La evaluación social de proyectos y la estimación del impacto ambiental: un puente teórico necesario pero complicado = Social project appraisal and environmental impact assessment: a necessary but complicated theoretical bridge

Incluye Bibliografía

Perú 1968-1977: la política económica en un proceso de cambio global

Incluye Bibliografía

Sistemas políticos, estrategias de desarrollo, heterogeneidad estructural y transición demográfica: un intento de interpretación global

Incluye Bibliografía

Inserción global, desarticulación y competitividad en el sector electromecánico de México: un análisis estructural

En este artículo se analiza el funcionamiento dual del sector electromecánico mexicano en el período 1994-2008, diferenciando del resto las actividades globalizadas. Al estimar la productividad laboral de 52 clases industriales, se halla un crecimiento de la heterogeneidad estructural sobre todo en el lapso 1994-2001, concomitante de la progresiva concentración de las mejoras técnicas y organizativas en un número reducido de empresas filiales de transnacionales del ensamblaje automotriz. Otro resultado obtenido mediante la utilización de una técnica diferencial-estructural es la ausencia de un cambio estructural significativo. Finalmente, la aplicación de una extensión de la metodología para evaluar la competitividad -elaborada por la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL)- a una segunda base de datos en que se reclasifican 1.345 productos del comercio exterior, permite contrastar estas transformaciones con el dinamismo de las redes globales de producción en que se insertan las empresas líderes del sector en México.

Development of a modelling framework in support of an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change in the Caribbean: the ECLAC – CIAM Model

The Caribbean region remains highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In order to assess the social and economic consequences of climate change for the region, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean( ECLAC) has developed a model for this purpose. The model is referred to as the Climate Impact Assessment Model (ECLAC-CIAM) and is a tool that can simultaneously assess multiple sectoral climate impacts specific to the Caribbean as a whole and for individual countries. To achieve this goal, an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) with a Computable General Equilibrium Core was developed comprising of three modules to be executed sequentially. The first of these modules defines the type and magnitude of economic shocks on the basis of a climate change scenario, the second module is a global Computable General Equilibrium model with a special regional and industrial classification and the third module processes the output of the CGE model to get more disaggregated results. The model has the potential to produce several economic estimates but the current default results include percentage change in real national income for individual Caribbean states which provides a simple measure of welfare impacts. With some modifications, the model can also be used to consider the effects of single sectoral shocks such as (Land, Labour, Capital and Tourism) on the percentage change in real national income. Ultimately, the model is envisioned as an evolving tool for assessing the impact of climate change in the Caribbean and as a guide to policy responses with respect to adaptation strategies.

An assessment of global economic models for climate change

The project comprises three phases of which Phase I would be implemented over the period September to December 2008. The major objectives of Phase I are, firstly, to establish the scope and feasibility of carrying out a study on the costs/benefits of taking action on climate change adaptation and cost effectiveness of mitigation in the Caribbean compared to a “business as usual” scenario, and secondly, to support initial actions to alert policymakers and key influencing constituencies to the urgency of this challenge.

Geografía del transporte de carga: evolución y desafíos en un contexto global cambiante

Esta serie presenta, principalmente, los cambios y desafíos que emergen de una geografía cambiante de transporte internacional, a la vez que muestra e interpreta estos cambios desde un punto de vista sistémico, con el fin de entender de forma más profunda el fenómeno del cambio estructural en la industria del transporte internacional y la evolución geográfica y estructural del transporte internacional. El objetivo principal es analizar la evolución del cambio en el patrón de comercio y el transporte internacional en América Latina y explicar los conductores y nuevos desafíos en el desarrollo de infraestructuras y servicios de transporte.

Adaptação transcultural do Preschool Language Assessment Instrument (PLAI-2) em falantes do português brasileiro com desenvolvimento típico de linguagem

Pós-graduação em Fonoaudiologia - FFC

Rapid Assessment of Seed Removal and Frugivore Activity as a Tool for Monitoring the Health Status of Tropical Forests

Ecological processes in tropical forests are being affected at unprecedented rates by human activities. Yet, the continuity of ecological functions like seed dispersal is crucial for forest regeneration. It thus becomes increasingly urgent to be able to rapidly assess the health status of these processes in order to take appropriate management measures. We tested a method to rapidly evaluate seed removal rates on two animal-dispersed tree species, Virola kwatae and V.michelii (Myristicaceae), at three sites in French Guiana with increasing levels of anthropogenic disturbance. We counted fallen fruits, fruit valves, and seeds of each focal fruiting tree in a single 1m2 quadrat, and calculated two indices: the proportion of seeds removed and the proportion of fruits opened by mammals. They both provide an indirect and rapid assessment of frugivore activity. Our results showed a significant decrease in the proportion of removed seeds (16%) and fruits opened (19%) at the most impacted site in comparison with the other two sites (79% for seeds, 60% and 35% for fruits). This testifies to an increased impoverishment of the primate and toucan communities at the disturbed sites. This standardized protocol provides fast information about the health status of the community of seed dispersers and predators and of their seed removal services. It is time- and cost-effective and is not species-specific, allowing comparisons among sites or over time. We suggest using it with the pantropical Myristicaceae and any other capsule-producing family to rapidly assess the health status of seed removal processes across the tropics.

Risk Assessment of the Introduction of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza as a Tool to be Applied in Prevention Strategy Plan

Risks of the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 through migratory birds to the main wintering site for wild birds in southern Brazil and its consequences were assessed. Likelihoods were estimated by a qualitative scale ranging from negligible to high. Northern migrants that breed in Alaska and regularly migrate to South America (primary Charadriiformes) can have contact with birds from affected areas in Asia. The likelihood of the introduction of HPAI H5N1 through migratory birds was found to be very low as it is a probability conditioned to successful transmission in breeding areas and the probabilities of an infected bird migrating and shedding the virus as far as southern Brazil. The probability of wild species becoming exposed to H5N1-infected birds is high as they nest with northern migrants from Alaska, whereas for backyard poultry it is moderate to high depending on proximity to wetlands and the presence of species that could increase the likelihood of contact with wild birds such as domestic duck. The magnitude of the biological and economic consequences of successful transmission to poultry or wild birds would be low to severe depending on the probability of the occurrence of outbreak scenarios described. As a result, the risk estimate is greater than negligible, and HPAI H5N1 prevention strategy in the region should always be carefully considered by the veterinary services in Brazil.

Trends, drivers and impacts of changes in swidden cultivation in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers: A global assessment

This meta-analysis of land-cover transformations of the past 10-15 years in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers world-wide shows that swidden agriculture decreases in landscapes with access to local, national and international markets that encourage cattle production and cash cropping, including biofuels. Conservation policies and practices also accelerate changes in swidden by restricting forest clearing and encouraging commercial agriculture. However, swidden remains important in many frontier areas where farmers have unequal or insecure access to investment and market opportunities, or where multi-functionality of land uses has been preserved as a strategy to adapt to current ecological, economic and political circumstances. In some areas swidden remains important simply because intensification is not a viable choice, for example when population densities and/or food market demands are low. The transformation of swidden landscapes into more intensive land uses has generally increased household incomes, but has also led to negative effects on the social and human capital of local communities to varying degrees. From an environmental perspective, the transition from swidden to other land uses often contributes to permanent deforestation, loss of biodiversity, increased weed pressure, declines in soil fertility, and accelerated soil erosion. Our prognosis is that, despite the global trend towards land use intensification, in many areas swidden will remain part of rural landscapes as the safety component of diversified systems, particularly in response to risks and uncertainties associated with more intensive land use systems. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.