the last century, whereas subsequently parts of the grassland became used more intensively and the marginal parts were abandoned for forest regrowth. In most pollen diagrams human impact is the dominant factor in explaining inferred changes in vegetation, but climatic change plays a role at three sites.