Economic analysis of climate change adaptation strategies in selected coastal areas in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam

Climate change with its attendant geophysical hazards is well studied. A great deal of attention has gone into analyzing climate change impacts as well as searching out possible mitigating adaptive strategies. These matters are very real concerns, especially for coastal communities. Such communities are often the most vulnerable to climate change, since their citizens frequently live in abject poverty and have limited capacity to adapt to geophysical hazards. Their situation is further complicated by the prospect of dealing with a confluence of hazards in comparison with those in other ecosystems. Against this backdrop Worldfish and the Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA) collaborated to implement the cross-country study “Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability Assessments, Economic and Policy Analysis of Adaptation Strategies in Selected Coastal Areas in Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam”. As its title suggests the study covered selected sites in Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. Employing a gamut of interdisciplinary methodologies -- ranging from community-based approaches such as community hazard mapping and focus group discussions (FGDs) to regression techniques -- the study documented the impacts from three climate hazards affecting coastal communities. These were typhoon/flooding, coastal erosion, and saltwater intrusion. The team also analyzed planned adaptation options suited to implementation by communities and local governments, augmenting autonomous responses of households to protect and insure themselves from these hazards.

New insights into the diets of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) in the Salish Sea revealed by analysis of fatty acid signatures

Harbor seals (Phoca fvitulina) are an abundant predator along the west coast of North America, and there is considerable interest in their diet composition, especially in regard to predation on valued fish stocks. Available informationon harbor seal diets, primarily derived from scat analysis, suggests that adult salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii), and gadids predominate. Because diet assessments based on scat analysis may be biased, we investigated diet composition through quantitative analysis of fatty acid signatures. Blubber samples from 49 harbor seals captured in western North America from haul-outs within the area of the San Juan Islands and southern Strait of Georgia in the Salish Sea were analyzed for fatty acid composition, along with 269 fish and squid specimens representing 27 potential prey classes. Diet estimates varied spatially, demographically, and among individual harbor seals. Findings confirmed the prevalence of previously identified prey species in harbor seal diets, but other species also contributed significantly. In particular, Black (Sebastes melanops) and Yellowtail (S. flavidus) Rockfish were estimated to compose up to 50% of some individual seal diets. Specialization and high predation rates on Black and Yellowtail Rockfish by a subset of harbor seals may play a role in the population dynamics of these regional rockfish stocks that is greater than previously realized.

Spatial and temporal analysis of bottlenose dolphin strandings in South Carolina, 1992-2005

This CD contains summary data of bottlenose dolphins stranded in South Carolina using a Geographical Information System (GIS) and contains two published manuscripts in .pdf files. The intent of this CD is to provide data on bottlenose dolphin strandings in South Carolina to marine mammal researchers and managers. This CD is an accumulation of 14 years of stranding data collected through the collaborations of the National Ocean Service, Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research (CCEHBR), the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, and numerous volunteers and veterinarians that comprised the South Carolina Marine Mammal Stranding Network. Spatial and temporal information can be visually represented on maps using GIS. For this CD, maps were created to show relationships of stranding densities with land use, human population density, human interaction with dolphins, high geographical regions of live strandings, and seasonal changes. Point maps were also created to show individual strandings within South Carolina. In summary, spatial analysis revealed higher densities of bottlenose dolphin strandings in Charleston and Beaufort Counties, which consist of urban land with agricultural input. This trend was positively correlated with higher human population levels in these coastal counties as compared with other coastal counties. However, spatial analysis revealed that certain areas within a county may have low human population levels but high stranding density, suggesting that the level of effort to respond to strandings is not necessarily positively correlated with the density of strandings in South Carolina. Temporal analysis revealed a significantly higher density of bottlenose dolphin strandings in the northern portion of the State in the fall, mostly due to an increase of neonate strandings. On a finer geographic scale, seasonal stranding densities may fluctuate depending on the region of interest. Charleston Harbor had the highest density of live bottlenose dolphin strandings compared to the rest of the State. This was due in large part to the number of live dolphin entanglements in the crab pot fishery, the largest source of fishery-related mortality for bottlenose dolphins in South Carolina (Burdett and McFee 2004). Spatial density calculations also revealed that Charleston and Beaufort accounted for the majority of dolphins that were involved with human activities. 1

The Southeast Bering Sea Ecosystem: implications for marine resource management (Final Report: Southeast Bering Sea Carrying Capacity).

Southeast Bering Sea Carrying Capacity (SEBSCC, 1996–2002) was a NOAA Coastal Ocean Program project that investigated the marine ecosystem of the southeastern Bering Sea. SEBSCC was co-managed by the University of Alaska Fairbanks, NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center, and NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. Project goals were to understand the changing physical environment and its relationship to the biota of the region, to relate that understanding to natural variations in year-class strength of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), and to improve the flow of ecosystem information to fishery managers. In addition to SEBSCC, the Inner Front study (1997–2000), supported by the National Science Foundation (Prolonged Production and Trophic Transfer to Predators: Processes at the Inner Front of the S.E. Bering Sea), was active in the southeastern Bering Sea from 1997 to 1999. The SEBSCC and Inner Front studies were complementary. SEBSCC focused on the middle and outer shelf. Inner Front worked the middle and inner shelf. Collaboration between investigators in the two programs was strong, and the joint results yielded a substantially increased understanding of the regional ecosystem. SEBSCC focused on four central scientific issues: (1) How does climate variability influence the marine ecosystem of the Bering Sea? (2) What determines the timing, amount, and fate of primary and secondary production? (3) How do oceanographic conditions on the shelf influence distributions of fish and other species? (4) What limits the growth of fish populations on the eastern Bering Sea shelf? Underlying these broad questions was a narrower focus on walleye pollock, particularly a desire to understand ecological factors that affect year-class strength and the ability to predict the potential of a year class at the earliest possible time. The Inner Front program focused on the role of the structural front between the well-mixed waters of the coastal domain and the two-layer system of the middle domain. Of special interest was the potential for prolonged post-spring-bloom production at the front and its role in supporting upper trophic level organisms such as juvenile pollock and seabirds. Of concern to both programs was the role of interannual and longer-term variability in marine climates and their effects on the function of sub-arctic marine ecosystems and their ability to support upper trophic level organisms.

Using wildlife activity and antibiotic resistance analysis to model bacterial water quality in coastal ponds

Models that help predict fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) levels in environmental waters can be important tools for resource managers. In this study, we used animal activity along with antibiotic resistance analysis (ARA), land cover, and other variables to build models that predict bacteria levels in coastal ponds that discharge into an estuary. Photographic wildlife monitoring was used to estimate terrestrial and aquatic wildlife activity prior to sampling. Increased duck activity was an important predictor of increased FCB in coastal ponds. Terrestrial animals like deer and raccoon, although abundant, were not significant in our model. Various land cover types, rainfall, tide, solar irradiation, air temperature, and season parameters, in combination with duck activity, were significant predictors of increased FCB. It appears that tidal ponds allow for settling of bacteria under most conditions. We propose that these models can be used to test different development styles and wildlife management techniques to reduce bacterial loading into downstream shellfish harvesting and contact recreation areas.

Genetic analysis of juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) off Oregon and Washington reveals few Columbia River wild fish

Little is known about the ocean distributions of wild juvenile coho salmon off the Oregon-Washington coast. In this study we report tag recoveries and genetic mixed-stock estimates of juvenile fish caught in coastal waters near the Columbia River plume. To support the genetic estimates, we report an allozyme-frequency baseline for 89 wild and hatchery-reared coho salmon spawning populations, extending from northern California to southern British Columbia. The products of 59 allozyme-encoding loci were examined with starch-gel electrophoresis. Of these, 56 loci were polymorphic, and 29 loci had P0.95 levels of polymorphism. Average heterozygosities within populations ranged from 0.021 to 0.046 and averaged 0.033. Multidimensional scaling of chord genetic distances between samples resolved nine regional groups that were sufficiently distinct for genetic mixed-stock analysis. About 2.9% of the total gene diversity was due to differences among populations within these regions, and 2.6% was due to differences among the nine regions. This allele-frequency data base was used to estimate the stock proportions of 730 juvenile coho salmon in offshore samples collected from central Oregon to northern Washington in June and September-October 1998−2000. Genetic mixed-stock analysis, together with recoveries of tagged or fin-clipped fish, indicates that about one half of the juveniles came from Columbia River hatcheries. Only 22% of the ocean-caught juveniles were wild fish, originating largely from coastal Oregon and Washington rivers (about 20%). Unlike previous studies of tagged juveniles, both tag recoveries and genetic estimates indicate the presence of fish from British Columbia and Puget Sound in southern waters. The most salient feature of genetic mixed stock estimates was the paucity of wild juveniles from natural populations in the Columbia River Basin. This result reflects the large decrease in the abundances of these populations in the last few decades.