Age-specific survival of male Golden-cheeked Warblers on the Fort Hood Military Reservation, Texas

Population models are essential components of large-scale conservation and management plans for the federally endangered Golden-cheeked Warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia; hereafter GCWA). However, existing models are based on vital rate estimates calculated using relatively small data sets that are now more than a decade old. We estimated more current, precise adult and juvenile apparent survival (Φ) probabilities and their associated variances for male GCWAs. In addition to providing estimates for use in population modeling, we tested hypotheses about spatial and temporal variation in Φ. We assessed whether a linear trend in Φ or a change in the overall mean Φ corresponded to an observed increase in GCWA abundance during 1992-2000 and if Φ varied among study plots. To accomplish these objectives, we analyzed long-term GCWA capture-resight data from 1992 through 2011, collected across seven study plots on the Fort Hood Military Reservation using a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model structure within program MARK. We also estimated Φ process and sampling variances using a variance-components approach. Our results did not provide evidence of site-specific variation in adult Φ on the installation. Because of a lack of data, we could not assess whether juvenile Φ varied spatially. We did not detect a strong temporal association between GCWA abundance and Φ. Mean estimates of Φ for adult and juvenile male GCWAs for all years analyzed were 0.47 with a process variance of 0.0120 and a sampling variance of 0.0113 and 0.28 with a process variance of 0.0076 and a sampling variance of 0.0149, respectively. Although juvenile Φ did not differ greatly from previous estimates, our adult Φ estimate suggests previous GCWA population models were overly optimistic with respect to adult survival. These updated Φ probabilities and their associated variances will be incorporated into new population models to assist with GCWA conservation decision making.

Density dependence and phenological mismatch: consequences for growth and survival of sub-arctic nesting Canada Geese

The extent to which species are plastic in the timing of their reproductive events relative to phenology suggests how climate change might affect their demography. An ecological mismatch between the timing of hatch for avian species and the peak availability in quality and quantity of forage for rapidly growing offspring might ultimately affect recruitment to the breeding population unless individuals can adjust the timing of breeding to adapt to changing phenology. We evaluated effects of goose density, hatch timing relative to forage plant phenology, and weather indices on annual growth of pre-fledging Canada geese (Branta canadensis) from 1993-2010 at Akimiski Island, Nunavut. We found effects of both density and hatch timing relative to forage plant phenology; the earlier that eggs hatched relative to forage plant phenology, the larger the mean gosling size near fledging. Goslings were smallest in years when hatch was latest relative to forage plant phenology, and when local abundance of breeding adults was highest. We found no evidence for a trend in relative hatch timing, but it was apparent that in early springs, Canada geese tended to hatch later relative to vegetation phenology, suggesting that geese were not always able to adjust the timing of nesting as rapidly as vegetation phenology was advanced. Analyses using forage biomass information revealed a positive relationship between gosling size and per capita biomass availability, suggesting a causal mechanism for the density effect. The effects of weather parameters explained additional variation in mean annual gosling size, although total June and July rainfall had a small additive effect on gosling size. Modelling of annual first-year survival probability using mean annual gosling size as an annual covariate revealed a positive relationship, suggesting that reduced gosling growth negatively impacts recruitment.

Variables associated with nest survival of Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) among vegetation communities commonly used for nesting

Among shrubland- and young forest-nesting bird species in North America, Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) are one of the most rapidly declining partly because of limited nesting habitat. Creation and management of high quality vegetation communities used for nesting are needed to reduce declines. Thus, we examined whether common characteristics could be managed across much of the Golden-winged Warbler’s breeding range to increase daily survival rate (DSR) of nests. We monitored 388 nests on 62 sites throughout Minnesota, Wisconsin, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and West Virginia. We evaluated competing DSR models in spatial-temporal (dominant vegetation type, population segment, state, and year), intraseasonal (nest stage and time-within-season), and vegetation model suites. The best-supported DSR models among the three model suites suggested potential associations between daily survival rate of nests and state, time-within-season, percent grass and Rubus cover within 1 m of the nest, and distance to later successional forest edge. Overall, grass cover (negative association with DSR above 50%) and Rubus cover (DSR lowest at about 30%) within 1 m of the nest and distance to later successional forest edge (negative association with DSR) may represent common management targets across our states for increasing Golden-winged Warbler DSR, particularly in the Appalachian Mountains population segment. Context-specific adjustments to management strategies, such as in wetlands or areas of overlap with Blue-winged Warblers (Vermivora cyanoptera), may be necessary to increase DSR for Golden-winged Warblers.

Uses of airborne scanning laser altimetry for river flood modelling and coastal geomorphology

Two ongoing projects at ESSC that involve the development of new techniques for extracting information from airborne LiDAR data and combining this information with environmental models will be discussed. The first project in conjunction with Bristol University is aiming to improve 2-D river flood flow models by using remote sensing to provide distributed data for model calibration and validation. Airborne LiDAR can provide such models with a dense and accurate floodplain topography together with vegetation heights for parameterisation of model friction. The vegetation height data can be used to specify a friction factor at each node of a model’s finite element mesh. A LiDAR range image segmenter has been developed which converts a LiDAR image into separate raster maps of surface topography and vegetation height for use in the model. Satellite and airborne SAR data have been used to measure flood extent remotely in order to validate the modelled flood extent. Methods have also been developed for improving the models by decomposing the model’s finite element mesh to reflect floodplain features such as hedges and trees having different frictional properties to their surroundings. Originally developed for rural floodplains, the segmenter is currently being extended to provide DEMs and friction parameter maps for urban floods, by fusing the LiDAR data with digital map data. The second project is concerned with the extraction of tidal channel networks from LiDAR. These networks are important features of the inter-tidal zone, and play a key role in tidal propagation and in the evolution of salt-marshes and tidal flats. The study of their morphology is currently an active area of research, and a number of theories related to networks have been developed which require validation using dense and extensive observations of network forms and cross-sections. The conventional method of measuring networks is cumbersome and subjective, involving manual digitisation of aerial photographs in conjunction with field measurement of channel depths and widths for selected parts of the network. A semi-automatic technique has been developed to extract networks from LiDAR data of the inter-tidal zone. A multi-level knowledge-based approach has been implemented, whereby low level algorithms first extract channel fragments based mainly on image properties then a high level processing stage improves the network using domain knowledge. The approach adopted at low level uses multi-scale edge detection to detect channel edges, then associates adjacent anti-parallel edges together to form channels. The higher level processing includes a channel repair mechanism.

Now, Don’t Go Chasing Rabbits

The Ithaka US Faculty Survey 2012 (http://bit.ly/10NnQw9) is out, and by the time you read my blurb, it will have cobwebs on it, and the 2013 will be well on the way. So, why write about it at all? It’s always important to find out what people think of you, in this case libraries and their main clientele, faculty, even if what you find out may have to have a dozen qualifications surrounding it. Libraries and librarians are either on the cusp of something new and exciting, or on the edge of the abyss, soon to fall into oblivion, so finding out what people think should be important to us. So why not take a peek?

Integração de dados geofísicos e geológicos na avaliação ambiental e epidemiológica de radiações naturais (radônio) no escudo Sul-Riograndense (RS-Brasil)

Os efeitos provocados por radiações são conhecidos na literatura por meio dos estudos em usinas nucleares e em testes bélicos. Entretanto, os efeitos da radiação natural vêm despertando a atenção das autoridades da saúde, dentre as quais se destaca a Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) nos Estados Unidos e a National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB) no Reino Unido. Os efeitos epidemiológicos ocasionados por radiação de origem natural, mais especificamente a radiação emanada pelo gás radônio que fica acumulado em residências enclausuradas por muito tempo, tem sido alvo de intensas investigações. Nessa dissertação, foi realizada uma avaliação ambiental preliminar da radiação natural devida ao radônio como elemento epidemiológico no Escudo Sul-riograndense. Os dados utilizados para determinar o risco epidemiológico foram: neoplasias, radiação, geologia e população. O banco de dados dos casos de óbitos por neoplasias do estado foi obtido da Secretaria da Saúde, por meio do Núcleo de Informação em Saúde. A radiação natural devida ao radônio foi determinada a partir dos dados gamaespectrométricos obtidos de levantamento aerogeofísico da CPRM no Escudo Sul-riograndense, nos projetos Camaquã e Extremo Sudeste do Brasil realizados nos anos de 1973 e 1978, respectivamente. Os dados geológicos foram obtidos do Mapa Geológico do Estado de 1989. Os dados de população foram obtidos junto ao Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). A integração de dados foi realizada usando a metodologia de matriz de sobreposição entre os dados de casos de óbitos por neoplasia e de gamaespectrometria. Os dados de população foram empregados para normalizar os dados de neoplasias, e o dado de geologia para correlacionar com a gamaespectrometria. Os resultados da integração são mapas classificados pelo grau de risco epidemiológico, nos quais é apresentada a relação entre os casos de neoplasias pela intensidade de radiação devida ao radônio. Nesse sentido, uma boa relação foi assinalada e são recomendados estudos adicionais sobre esse mesmo banco de dados.

Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Data consists of metal-commodity prices at a monthly and quarterly frequencies from 1957 to 2012, extracted from the IFS, and annual data, provided from 1900-2010 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009). We investigate short- and long-run comovement by applying the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. One of the main contributions of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, our main contribution is to show the benefits of forecast-combination techniques, which outperform individual-model forecasts - including the random-walk model. We use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates and functional forms to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. Using a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. Empirically, we show that models incorporating (short-run) common-cycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation.

Limites e evolução geodinâmica do Sistema Jaguaribeano, Província Borborema, Nordeste do Brasil

The studied area is geologically located in the Northern Domain of the Borborema Province (Northeast Brazil), limited to the south by the Patos shear zone. Terranes of the Jaguaribeano system are dominant, flanked by the Piranhas (E and S sides) and Central Ceará (NE side) terranes. Its basement comprises gneiss -migmatite terrains of Paleoproterozoic to Archean age (2.6 to 1.9 Ga old), overprinted by neoproterozoic to cambrian tectonotherma l events. Narrow supracrustal belts ( schist belts) display a 1.6 to 1.8 Ga age, as shown by whole - rock Rb-Sr and zircon U-Pb and Pb/Pb dates in acid metavolcanics which dominate in the lower section of these sequences, and in coeval metaplutonics (granitic augen gneisses). From the stratigraphic point of view, three Staterian belts are recognized: 1. Orós Belt - made up by the Orós Group, subdivided in the Santarém (predominantly pure to impure quartzites, micaschists and metacarbonates) and Campo Alegre (metandesites, metabasalts, metarhyolites and metarhyodacites, interlayered with metatuffs and metasediments) formations, and by the Serra do Deserto Magmatic Suite (granitic augen gneisses). 2. Jaguaribe Belt - its lithostratigrahic-lithodemic framework is similar to the one of the Orós Belt, however with a greater expression of the volcano -plutonic components (Campo Alegre Formation and Serra do Deserto Magmatic Suite). The Peixe Gordo Sequence, separately described, is also related to this belt and contain s metasedimentary, metavolcanic (with subordinated volcanoclastics) and metaplutonic units. The first one correlated to the Orós Group and the latter the Serra do Deserto Magmatic Suite. 3. Western Potiguar Belt - represented by the Serra de São José Gro up, subdivided in the Catolezinho (biotite -amphibole gneisses with intercalations of metacarbonates, calcsilicate rocks, amphibolites and quartzite beds to the top) and Minhuins (quartzites, micaschists, metaconglomerates, calcsilicate rocks, acid to the b asic metavolcanics and metatuffs) formations. Its late Paleoproterozoic (Staterian) age was established by a Pb/Pb date on zircons from a granitic orthogneiss of the Catolezinho Formation. The petrographic characteristics and sedimentary structures of the Santarém Formation of the Orós Group point to deltaic to shallow marine depositional systems, overlain by deep water deposits (turbidites). The geodynamic setting of this region encompassed a large depositional basin, probably extending to the east of the Portalegre shear zone and west of the Senador Pompeu shear zone, with possible equivalents in the Jucurutu Formation of the Seridó Belt and in the Ceará Group of central Ceará. The Arneiróz Belt, west Ceará, displays some stratigraphic features and granito ids geochemically akin to the ones of the Orós Belt. The evolutionary setting started with an extensional phase which was more active in the eastern part of this domain (Western Potiguar and part of the Jaguaribe belts), where the rudite and psamite sedime ntation relates to a fluviatile rift environment which evolved to a prograding deltaic system to the west (Orós Group). The basaltic andesitic and rhyolitic volcanics were associated to this extensional phase. During this magmatic event, acid magmas also crystallized at plutonic depths. The Orós Group illustrates the environmental conditions in the western part of this domain. Later on, after a large time gap (1.6 to 1.1 Ga), the region was subjected to an extensional deformational episode marked by 900 Ma old (Sm-Nd data) basic rocks, possibly in connection with the deposition of the Cachoeirinha Group south of the Patos shear zone. In the 800 to 500 Ma age interval, the region was affected by important deformational and metamorphic events coupled with in trusion of granitic rocks of variable size (dykes to batholiths), related to the Brasiliano/Pan -African geotectonic cycle. These events produced structural blocks which differentiate, one from the other, according to the importance of anatectic mobilizatio n, proportion of high-grade supracrustals and the amount of neoproterozoic -cambrian granitoid intrusions. On this basis, a large portion of the Jaguaretama Block/Terrane is relatively well preserved from this late overprint. The border belts of the Jagua retama Block (Western Potiguar and Arneiroz) display kyanite-bearing (medium pressure) mineral associations, while in the inner part of the block there is a north-south metamorphic zoning marked by staurolite or sillimanite peak metamorphic conditions. Regarding the deformations of the Staterian supracrustal rocks, second and third phases were the most important, diagnosed as having developed in a progressive tectonic process. In the general, more vigorous conditions of PT are related to the interval tardi - phase 2 early-phase 3, whose radiometric ages and regional structuring indicators places it in the Brasiliano/Pan-African Cycle. In the Staterian geodynamic setting of Brazilian Platform , these sequences are correlated to the lower Espinhaço Supergroup (p.ex., Rio dos Remédios and Paraguaçu groups, a paleproterozoic rift system in the São Francisco Craton), the Araí and Serra da Mesa groups (north of Goiás, in the so -called Goiás Central Massif), and the Uatumã Group (in the Amazonian Craton). Granitic ( augen gneisses) plutonics are also known from these areas, as for example the A-type granites intrusive in the Araí and Serra da Mesa groups, dated at 1.77 Ga. Gravimetric and geological data place the limits of the Jaguaribeano System (terranes) along the Senador Pompeu Shear Zone (western border) and the Portalegre- Farias Brito shear zone (eastern and southern). However, the same data area not conclusive as regards the interpretation of those structures as suture of the terrane docking process. The main features of those shear zones and of involved lothological associations, appear to favour an intracontinental transpressional -transcurrent regime, during Neoproterozoic-Cambrian times, marking discontinuities along which different crustal blocks were laterally dispersed. Inside of this orogenic system and according to the magnetic data (total field map), the most important terrane boundary appears to be the Jaguaribe shear zone. The geochronological data, on some tectonostratigraphic associations (partly represented by the Ceará and Jucurutu groups), still at a preliminary level, besides the lack of granitic zonation and other petrotectonic criteria, do not allow to propose tectonic terrane assembly diagrams for the studied area

Estruturação da seqüência vulcano-sedimentar Rio Mata Cavalo (Morro do Pilar, MG, Brasil) baseada na análise qualitativa de dados geofísicos

Geofísica terrestre (magnetometria e radiometria) foi utilizada como ferramenta de apoio ao mapeamento geológico em uma área de pesquisa mineral da Companhia Mineradora de Minas Gerais (COMIG), denominada Alvo Bueiro, localizada a sudeste da cidade de Morro do Pilar, na Serra do Espinhaço, Estado de Minas Gerais. A integração de informações de geologia de superfície com os dados geofísicos correspondentes permitiu definir quatro zonas: A, B, C e D. A Zona A, caracterizada por altos valores de susceptibilidade magnética e baixos valores de radiometria, é composta por itabiritos do Grupo Serra da Serpentina. A Zona B, pertencente ao mesmo grupo, é constituída por filitos cinza e metassiltitos e mostra baixa susceptibilidade magnética; interrupções nas linhas de contorno foram interpretadas como decorrentes de falhas de empurrão. A Zona C, relacionada à Seqüência Vulcano-Sedimentar Rio Mata Cavalo, é caracterizada por uma expressiva anomalia do campo magnético total em xistos máficos e ultramáficos com lentes de formações ferríferas e filitos carbonosos negros; esta zona hospeda as mais importantes anomalias geoquímicas de ouro conhecidas na área em estudo. A Zona D, correspondente a ortognaisses cisalhados do Complexo Dona Rita, mostra os mais elevados valores de radiometria do Alvo Bueiro e baixas respostas magnéticas.

Mapeamento do contorno estrutural do embasamento da bacia sedimentar de Curitiba - PR

The sedimentary Curitiba basin is located in the Central-Southern part of the first Parananense plateau, and comprises Curitiba (PR), and part of the neighbour Municipalities (fig.1). It is supposed to be of Plio-Pleistocene age. It has a shallow sedimentary fulfillment, represented by the Guabirotuba formation (BIGARELLA and SALAMUNI, 1962) which is dristributed over a large area of about 3.000km2. The internal geometry, not entirely known yet, is actually object of detailed research, that shows its geological evolution to Cenozoic tectonic movements. For the purpose of this study the definition of the structural contour of the basement and their depo-centers is fundamental. This paper presents the results of the integration of surface and subsurface data, processed by statistical methods, which allowed a more precise definition of the morphostructural framework of the basement. For the analysis of the geological spacial data, specific softwares were used for statistical processing for trend surfaces analysis. The data used in this study are of following types: a) drilling logs for ground water; b) description of surface points of geological maps (CRPM, 1977); c) description of points of geotechnical drillings and down geological survey. The data of 223 drilling logs for ground water were selected out of 770 wells. The description files of 700 outcrops, as well as planialtimetric field data, were used for the localization of the basement outcrop. Thus, a matrix with five columns was set up: utm E-W (x) and utm N-S (y); surface altitude (z); altimetric cote of the contact between sedimentary rocks and the basement (k); isopachs (l). For the study of the basement limits, the analysis of surface trends of 2(nd) and 3(rd) degree polinomial for the altimetric data (figs. 2 and 3) were used. For the residuals the method of the inverse of the square of the distance (fig.4) was used. The adjustments and the explanations of the surfaces were made with the aid of multiple linear regressions. The analysis of 3rd degree polinomial trend surface (fig.3) confirmed that the basement tends to be more exposed towards NNW-SSE explaining better the data trend through an ellipse, which striking NE-SW and dipping SW axis coincides with the trough of the basin observed in the trending surface of the basement. The performed analysis and the respective images offer a good degree of certainty of the geometric model of the Curitiba Basin and of the morphostructure of its basement. The surface trend allows to sketch with a greater degree of confidence the structural contour of the topgraphic surface (figs. 5 and 6) and of the basement (figs. 7 and 8), as well as the delimitation of intermediate structural heights, which were responsible for isolated and assymmetric depocenters. These details are shown in the map of figures 9 and 10. Thus, the Curitiba Basin is made up by a structural trough stretching NE-SW, with maximum preserved depths of about 80m, which are separated by heights and depocenters striking NW-SE (fig. 11). These structural features seems to have been controlled by tectonic reactivation during the Tertiary (HASUI, 1990) and which younger dissection was conditioned by neotectonic processes (SALAMUNI and EBERT, 1994).

Diques clásticos na formação corumbataí (p) no nordeste da bacia do paraná, SP: Análise sistemática e significações estratigráficas, sedimentológicas e tectônicas

This paper aims to present the results of systematic survey on clastic dykes in the Corumbataí Formation (Permian), in the northeast region of the State of São Paulo. Besides this, the paper analyses genetic aspects of those features as well as their stratigraphic and sedimentologic implications in terms of geologic evolution of the northeastern Paraná Sedimentary Basin during Permian times. The field works had been developed in 3 main Corumbataí Formation outcrops (2 road cuts and a quarry) supposed to show the most important clastic dikes occurrences in the studied area. Basically, the sedimentary intrusions are formed by fine sand or silt size particles and had penetrated host rocks as near-vertical, centimeter thick, dykes (most common form) or as horizontal sheets, forming clastic sills (subsidiary form), both with variable geometric forms and dimensions. A lot of dyke walls show undulations suggesting pre-diagenetic clastic intrusions, probably near the ancient depositional surface. Almost all intrusions occur in the superior third portion of the Corumbataí Formation and some similar features seem to appear in the adjoining superposed Pirambóia Formation base. In this article the authors defend a seismic origin hypothesis for the clastic intrusions. It is important to mention that clastic intrusions tend to occur linked to expressive seismic events, with magnitude upper to 5. The analysis of isopach maps of the Permian and Mesozoic units of the Paraná Sedimentary Basin in the study area suggests a depositional system changing, from epicontinental sea conditions to shallow platform and, finally, to coastal deserts. Probably, this environmental change was driven by regional uplift accompanied by seismic events. It is possible that ancient seismicity triggered liquefaction processes and the resulting clastic intrusions. In this sense, those clastic features might be properly namedseismites.

Influência do arcabouço hidroestratigráfico nas ocorrências de arsênio em águas subterrâneas ao longo do corredor termal do rio Uruguai (Argentina - Brasil - Uruguai)

The Thermal Corridor of Uruguay River is located in the triple border of Argentine, Brazil and Uruguay, and shows an intense economic thermal tourism activity, mainly based on groundwaters from Guarani Aquifer System (GAS). Recent studies have pointed out the occurrence of high concentrations of arsenic (>10 μg/L) in GAS groundwater in this area. The complex geological and hydrogeological framework in the area is associated to the Paraná Basin geological evolution south of the Assuncion-Rio Grande Arch; it encompass paleozoic marine sequences and continental sequences permian/eotriassic to mesozoic in age, which are covered by basaltic lavas of Serra Geral Formation. Iron oxide coatings have been described in sandstones of Buena Vista and Sanga do Cabral formations, which underlie GAS units. Arsenic occurrence is associated to sodium bicarbonate groundwater with pH values over 8.0. Arsenic is released to groundwater by desorption from iron oxides/hydroxides, as result of the higher pH of these waters, indicating that arsenic is released from the units that underlie GAS units. Increase in chromium and uranium concentrations are also related to high pH groundwaters, thus indicating special care on using groundwater from this region.

Estimativa de parâmetros estruturais de áreas de produção de eucalipto através de imagens de satélite na região de Botucatu /SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA