On the economic analysis of response to preventive measures

There are many circumstances in which the effectiveness of preventive measures depends to a large extent on the compliance of the patient in changing his or her behavior or lifestyle. It is shown how economic techniques can be used (i) to describe the rationale of individuals and predict their behavior (Section 2); and (ii) to assess preventive measures that, by requiring a change of conduct, imply "costs" to the individual due to a decline in the quality of life (Appendix). Cigarette smoking and coronary heart disease are used as an illustration. While the analysis of Section 2 uses graphical techniques, a simple textbook-type of lifetime utility model with a mathematical emphasis is used in the Appendix. It is also shown that techniques often used to assess health care programs such as the QALYs (Quality-Adjusted Life Years) are inappropriate to the evaluation of preventive programs aiming at behavioral changes. Finally, topics that call for further research are indicated.

Learning dependent sources using mixtures of Dirichlet: applications on hyperspectral unmixing

This paper is an elaboration of the DECA algorithm [1] to blindly unmix hyperspectral data. The underlying mixing model is linear, meaning that each pixel is a linear mixture of the endmembers signatures weighted by the correspondent abundance fractions. The proposed method, as DECA, is tailored to highly mixed mixtures in which the geometric based approaches fail to identify the simplex of minimum volume enclosing the observed spectral vectors. We resort then to a statitistical framework, where the abundance fractions are modeled as mixtures of Dirichlet densities, thus enforcing the constraints on abundance fractions imposed by the acquisition process, namely non-negativity and constant sum. With respect to DECA, we introduce two improvements: 1) the number of Dirichlet modes are inferred based on the minimum description length (MDL) principle; 2) The generalized expectation maximization (GEM) algorithm we adopt to infer the model parameters is improved by using alternating minimization and augmented Lagrangian methods to compute the mixing matrix. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is illustrated with simulated and read data.

A gestão do risco associado à negociação de energia eléctrica através de contratos bilaterais e mercado spot

Num mercado de electricidade competitivo onde existe um ambiente de incerteza, as empresas de geração adoptam estratégias que visam a maximização do lucro, e a minimização do risco. Neste contexto, é de extrema importância para desenvolver uma estratégia adequada de gestão de risco ter em conta as diferentes opções de negociação de energia num mercado liberalizado, de forma a suportar a tomada de decisões na gestão de risco. O presente trabalho apresenta um modelo que avalia a melhor estratégia de um produtor de energia eléctrica que comercializa num mercado competitivo, onde existem dois mercados possíveis para a transacção de energia: o mercado organizado (bolsa) e o mercado de contratos bilaterais. O produtor tenta maximizar seus lucros e minimizar os riscos correspondentes, seleccionando o melhor equilíbrio entre os dois mercados possíveis (bolsa e bilateral). O mercado de contratos bilaterais visa gerir adequadamente os riscos inerentes à operação de mercados no curto prazo (mercado organizado) e dar o vendedor / comprador uma capacidade real de escolher o fornecedor com que quer negociar. O modelo apresentado neste trabalho faz uma caracterização explícita do risco no que diz respeito ao agente de mercado na questão da sua atitude face ao risco, medido pelo Value at Risk (VaR), descrito neste trabalho por Lucro-em-Risco (PAR). O preço e os factores de risco de volume são caracterizados por um valor médio e um desvio padrão, e são modelizados por distribuições normais. Os resultados numéricos são obtidos utilizando a simulação de Monte Carlo implementado em Matlab, e que é aplicado a um produtor que mantém uma carteira diversificada de tecnologias de geração, para um horizonte temporal de um ano. Esta dissertação está organizada da seguinte forma: o capítulo 1, 2 e 3 descrevem o estado-da-arte relacionado com a gestão de risco na comercialização de energia eléctrica. O capítulo 4 descreve o modelo desenvolvido e implementado, onde é também apresentado um estudo de caso com uma aplicação do modelo para avaliar o risco de negociação de um produtor. No capítulo 5 são apresentadas as principais conclusões.

Estratégias para negociação de contratos bilaterais em mercados multi-agente de energia eléctrica

A energia eléctrica é um bem essencial para a maioria das sociedades. O seu fornecimento tem sido encarado como um serviço público, da responsabilidade dos governos, através de empresas monopolistas, públicas e privadas. O Mercado Ibérico de Electricidade (MIBEL) surge com o objectivo da integração e cooperação do sector eléctrico Português e Espanhol, no qual é possível negociar preços e volumes de energia. Actualmente, as entidades podem negociar através de um mercado bolsista ou num mercado de contratos bilaterais. Uma análise dos mercados de electricidade existentes mostra que estes estão longe de estarem liberalizados. As tarifas não reflectem o efeito da competitividade. Além disso, o recurso a contratos bilaterais limita frequentemente os clientes a um único fornecedor de energia eléctrica. Nos últimos anos, têm surgido uma série de ferramentas computacionais que permitem simular, parte ou a totalidade, dos mercados de electricidade. Contudo, apesar das suas potencialidades, muitos simuladores carecem de flexibilidade e generalidade. Nesta perspectiva, esta dissertação tem como principal objectivo o desenvolvimento de um simulador de mercados de energia eléctrica que possibilite lidar com as dificuldades inerentes a este novo modelo de mercado, recorrendo a agentes computacionais autónomos. A dissertação descreve o desenho e a implementação de um simulador simplificado para negociação de contratos bilaterais em mercados de energia, com particular incidência para o desenho das estratégias a utilizar pelas partes negociais. Além disso, efectua-se a descrição de um caso prático, com dados do MIBEL. Descrevem-se também várias simulações computacionais, envolvendo retalhistas e consumidores de energia eléctrica, que utilizam diferentes estratégias negociais. Efectua-se a análise detalhada dos resultados obtidos. De forma sucinta, os resultados permitem concluir que as melhores estratégias para cada entidade, no caso prático estudado, são: a estratégia de concessões fixas, para o retalhista, e a estratégia de concessões baseada no volume de energia, para o consumidor.

GA topology optimization using random keys for tree encoding of structures

Topology optimization consists in finding the spatial distribution of a given total volume of material for the resulting structure to have some optimal property, for instance, maximization of structural stiffness or maximization of the fundamental eigenfrequency. In this paper a Genetic Algorithm (GA) employing a representation method based on trees is developed to generate initial feasible individuals that remain feasible upon crossover and mutation and as such do not require any repairing operator to ensure feasibility. Several application examples are studied involving the topology optimization of structures where the objective functions is the maximization of the stiffness and the maximization of the first and the second eigenfrequencies of a plate, all cases having a prescribed material volume constraint.

Avaliação da dose absorvida na tiróide, em cintigrafias com 123I e Na99mTcO4 utilizando modelos biocinéticos e métodos de Monte Carlo

Mestrado em Radiações Aplicadas às Tecnologias da Saúde. Área de especialização: Protecção contra Radiações

Eastwards / westwards: which direction for gender studies in the 21st century?

Eastwards / Westwards: Which Direction for Gender Studies in the XXIst Century? is a collection of essays which focus on themes and methods that characterize current research into gender in Asian countries in general. In this collection, ideas derived from Gender Studies elsewhere in the world have been subjected to scrutiny for their utility in helping to describe and understand regional phenomena. But the concepts of Local and Global – with their discoursive productions – have not functioned as a binary opposition: localism and globalism are mutually constitutive and researchers have interrogated those spaces of interaction between the ‘self’ and the ‘other’, bearing in mind their own embeddedness in social and cultural structures and their own historical memory. Contributors to this collection provided a critical transnational perspective on some of the complex effects of the dynamics of cultural globalization, by exploring the relation between gender and development, language, historiography, education and culture. We have also given attention to the ideological and rhetorical processes through which gender identity is constructed, by comparing textual grids and patterns of expectation. Likewise, we have discussed the role of ethnography, anthropology, historiography, sociology, fiction, popular culture and colonial and post-colonial sources in (re)inventing old/new male/female identities, their conversion into concepts and circulation through time and space. This multicultural and trans-disciplinary selection of essays is totally written in English, fully edited and revised, therefore, it has a good potential for an immediate international circulation. This project may trace new paths and issues for discussion on what concerns the life, practices and narratives by and about women in Asia, as well as elsewhere in the present day global experience. Academic readership: Researchers, scholars, educators, graduate and post-graduate students, doctoral students and general non-fiction readers, with a special interest in Gender Studies, Asia, Colonial and Post-Colonial Literature, Anthropology, Cultural Studies, History, Historiography, Politics, Race, Feminism, Language, Linguistics, Power, Political and Feminist Agendas, Popular Culture, Education, Women’s Writing, Religion, Multiculturalism, Globalisation, Migration. Chapter summary: 1. “Social Gender Stereotypes and their Implication in Hindi”, Anjali Pande, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India. This essay looks at the subtle ways in which gender identities are constructed and reinforced in India through social norms of language use. Language itself becomes a medium for perpetuating gender stereotypes, forcing its speakers to confirm to socially defined gender roles. Using examples from a classroom discussion about a film, this essay will highlight the underlying rigid male-female stereotypes in Indian society with their more obvious expressions in language. For the urban woman in India globalisation meant increased economic equality and exposure to changed lifestyles. On an individual level it also meant redefining gender relations and changing the hierarchy in man-­woman relationships. With the economic independence there is a heightened sense of liberation in all spheres of social life, a confidence to fuzz the rigid boundaries of gender roles. With the new films and media celebrating this liberated woman, who is ready to assert her sexual needs, who is ready to explode those long held notions of morality, one would expect that the changes are not just superficial. But as it soon became obvious in the course of a classroom discussion about relationships and stereotypes related to age, the surface changes can not become part of the common vocabulary, for the obvious reason that there is still a vast gap between the screen image of this new woman and the ground reality. Social considerations define the limits of this assertiveness of women, whereas men are happy to be liberal within the larger frame of social sanctions. The educated urban woman in India speaks in favour of change and the educated urban male supports her, but one just needs to scratch the surface to see the time tested formulae of gender roles firmly in place. The way the urban woman happily balances this emerging promise of independence with her gendered social identity, makes it necessary to rethink some aspects of looking at gender in a gradually changing, traditional society like India. 2. “The Linguistic Dimension of Gender Equality”, Alissa Tolstokorova, Kiev Centre for Gender Information and Education, Ukraine. The subject-matter of this essay is gender justice in language which, as I argue, may be achieved through the development of a gender-related approach to linguistic human rights. The last decades of the 20th century, globally marked by a “gender shift” in attitudes to language policy, gave impetus to the social movement for promoting linguistic gender equality. It was initiated in Western Europe and nowadays is moving eastwards, as ideas of gender democracy progress into developing countries. But, while in western societies gender discrimination through language, or linguistic sexism, was an issue of concern for over three decades, in developing countries efforts to promote gender justice in language are only in their infancy. My argument is that to promote gender justice in language internationally it is necessary to acknowledge the rights of women and men to equal representation of their gender in language and speech and, therefore, raise a question of linguistic rights of the sexes. My understanding is that the adoption of the Universal Declaration of Linguistic Rights in 1996 provided this opportunity to address the problem of gender justice in language as a human rights issue, specifically as a gender dimension of linguistic human rights. 3. “The Rebirth of an Old Language: Issues of Gender Equality in Kazakhstan”, Maria Helena Guimarães, Polytechnic Institute of Porto, Portugal. The existing language situation in Kazakhstan, while peaceful, is not without some tension. We propose to analyze here some questions we consider relevant in the frame of cultural globalization and gender equality, such as: free from Russian imperialism, could Kazakhstan become an easy prey of Turkey’s “imperialist dream”? Could these traditionally Muslim people be soon facing the end of religious tolerance and gender equality, becoming this new old language an easy instrument for the infiltration in the country of fundamentalism (it has already crossed the boarders of Uzbekistan), leading to a gradual deterioration of its rich multicultural relations? The present structure of the language is still very fragile: there are three main dialects and many academics defend the re-introduction of the Latin alphabet, thus enlarging the possibility of cultural “contamination” by making the transmission of fundamentalist ideas still easier through neighbour countries like Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan (their languages belong to the same sub-group of Common Turkic), where the Latin alphabet is already in use, and where the ground for such ideas shown itself very fruitful. 4. “Construction of Womanhood in the Bengali Language of Bangladesh”, Raasheed Mahmood; University of New South Wales, Sydney. The present essay attempts to explore the role of gender-based language differences and of certain markers that reveal the status accorded to women in Bangladesh. Discrimination against women, in its various forms, is endemic in communities and countries around the world, cutting across class, race, age, and religious and national boundaries. One cannot understand the problems of gender discrimination solely by referring to the relationship of power or authority between men and women. Rather one needs to consider the problem by relating it to the specific social formation in which the image of masculinity and femininity is constructed and reconstructed. Following such line of reasoning this essay will examine the nature of gender bias in the Bengali language of Bangladesh, holding the conviction that as a product of social reality language reflects the socio-cultural behaviour of the community who speaks it. This essay will also attempt to shed some light on the processes through which gender based language differences produce actual consequences for women, who become exposed to low self-esteem, depression and systematic exclusion from public discourse. 5. “Marriage in China as an expression of a changing society”, Elisabetta Rosado David, University of Porto, Portugal, and Università Ca’Foscari, Venezia, Italy. In 29 April 2001, the new Marriage Law was promulgated in China. The first law on marriage was proclaimed in 1950 with the objective of freeing women from the feudal matrimonial system. With the second law, in 1981, values and conditions that had been distorted by the Cultural Revolution were recovered. Twenty years later, a new reform was started, intending to update marriage in the view of the social and cultural changes that occurred with Deng Xiaoping’s “open policy”. But the legal reform is only the starting point for this case-study. The rituals that are followed in the wedding ceremony are often hard to understand and very difficult to standardize, especially because China is a vast country, densely populated and characterized by several ethnic minorities. Two key words emerge from this issue: syncretism and continuity. On this basis, we can understand tradition in a better way, and analyse whether or not marriage, as every social manifestation, has evolved in harmony with Chinese culture. 6. “The Other Woman in the Portuguese Colonial Empire: The Case of Portuguese India”, Maria de Deus Manso, University of Évora, Portugal. This essay researches the social, cultural and symbolic history of local women in the Portuguese Indian colonial enclaves. The normative Portuguese overseas history has not paid any attention to the “indigenous” female populations in colonial Portuguese territories, albeit the large social importance of these social segments largely used in matrimonial and even catholic missionary strategies. The first attempt to open fresh windows in the history of this new field was the publication of Charles Boxer’s referential study about Women in lberian Overseas Expansion, edited in Portugal only after the Revolution of 1975. After this research we can only quote some other fragmentary efforts. In fact, research about the social, cultural, religious, political and symbolic situation of women in the Portuguese colonial territories, from the XVI to the XX century, is still a minor historiographic field. In this essay we discuss this problem and we study colonial representations of women in the Portuguese Indian enclaves, mainly in the territory of Goa, using case studies methodologies. 7. “Heading East this Time: Critical Readings on Gender in Southeast Asia”, Clara Sarmento, Polytechnic Institute of Porto, Portugal. This essay intends to discuss some critical readings of fictional and theoretical texts on gender condition in Southeast Asian countries. Nowadays, many texts about women in Southeast Asia apply concepts of power in unusual areas. Traditional forms of gender hegemony have been replaced by other powerful, if somewhat more covert, forms. We will discuss some universal values concerning conventional female roles as well as the strategies used to recognize women in political fields traditionally characterized by male dominance. Female empowerment will mean different things at different times in history, as a result of culture, local geography and individual circumstances. Empowerment needs to be perceived as an individual attitude, but it also has to be facilitated at the macro­level by society and the State. Gender is very much at the heart of all these dynamics, strongly related to specificities of historical, cultural, ethnic and class situatedness, requiring an interdisciplinary transnational approach.

Environmental impact on the bacteriological quality of domestic water supplies in Lagos, Nigeria

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of town planning, infrastructure, sanitation and rainfall on the bacteriological quality of domestic water supplies. METHODS: Water samples obtained from deep and shallow wells, boreholes and public taps were cultured to determine the most probable number of Escherichia coli and total coliform using the multiple tube technique. Presence of enteric pathogens was detected using selective and differential media. Samples were collected during both periods of heavy and low rainfall and from municipalities that are unique with respect to infrastructure planning, town planning and sanitation. RESULTS: Contamination of treated and pipe distributed water was related with distance of the collection point from a utility station. Faults in pipelines increased the rate of contamination (p<0.5) and this occurred mostly in densely populated areas with dilapidated infrastructure. Wastewater from drains was the main source of contamination of pipe-borne water. Shallow wells were more contaminated than deep wells and boreholes and contamination was higher during period of heavy rainfall (p<0.05). E. coli and enteric pathogens were isolated from contaminated supplies. CONCLUSIONS: Poor town planning, dilapidated infrastructure and indiscriminate siting of wells and boreholes contributed to the low bacteriological quality of domestic water supplies. Rainfall accentuated the impact.

A Implementação de um sistema de gestão da qualidadena Junta de Freguesia de Gandra

Trabalho de Projeto apresentado ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Auditoria Orientado por: Doutora Alcina Augusta de Sena Portugal Dias

Definition of MV Load Diagrams via Weighted Evidence Accumulation Clustering using Subsampling

A definition of medium voltage (MV) load diagrams was made, based on the data base knowledge discovery process. Clustering techniques were used as support for the agents of the electric power retail markets to obtain specific knowledge of their customers’ consumption habits. Each customer class resulting from the clustering operation is represented by its load diagram. The Two-step clustering algorithm and the WEACS approach based on evidence accumulation (EAC) were applied to an electricity consumption data from a utility client’s database in order to form the customer’s classes and to find a set of representative consumption patterns. The WEACS approach is a clustering ensemble combination approach that uses subsampling and that weights differently the partitions in the co-association matrix. As a complementary step to the WEACS approach, all the final data partitions produced by the different variations of the method are combined and the Ward Link algorithm is used to obtain the final data partition. Experiment results showed that WEACS approach led to better accuracy than many other clustering approaches. In this paper the WEACS approach separates better the customer’s population than Two-step clustering algorithm.

Determination of electricity consumers’ load profiles via weighted evidence accumulation clustering using subsampling

With the electricity market liberalization, the distribution and retail companies are looking for better market strategies based on adequate information upon the consumption patterns of its electricity consumers. A fair insight on the consumers’ behavior will permit the definition of specific contract aspects based on the different consumption patterns. In order to form the different consumers’ classes, and find a set of representative consumption patterns we use electricity consumption data from a utility client’s database and two approaches: Two-step clustering algorithm and the WEACS approach based on evidence accumulation (EAC) for combining partitions in a clustering ensemble. While EAC uses a voting mechanism to produce a co-association matrix based on the pairwise associations obtained from N partitions and where each partition has equal weight in the combination process, the WEACS approach uses subsampling and weights differently the partitions. As a complementary step to the WEACS approach, we combine the partitions obtained in the WEACS approach with the ALL clustering ensemble construction method and we use the Ward Link algorithm to obtain the final data partition. The characterization of the obtained consumers’ clusters was performed using the C5.0 classification algorithm. Experiment results showed that the WEACS approach leads to better results than many other clustering approaches.

Virtual power players dealing with excessive wind power situations using real time pricing

The increasing importance given by environmental policies to the dissemination and use of wind power has led to its fast and large integration in power systems. In most cases, this integration has been done in an intensive way, causing several impacts and challenges in current and future power systems operation and planning. One of these challenges is dealing with the system conditions in which the available wind power is higher than the system demand. This is one of the possible applications of demand response, which is a very promising resource in the context of competitive environments that integrates even more amounts of distributed energy resources, as well as new players. The methodology proposed aims the maximization of the social welfare in a smart grid operated by a virtual power player that manages the available energy resources. When facing excessive wind power generation availability, real time pricing is applied in order to induce the increase of consumption so that wind curtailment is minimized. The proposed method is especially useful when actual and day-ahead wind forecast differ significantly. The proposed method has been computationally implemented in GAMS optimization tool and its application is illustrated in this paper using a real 937-bus distribution network with 20310 consumers and 548 distributed generators, some of them with must take contracts.

A decision-support system based on particle swarm optimization for multiperiod hedging in electricity markets

This paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach to support electricity producers for multiperiod optimal contract allocation. The producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the tradeoff between the expectation and variance of the return. Variance estimation and expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a price range forecasting model developed by the authors. A certain confidence level is associated to each forecasted scenario interval. The proposed model makes use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. PSO performance was evaluated by comparing it with a genetic algorithm-based approach. This model can be used by producers in deregulated electricity markets but can easily be adapted to load serving entities and retailers. Moreover, it can easily be adapted to the use of other type of contracts.

Knowledge extraction from medium voltage load diagrams to support the definition of electrical tariffs

With the electricity market liberalization, distribution and retail companies are looking for better market strategies based on adequate information upon the consumption patterns of its electricity customers. In this environment all consumers are free to choose their electricity supplier. A fair insight on the customer´s behaviour will permit the definition of specific contract aspects based on the different consumption patterns. In this paper Data Mining (DM) techniques are applied to electricity consumption data from a utility client’s database. To form the different customer´s classes, and find a set of representative consumption patterns, we have used the Two-Step algorithm which is a hierarchical clustering algorithm. Each consumer class will be represented by its load profile resulting from the clustering operation. Next, to characterize each consumer class a classification model will be constructed with the C5.0 classification algorithm.

An efficient method for optimal location and sizing of fixed and switched shunt capacitors in large distribution systems

This paper proposes a computationally efficient methodology for the optimal location and sizing of static and switched shunt capacitors in large distribution systems. The problem is formulated as the maximization of the savings produced by the reduction in energy losses and the avoided costs due to investment deferral in the expansion of the network. The proposed method selects the nodes to be compensated, as well as the optimal capacitor ratings and their operational characteristics, i.e. fixed or switched. After an appropriate linearization, the optimization problem was formulated as a large-scale mixed-integer linear problem, suitable for being solved by means of a widespread commercial package. Results of the proposed optimizing method are compared with another recent methodology reported in the literature using two test cases: a 15-bus and a 33-bus distribution network. For the both cases tested, the proposed methodology delivers better solutions indicated by higher loss savings, which are achieved with lower amounts of capacitive compensation. The proposed method has also been applied for compensating to an actual large distribution network served by AES-Venezuela in the metropolitan area of Caracas. A convergence time of about 4 seconds after 22298 iterations demonstrates the ability of the proposed methodology for efficiently handling large-scale compensation problems.