983 resultados para WEIGHTED POISSON DISTRIBUTION AND CONWAY-MAXWELL POISSON DISTRIBUTION


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Objective Analyzing the geographical distribution of the tuberculosis (TB), its incidence and prevalence and TB-HIV coinfection in the districts of Porto Alegre from 2007 to 2011. Method An ecological, descriptive study of time series that used descriptive and geoprocessing techniques. Results In total, were recorded 3,369 incident cases and 3,998 prevalent cases of pulmonary TB. In both contexts, there was predominance of cases in males and in Caucasians. Seventeen districts showed prevalence rates above 79.2 cases/100,000 inhabitants, considering that 15 of them had incidence rates above 73.7 cases/100,000 inhabitants. The TB-HIV coinfection rates reached 67% in some districts, which is above the city average value (30%). Conclusion The distribution analysis showed that the reformulation and restructuring of policies and health services in Porto Alegre are essential.


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This corrects the article on p. e73445 in vol. 8.]. This corrects the article "Topographical Body Fat Distribution Links to Amino Acid and Lipid Metabolism in Healthy Non-Obese Women" , e73445. There was an error in the title of the article. The correct version of the title in the article is: Topographical Body Fat Distribution Links to Amino Acid and Lipid Metabolism in Healthy Obese Women The correct citation is: Martin F-PJ, Montoliu I, Collino S, Scherer M, Guy P, et al. (2013) Topographical Body Fat Distribution Links to Amino Acid and Lipid Metabolism in Healthy Obese Women. PLoS ONE 8(9): e73445. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0073445

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To evaluate the risk of transmission of vector-borne diseases, regular updates of the geographic distribution of insect vectors are required. In the archipelago of Cape Verde, nine mosquito species have been reported. Of these, four are major vectors of diseases that have been present in the archipelago: yellow fever, lymphatic filariasis, malaria and, currently, an outbreak of dengue. In order to assess variation in mosquito biodiversity, we have carried out an update on the distribution of the mosquito species in Cape Verde, based on an enquiry of 26 unpublished technical reports (1983-2006) and on the results of an entomological survey carried out in 2007. Overall, there seems to be a general trend for an expansion of biological diversity in the islands. Mosquito species richness was negatively correlated with the distance of the islands from the mainland but not with the size of the islands. Human- and/or sporadic climatic-mediated events of dispersal may have contributed to a homogenization of species richness regardless of island size but other ecological factors may also have affected the mosquito biogeography in the archipelago. An additional species, Culex perexiguus, was collected for the first time in the archipelago during the 2007 survey.

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1 Insect pests, biological invasions and climate change are considered to representmajor threats to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, agriculture and forestry.Deriving hypothesis of contemporary and/or future potential distributions of insectpests and invasive species is becoming an important tool for predicting the spatialstructure of potential threats.2 The western corn rootworm (WCR) Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte is apest of maize in North America that has invaded Europe in recent years, resultingin economic costs in terms of maize yields in both continents. The present studyaimed to estimate the dynamics of potential areas of invasion by the WCR under aclimate change scenario in the Northern Hemisphere. The areas at risk under thisscenario were assessed by comparing, using complementary approaches, the spatialprojections of current and future areas of climatic favourability of the WCR. Spatialhypothesis were generated with respect to the presence records in the native rangeof the WCR and physiological thresholds from previous empirical studies.3 We used a previously developed protocol specifically designed to estimatethe climatic favourability of the WCR. We selected the most biologicallyrelevant climatic predictors and then used multidimensional envelope (MDE) andMahalanobis distances (MD) approaches to derive potential distributions for currentand future climatic conditions.4 The results obtained showed a northward advancement of the upper physiologicallimit as a result of climate change, which might increase the strength of outbreaksat higher latitudes. In addition, both MDE and MD outputs predict the stability ofclimatic favourability for the WCR in the core of the already invaded area in Europe,which suggests that this zone would continue to experience damage from this pestin Europe.

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We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

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To ensure efficient energy supply to the high demanding brain, nutrients are transported into brain cells via specific glucose (GLUT) and monocarboxylate transporters (MCT). Mitochondrial dysfunction and altered glucose metabolism are thought to play an important role in the progression of neurodegenerative diseases, including multiple sclerosis (MS). Here, we investigated the cellular localization of key GLUT and MCT proteins in human brain tissue of non-neurological controls and MS patients. We show that in control brain tissue GLUT and MCT proteins were abundantly expressed in a variety of central nervous system cells, particularly in microglia and endothelial cells. In active MS lesions, GLUTs and MCTs were highly expressed in infiltrating leukocytes and reactive astrocytes. Astrocytes manifest increased MCT1 staining and maintain GLUT expression in inactive lesions, whereas demyelinated axons exhibit significantly reduced GLUT3 and MCT2 immunoreactivity in inactive lesions. Finally, we demonstrated that the co-transcription factor peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma co-activator 1-alpha (PGC-1α), an important protein involved in energy metabolism, is highly expressed in reactive astrocytes in active MS lesions. Overexpression of PGC-1α in astrocyte-like cells resulted in increased production of several GLUT and MCT proteins. In conclusion, we provide for the first time a comprehensive overview of key nutrient transporters in white matter brain samples. Moreover, our data demonstrate an altered expression of these nutrient transporters in MS brain tissue, including a marked reduction of axonal GLUT3 and MCT2 expression in chronic lesions, which may impede efficient nutrient supply to the hypoxic demyelinated axons thereby contributing to the ongoing neurodegeneration in MS. GLIA 2014;62:1125-1141.

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OBJECTIVE: High rates of suicide have been described in HIV-infected patients, but it is unclear to what extent the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has affected suicide rates. The authors examined time trends and predictors of suicide in the pre-HAART (1988-1995) and HAART (1996-2008) eras in HIV-infected patients and the general population in Switzerland. METHOD: The authors analyzed data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and the Swiss National Cohort, a longitudinal study of mortality in the Swiss general population. The authors calculated standardized mortality ratios comparing HIV-infected patients with the general population and used Poisson regression to identify risk factors for suicide. RESULTS: From 1988 to 2008, 15,275 patients were followed in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study for a median duration of 4.7 years. Of these, 150 died by suicide (rate 158.4 per 100,000 person-years). In men, standardized mortality ratios declined from 13.7 (95% CI=11.0-17.0) in the pre-HAART era to 3.5 (95% CI=2.5-4.8) in the late HAART era. In women, ratios declined from 11.6 (95% CI=6.4-20.9) to 5.7 (95% CI=3.2-10.3). In both periods, suicide rates tended to be higher in older patients, in men, in injection drug users, and in patients with advanced clinical stage of HIV illness. An increase in CD4 cell counts was associated with a reduced risk of suicide. CONCLUSIONS: Suicide rates decreased significantly with the introduction of HAART, but they remain above the rate observed in the general population, and risk factors for suicide remain similar. HIV-infected patients remain an important target group for suicide prevention.

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We study the earnings structure and the equilibrium assignment of workers when workers exert intra-firm spillovers on each other.We allow for arbitrary spillovers provided output depends on some aggregate index of workers' skill. Despite the possibility of increasing returns to skills, equilibrium typically exists. We show that equilibrium will typically be segregated; that the skill space can be partitioned into a set of segments and any firm hires from only one segment. Next, we apply the model to analyze the effect of information technology on segmentation and the distribution of income. There are two types of human capital, productivity and creativity, i.e. the ability to produce ideas that may be duplicated over a network. Under plausible assumptions, inequality rises and then falls when network size increases, and the poorest workers cannot lose. We also analyze the impact of an improvement in worker quality and of an increased international mobility of ideas.

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New data on the distributibn and conservation status of some angiosperms of the Cape Verde Islands, W Africa Intensive field work aud analysis of the state of biodiversity ou all islands during the years iYY.3 lo IYYY Icd lo lhc publication ol’several contributions lo the flora and vegelalion of the archipclago of Cabo Verde (Brochniann & al. 1997, Gornes & Vera-Cruz 1993. Gonles & al. I9YSa-h. 1998, Games 1997. Kilian & Leyens 1994, Leyens 1998. Leyens & Lobin 1995, Lobin & al. 1995) as well as to the compilation of the First Red Data List for the Cape Verde Islnuds (Lcyrus & Lobin 1996). the elaboration of the National Strategy for Biodiversity Conservation (SIPA 19YY) and ! compilation of all areas in urgent need of protection (Leyens unpubl. diplonla thc.\is IYYJ. Gwnes & al. iu prep.). As part UC the activities of the lnstituto National de Invcstig;u$o c Dcscnvolvitucnto Agriirio (INIDA) and the Dcpurtamcnto de GeociSncias do Institute Supcriot de Educ;u$o t ISE) iutcnsive t’icld studies were conducted PI many diffcrctu localilics OII xcvcr;~I islands. resulting in a thesis tGo~nes IY97) and several terminal study papers (Luz IYYY. Cosi;t 1994. Gonsalvez 1999). The results show that the vegetation and flora of the islands arc still IWI fully known and much more field work is needed. hllhot~gh Sanliiqw is one of lhc islands whcrc lhc firs1 holanicill iIlVcxligilliollx wcrr c:crriul WI (Wcbh 1x49. Schruidt 1x52. Chcvalicr IY35) and where uu~ny intensive field studirs wcrc

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Bakeriella lata sp. nov. (Brazil, Rondônia), Bakeriella aurata sp. nov. (Brazil, Amazonas) and Bakeriella sulcaticeps sp. nov. (Brazil, Amazonas) are described and illustrated. New geographic records and variation data for B. cristata Evans, 1964, B. floridana Evans, 1964, B. flavicornis Kieffer, 1910, B. incompleta Azevedo, 1994, B. mira Evans, 1997, B. montivaga (Kieffer, 1910), B. olmeca Evans, 1964 and B. subcarinata Evans, 1965 are provided. The male of B. incompleta is described for the first time.

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This paper studies the dynamics of the distribution of wealth in ageneral equilibrium framework. It considers an overlapping generationsmodel with production and altruistic preferences in which individualsface an uncertain lifetime and annuity markets do not exist. Thispaper focuses on the role that accidental bequests, voluntary bequests,and non--negativity constraints on bequests play in the dynamics of thedistribution of wealth. It is proved that the equilibrium interestrate is lower than the one that satisfies the modified goldenrule. In this economy, a social security system not only plays aninsurance role, but also prevents capital overaccumulation. In fact,this paper shows that a pay--as--you--go social security systemdecentralizes the social planner solution as a competitive equilibrium.

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Studies on lower attines are scarce, especially on nesting and foraging ecology and behavior. This study aimed to contribute to the knowledge of an Attini in dunes ecosystems through the description of density and spatial distribution of Mycetophylax simplex (Emery, 1887) nests in a strip of mobile dunes in the Praia Grande beach, Torres, northern coast of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The density and spatial distribution of nests were estimated in four plots of 2,500 m² each, in which were found 20, 209, 284 and 324 nests, with average densities of 0.01 nests/m², 0.09, 0.11 and 0.13 nests/m², respectively. The nests were found near to the vegetation and showed clumped distribution. The density and distribution pattern of the nests seem to be related to the availability of nesting places and foraging resources.

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In the mid-1980s, many European countries introduced fixed-term contracts.Since then their labor markets have become more dynamic. This paper studiesthe implications of such reforms for the duration distribution ofunemployment, with particular emphasis on the changes in the durationdependence. I estimate a parametric duration model using cross-sectionaldata drawn from the Spanish Labor Force Survey from 1980 to 1994 to analyzethe chances of leaving unemployment before and after the introduction offixed-term contracts. I find that duration dependence has increased sincesuch reform. Semi-parametric estimation of the model also shows that forlong spells, the probability of leaving unemployment has decreased sincesuch reform.

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Colon carcinoma multicellular spheroids were incubated in vitro with radiolabelled MAbs. The more rapid penetration of fragments as compared to intact MAbs was clearly demonstrated. For the study of antibody localization in tumors in vivo, the model of nude mice with ligated kidneys was used. Although very artificial, this model allowed to demonstrate that, without urinary excretion, Fab fragments accumulated more rapidly into the tumor than intact MAbs and disappeared faster from the blood. This difference was less striking for F(ab')2 fragments. In the liver a decreased accumulation of both types of fragments as compared to intact MAbs was observed. Concerning radioimmunotherapy we think that Fab fragments are not useful because of their too short half-life in the circulation and in tumor and because they will probably be too toxic for the kidneys. Intact MAbs and F(ab')2 fragments have each their advantages. Intact MAbs show highest tumor accumulation in mice without ligated kidney, however, they remain mostly on the periphery of tumor nodules, as shown by autoradiography. F(ab')2 fragments have been found to penetrate deeper into the tumor and to accumulate less in the liver. It might be therefore an advantage to combine intact MAbs with F(ab')2 fragments, so that in the tumor two different regions could be attacked whereas in normal tissues toxicity could be distributed to different organs such as to the liver with intact MAbs and to the kidney with F(ab')2 fragments.